Dawson Knox: Teaming me with Dalton Kincaid

[Woodman]

Dawson Knox- Teaming me with Dalton Kincaid will "open up a lot of doors" for Bills offense - ProFootballTalk

The Bills traded up in the first round to take Dalton Kincaid last month and making that kind of move can make other players at the same position feel a bit nervous about their status.
That’s not the case for Buffalo’s top returning tight end, however. Dawson Knox called himself “super excited” about Kincaid joining the team and said he envisions the two players creating matchups that have the offense “drooling before the ball is even snapped” this season.

[Woodman]

“’12’ personnel is going to open up a lot of doors for the offense. . . . We want them in nickel if we want to run and if we bring in two tight ends, sometimes they will have to bring in a base linebacker,” Knox said, via Ryan O’Halloran of the Buffalo News. “That will start to expose some mismatches. It’s going to be really fun.”

[Lexwhat]

I said before, and still believe, that this is Beane's best 1st round draft pick since Josh Allen.

[Woodman]

I said before, and still believe, that this is Beane's best 1st round draft pick since Josh Allen.

Totally agree!

[Goobylal]

Why should Knox feel nervous? He just signed a huge contract last off-season.

[notacon]

Why should Knox feel nervous? He just signed a huge contract last off-season.

Well...he does have some “worry” after the 2024 season. But not much.

2023 is the last year of any guaranteed salary....$1.95M.

Next season his cap number explodes to $14.4M, but there would be a $11.7M dead cap hit if released....and only a $2.7M cap savings. 2025 is more problematic as his cap hit increases to $15.4M (barring any restructure) with an even split between dead cap and cap saving...both around $7.8M.

With Kincaid being a first round pick, the Bills are assured cost controlled contract for at least four years. Which happens to coincide with Knox’s last contract year of 2026....when he will be 30 years old.

Kincaid is not a threat to Knox in terms of how they play the position. We already know that.

What is exciting is how much Kincaid opens up the offense, hopefully plugging the huge hole of lack of the passing game in the middle of the field. McKenzie was supposed to be the answer, but, sadly he was not up to the task.

The most interesting stat (from the Buffalo News article) was the low amount of 12 personnel the Bills employees last season....4%. As compared to....

Per Sharp Football Analysis, the Bills used “12” personnel on 4% of their pass plays, tied for second-lowest in the NFL with the Rams and ahead of only Cincinnati (3%). Baltimore (34%) and Kansas City (29%) led the league.

Copying KC is welcome news. Kincaid seems to have the tools to make this a real threat.

[notacon]

Matt Bowen, ESPN Staff writer, published this take on the “2023 NFL Draft: Best team fits, landing spots for top rookies”....

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills

Drafted: Round 1, No. 25

Why he is a perfect fit: The Bills ran just 32 snaps of 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE) last season, the lowest total in the league. But with Kincaid now in the mix, we should expect a shift in offensive philosophy from coordinator Ken Dorsey. I think Buffalo can create great pass-game matchups with two tight ends in the game. Paired with Dawson Knox, Kincaid can be the move/flex target at the position, with seam-stretching ability and catch-and-run skills.

Kincaid will be an inside, vertical stretch target for quarterback Josh Allen against split-safety coverages, but he can also be deployed as a boundary X receiver to create man-coverage mismatches. Think of him as a versatile pass-catcher who gives the Bills matchup looks against base and sub-personnel packages. He's coming off a productive year with 70 catches, 890 yards and 8 touchdowns.

[Forward_Lateral]

Remember how dangerous The Pats were with Gronk and Hernandez?

If The Bills can even come close to replicating that, look out

[Woodman]

Remember how dangerous The Pats were with Gronk and Hernandez?

If The Bills can even come close to replicating that, look out

Works for me.

[sukie]

It’s all about Mr Dorsey

[swiper]

Remember how dangerous The Pats were with Gronk and Hernandez?

If The Bills can even come close to replicating that, look out

That's exactly what's coming. The Bills are going to be an offensive powerhouse. Can't wait.

[swiper]

It’s all about Mr Dorsey

Why you gotta be a stick in the mud?

[Oaf]

Curious, if we were so into this setup, why not just sign Mike Gesicki in FA?

[Goobylal]

Curious, if we were so into this setup, why not just sign Mike Gesicki in FA?

He has the potential to be far better. Plus he'll be cheaper.

[Forward_Lateral]

Curious, if we were so into this setup, why not just sign Mike Gesicki in FA?

Is this a serious question?

[Goobylal]

Well...he does have some “worry” after the 2024 season. But not much.

2023 is the last year of any guaranteed salary....$1.95M.

Next season his cap number explodes to $14.4M, but there would be a $11.7M dead cap hit if released....and only a $2.7M cap savings. 2025 is more problematic as his cap hit increases to $15.4M (barring any restructure) with an even split between dead cap and cap saving...both around $7.8M.

With Kincaid being a first round pick, the Bills are assured cost controlled contract for at least four years. Which happens to coincide with Knox’s last contract year of 2026....when he will be 30 years old.

Kincaid is not a threat to Knox in terms of how they play the position. We already know that.

What is exciting is how much Kincaid opens up the offense, hopefully plugging the huge hole of lack of the passing game in the middle of the field. McKenzie was supposed to be the answer, but, sadly he was not up to the task.

The most interesting stat (from the Buffalo News article) was the low amount of 12 personnel the Bills employees last season....4%. As compared to....



Copying KC is welcome news. Kincaid seems to have the tools to make this a real threat.

He got $31M guaranteed, which is generational wealth. If the Bills cut him after the 2024 season, someone else will give him a good salary.

[Frenchman]

Anyone would be wanting to work with that of Dawson Knox, class act all the way.

[notacon]

He got $31M guaranteed, which is generational wealth. If the Bills cut him after the 2024 season, someone else will give him a good salary.

To be accurate, Knox got $19.92M in “fully guaranteed” money. The difference between “guaranteed” and “fully guaranteed” are not trivial. A primer on the subject can be found here.


$17.2M of that “fully guaranteed” money was paid on the day he signed the contract. It’s prorated, for cap purposes over five years....but it’s all in his pocket. The rest come with roster bonuses, workout bonuses and so on.

With that said, $19.92M is “generational wealth” as well. And he is going to get paid a lot more than $19.92M over the life of the contract. But that’s not the issue here.

I am not suggesting in any way, shape or form that there is any chance that Knox is going anywhere after the 2024 season. I am not suggesting that there is any reasonable chance that he is going anywhere after the 2025 season either. But the numbers do change quite bit that make that a viable possibility if conditions warrant.

Something is going to have to give after 2023 and beyond as his cap hit explodes.....$14.4M for 2024, $15.4M for 2025 and $15.9M for 2026, the last year of his contract, which is when he will be 30 years old, and the possibility of Kincaid’s extension will have to be decided.

If things go well, Kincaid's 5th year option will be picked up, probably at a cost of well over $10M....maybe a lot more. The calculations for fifth year options are just as complicated as most of the NFL contract ins and outs.

Nominally, (without adjustments upwards based on playing time, being named to the Pro Bowl or multiple Pro Bowls) the basic amount is calculated by the “average of the 3rd to 25th highest paid salaries at their position over the previous five season” (which is why I have posted a table with the Bills’ roster and where they rank in AVG/Y salary for each position...these things matter) the fully guaranteed 2027 5th year option for Kincaid could easily be around $12-$15M.

Today, even with Kincaid on a cost controlled rookie contract, the AVG/Y rank for these two TE’s is #7 & #28. That is the highest for any two positions on the Bills, equaling CB, where Tre’ White and Taron Johnson’s AVG/Y are the same #7 & #28.

I am 100% supportive of the Bills selection of Kincaid. The offense is in critical need for more offensive weapons and Kincaid appears to bring that to the team.

But, the cost of two highly paid TE’s cannot be ignored. It is extremely rare that any team will have two players in the same position paid within the top 10 in AVG/Y for that position. Just something to keep an eye on going forward. Along with the WR position.

[Woodman]

He has the potential to be far better. Plus he'll be cheaper.

100%

[Turf]

I'd say this is newsworthy.

The #Bills relied heavily on analytics in drafting TE Dalton Kincaid. Senior Director of Football Research Dennis Lock believes Kincaid has the best hands of any player at any position in the draft in the last EIGHT seasons. #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/ZqpKJCQq8C

— Air Raid | Buffalo (@TheBillsGuys) May 11, 2023