Bills Championship window

[ghz in pittsburgh]

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/07/13/bi...crunch-outlook

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The answers for the Bills and their front office are simple: They must draft much better, stop paying third contracts and cease with void years, as they’ve given out to Hyde, Dawkins and Milano.

But executing said plan isn’t easy. And if Buffalo doesn’t reverse course, it runs a serious risk of becoming the worst combination sports has to offer: old and expensive.

[OpIv37]

2021 was our year but… 13 seconds.

In 2020, we were good but has no playoff experience and the Chiefs were just better. Last year, one could argue that the Hamlin incident was just too much adversity to overcome, but the reality is that we had no answers for Cincy. They were so much better.

At this point, just get Hopkins and go for broke this year, and hope to win it. The early 90’s Bills are arguably the best team to never win a championship. The early 2020’s Bills are on the verge of joining them. If we don’t get it this year, we’re looking at cap jail and a rebuild that will take at least 3 years and Allen will be on the wrong side of 30 before we’re competitive again.

[sukie]

The Patriots can have a 2 decade window. So can Buffalo.

[Forward_Lateral]

As long as they have a top 5 QB, the window is there.

[OpIv37]

The Patriots can have a 2 decade window. So can Buffalo.

The cap numbers are what they are. The Bills can’t have a long window with that reality.

Also, the Patriots are the exception to the rule. They’re literally the only team that’s done that in the cap era. No one will ever do it again.

[sukie]

The cap numbers are what they are. The Bills can’t have a long window with that reality.

Also, the Patriots are the exception to the rule. They’re literally the only team that’s done that in the cap era. No one will ever do it again.

Never say never

[Thurmal]

2021 was our year but… 13 seconds.

In 2020, we were good but has no playoff experience and the Chiefs were just better. Last year, one could argue that the Hamlin incident was just too much adversity to overcome, but the reality is that we had no answers for Cincy. They were so much better.

At this point, just get Hopkins and go for broke this year, and hope to win it. The early 90’s Bills are arguably the best team to never win a championship. The early 2020’s Bills are on the verge of joining them. If we don’t get it this year, we’re looking at cap jail and a rebuild that will take at least 3 years and Allen will be on the wrong side of 30 before we’re competitive again.

2021 is so frustrating. That was clearly the year. We had, at that time, the best player in football, and he was having the best postseason for a QB in NFL history. Only the Bills could turn that into a divisional round exit. I honestly think I'll ever be able to ever forgive that coaching staff for botching that.

[notacon]

The cap numbers are what they are. The Bills can’t have a long window with that reality.

Also, the Patriots are the exception to the rule. They’re literally the only team that’s done that in the cap era. No one will ever do it again.

I don’t buy that at all.

There will bo some tough decisions to be made, like the Pats did....let high priced aging vets go (via trade or release) before their game degrades quickly.

We already know who are going to be in the spotlight for this...soon.

Diggs, Von Miller, Tre’ White, Mitch Morse....$79.7M in 2024 cap space (albeit, with only $3M in cap savings in 2024) but only Von Miller has guaranteed money in 2024 of $10.7M..

For 2025, Diggs, White and Miller can produce $26M in cap space by moving on. None have any guaranteed money (which is the real number to keep in mind). In act, there are only three players with guaranteed money in 2025....Allen ($16.5M), Elam ($2.7M) and Kincaid ($1.9M).

Diggs and Tre’ White will be prime trade targets after this season.

In today’s NFL the only player that is extremely difficult to replace is an elite QB. We have one. That makes everything possible.

[Goobylal]

The Championship window will exist for as long as Josh stays a top QB. The Cheats' window lasted 20 years because of Brady.

[YardRat]

The Championship window will exist for as long as Josh stays a top QB. The Cheats' window lasted 20 years because of Brady.

The first window, with Josh on a rookie contract (and a new HC/front office) closed, characterized by under-achievement.
The second window, with Josh on an expensive extension and limited time with other big contracts to some big contributors is probably only going to be two seasons ('23 and '24).
If they underachieve again, the opportunity for a championship is going to move on to the third window...jettison older and expensive players and try to re-build/re-tool around the franchise QB.

And each window gets tougher as the seasons roll by.

[OpIv37]

The Championship window will exist for as long as Josh stays a top QB. The Cheats' window lasted 20 years because of Brady.

They never had the cap issues that we currently do. We will waste at least 5 years of Josh’s prime rebuilding. Somehow, the Patriots figured out how to go 20 years without doing that. No one else has done that in the cap era.

Also, there were a lot of great QB’s in the Brady era. Rodgers, Rothlisberger, Matt Ryan, Brees, Peyton, Rivers, I know I’m forgetting a few. None of them came close to doing what Brady did.

And, Brady was never as physical or athletic as Josh, and Brady had very good OL play. He took a fraction of the punishment that Josh is taking. Josh will never last that long.

Just stop with the nonsense Brady comparisons. There are key differences that you are choosing to ignore.

[Goobylal]

They never had the cap issues that we currently do. We will waste at least 5 years of Josh’s prime rebuilding. Somehow, the Patriots figured out how to go 20 years without doing that. No one else has done that in the cap era.

Also, there were a lot of great QB’s in the Brady era. Rodgers, Rothlisberger, Matt Ryan, Brees, Peyton, Rivers, I know I’m forgetting a few. None of them came close to doing what Brady did.

And, Brady was never as physical or athletic as Josh, and Brady had very good OL play. He took a fraction of the punishment that Josh is taking. Josh will never last that long.

Just stop with the nonsense Brady comparisons. There are key differences that you are choosing to ignore.

Lots of teams have won SBs with their QBs not on rookie deals. And the team can absolutely fix their cap problems and draft well. What they really need is to be cheating and for Josh to take a smaller salary because he's getting paid under the table.

[YardRat]

Lots of teams have won SBs with their QBs not on rookie deals. And the team can absolutely fix their cap problems and draft well. What they really need is to be cheating and for Josh to take a smaller salary because he's getting paid under the table.

The only QB this century to win his first Super Bowl with the team that drafted him after a second deal is Peyton Manning. Technically Rodgers did also, but he didn't start until his extension and his second contract was minimal as a result.

No head coach since John Madden in '75 has won a Super Bowl without at least taking their team to one in their first six seasons.

Buffalo is going to have to buck a couple of very big trends if they are going to win a championship with McD and Allen.

[Goobylal]

The only QB this century to win his first Super Bowl with the team that drafted him after a second deal is Peyton Manning. Technically Rodgers did also, but he didn't start until his extension and his second contract was minimal as a result.

No head coach since John Madden in '75 has won a Super Bowl without at least taking their team to one in their first six seasons.

Buffalo is going to have to buck a couple of very big trends if they are going to win a championship with McD and Allen.

Being with the team that drafted them is immaterial. The point is QB salary.

And Josh has already bucked a lot of trends to be where he is.

[Night Train]

https://media.tenor.com/nom93LryqycA...art-window.gif

[Historian]

They never had the cap issues that we currently do. We will waste at least 5 years of Josh’s prime rebuilding. Somehow, the Patriots figured out how to go 20 years without doing that. No one else has done that in the cap era.

I've thought a lot about this, (the Pats 20 years of dominance) and how it relates to Buffalo.

1. BB was never afraid to cut a guy loose in his prime. He always had his replacement waiting in the wings. That's scouting. (Lawyer Milloy)

2. BB never went after high priced FAs that I can remember. Just serviceable talent that fit his system, ie, Antowain Smith.

3. Brady was an anomaly that we may never see again. I think the system played to his strengths, and kept him healthy. He was also a fitness and nutrition nut.

4. The AFC East was pretty much a joke for at least 15 years.

5. A rich owner, and a great personnel department, and the Coach and GM on the same page.

6. Solid O line.

7. Solid d line and pass rush.

8. Tested the "elasticity" of the rules.

9. Solid coordinators, but always ready with their replacement.

10. New Stadium.

So where do the Bills stack up against those things? (and I'm sure there are more)

I think the AFCE is much tougher.

I think our coordinators are sub-standard.

First time Coach vs a veteran, who had won a SB as a coordinator.

I think our D line is good, I think our Oline is barely average.

Our personnel department is good, not great.

We don't cheat.

Everywhere else, I think we match up pretty well as an organization.

[Typ0]

I've thought a lot about this, (the Pats 20 years of dominance) and how it relates to Buffalo.

1. BB was never afraid to cut a guy loose in his prime. He always had his replacement waiting in the wings. That's scouting. (Lawyer Milloy)

2. BB never went after high priced FAs that I can remember. Just serviceable talent that fit his system, ie, Antowain Smith.

3. Brady was an anomaly that we may never see again. I think the system played to his strengths, and kept him healthy. He was also a fitness and nutrition nut.

4. The AFC East was pretty much a joke for at least 15 years.

5. A rich owner, and a great personnel department, and the Coach and GM on the same page.

6. Solid O line.

7. Solid d line and pass rush.

8. Tested the "elasticity" of the rules.

9. Solid coordinators, but always ready with their replacement.

10. New Stadium.

So where do the Bills stack up against those things? (and I'm sure there are more)

I think the AFCE is much tougher.

I think our coordinators are sub-standard.

First time Coach vs a veteran, who had won a SB as a coordinator.

I think our D line is good, I think our Oline is barely average.

Our personnel department is good, not great.

We don't cheat.

Everywhere else, I think we match up pretty well as an organization.

Where else is there? You pretty much covered it all in some way or another! Brady was the anomaly. And I like what you said in #2 as well...you put Brady in the system that spreads it's money around the right talent that work together and it is a painful 20 yrs.

[Typ0]

The Championship window will exist for as long as Josh stays a top QB. The Cheats' window lasted 20 years because of Brady.

OK. But Brady didn't train-wreck sometimes the way Allen does either that is what set him apart.

[Woodman]

The Patriots can have a 2 decade window. So can Buffalo.

Absolutely!!

[Woodman]

OK. But Brady didn't train-wreck sometimes the way Allen does either that is what set him apart.

We gotta get him to play Smart football CONSISTENTLY THAT'S WHAT Brady brought to the table.

Use all the assets you possess ...... easier said than done but the only way to win consistently.