The Bills Are Blessed with One of a Only a Handful of the Rare Elite QB in the NFL

[notacon]

With the recent movement of Justin Fields, Mac Jones and Kenny Pickett...all 1st round picks from just the past few years, the reality of just how rare and difficult it is to draft an above average starter much less an elite QB is glaringly evident.

For fun I went though every QB drafted in the 1st round since 2014, and rated their status as of today.

Year	Pick	Player	Team	Staus
2023	1	Bryce Young	Carolina	Uneven first year
	2	C.J. Stroud	Houston	Budding star 1st year
	4	Anthony Richardson	Indy	Incomplete Injured
2022	1	Kenny Picket	Pittsburgh	Probable bust - not with drafting team
2021	1	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	Above averge starter
	2	Zach Wilson	NYJ	Bust
	3	Trey Lance	San Fran	Probable bust - not with drafting team
	11	Justin Fields	Chicago	Probable bust - not with drafting team
	15	Mac Jones	NE	Probable bust - not with drafting team
2020	1	Joe Burrow	Cincy	Elite Superstar
	5	Tua Tagovailoa	Miami	Above averge starter
	6	Justin Herbert	LAC	Above averge starter
	26	Jordan Love	Green Bay	Above averge starter
2019	1	Kyler Murray	Arizona	Below average starter
	6	Daniel Jones	NYG	Below average starter
	15	Dwayne Haskins	Washinton	Bust
2018	1	Baker Mayfield	Cleveland	Uneven - possible average starter
	3	Sam Darnold	NYJ	Bust - average backup
	7	Josh Allen	Buffalo	Elite Superstar
	10	Josh Rosen	Arizona	Bust
	32	Lamar Jackson	Baltimore	Elite Superstar
2017	2	Mitchell Trubisky	Chicago	Bust - average backup
	10	Patrick Mahomes	KC	Elite Superstar
	12	Deshaun Watson	Houston	Below average starter
2016	1	Jared Goff	LAR	Above average starter
	2	Carson Wentz	Philly	Bust - average backup
	26	Paxton Lynch	Denver	Bust
2015	1	Jamies Winston	Tampa Bay	Bust - average backup
	2	Marcus Mariota	Tennessee	Bust - average backup
2014	3	Blake Bortles	LAX	Bust
	22	Johnny Manziel	Cleveland	Bust
	32	Teddy Bridegwater	Minnesota	Bust - average backup

Excluding 2023 picks, that's 29 QB's drafted in the first round.


My count is...

4 - Elite Superstars
5 - above average starters
3 - below average starters
1 - uneven - possible average starter
4 - probable Bust - not with drafting team
6 - Bust - average backup
6 - Bust - undeniably so

Only 13.7% of the 29 are "elite superstars"

31% are either elite or above average starter

55% are a bona-fide Bust, probable Bust or Bust and average backup.

Only ONE of the "elite superstar" or "above average starters" has actually won a Super Bowl.

Sometimes it pays to look at the situation from 10,000 feet. We are all disappointed that the Bills have not even gotten to a Super Bowl in 30 years, but, man, we are better off than the overwhelming majority of the NFL teams who are scrambling in the dark, searching desperately for what we already have.

[Kenny]

I might be unpopular for saying this, but there's only 1 maybe 2 elite QBs in this league - Mahomes and maybe Burrows.
.
Jackson looks great in the regular season because his athleticism allows him to feast on bad and average defenses, but he can't elevate himself or the others around him when it matters.

Josh has shown elite traits from time to time and there are times where he does things even Mahomes could only dream of doing. But he's just not consistent enough.

[TacklingDummy]

Now imagine Mahomes on the Bills and Allen on the Chiefs.

Would the Chiefs be just as good with Allen?

Would the Bills be just as good with Mahomes?

[Goobylal]

I might be unpopular for saying this, but there's only 1 maybe 2 elite QBs in this league - Mahomes and maybe Burrows.
.
Jackson looks great in the regular season because his athleticism allows him to feast on bad and average defenses, but he can't elevate himself or the others around him when it matters.

Josh has shown elite traits from time to time and there are times where he does things even Mahomes could only dream of doing. But he's just not consistent enough.

Give me Reid or Taylor as OCs anyday and twice on Sundays.

[notacon]

Now imagine Mahomes on the Bills and Allen on the Chiefs.

Would the Chiefs be just as good with Allen?

Would the Bills be just as good with Mahomes?

We've spent a LOT of posts on that subject.

I do not think (at this point in time) there is any question, and I backed up my premise with a plethora of facts and evidence that....

If Mahomes was on the Bills (since 2017), they would have two or three SB wins.

If Josh Allen was on the Chiefs (since 2018), they woulds not have any.

But that's not the point of this thread and that horse that has been beaten to a bloody death....no need to rehash the same arguments.

I disagree with Kenny, "there's only 1 maybe 2 elite QBs in this league - Mahomes and maybe Burrows."

There is no question that there are four QB's drafted since 2014 that I deemed "Elite Superstar".

As I have posted before with a LOT of detail, The Athletic ranks QB's every year and out them into Tiers. This is not the opinion of journalists but rather the well informed expert opinion of current NFL professionals.....NFL coaches, GM's, coordinators, talent evaluators and QB coaches that are "granted anonymity to share unvarnished evaluations" to place each starting QB into "Tiers".

Instead of using the word "elite" they use "Tier 1". They define that as...

"Tier 1 - A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure passing situations. He has no real holes in his game."

2023 Tiers, reflecting the 2022 season had FIVE QB's....

Mahomes
Burrow
Allen
Rodgers
Herbert

Slightly different than my four "elite" (drafted since 2014) but my observation includes 2023 season. It will be interesting to see what their Tiers are when they publish in July.

My list was only QB's drafted since 2014. I include Lamar Jackson in "elite" because he raised the level of his play in 2023. Conversely, I believe that Herbert took a step back last year.

It remains to be seen if Rodgers maintains his "elite" status. I suspect he will.

Josh Allen took three years to climb into Tier 1 territory.
2023 – JA got 44 Tier 1 votes and 6 Tier 2.
2022 – JA’s first year obtaining Tier 1 status his voting average was 1.22 for Tier 1 (they do not give vote totals every year)
2021 – JA got 20 Tier 1 votes and 30 Tier 2. He was deemed a “Tier 2” that year.
2020 – JA got 4 Tier 2 votes, 40 Tier 3 and 6 Tier 4. He was deemed a “Tier 3” QB.
2019 – JA received 18 Tier 3 votes, 36 Tier 4 and 1 Tier 5. He was deemed a “Tier 4” QB.


He is unquestionably an "elite" QB. And I am grateful that the Bils have him and will have him for years to come.

[Forward_Lateral]

I might be unpopular for saying this, but there's only 1 maybe 2 elite QBs in this league - Mahomes and maybe Burrows.
.
Jackson looks great in the regular season because his athleticism allows him to feast on bad and average defenses, but he can't elevate himself or the others around him when it matters.

Josh has shown elite traits from time to time and there are times where he does things even Mahomes could only dream of doing. But he's just not consistent enough.

SO, you think Burrow is elite, but not Josh?

OK.

- - - Updated - - -

Nota,

This thread is going to bring out the stupidest and most idiotic of this site.

[Woodman]

SO, you think Burrow is elite, but not Josh?

OK.

- - - Updated - - -

Nota,

This thread is going to bring out the stupidest and most idiotic of this site.

Beat me to it .... sorry Kenny Burrow is very good ......... but is much much less without his insane level of WR quality that he's surrounded by.

Take away Higgins bye bye Burrow ...... take away Chase bye bye Burrow.

Send those two to Buffalo hello MVP Super Bowl Josh Allen.

Burrow needless to say provides no threat with his legs.

[notacon]

SO, you think Burrow is elite, but not Josh?

OK.

- - - Updated - - -

Nota,

This thread is going to bring out the stupidest and most idiotic of this site.

Yeah...there is that chance for sure.

But, after seeing the movement of QB recently with well over half of NFL team desperately trying to find "their guy" with both the 2021 and 2022 draft class being dismally poor, it struck me on how blessed the Bills are.

With the realization that Josh Allen was never sure thing (if there are any "sure things"...I doubt it) it felt like the right time for the 10,000 ft view.

If one seriously looks at every teams QB situation there are not that many that are content for today and, especially the long run.

[OpIv37]

Lawrence, Stroud and Love may end up in the Elite category soon.

But, did you really need all that to prove that it’s hard to draft a QB? It took us 20 years after Jim Kelly before we found Allen. Miami was about the same between Marino and Tua. Since Elway, the Broncos got a couple decent years out of Peyton and that’s it. Chicago has never had a good QB in the modern era.

[Novacane]

I might be unpopular for saying this, but there's only 1 maybe 2 elite QBs in this league - Mahomes and maybe Burrows.
.
Jackson looks great in the regular season because his athleticism allows him to feast on bad and average defenses, but he can't elevate himself or the others around him when it matters.

Josh has shown elite traits from time to time and there are times where he does things even Mahomes could only dream of doing. But he's just not consistent enough.

Josh lacks something only Mahomes has but Josh is still an elite QB. 29 or 30 other teams would trade their current QB for JA in a heartbeat.

[Novacane]

Beat me to it .... sorry Kenny Burrow is very good ......... but is much much less without his insane level of WR quality that he's surrounded by.

Take away Higgins bye bye Burrow ...... take away Chase bye bye Burrow.

Send those two to Buffalo hello MVP Super Bowl Josh Allen.

Burrow needless to say provides no threat with his legs.

Availability factors into elite as well. Burrow has missed large parts in 2 of his 4 seasons. You want to tell me Mahomes is elite and Josh isn't I'll politely disagree. Tell me Burrow is elite and Josh isn't? Get the **** out of here!

[Novacane]

Lawrence, Stroud and Love may end up in the Elite category soon.

But, did you really need all that to prove that it’s hard to draft a QB? It took us 20 years after Jim Kelly before we found Allen. Miami was about the same between Marino and Tua. Since Elway, the Broncos got a couple decent years out of Peyton and that’s it. Chicago has never had a good QB in the modern era.

Makes what GB has done unbelievable. If Love develops into an elite QB they should be cursed to 100 years of bad QB play when he's done.

[Typ0]

I don't see Allen as an Elite QB until he achieves Elite. Allen has Elite abilities but not an Elite mind for the game. He's really just an average guy being carried forward on exceptional physical abilities and athleticism.

Can he become Elite? Perhaps. But time is ticking and it doesn't look like McDermott has the mustard to help it happen and even if he does he's proven it is probably going to take longer than Josh Allen's career to get there.

If you want Josh Allen to be Elite he's going to need to be matched with a different head coach -- and that is just a chance of a possibility not any guarantee.

[Typ0]

13% isn't rare either...

[Goobylal]

I don't see Allen as an Elite QB until he achieves Elite. Allen has Elite abilities but not an Elite mind for the game. He's really just an average guy being carried forward on exceptional physical abilities and athleticism.

Can he become Elite? Perhaps. But time is ticking and it doesn't look like McDermott has the mustard to help it happen and even if he does he's proven it is probably going to take longer than Josh Allen's career to get there.

If you want Josh Allen to be Elite he's going to need to be matched with a different head coach -- and that is just a chance of a possibility not any guarantee.

LOL!

[jamze132]

Anyone who thinks Josh is not elite isn’t paying attention. It takes more than a ****ing QB to win a Super Bowl

[Typ0]

Anyone who thinks Josh is not elite isn’t paying attention. It takes more than a ****ing QB to win a Super Bowl

Then why is he all too often trying to do it all himself?

[jamze132]

Then why is he all too often trying to do it all himself?

The Bills developed quite the running game after Brady took over. Down the stretch when every game matters, you put the ball into the hands of your best player, that being #17.

[notacon]

Availability factors into elite as well. Burrow has missed large parts in 2 of his 4 seasons. You want to tell me Mahomes is elite and Josh isn't I'll politely disagree. Tell me Burrow is elite and Josh isn't? Get the **** out of here!

Awesome observation.

Josh Allen has the longest streak of consecutive games of 99 without missing one because of injury.

He has only missed FOUR games in his whole career, due to injury between week 7 and 10 his rookie year in 2018 due to sprained right elbow. He was listed as "questionable" for that game and probably could have played.

The Bills came out on fire that day against the woefully bad Jets blowing them out 41-10. Barkley got the start and his first pass was a 47 yard completion to Robert Foster. The next play, Sean McCoy ran 28 yards for a TD, and the Bills led 7-0 after 49 seconds. They out gained the Jests...er....Jets the first quarter 186-1. No need to bring the promising rookie in.

Last game Josh Allen has missed because of injury was week 10, 2018 vs. those NYJ.

He is built like a brick ****house and plays like a bulldozer.

[notacon]

I don't see Allen as an Elite QB until he achieves Elite. Allen has Elite abilities but not an Elite mind for the game. He's really just an average guy being carried forward on exceptional physical abilities and athleticism.

Can he become Elite? Perhaps. But time is ticking and it doesn't look like McDermott has the mustard to help it happen and even if he does he's proven it is probably going to take longer than Josh Allen's career to get there.

If you want Josh Allen to be Elite he's going to need to be matched with a different head coach -- and that is just a chance of a possibility not any guarantee.

Then you have a badly warped definition of what an "elite QB" even means.