I think you’re correct.Originally Posted by Bill Cody
As far as being down on Edmunds, he turns my stomach every time I see him run into the back of the D-line or is chasing the runner like a blind man try to find his dog! I can’t take it anymore!
I think you’re correct.
As far as being down on Edmunds, he turns my stomach every time I see him run into the back of the D-line or is chasing the runner like a blind man try to find his dog! I can’t take it anymore!
Last edited by kgun12; 02-17-2023 at 10:02 AM.
Retired Air Traffic Controller
USAF VETERAN
DAV
Who did we draft with the pick?
28**60**128**133**144**160**163**200**204**248
Willis “Lord of the River Dance” McGahee
kgun12 (02-17-2023)
You're an animal.
That means a player can solicit offer sheets from other clubs. The tag guarantees 2 1st round picks if the player signs an offer sheet and his present team does not match. But as I said the team tagging a player can negotiate a lower price for a trade.No I did not what does non-exclusive mean then?
I was stuck on the two first rounders part of it.
How bad does anybody want him I guess becomes the question.
I would expect it to be pretty high.
McGahee was a very good player but IMO that was the beginning of the end for Tom Donahoe. He needed to rebuild the offensive line which was dismal and instead went for the shiny object.
Mace (03-21-2023)
This and the fact that the first round pick should contribute from the first day or at least be capable to contribute from day one!
Bill Cody (02-17-2023)
Odds of a trade up - 1 in 10. Odds of standing pat - 5 in 10. Odds of a trade down - 4 in 10. I base that on the fact that Buffalo has some needs to address and only 6 picks in the draft. Depending on how the first round falls, there may not be great value at the positions where Buffalo has a need. That all translates in my mind to a very small chance of a trade up and a decent chance to trade down, though a trade down requires a willing partner and good value in return.
I've made up my mind. Don't confuse me with the facts.
I'm the most reasonable poster here. If you don't agree, I'll be forced to have a hissy fit.
kgun12 (02-17-2023)
Very good I place the odds of trade up 3 in 10.
We tend to get ants in our pants.
The last first round pick that did actually "contribute from the first day” was Tremaine Edmunds (91.32% of first year snap count). Tre’ White (98.65% of first year snap count) was the one previous.
No other first round pick of the Bills have met this criteria since then.
Josh Allen - 67.89%
Ed Oliver - 53.67%
Greg Rousseau - 49.26%
Kaiir Elam - 45.39%
That tells you how bad our scouts are!
No, it doesn’t....that’s silly.
It goes more to the cautious way McDermott brings along rookies and young players.
I objected to this premise in such that it assumes a reality that the facts do not support.
It has been obvious that McDermott hesitates to rely on rookies and young players and would rather bring them slowly until he can trust them. Some time ago, I did some light research to see how his method compared to other NFL coaches.
A cursory look told me that most NFL coaches act the same way.
The assumption that "first round pick should contribute from the first day” (although the idea of “...or at least be capable to contribute from day one!” is a different subject as “capable” to contribute is a totally different metric) is refuted by the observation of snap count for rookies as I detailed for the Bills recent picks.
Unfortunately, your first reaction is to criticize the Bills scouts, which I think is rather silly. I thought so from my previous experience with the light research I did, as I almost always have some kind of supporting evidence when I write almost any opinion....I don’t just pull it out of my butt.
The idea that the recent Bills rookie’s snap counts is an indication of “how bad our scouts are” would assume that other teams have a better record in the same criteria.
As usual, this led me to even more detailed research so I can form an intelligent, informed opinion. And, as I suspected (and from my earlier light research) the facts do not support the idea of "how bad our scouts are”
I did two fact finding searches...one, the snap count for all 1st round picks for 2022, and to observe several years of the same, the six year record for the Bills compared to the two Super Bowl team this year.
Here are the snap counts for every 2022 1st round pick....
Name POS Team RND PK Snap Count Travon Walker DE Jacksonville 1 1 67.76% Aidan Hutchinson
DE Detroit 1 2 84.33% Derek Stingley Jr. CB Houston 1 3 51.19% Ahmad Gardner CB NY Jets 1 4 97.98% Kayvon Thibodeaux DE NY Giants 1 5 65.43% Ikem Ekwonu OT Carolina 1 6 100.00% Evan Neal OT NY Giants 1 7 64.93% Drake London WR Atlanta 1 8 77.93% Charles Cross OT Seattle 1 9 99.82% Garrett Wilson WR NY Jets 1 10 79.35% Chris Olave WR New Orleans 1 11 57.70% Jameson Williams WR Detroit 1 12 40.19% Jordan Davis DT Philadelphia 1 13 20.25% Kyle Hamilton S Baltimore 1 14 50.14% Kenyon Green OG Houston 1 15 77.52% Jahan Dotson WR Washington 1 16 54.71% Zion Johnson OG LA Chargers 1 17 99.33% Treylon Burks WR Tenneesee 1 18 37.97% Trevor Penning OT New Orleans 1 19 11.79% Kenny Pickett QB Pittsburgh 1 20 69.31% Trent McDuffie CB Kansas City 1 21 59.41% Quay Walker
ILB Green Bay 1 22 81.90% Kaiir Elam CB Buffalo 1 23 45.39% OT Dallas 1 24 98.45% Tyler Linderbaum C Baltimore 1 25 99.82% Jermaine Johnson II DE NY Jets 1 26 27.42% Devin Lloyd ILB Jacksonville 1 27 79.62% Devonte Wyatt DT Green Bay 1 28 21.68% Cole Strange OG New England 1 29 93.54% George Karlaftis DE Kansas City 1 30 63.59% Daxton Hill S Cincinnatti 1 31 12.64% S Minnesota 1 32 0.17%
Here are the snap counts for each of the three teams, Bills, KC and Philly for the past six seasons. Since all three teams did not have a 1st round pick in every year, I included the first pick each team had in addition to their multiple first round picks present....
Name POS Team RND PK Snap Count 2022 Trent McDuffie CB Kansas City 1 21 59.41% 2022 George Karlaftis DE Kansas City 1 30 63.59% 2021 Nick Bolton LB Kansas City 2 58 57.76% 2020 Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB Kansas City 1 32 49.18% 2019 Mecole Hardman WR Kansas City 2 56 44.86% 2018 Breeland Speaks LB Kansas City 2 46 40.41% 2017 Patrick Mahomes QB Kansas City 1 10 6.04% 2022 Jordan Davis DT Philadelphia 1 13 20.25% 2021 DeVonta Smith WR Philadelphia 1 10 81.79% 2020 Jalen Reagor WR Philadelphia 1 21 45.22% 2019 Andre Dillard T Philadelphia 1 22 28.95% 2018 Dallas Goedert TE Philadelphia 2 49 47.89% 2017 Derek Barnett DE Philadelphia 1 14 41.47% 2022 Kaiir Elam CB Buffalo 1 23 45.39% 2021 Greg Rousseau DE Buffalo 1 30 49.26% 2020 AJ Epenesa DE Buffalo 2 54 27.17% 2019 Ed Oliver DT Buffalo 1 9 53.67% 2018 Josh Allen QB Buffalo 1 7 67.89% 2018 Tremaine Edmunds LB Buffalo 1 16 91.32% 2017 Tre'Davious White CB Buffalo 1 27 98.65%
What the facts show is that the Bills are not necessarily out of the mainstream of the percentage of snap counts their draft picks (premium picks) had their first season which would indicate if they “contribute(d) from day one”....and when compared to KC and Philly, the average percentage of snap count for the players listed is much higher.
KC’s average is 45.89%....Philly is 44.26% and Buffalo is 61.91%
The Bills avg. is higher because of the two players I mentioned above....Tre’ White and Edmunds who both played an unusually high amount their rookie years. If I take them out, the avg. for the remaining Bills is 48.68%.
KC is skewed lower because they sat Mahomes his rookie year and the Bills were forced (outside their plans going into the 2018 season) to play Allen. If I exclude Mahomes, KC’s avg is 52.54%.
Basically, there is NO indication that Buffalo’s scouts are “bad” based on percentage of snap counts for 1st picks their rookie year.
Other interesting observations can be made as well by looking at the 2022 1st round list.
Players selected in the top 10, generally play more (duh....not a surprise). O-linemen selected in the first round play much more than other positions. Among 2022 1st round picks, only SEVEN players had snap count above 90%. SIX of those were O-linemen. Only ONE was another position....Sauce Gardner, CB.
Buffalo, in the past seven drafts have had two players that had more than 90% of the snap their rookie year....Tre’ White and Edmunds.
Which goes to their excellence in “contributing from the first day”.....that, in Edmunds case, refutes the idea of some posters that Edmunds is not that good.
The other observations is that the Bills have ignored the offensive side of the ball in their first picks....except for Josh Allen.
Sure looks like THIS is the year to break that chain.
Yes it does!
I would be happy with any of these but Robinson.
https://buffalowdown.com/2023/02/21/...023-nfl-draft/
Lets’ go over them, shall we....
O’Cyrus Torrence - OG - I agree 100%. If he’s there at #27, he should be a strong consideration for the Bills first round pick. My searing question is what do you do if the best OG in the draft is gone???
Reaching for an OG just to pick a OG is stupid. In Scout’s Inc. 2022 draft player rankings, Torrence is the highest ranked OG at #28 overall. A perfect value for the Bills #27 slot. The next OG ranked is Luke Wyler, Ohio, at #68. Next is Emil Eklyor, USC at #91....and down from there.
If Torrence is not available, the Bills would be much better served by waiting until the third round for an OG.
Broderick Jones T, Georgia - another great pick, especially if (as the article points out) if he does not displace Brown, he could move to OG. The problem is with the realty that OT is one of the most prized draft values, every mock draft I have seen has him long gone by #27. The latest I’ve seen him mocked is #17. There is much less of a chance that he drops into the Bills lap than Robinson.
Brian Branch - S, Alabama. Another great pick. But, just like Jones, the likelihood he makes it past #20 is slim at best.
Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU - Another great pick. But, just like Branch and Jones, he’s not going to be there for the Bills at #27. Scouts Inc. has him the highest ranked WR in this draft class at #12. DB, OT & WR are the most desirable drafts picks (besides QB) in today’s NFL. The chances that the Bills have to get Johnston are between slim and none.
And finally, Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas. Ranked #9 overalll by Scout’s Inc. he is, by far, one of the best quality offensive weapons available in this draft. Bar none. Highest ranked offensive weapon (besides QB).
The difference, is that the relative value placed on RB recently, means there is a chance he may fall to the late first round. I, for one, do not think it’s possible, but, history tells us that it’s much more likely that a blue chip RB falls in the first round as compared to WR, OT and DB.
What they wrote about him is pretty spot on....
When looking back at this draft class a few years from now there is a strong argument to be made that Bijan Robinson is the best player and could be the best running back in the NFL. However, he could slip to the Buffalo Bills because the running back position has been devalued over the past few seasons and this year’s class of running backs might be one of the deepest in recent memory.
This shouldn’t stop the Buffalo Bills from drafting Bijan Robinson though in the first round if he is still available when they are on the clock.
The former Texas running back is a complete, three-down running back that really doesn’t have a glaring weakness. He is a powerful running back that can make runs between the tackles but has the speed to get outside and is someone that could handle 250+ carries in a season. Johnson also is an effective pass catcher out of the backfield and does a good job in pass protection picking up the blitz.
While the Buffalo Bills do have James Cook, and he certainly could handle the responsibilities as a featured running back if paired with a running back to handle short-yardage situations, Bijan Robinson has a chance to be the best running back in the league and that might be too tough to pass up.
In summary, you are hanging on to an almost hopeless wish that three of the four players you cherish are going to be within the Bills reach. I think that’s fools gold. That’s your business. I want what will make the Bills better. Passing on Robinson if none of the four are available will not make the Bills better.
But, yeah, I agree with you that if a quality prospect at WR, OT or DB, that is first round worthy, the Bills should not hesitate to grab him.
OG is in the same situation, but there is only ONE player in the the 2023 class that is first round worthy (and some experts think that is still a stretch) where they have only 19 players that they deem worthy of a 1st round ick, and, interestingly, none of the five payers mentions are on that list....EXCEPT Bijan Robinson.
My premise is pretty simple....“...if the highly regarded prospects in the positions that may (or may not be, we do not know) targeted by the Bills in this draft at WR, OG and S....are GONE by the time #27 comes around, BUT, the blue chip, rare talent RB IS available, to reject selecting him out of hand is dumb.”
If you have a more narrow opinion, that’s your problem.
Although, depending on what happens in FA (the Bills HAVE to add RB’s to the roster since only two are under contract, and Hines’ cap cost is WAY out of line, so it is questionable if he stays on) if all the four players that pass your approval are not available at #27, but Robinson IS, trading back would be certainly prudent.
But, I also believe that adding a player of Robinsons’ caliber could make the Bills offense almost unstoppable, would greatly enhance the passing game preventing defenses from two high safety that takes away Josh’s greatest strength, takes the pressure off Josh Allen to be superman to win games, and certainly reduces his rushing attempts that are going to land him on injured reserve sooner or later.
The Bills have been searching for an answer at RB since they drafted Allen. McDermott (and almost everyone else) is hoping for a more consistent rushing threat from RB’s instead of Josh Allen. Passing on Robinson out of hand (if by some miracle he is still there at #27) would be opposite of those goals.
WR Josh Downs, Zay Flowers or Jalen Hyatt.
S Brian Branch or Antonio Johnson.
I'd even be willing to reach for LBer Jack Campbell if they want him bad enough.
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Mace (03-22-2023)
It's time to draft players to the field of play.
No projects we need immediate participation.
kgun12 (03-09-2023)
Was cleaning out the attic this morning. Found the 1982 NFL Draft Notebook by Palmer Hughes. I guess I've been following the draft a while. :-)
Naturally, we picked the wrong guy at the top. WR Perry Tuttle. :-)
Anonymity is an abused privilege, abused most by people who mistake vitriol for wisdom and cynicism for wit
kgun12 (03-09-2023),Mace (03-21-2023),POTLAND PSILBYLO (03-09-2023)
None of those players would even come close to providing the immediate impact that Robinson would...enough to be the one first year player that could provide the Bills with a SB win THIS season....especially the WR’s.
WR’s are overvalued in today’s NFL and RB are undervalued. Which means teams pay too much in draft capital on WR when they elevate second round talent and waste first round picks on them if the pick is in the later parts of round 1.
In 2022, what was by all accounts a very good WR year, all six WR’s picked in the first round were #18 and higher. Several WR’s that had pretty good rookie years lasted until the 2nd and 3rd round. None of those taken after #18 were game changers.
Same thing in 2021. The few at the very top, #5 Ja'Marr Chase, #6 Jalen Waddle & #10 DeVonta Smith were the only ones worth a first round pick.
This year, Robinson is just a good a talent as those WR’s chosen at the top of the first round. He is seen as being the best offensive skill player in this draft (besides QB). He should go within the top 10 picks.
If he happens to drop to #27 (are even #25) the Bills would be idiots to nor strongly consider picking him. He would make the Bills ooffcnes almost unstoppable.
Besides the faulty that several of those players could be had in the second round. Especially Jack Campbell, who is nothing more than a solid prospect and NOT first round material at all. Reaching for him would be dumb.
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