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Well...he does have some “worry” after the 2024 season. But not much.
2023 is the last year of any guaranteed salary....$1.95M.
Next season his cap number explodes to $14.4M, but there would be a $11.7M dead cap hit if released....and only a $2.7M cap savings. 2025 is more problematic as his cap hit increases to $15.4M (barring any restructure) with an even split between dead cap and cap saving...both around $7.8M.
With Kincaid being a first round pick, the Bills are assured cost controlled contract for at least four years. Which happens to coincide with Knox’s last contract year of 2026....when he will be 30 years old.
Kincaid is not a threat to Knox in terms of how they play the position. We already know that.
What is exciting is how much Kincaid opens up the offense, hopefully plugging the huge hole of lack of the passing game in the middle of the field. McKenzie was supposed to be the answer, but, sadly he was not up to the task.
The most interesting stat (from the Buffalo News article) was the low amount of 12 personnel the Bills employees last season....4%. As compared to....
Copying KC is welcome news. Kincaid seems to have the tools to make this a real threat.
He got $31M guaranteed, which is generational wealth. If the Bills cut him after the 2024 season, someone else will give him a good salary.
He got $31M guaranteed, which is generational wealth. If the Bills cut him after the 2024 season, someone else will give him a good salary.
To be accurate, Knox got $19.92M in “fully guaranteed” money. The difference between “guaranteed” and “fully guaranteed” are not trivial. A primer on the subject can be found here.
$17.2M of that “fully guaranteed” money was paid on the day he signed the contract. It’s prorated, for cap purposes over five years....but it’s all in his pocket. The rest come with roster bonuses, workout bonuses and so on.
With that said, $19.92M is “generational wealth” as well. And he is going to get paid a lot more than $19.92M over the life of the contract. But that’s not the issue here.
I am not suggesting in any way, shape or form that there is any chance that Knox is going anywhere after the 2024 season. I am not suggesting that there is any reasonable chance that he is going anywhere after the 2025 season either. But the numbers do change quite bit that make that a viable possibility if conditions warrant.
Something is going to have to give after 2023 and beyond as his cap hit explodes.....$14.4M for 2024, $15.4M for 2025 and $15.9M for 2026, the last year of his contract, which is when he will be 30 years old, and the possibility of Kincaid’s extension will have to be decided.
If things go well, Kincaid's 5th year option will be picked up, probably at a cost of well over $10M....maybe a lot more. The calculations for fifth year options are just as complicated as most of the NFL contract ins and outs.
Nominally, (without adjustments upwards based on playing time, being named to the Pro Bowl or multiple Pro Bowls) the basic amount is calculated by the “average of the 3rd to 25th highest paid salaries at their position over the previous five season” (which is why I have posted a table with the Bills’ roster and where they rank in AVG/Y salary for each position...these things matter) the fully guaranteed 2027 5th year option for Kincaid could easily be around $12-$15M.
Today, even with Kincaid on a cost controlled rookie contract, the AVG/Y rank for these two TE’s is #7 & #28. That is the highest for any two positions on the Bills, equaling CB, where Tre’ White and Taron Johnson’s AVG/Y are the same #7 & #28.
I am 100% supportive of the Bills selection of Kincaid. The offense is in critical need for more offensive weapons and Kincaid appears to bring that to the team.
But, the cost of two highly paid TE’s cannot be ignored. It is extremely rare that any team will have two players in the same position paid within the top 10 in AVG/Y for that position. Just something to keep an eye on going forward. Along with the WR position.
He has the potential to be far better. Plus he'll be cheaper.
100%
“It breaks your heart when someone leaves and you don’t know why.”
"It may be raining but there's a rainbow above you" Former President Donald Trump early Thursday touted the results of a new NPR/PBSNewsHour/Marist pollshowing him ahead of President Joe Biden by 8 percentage points among independents.
The #Bills relied heavily on analytics in drafting TE Dalton Kincaid. Senior Director of Football Research Dennis Lock believes Kincaid has the best hands of any player at any position in the draft in the last EIGHT seasons. #BillsMafiapic.twitter.com/ZqpKJCQq8C
Good to hear that Knox sounds excited. If he is fully engaged, this will work out.
I would be excited as hell if I had Kincaid on the field when I was on it.
There's no limit to the havoc those two will provide.
It's called T.E.A.M.
“It breaks your heart when someone leaves and you don’t know why.”
"It may be raining but there's a rainbow above you" Former President Donald Trump early Thursday touted the results of a new NPR/PBSNewsHour/Marist pollshowing him ahead of President Joe Biden by 8 percentage points among independents.
Sounds like a lot of the offense is hinged on one player... that's not ideal. It would be nice to find another easy button option at WR as insurance.
He opens things up for everybody else.
There will be easy button options all over the place.
Weapons weapons weapons ain't it great!!!!!
“It breaks your heart when someone leaves and you don’t know why.”
"It may be raining but there's a rainbow above you" Former President Donald Trump early Thursday touted the results of a new NPR/PBSNewsHour/Marist pollshowing him ahead of President Joe Biden by 8 percentage points among independents.
My point is that if Kincaid goes down for any extended period of time, the bills will be right back where they were last year.
We're better with him sure.
“It breaks your heart when someone leaves and you don’t know why.”
"It may be raining but there's a rainbow above you" Former President Donald Trump early Thursday touted the results of a new NPR/PBSNewsHour/Marist pollshowing him ahead of President Joe Biden by 8 percentage points among independents.
“It breaks your heart when someone leaves and you don’t know why.”
"It may be raining but there's a rainbow above you" Former President Donald Trump early Thursday touted the results of a new NPR/PBSNewsHour/Marist pollshowing him ahead of President Joe Biden by 8 percentage points among independents.
Sounds like a lot of the offense is hinged on one player... that's not ideal. It would be nice to find another easy button option at WR as insurance.
Huh??? You are not paying attention. It’s not that the drafting of Kincaid means "a lot of the offense is hinged on one player”, in fact, it’s exactly the OPPOSITE, where the weakness last season was that a lot of the offense hinged on Diggs and, of course Allen.
Any substantive additions to the offense to provide more weapons is a positive. And the Bills had several of those.
Kincaid is not the only new weapon the Bills added. The additions of Damien Harris, Trent Sherfield, Deonte Harty & Justin Shorter are all extremely welcome newcomers to ensure that "a lot of the offense is NOT hinged on one player"
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