D Hop released

[notacon]

You still want to get to the playoffs to accomplish a higher goal. You don't prepare to make the playoffs you are preparing for the higher goal. In the Sabres case it is a big deal because the players need playoff experience and it is a step towards the higher goal. In the Bills case it is just more of the same clearly starting to struggle to get over the hump and be better than all comers on game day consistently.

There are a lot of good signs and bad signs. Take them for what you want ... but don't deny some exist and others don't.

I agree 100% that the “higher goal” is always the ultimate goal.

The crapping on getting to the playoffs (especially if done repeatedly) as the equivalent of "a participation trophy” or that "Nobody cares unless it ends with a” SB title....or getting in the playoffs is “scraps” or "simply getting to the playoffs doesn’t mean anything” is what is total rubbish.


Another interesting fact when looking at the data of consecutive playoff seasons is (duh!) the longer the streak the higher the chances to get into and win a Super Bowl.

Nine of the fifteen times a team has had 4 consecutive playoff seasons, they did not even get into the SB. The six times they did get to the SB (every team that did, did so only once) four lost the game and two won.

Four of the thirteen times a team has had 5 consecutive playoff seasons, they did not even get into the SB.

One of the seven times a team has had 6 consecutive playoff seasons, they did not even get into the SB.

One of the two times a team has had 7 consecutive playoff seasons, they did not even get into the SB (Houston Oilers, 1987-1993).


NONE of the six times a team has had 8 consecutive playoff seasons....or the two times a team has had 9 consecutive playoff seasons....or the ONE team that has had 11 consecutive playoff seasons, they did not get into a Super Bowl.


Only one of those teams did not win a Super Bowl during their streak....1979 LA Rams...the one time they got there.



The chart is very interesting....

SB win	SB Loss	Team	Seasons	Start	End
3	2	New England Patriots	11	2009	2019
1	1	Indianapolis Colts	9	2002	2010
1	1	Dallas Cowboys	9	1975	1983
3	0	San Francisco 49ers	8	1983	1990
2	1	Kansas City Chiefs	8	2015
3	0	Pittsburgh Steelers	8	1972	1979
0	1	Los Angeles Rams	8	1973	1980
1	1	Dallas Cowboys	8	1966	1973
1	0	Green Bay Packers	8	2009	2016
1	0	San Francisco 49ers	7	1992	1998
0	0	Houston Oilers	7	1987	1993
0	3	Minnesota Vikings	6	1973	1978
3	0	Dallas Cowboys	6	1991	1996
0	1	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	1992	1997
0	1	Green Bay Packers	6	1993	1998
0	0	Kansas City Chiefs	6	1990	1995
0	4	Buffalo Bills	6	1988	1993
1	0	Oakland Raiders	6	1972	1977
1	0	Baltimore Ravens	5	2008	2012
0	0	Cleveland Browns	5	1985	1989
0	1	Philadelphia Eagles	5	2000	2004
1	1	Denver Broncos	5	2011	2015
0	0	Minnesota Vikings	5	1996	2000
2	0	New England Patriots	5	2003	2007
1	0	Chicago Bears	5	1984	1988
0	1	Seattle Seahawks	5	2003	2007
1	1	Seattle Seahawks	5	2012	2016
0	2	Miami Dolphins	5	1981	1985
2	1	Miami Dolphins	5	1970	1974
0	0	Miami Dolphins	5	1997	2001
0	0	Cincinnati Bengals	5	2011	2015
0	0	Green Bay Packers	4	2001	2004
0	0	San Diego Chargers	4	1979	1982
0	0	New Orleans Saints	4	2017	2020
0	0	San Diego Chargers	4	2006	2009
0	1	Oakland Raiders	4	1967	1970
0	0	Los Angeles Rams	4	1983	1986
0	0	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	1996	1999
0	0	Los Angeles Raiders	4	1982	1985
1	0	New York Giants	4	2005	2008
1	0	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	1999	2002
0	1	Minnesota Vikings	4	1968	1971
0	1	Washington Redskins	4	1971	1974
0	1	Philadelphia Eagles	4	1978	1981
0	0	Pittsburgh Steelers	4	2014	2017
0	0	Buffalo Bills	4	2019

It’s pretty obvious, as the Bills extend their consecutive playoff streak the chances they get into and win the SB gets better and better.

It should go without saying (but it does) getting into the playoffs year after year simply means that the team is performing at an extremely high level. Yeah, the Bills have not won a Super Bowl...YET. But, they will.

[sukie]

Great Ceasar’s ghost! The more you make playoffs the higher odds that you make the SB? Who woulda thunk?

Now if only it was true that the more you make the Super Bowl the better the chance you win one.

I saw a graph that showed Zero chance if you don’t make the playoffs. I can’t find it.

[notacon]

Great Ceasar’s ghost! The more you make playoffs the higher odds that you make the SB? Who woulda thunk?

Now if only it was true that the more you make the Super Bowl the better the chance you win one.

I saw a graph that showed Zero chance if you don’t make the playoffs. I can’t find it.

Like I said...."It should go without saying (but it does)...”

When some thunder heads crap on making the playoffs they need to be reminded that doing so is, in and of itself, an accomplishment and NOT "a participation trophy” or that "Nobody cares unless it ends with a” SB title....or getting in the playoffs is “scraps” or "simply getting to the playoffs doesn’t mean anything” is what is total rubbish.

[sukie]

Second round exit or earlier consistently is really not that much different than missing altogether. Just a worse draft pick.

[Typ0]

I agree 100% that the “higher goal” is always the ultimate goal.

The crapping on getting to the playoffs (especially if done repeatedly) as the equivalent of "a participation trophy” or that "Nobody cares unless it ends with a” SB title....or getting in the playoffs is “scraps” or "simply getting to the playoffs doesn’t mean anything” is what is total rubbish.


Another interesting fact when looking at the data of consecutive playoff seasons is (duh!) the longer the streak the higher the chances to get into and win a Super Bowl.

Nine of the fifteen times a team has had 4 consecutive playoff seasons, they did not even get into the SB. The six times they did get to the SB (every team that did, did so only once) four lost the game and two won.

Four of the thirteen times a team has had 5 consecutive playoff seasons, they did not even get into the SB.

One of the seven times a team has had 6 consecutive playoff seasons, they did not even get into the SB.

One of the two times a team has had 7 consecutive playoff seasons, they did not even get into the SB (Houston Oilers, 1987-1993).


NONE of the six times a team has had 8 consecutive playoff seasons....or the two times a team has had 9 consecutive playoff seasons....or the ONE team that has had 11 consecutive playoff seasons, they did not get into a Super Bowl.


Only one of those teams did not win a Super Bowl during their streak....1979 LA Rams...the one time they got there.



The chart is very interesting....

SB win	SB Loss	Team	Seasons	Start	End
3	2	New England Patriots	11	2009	2019
1	1	Indianapolis Colts	9	2002	2010
1	1	Dallas Cowboys	9	1975	1983
3	0	San Francisco 49ers	8	1983	1990
2	1	Kansas City Chiefs	8	2015
3	0	Pittsburgh Steelers	8	1972	1979
0	1	Los Angeles Rams	8	1973	1980
1	1	Dallas Cowboys	8	1966	1973
1	0	Green Bay Packers	8	2009	2016
1	0	San Francisco 49ers	7	1992	1998
0	0	Houston Oilers	7	1987	1993
0	3	Minnesota Vikings	6	1973	1978
3	0	Dallas Cowboys	6	1991	1996
0	1	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	1992	1997
0	1	Green Bay Packers	6	1993	1998
0	0	Kansas City Chiefs	6	1990	1995
0	4	Buffalo Bills	6	1988	1993
1	0	Oakland Raiders	6	1972	1977
1	0	Baltimore Ravens	5	2008	2012
0	0	Cleveland Browns	5	1985	1989
0	1	Philadelphia Eagles	5	2000	2004
1	1	Denver Broncos	5	2011	2015
0	0	Minnesota Vikings	5	1996	2000
2	0	New England Patriots	5	2003	2007
1	0	Chicago Bears	5	1984	1988
0	1	Seattle Seahawks	5	2003	2007
1	1	Seattle Seahawks	5	2012	2016
0	2	Miami Dolphins	5	1981	1985
2	1	Miami Dolphins	5	1970	1974
0	0	Miami Dolphins	5	1997	2001
0	0	Cincinnati Bengals	5	2011	2015
0	0	Green Bay Packers	4	2001	2004
0	0	San Diego Chargers	4	1979	1982
0	0	New Orleans Saints	4	2017	2020
0	0	San Diego Chargers	4	2006	2009
0	1	Oakland Raiders	4	1967	1970
0	0	Los Angeles Rams	4	1983	1986
0	0	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	1996	1999
0	0	Los Angeles Raiders	4	1982	1985
1	0	New York Giants	4	2005	2008
1	0	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	1999	2002
0	1	Minnesota Vikings	4	1968	1971
0	1	Washington Redskins	4	1971	1974
0	1	Philadelphia Eagles	4	1978	1981
0	0	Pittsburgh Steelers	4	2014	2017
0	0	Buffalo Bills	4	2019

It’s pretty obvious, as the Bills extend their consecutive playoff streak the chances they get into and win the SB gets better and better.

It should go without saying (but it does) getting into the playoffs year after year simply means that the team is performing at an extremely high level. Yeah, the Bills have not won a Super Bowl...YET. But, they will.

I agree with that you have to get there so you can take your shot. Getting there gives you the opportunity. But our team seems to underperform on a pretty consistent basis. That is what I am pointing out and asking questions about. At some point you have to consider there is something in the formula that puts you well positioned to win a % of regular season games and not well enough positioned to win post-season games. There has been change. It needs to manifest itself into the formula where the team comes up more competitive in the post season. They need to figure out how to follow through. It might mean you cluster up the % of wins to try and get over the hump. Well you actually take more chances to try and win more games because you aren't afraid to lose more either -- which means you might lose more.

If I see that from McDermott this season I am on board but I am very weary of the hype machine that relies too much on Josh Allen. Everyone over there, players, coaches, the box office staff god dammit--they all gotta be pissed off to the max the way the season went last year. The reset needs to have a heavy dose of trauma training on top of just dealing with the onslaught of other bull**** they put up with. Everyone is going to rebound pissed off and ready for blood. Recharge those batteries. We need our guys in a position to succeed then let them play football. This little underlying thread of conservativism not being the way to win in the NFL then trying to employ that strategy and hope Josh Allen can cover it up has to go away. We need everyone to have the killer instinct Josh Allen has so he doesn't get overloaded and have to push to make plays. The plays have to start happening organically. We need to be more methodical on offense and more disruptive on defense.

They need to figure out how to get this going on here to get over the next hump. Honestly, we don't have any cupcakes in our schedule right now. It looks brutal. Any time we flutter there is a good chance the other team will beat us. None of those games you can kinda wade through and still come out on top because you have a good team. Even getting to the playoffs could be harder this season but it does have to play out.

[Night Train]

Back on topic...if anyone can remember the thread title..

Houston has just under 17 Mil in cap space. Sounds like his next team to me. I think his actual market now with teams having spent their $ already for this year is next to dead. Time to play mercenary and get paid. His old team has the $.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

WGR is saying no Hopkins but I doubt they have any insider info. Tim Graham is making the same suggestion...

Source: Free agent DeAndre Hopkins “a long shot” to sign with Bills, plus insight from other NFL execs https://t.co/V8Qof0eg5R

— Tim Graham (@ByTimGraham) June 1, 2023

[Skooby]

/.

[POTLAND PSILBYLO]

I think we are underrating our WR room if we think DHOP is worth sacrificing anyone.

[notacon]

I agree with that you have to get there so you can take your shot. Getting there gives you the opportunity. But our team seems to underperform on a pretty consistent basis. That is what I am pointing out and asking questions about. At some point you have to consider there is something in the formula that puts you well positioned to win a % of regular season games and not well enough positioned to win post-season games. There has been change. It needs to manifest itself into the formula where the team comes up more competitive in the post season. They need to figure out how to follow through. It might mean you cluster up the % of wins to try and get over the hump. Well you actually take more chances to try and win more games because you aren't afraid to lose more either -- which means you might lose more.

If I see that from McDermott this season I am on board but I am very weary of the hype machine that relies too much on Josh Allen. Everyone over there, players, coaches, the box office staff god dammit--they all gotta be pissed off to the max the way the season went last year. The reset needs to have a heavy dose of trauma training on top of just dealing with the onslaught of other bull**** they put up with. Everyone is going to rebound pissed off and ready for blood. Recharge those batteries. We need our guys in a position to succeed then let them play football. This little underlying thread of conservativism not being the way to win in the NFL then trying to employ that strategy and hope Josh Allen can cover it up has to go away. We need everyone to have the killer instinct Josh Allen has so he doesn't get overloaded and have to push to make plays. The plays have to start happening organically. We need to be more methodical on offense and more disruptive on defense.

They need to figure out how to get this going on here to get over the next hump. Honestly, we don't have any cupcakes in our schedule right now. It looks brutal. Any time we flutter there is a good chance the other team will beat us. None of those games you can kinda wade through and still come out on top because you have a good team. Even getting to the playoffs could be harder this season but it does have to play out.

I appreciate what you are saying and I agree with most of it in theory. The 2021 13-second loss was a huge disappointment but showed that the Bills were on the cusp of getting over that hump.

The off season moves they made, addressed the issues that prevented full success. Then reality hit in the form of an amazing amount of devastating injuries.

Losing Hyde for almost the full season has huge. Losing Von Miller for the end of the season and the playoffs negated THE most critical move the Bills made to get over the hump.

Tre’ White taking much more of the season to get back to even close to top form hurt. Elam not seizing the starting #2 CB jib (which he still has not done) made it all the more difficult to get over that hump.

On top of all that, the events that transpired during the season were unprecedented (in and of themselves...especially having a player literally die on the field in freakin week #17) was an anchor.

But the biggest issues were still on offense as I have been beating the accurate drum for months now....the troubles with the offense are what were at the heart of every single of the four losses last season.

Unlike with defense, injuries did not play a critical role. Although the ankle injury to Davis did have some effect, as well as Josh's elbow injury.

Losing Daboll had a bigger effect than many want to admit (because it would show that so many crapping on him was unfounded and shortsighted....the same way crapping on Frazier is unfounded and shortsighted).

Too much was put on Josh being superman and the reality is that, just like last year addressing the defensive issues (albeit negated because of key injuries) the Bills have in fact, taken place, the offensive issues have been addressed this off season with the 25 man offense roster getting a massive make-over of over a third new faces....whcih alosmt every one of them )most likely) an improvement.

BIG changes that most of us have been harping on. Key additions to the O-line....both signing Connor McGovern and drafting O’Cyrus Torrence....drafting the best pass catcher in the 2023 draft, bringing a dimension on offense (a fast, big, pass catching TE with elite hands and route running skills)....replacing fully ONE HALF of the WR room....adding a big, tough RB who has shown the ability excel in short yardage situations.

All of these have me very optimistic that the Bills have gone a LONG way to "figure out how to get this going on here to get over the next hump”.

The beauty of the NFL is that every season is different. Teams’ rosters change regularly with about 25% of the previous roster being replaced.

The strength of the Bills comes from their CORE, which is as solid as can be.

I don’t buy the idea that "our team seems to underperform on a pretty consistent basis”. They have not the past four seasons which is why they have the second most wins in that time.

The issue is disappointing in the playoffs for sure. Not even close to uncorrectable....and I would opine that it is likely to change this season for the reasons I have stated.


But, it IS an issue, that the whole team is vitally aware and cognizant of. The reality is it is extremely difficult to even get into the SB game, much less win it. Even the teams with the longest playoff streaks did not just waltz into the big game.

The chart above tells all. Even with the best team dynasty (concentrating on the post-cap era, and the post ‘let’s protect the QB and encourage the passing game’ era since the turn of the century) in NFL history...NE....their 11 season streak STILL had them not getting to the SB more than half of the time (5 of 11).

Their playoff streak started in 2009....the year by year result?....

2009 - No SB
2010 - No SB
2011 - Lost SB
2012 - No SB
2013 - No SB
2014 - Win SB (the SIXTH year of the streak)
2015 - No SB
2016 - Win SB
2017 - Lose SB
2018 - Win SB
2019 - No SB
2020 - Miss playoffs

#2 on the list, Indy (9 consecutive years between 2002 and 2010) is even more stark....

2002 - No SB
2003 - No SB
2004 - No SB
2005 - No SB
2006 - Win SB (the FIFTH year of the streak)
2007 - No SB
2008 - No SB
2009 - Lose SB
2010 - Miss playoffs


I take the 10,000 ft view. I’m grateful that the close to two decade era of hopelessly middling to terrible teams (and 54 years of one terrible owner) with a long parade of underwhelming to terrible QB’s is OVER.

The Bills WILL win at LEAST one Super Bowl in the near future. To not have faith in is simply not in my mindset and I cannot comprehend any Bills fan who called themselves a “fan” can make themselves so miserable thinking that way.

[notacon]

Back on topic...if anyone can remember the thread title..

Houston has just under 17 Mil in cap space. Sounds like his next team to me. I think his actual market now with teams having spent their $ already for this year is next to dead. Time to play mercenary and get paid. His old team has the $.

Well....since it's rather obvious that the Bills are almost assuredly out of the Hopkins bandwagon (which looks like the smart thing more and more), the topic of this thread becomes less and less relevant.

But, I think the chances of Hopkins going back to Houston is between slim and none. They are in 100% ’tank and rebuild’ mode. Adding Hopkins would make little sense. I suspect there is no love lost between the team and Hopkins either.

Cleveland is popping up as the team that makes more sense. They have $13.8M in cap space. The bad taste of the dumb Deshaun Watson trade can maybe be made less stinky if they reunite Hopkins and Watson.

Amiri Cooper is a top 15 WR, but has a pretty dismal 59% target to catch ratio. After Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones, they get a very thin.

Maybe adding Hopkins could save the Browns from the cellar in the AFC North.

[sukie]

I’d rather go hard pass. Too much cap issues the next few years.

[Lexwhat]

Well....since it's rather obvious that the Bills are almost assuredly out of the Hopkins bandwagon (which looks like the smart thing more and more), the topic of this thread becomes less and less relevant.

But, I think the chances of Hopkins going back to Houston is between slim and none. They are in 100% ’tank and rebuild’ mode. Adding Hopkins would make little sense. I suspect there is no love lost between the team and Hopkins either.

Cleveland is popping up as the team that makes more sense. They have $13.8M in cap space. The bad taste of the dumb Deshaun Watson trade can maybe be made less stinky if they reunite Hopkins and Watson.

Amiri Cooper is a top 15 WR, but has a pretty dismal 59% target to catch ratio. After Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones, they get a very thin.

Maybe adding Hopkins could save the Browns from the cellar in the AFC North.

Interesting to see the progress since Hopkins was released. At first, I thought the Bills had the best chance of landing Hopkins. That was with my (baseless) assumption that he would agree to a 1-2 year incentive-heavy deal with a Base salary of $10 million a year. However, it seems he wants something equal to or above what Beckham received, which to me doesn't make sense. If anyone pays Hopkins $15-$20 million a year, it's best the Bills stay away. I don't think the Chiefs or Ravens are going to pay that either. I doubt the Dolphins or Jets would. The Bengals won't... I don't care if the Browns or Patriots pay him that, because I don't view them as legitimate contenders.

On a side note, regarding the Bills "Window" - I have to say that it IS closing. That is, the "window" for "this house" is closing... What I mean by that is that many core players might only be with us for 2-3 more years (Diggs, Von Miller, Hyde, Poyer, Morse, possibly Tre White or Milano).

As long as Josh Allen is around and playing at a high level, the "window" will be open, but the "house" will certainly be different. Beane will need to retool the roster significantly in order for us to be competitive during the 2nd half of Josh Allen's career.

The Pats won the Super Bowl in 2002, 2004, and 2005... then in 2015, 2017, and 2019. The rosters were obviously very different in Brady's early years vs. the late ones.

The Bucs and Rams had a window that opened and closed very quickly... The Steelers, Packers, and Seahawks had success early in Big Ben / Rodgers / Russell Wilson careers, but none of those teams were able to create that same success and win a Super Bowl for a decade after that.

I am of the opinion that Beane should continue to be aggressive in trying to win a Super Bowl in the next 2-3 years because those core players will be done by then - otherwise the window in this house will close, and future teams will have to be very different for us to have a chance.

[Woodman]

Interesting to see the progress since Hopkins was released. At first, I thought the Bills had the best chance of landing Hopkins. That was with my (baseless) assumption that he would agree to a 1-2 year incentive-heavy deal with a Base salary of $10 million a year. However, it seems he wants something equal to or above what Beckham received, which to me doesn't make sense. If anyone pays Hopkins $15-$20 million a year, it's best the Bills stay away. I don't think the Chiefs or Ravens are going to pay that either. I doubt the Dolphins or Jets would. The Bengals won't... I don't care if the Browns or Patriots pay him that, because I don't view them as legitimate contenders.

On a side note, regarding the Bills "Window" - I have to say that it IS closing. That is, the "window" for "this house" is closing... What I mean by that is that many core players might only be with us for 2-3 more years (Diggs, Von Miller, Hyde, Poyer, Morse, possibly Tre White or Milano).

As long as Josh Allen is around and playing at a high level, the "window" will be open, but the "house" will certainly be different. Beane will need to retool the roster significantly in order for us to be competitive during the 2nd half of Josh Allen's career.

The Pats won the Super Bowl in 2002, 2004, and 2005... then in 2015, 2017, and 2019. The rosters were obviously very different in Brady's early years vs. the late ones.

The Bucs and Rams had a window that opened and closed very quickly... The Steelers, Packers, and Seahawks had success early in Big Ben / Rodgers / Russell Wilson careers, but none of those teams were able to create that same success and win a Super Bowl for a decade after that.

I am of the opinion that Beane should continue to be aggressive in trying to win a Super Bowl in the next 2-3 years because those core players will be done by then - otherwise the window in this house will close, and future teams will have to be very different for us to have a chance.

Excellent Post!!

[notacon]

Interesting to see the progress since Hopkins was released. At first, I thought the Bills had the best chance of landing Hopkins. That was with my (baseless) assumption that he would agree to a 1-2 year incentive-heavy deal with a Base salary of $10 million a year. However, it seems he wants something equal to or above what Beckham received, which to me doesn't make sense. If anyone pays Hopkins $15-$20 million a year, it's best the Bills stay away. I don't think the Chiefs or Ravens are going to pay that either. I doubt the Dolphins or Jets would. The Bengals won't... I don't care if the Browns or Patriots pay him that, because I don't view them as legitimate contenders.

On a side note, regarding the Bills "Window" - I have to say that it IS closing. That is, the "window" for "this house" is closing... What I mean by that is that many core players might only be with us for 2-3 more years (Diggs, Von Miller, Hyde, Poyer, Morse, possibly Tre White or Milano).

As long as Josh Allen is around and playing at a high level, the "window" will be open, but the "house" will certainly be different. Beane will need to retool the roster significantly in order for us to be competitive during the 2nd half of Josh Allen's career.

The Pats won the Super Bowl in 2002, 2004, and 2005... then in 2015, 2017, and 2019. The rosters were obviously very different in Brady's early years vs. the late ones.

The Bucs and Rams had a window that opened and closed very quickly... The Steelers, Packers, and Seahawks had success early in Big Ben / Rodgers / Russell Wilson careers, but none of those teams were able to create that same success and win a Super Bowl for a decade after that.

I am of the opinion that Beane should continue to be aggressive in trying to win a Super Bowl in the next 2-3 years because those core players will be done by then - otherwise the window in this house will close, and future teams will have to be very different for us to have a chance.

Well said.

The distinction of the Bills “window closing” for “this house” rings true, although I’m not sure it’s relevant in relation to long term competitiveness.


The comparison between the Bucs and Rams, who both went ALL IN for one year of glory and sacrificed years of competitiveness, where they are both in MAJOR from the ground up rebuilds, is NOT the path most true blue Bills fans want to take.

Every season sees a new team. There is about a 25% turnover every single year. After the 13 second loss, the Bills completely revamped the D-line. Three of the four starters, Jerry Hughes, Vernon Butler and Mario Addison gone.

After the disappointing offensive showing in the Cincy debacle, the offense is going though a major overhaul. Singletary, McKenzie, Moss, Kumerow & Crowder gone.

The churn of draft choices and one-year vet contracts is the norm today. Long term contacts for core players. 2-3 years certainly many of what are considered core players, will be replaced with new core players.

I like the way Beane approaches roster building. He is aggressive when it makes sense. Cuts players loose when when that makes sense. Try and develop your draft choices and look two, three years down the road when drafting....especially in later rounds.

The fact is that most teams have only a handful of top tier players and only pay one in any given position highly (as measured by AVG/Y). The facts are undeniable.

Of the 14 positions that have multiple players on each team (excluding single player positions....LS, FB, K & P) for 32 teams (448 instances) only FOUR teams have two players within the top 10 AVG/Y salary for the same position...

Miami - CB - #3 & #6
Baltimore - CB - #4 & #10
LAC - EDGE - #2 & #5
Wash - DL - #3 & #8.

The important thing to look at with higher paid players is when the guaranteed money runs out along with dead cap money.

Von Miller is not going anywhere until after the 2024 season (2024 last year of guaranteed money of $10.7M...relatively substantial cap savings after that year) . 2023 may be Diggs last season. No guaranteed money after 2023, and only a $3.2M dead cap hit....the $27.8M cap hit for 2024 might be too unpalatable.

Same with Tre’ White. No guaranteed money after 2023, $6M cap saving if let go (or traded) before 2024 season.

But I don’t agree that "win a Super Bowl in the next 2-3 years because those core players will be done by then” as I don’t think it is dire if “ the window in this house will close” as it’s obvious for any competitive team that "future teams will have to be very different for us to have a chance.”

I’m quite confident that Beane is balancing the “let’s be aggressive to win a SB in the next 2-3 years” but also tempers that by limiting 'kicking the cap down the road' (like Rams and Bucs did not limit) and constantly plan for several years with developing new core players.

Yeah....churn and burn is the way of the NFL today. As long as you have an elite QB, the pieces around him are fungible. Different faces, but the window is wide open as long as Josh Allen is healthy.

[Bill Cody]

I don't think the D Hop market is as robust as anyone including D Hop thought. The guy has the best hands in the league but he's also an extreme prima donna that doesn't like to practice and wants to play sandlot ball. That's the reason he's moved around and why he's still unsigned IMO.

[Woodman]

Stephen Jones- Cowboys aren't interested in DeAndre Hopkins - ProFootballTalk

As the free agency of receiver DeAndre Hopkins has lingered, more steam has emerged regarding the possibility of the Cowboys pursuing him.

Cowboys executive Stephen Jones has made it clear that won’t happen.

[Woodman]

“He’s not on this team right now,” Jones said, via Clarence E. Hill, Jr. of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. “We went down the road with [Brandin] Cooks. We’re very comfortable with Cooks. We’re pleased with our receiving group.”

They should be. They have Cooks, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup. There’s no reason to add Hopkins, barring an unexpected injury of course.

Hopkins was released six days ago. There have been no visits, no reports regarding active negotiations.

It all points to the probability that Hopkins still wants more than the market will justify.

[Woodman]

Brandon Beane on signing DeAndre Hopkins- A great talent, would never rule it out - ProFootballTalk

The Bills were frequently mentioned as a potential landing spot for wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins before he was released by the Cardinals last week and they haven’t faded out of the picture since he hit the open market.

General Manager Brandon Beane didn’t do anything to pull his team out of the mix during a Monday appearance on The Pat McAfee Show. Beane was asked his thoughts about Hopkins saying he’d like to play with quarterback Josh Allen and he suggested the team has some interest in the veteran while expressing some caution about the financial side of things.














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[Bill Cody]

Brandon Beane on signing DeAndre Hopkins- A great talent, would never rule it out - ProFootballTalk

The Bills were frequently mentioned as a potential landing spot for wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins before he was released by the Cardinals last week and they haven’t faded out of the picture since he hit the open market.

General Manager Brandon Beane didn’t do anything to pull his team out of the mix during a Monday appearance on The Pat McAfee Show. Beane was asked his thoughts about Hopkins saying he’d like to play with quarterback Josh Allen and he suggested the team has some interest in the veteran while expressing some caution about the financial side of things.














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Translation: "yeah we'd take him but he's asking for way too much money now. If the demands fall he has our number."