So where do we stand after today's bloodletting?

[Goobylal]

Re: So where do we stand after today's bloodletting?

I would say it was more of a bloodbath...

[notacon]

Re: So where do we stand after today's bloodletting?

So, when I criticize the Bills and the Athletic has them ranked highly in the power rankings, you say you’ll trust them over me because they’re they “experts”

But, now that I’m in agreement with the Athletic’s rankings, suddenly they’re only ranking teams higher than us because it’s “obligatory.”

So, which is it? Is the Athletic an objective source of experts whose opinion should be trusted, or are they bound by some “obligation” to rank certain teams in certain positions?

Again, your homerism is showing. When they rankings disagree with what I said, they’re they “experts” who should be trusted over me. When the rankings agree with what I said, you have a huge diatribe about why the rankings are wrong.

Make up your mind.

Except I have not posted team power power rankings from The Athletic or anyone else for years.


I have posted NFL GM's, NFL coaches, NFL scouts rankings of position groups, from ESPN, and I have posted The Athletics' "QB Tiers" survey described for 2023 as "commentary from the 50 NFL coaches and executives who were granted anonymity to share unvarnished evaluations. This year, the 50 league insiders who placed 30 veteran quarterbacks into tiers included eight general managers, 10 head coaches, 15 coordinators, 10 executives, four quarterbacks coaches and three involved in coaching/analytics." but not "power rankings" of teams.



This statement of yours is FALSE..."When they (power) rankings disagree with what I said, they’re they “experts” who should be trusted over me. When the rankings agree with what I said, you have a huge diatribe about why the rankings are wrong. ".


If you want to prove that, provide quotes with links (like I do of your stupid crap all the time). PU or STFU!!!


And yes, the power ranking that I posted here (only because you posted one first, hence my sentence...."Well, I'll call your Power Ranking and RAISE you one...") it was pretty clear that number 1 through 4 were "obligatory" since they happened to be the four teams that made it to the conference championships game last year.

Just stop with the utterly absurd "homerism" bullcrap. It's just dumb.

In FACT, since you say you are "in agreement with the Athletic’s rankings" it shows how silly, narrow minded and not very....uhhh.....detail orientated you are and shows that you are still the KING of, and THE Zone's resident Bills hater

Their ranking (which I did not express any opinion of agreement or disagreement with)....does NOT support your sourpuss anti-Bills baloney.

They place the Bills #10 out of 32 NFL teams, and 6th of 16 AFC teams.

YOU were the one who has ALREADY stupidly buried the Bills by saying "The Bills won’t make the playoffs. Mark it now". While I said "the Bills not only WILL make the playoffs they will do so by winning the AFCE for the FIFTH year in a row."

Well....14 NFL teams make the playoffs...Bills are ranked #10. Does not bode well for you dumb prediction....and it bolsters mine.

The AFC has seven playoff teams....Bills are ranked #6....Does not bode well for your stupid prediction.....and it bolsters mine.

The AFCE has four teams....the Bills are ranked #10....Miami is ranked #13....NY Jets are ranked #15....the NE Pats are ranked #29....Does not bode well for your stupid prediction.....and it bolsters mine.

The "hypocrisy" is YOUR Opi, not mine.

You bet your ass I tout the "experts" in survey's like the ESPN position groups rankings that includes NFL GM's, NFL coaches, NFL scouts etc....and you bet your ass I tout The Athletics' QB Tiers ranking from NFL GM's, NFL head coaches, NFL coordinators, NFL executives and NFL QB coaches...

You BET YOUR ASS I VALUE and RESPECT the opinions from NFL GM's, NFL head coaches, NFL coordinators, NFL executives and NFL position coaches EXPONENTIALLY MORE THAN YOURS!! You are NOT an "expert" in much except vitriolic and Anti-Bills baloney.

Your lame attempt of "gotcha' by posting a "Power Ranking" from a journalist who specializes in college football and golf...and even THAT shows that your lame predictions of THE SKY IS FALLING for the Bills as being total baloney and overwrought anti-Bills hysteria that you have become known for,.

In other words...A FAIL once again.

[OpIv37]

Re: So where do we stand after today's bloodletting?

That’s a flat out lie. You use the power rankings all the time.

[Oaf]

Re: So where do we stand after today's bloodletting?

That’s a flat out lie. You use the power rankings all the time.

C'mon bro—you're already staking your claim that the Bills will miss the playoffs all the way in MARCH? When they've made it 6 of 7 years running? There's at least 10 wins on the schedule; Vegas would bet that we're more likely to win the div than miss the dance.

[OpIv37]

Re: So where do we stand after today's bloodletting?

C'mon bro—you're already staking your claim that the Bills will miss the playoffs all the way in MARCH? When they've made it 6 of 7 years running? There's at least 10 wins on the schedule; Vegas would bet that we're more likely to win the div than miss the dance.

The Bills have taken a few steps backward when there are already several teams ahead of us and several teams right on our heels that probably surpassed us.

I did say that we won’t make the playoffs but I’m backing off on that because our division is such crap. We’d have to be really bad to not win it, and I don’t think I we backtracked that much. But equaling the feat of making the AFCCG like we did 3 years ago? Not gonna happen. Winning a playoff game won’t happen.

[OpIv37]

Re: So where do we stand after today's bloodletting?

C'mon bro—you're already staking your claim that the Bills will miss the playoffs all the way in MARCH? When they've made it 6 of 7 years running? There's at least 10 wins on the schedule; Vegas would bet that we're more likely to win the div than miss the dance.

Oh, and one more thing: wins “on the schedule” are meaningless. McD is a good coach but his teams consistently drop 2-3 games a season to lesser competition.

[Goobylal]

Re: So where do we stand after today's bloodletting?

The Bills have taken a few steps backward when there are already several teams ahead of us and several teams right on our heels that probably surpassed us.

I did say that we won’t make the playoffs but I’m backing off on that because our division is such crap. We’d have to be really bad to not win it, and I don’t think I we backtracked that much. But equaling the feat of making the AFCCG like we did 3 years ago? Not gonna happen. Winning a playoff game won’t happen.

You say the bolded every year.

[OpIv37]

Re: So where do we stand after today's bloodletting?

You say the bolded every year.

And every year we lose to the same teams. And every year someone like Jax or Cincy (or both) catches us. We peaked I. 2020, regressed in 2021 and have only tread water since then. And that was while adding talent, not losing talent like we did this year. Roll your eyes at me all you want. The results speak for themselves.

[notacon]

Re: So where do we stand after today's bloodletting?

TBH I never liked power rankings. Even when we sucked and we were in the high 20’s low 30’s in most rankings, I often argued that there were several teams ranked higher than us that clearly weren’t better than us. In the end, it’s just someone trying to rank teams based on subjective criteria.

With modern analytics and computer modeling, it has gotten better, but someone always has to choose how to rate each metric and there is always subjectivity involved. I don’t care if the Bills are ranked #1 or #32. It’s just not meaningful.

The only reason I even brought it up was to point out notacon’s hypocrisy about when to agree with “experts.”

That’s a flat out lie. You use the power rankings all the time.

Prove it. With quotes and links that show the full context. PU or STFU!!!

Just stop patting yourself on the back on being one of the few that were brave enough () to realize and talk about the Bills not being very good during the drought years. There were LOTS of us that did. Me included.

Sure, there were LOTS that defied reality that was staring them in the face...I was not one of them.


I took a few minutes to stroll down memory lane and came up with these....


In November 2014, with the Bills at 5-3, tied with Miami in the race for second in the AFCE behind the Pats who were sitting pretty at 7-2. Much of the board was all atwiiter (inexplicably) over Kyle Orton (?!?!!?). Yeah, Kyle Orton, who I had pegged and said so....


The Realistic and True Metric of Orton - One of the Worst QB's in the League

It is so amusing to see Sparty try desperately to relive the QB arguments of a decade ago.

Simple stats that don't tell anywhere close to the full picture of a QB's worth are cherry picked to fit a favorite narrative. Orson sucks. He has always sucked. This elevation of this mediocre second string level QB is as destructive as it is amusing.

Pick a few stats and say that Orton is a "top 10" QB.

He's not even close.

The Passer rating is not an accurate measure of a QB's contribution to wins or his consistent quality play. There is a metric that has been developed expressly to measure the true worth of a QB's play.

It's called Total QB Rating, or QBR. Here is an explanation of what it means...

Guide to the Total Quarter Back Rating

The Total Quarterback Rating is a statistical measure that incorporates the contexts and details of those throws and what they mean for wins. It's built from the team level down to the quarterback, where we understand first what each play means to the team, then give credit to the quarterback for what happened on that play based on what he contributed.

At the team level, identifying what wins games is not revolutionary: scoring points and not allowing points. Back in the 1980s, "The Hidden Game of Football" did some pioneering work on that topic and on how yardage relates to points. We went back and updated what that book did … then we went further. At the individual level, more detailed information about what quarterbacks do is really necessary. Brian Burke at AdvancedNFLStats.com has done very good work in advancing that effort, and FootballOutsiders.com has done some of this by charting data, but, for the past three years, ESPN has charted football games in immense detail. By putting all these ideas together and incorporating division of credit, we have built a metric of quarterback value, the Total Quarterback Rating, Total QBR or QBR for short.

What follows is a summary of what goes into QBR. It took several thousand lines of code to implement, but we'll keep this shorter.

...snip...


Total QBR Basics


A quick primer on the fundamentals of Total Quarterback Rating:
Scoring: 0-100, from low to high. An average QB would be at 50.

Win Probability: All QB plays are scored based on how much they contribute to a win. By determining expected point totals for almost any situation, Total QBR is able to apply points to a quarterback based on every type of play he would be involved in.

Dividing Credit: Total QBR factors in such things as overthrows, underthrows, yards after the catch and more to accurately determine how much a QB contributes to each play.

Clutch Index: How critical a certain play is based on when it happens in a game is factored into the score.

This seems like a very accurate and reliable metric. It has been in place since 2006, and looking at each regular season, it does indeed, measure the true and realistic performance level of the NFL QB.

Orton's 2014 rating?

At the bottom of the league....#26.

Interesting too is looking back at every year. Buffalo QB's have ALL sucked since then. All below average. Losman, Edwards, Fitzpatrick, EJ and now Orton have ALL been at the bottom of the league. Orton has NEVER risen higher than #15 (in Denver 2011).

Highest Buffalo QB since 2006? Fitz, #18, 50.5. Every single Buffalo QB in the bottom half of the league. Many, like Orton, are in the bottom 25% of the league.

If Orton raises himself according to this metric and rating system, I will gladly eat my words.

Orton sucks. Any attempt to over state his quality is nonsense. Is he better than EJ? Well, slightly.

Orton is #26 with a rating of 46.1. Last year, EJ was ranked #23 with a rating of 42.3.

Go ahead and entertain your dreams of Orton making the Bills better. I don't buy it, and his true rating reflect that reality.

When I wrote that, the Bills were in their bye week, at 5-3, coming off an impressive win vs terrible, ****ty Jets, beating them 43-23. BIG WHOOP!!!

After the bye they lost the next two games.....falling to 5-5. They were lucky enough to meet the woefully bad (4-12 for 2014) NY Jets and the close to as bad Browns the next two games but, in the end, missed the playoffs by losing two of their last four games, with Orton stinking up the place with his usual slide back to mediocrity. Almost exactly what I predicted.


I posted this before the 2015 season was about to start....much of the board was all atwitter about Tyrod Taylor (again, inexplicably). Not me.


Don't get Too Excited - All of Our QB's Still Suck

Paint me happy that Matt Cassel did not get the starting nod. He's so similar to Orton and would lead the Bills to nowheresville. Boring football, dink and dunk, 5 yard passes on third and 10, punt after punt and FG's being seen as a moral victory is the surest way to continue being a laughingstock of the NFL and continue the 15 year curse.

EJ Manuel is still a puzzle. Strong arm and physical attributes abound, but, until these past few meaningless exhibition games he seemed scared ****less out there...afraid to make a mistake which made him mistake prone. A lot of the blame goes on the Marrone crowd that was the gang who could not hit the side of a barn. I really think Marrone was the worst coach the Bills have ever seen, and we've had our share of ****ty coaches.

Tyron seems exciting....but...during meaningless exhibition games with vanilla defenses and no game plans against him, it's going to be a whole different ball game once the season starts. A sixth round draft pick means he would have to be that one in a thousand exception in performing better than every scout and GM in the NFL missed.

Not likely.

The amount of QB busts drafted in the first round is enough to make your head spin. The number of middling starters coming from after the third round is almost nonexistent. There's a reason for that. Oh...BTW...Cassel was drafted in the 7th round.

The Bills are STILL in the same position with QB's that everyone in the league knows is true...we suck at QB.

Yes, I have the usual Bills fan early season optimism (what else do we have?) and sincerely hope that Tyrod has some hidden gift that will manifest itself in a magical run toward the playoffs.

But, the realism side of me knows that, until shown otherwise, the Bills QB's suck and the team will probably struggle to challenge for a playoff spot.

Those were the days that the reality was that the Bills, without even an average starting QB since Jim Kelly retired, would never be a serious contender....UNTIL they got an elite, franchise level QB. Yeah....a lot of us tried to keep a happy face, but realism (as expressed in these threads I started) won out.

TODAY, is a COMPLETELY different story.

The Bills have that unquestioned ELITE QB, probably the second best QB in the NFL (or at least tied at #2 with Burrow). The owner learned after a few stumbles to hire smart football people and let them do their job.


The Bills have had five straight seasons with 10 or more wins. Four consecutive AFCE titles. Five consecutive playoff seasons (and six of the last seven)

As long as Josh Allen is behind center, the Bills WILL BE serious contenders.

Yet, during this era of some of the BEST times to be a Bills fan, you choose to be a sourpuss Negative Nancy....always searching for the dark lining in the cloud....either by overreacting with anti-Bills bias, or simply making **** up.

Your claim of being "realistic" today is bullcrap. Plain and simple. The whole board knows it.

[OpIv37]

Re: So where do we stand after today's bloodletting?

Do you really think I’m going to read all of that?

[Goobylal]

Re: So where do we stand after today's bloodletting?

And every year we lose to the same teams. And every year someone like Jax or Cincy (or both) catches us. We peaked I. 2020, regressed in 2021 and have only tread water since then. And that was while adding talent, not losing talent like we did this year. Roll your eyes at me all you want. The results speak for themselves.

No, you keep predicting the Bills will miss the playoffs because X team(s) got better. Because they lose players. It's tired.

And since 2020, the Bills have lost in the playoffs to the eventual AFC SB representative, if not SB champion. It's not like they lose to some nobody, much less in the 1st round.

[notacon]

Re: So where do we stand after today's bloodletting?

Do you really think I’m going to read all of that?

A response and sure sign of a narrow, closed minded person who refuses to accept REALITY and likes to wallow in the ignorance of his own hubris.

[notacon]

Re: So where do we stand after today's bloodletting?

No, you keep predicting the Bills will miss the playoffs because X team(s) got better. Because they lose players. It's tired.

And since 2020, the Bills have lost in the playoffs to the eventual AFC SB representative, if not SB champion. It's not like they lose to some nobody, much less in the 1st round.

+1


KC just lost L'Jarius Sneed.

I had this astute reaction....

OH NOES!!!!! THE CHIEFS ARE DONE FOR!!!!!

IF the same logic is applied of one particular "fan" who is saying that about the Bills moving on from a few high priced aging vets and a a under-performing WR.

Funny, but did KC get SOOOOOOO much "better" by signing Marquise Brown?!?!

Last year, Opi kept on telling us that Miami got SOOOOOOO much better while the Bills were "stagnant".....and Miami was going to win the AFCE.....from 10/8/2023....

Mark my words. Miami wins the Div, ceiling for the Bills is a wild card and first round exit. .

.....of course the result was the OPPOSITE with the Bills SWEEPING the Fins and winning the AFCE for the fourth year in a row.....and it was MIAMI that had "ceiling (of a) wild card and first round exit."

[jamze132]

Re: So where do we stand after today's bloodletting?

Every year is different. Past issues aren’t a projection of future performance. Coaches learn, players learn. Every year is a new roster, every year different teams deal with different injuries. You never know how the next season will play out and I’m excited for this new roster.

[OpIv37]

Re: So where do we stand after today's bloodletting?

No, you keep predicting the Bills will miss the playoffs because X team(s) got better. Because they lose players. It's tired.

And since 2020, the Bills have lost in the playoffs to the eventual AFC SB representative, if not SB champion. It's not like they lose to some nobody, much less in the 1st round.

What a bull**** excuse. At some point, we’re supposed to be the SB rep or SB winner. “It’s ok that we lost cuz it was to a really good team!” ****ing A- and notacon accuses me of loser talk….