Chad Reuter, Draft Analyst at NFL.com, published this interesting story today....
2023 NFL Draft: Five Round 1 trades that would make sense
No one has any idea how the draft will exactly play out (and no one ever does) and no one has any idea exactly what Brandon Beane will do.
Being light on his feet and being prepared to make split second decisions (and trades) is the mantra of draft day.
No one was surprised that the Bills selected a CB in the 1st round last year, but it was a mild surprise that it was Elam (who was not ranked that highly, #47 overall according to Scout’s Inc., and the #6 ranked CB) and even more of a surprise that he had to trade up to get him.
Judging how Elam struggled his rookie season, the ranking was more accurate (so far) than the Bills decision to take him at #23.
Certainly, when compared to the last time the Bills used a first-round choice on a CB, Tre’ White at #27 in 2017, as White immediately took over the #1 CB position (98.65% of defensive snap counts as compared to Elam’s 45.39%) and played at an extremely high level from day one.
Drafting is not a science. As
Bill Barnwell opined…
“The most important element of the
NFL draft is picking the right players. The
hardest part of the NFL draft is picking the right players.
Study after
study suggest the ability to pick prospects is overwhelmed by
randomness and variance.”
What is undeniable about mock drafts, and “big boards” is that they may not get every pick to every team perfectly (that is impossible) but they are extremely close to predicting what players are most likely to go in the first round….especially in the top half of the first round.
What really matters is what Beane’s big board looks like, and that we will never see.
Draft day is a lot of fun for any NFL fan.