With the recent movement of Justin Fields, Mac Jones and Kenny Pickett...all 1st round picks from just the past few years, the reality of just how rare and difficult it is to draft an above average starter much less an elite QB is glaringly evident.
For fun I went though every QB drafted in the 1st round since 2014, and rated their status as of today.
Year Pick Player Team Staus 2023 1 Bryce Young Carolina Uneven first year 2 C.J. Stroud Houston Budding star 1st year 4 Anthony Richardson Indy Incomplete Injured 2022 1 Kenny Picket Pittsburgh Probable bust - not with drafting team 2021 1 Trevor Lawrence JAX Above averge starter 2 Zach Wilson NYJ Bust 3 Trey Lance San Fran Probable bust - not with drafting team 11 Justin Fields Chicago Probable bust - not with drafting team 15 Mac Jones NE Probable bust - not with drafting team 2020 1
Joe Burrow Cincy Elite Superstar 5 Tua Tagovailoa Miami Above averge starter 6 Justin Herbert LAC Above averge starter 26 Jordan Love Green Bay Above averge starter 2019 1 Kyler Murray Arizona Below average starter 6 Daniel Jones NYG Below average starter 15 Dwayne Haskins Washinton Bust 2018 1 Baker Mayfield Cleveland Uneven - possible average starter 3 Sam Darnold NYJ Bust - average backup 7
Josh Allen Buffalo Elite Superstar 10 Josh Rosen Arizona Bust 32
Lamar Jackson Baltimore Elite Superstar 2017 2 Mitchell Trubisky Chicago Bust - average backup 10
Patrick Mahomes KC Elite Superstar 12 Deshaun Watson Houston Below average starter 2016 1 Jared Goff LAR Above average starter 2 Carson Wentz Philly Bust - average backup 26 Paxton Lynch Denver Bust 2015 1 Jamies Winston Tampa Bay Bust - average backup 2 Marcus Mariota Tennessee Bust - average backup 2014 3 Blake Bortles LAX Bust 22 Johnny Manziel Cleveland Bust 32 Teddy Bridegwater Minnesota Bust - average backup
Excluding 2023 picks, that's 29 QB's drafted in the first round.
My count is...
4 - Elite Superstars
5 - above average starters
3 - below average starters
1 - uneven - possible average starter
4 - probable Bust - not with drafting team
6 - Bust - average backup
6 - Bust - undeniably so
Only 13.7% of the 29 are "elite superstars"
31% are either elite or above average starter
55% are a bona-fide Bust, probable Bust or Bust and average backup.
Only ONE of the "elite superstar" or "above average starters" has actually won a Super Bowl.
Sometimes it pays to look at the situation from 10,000 feet. We are all disappointed that the Bills have not even gotten to a Super Bowl in 30 years, but, man, we are better off than the overwhelming majority of the NFL teams who are scrambling in the dark, searching desperately for what we already have.