I doubt that very much.
In the history (SB Era) of the NFL there has been seven WR's selected in the first round only
ONCE....
2004. That was the year that Larry Fitzgerald went #3 overall and the Bills picked Lee Evans #13.
There have been only
eight years that have been SIX WR's selected in the first round. Not surprisingly all but one (1988) were since 2001 as the rules started to encourage passing games.
1988
2001
2005
2007
2009
2015
2020
2022
Some of today's very best WR's were
not 1st round picks.
Interestingly, only
ONE of the Top Five WR's in 2023 (in yards) was a first round pick. Two (including the #1 WR) were
FIFTH round picks, One 4th round and one 2nd. Rank of the Top 5 and their draft round...
#1 - Tyreek Hill - 5th
#2 - CeeDee Lamb - 1st
#3 - Amon-Ra St Brown - 4th
#4 - Puka Nacua - 5th
$5 - A.J. Brown - 2nd.
The Bills #1 WR, Stefon Diggs (#13 in 2023 receiving yards) was also a
5th round pick.
Yes, first round picks are
more likely to be good WRs' but not overwhelmingly so. Like a substantial percentage of all first round picks, there are more busts or those that do not come close to performing as well as their draft status.
In fact, out of the Top 20 WR in 2023...
9 - 1st round
5 - 2nd round
2 - 3rd round
1 - 4th round
3 - 5th round
With that said, (at least) the past two years
ESPN's Matt Miller has published a list of positions and players that actually deserve a "First Round Grade". As one can guess, it's not close to 32. It's widely understood that usually it's around 15 to 20.
For 2024 (
2023 is here) he lists 18. Broken down by position...
QB - 3
RB - 0
WR - 5
TE - 1
OT - 4
IOL - O
EDGE - 2
DT - 1
LB - 0
CB - 2
S - 0
For WR he lists (including his overall rank..(this varies by analyst)...
Marvin Harrison - 2
Rome Odunze - 3
Malik Nabers - 4
Brian Thomas - 17
Adonai Mitchell - 18
These five are fairly universally given 1st round ranks. The Bills have no chance in hell of getting any of the top 3. No one knows if the next two (Thomas, Mitchell) are reachable via trade up. That's why I will be glued to the TV on Draft Day.
Some analysts rank others within the top 32 with these generally considered coming after the top 5 (I have included
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking within the top 64 or through 2nd round)
Xavier Legette - 28
Ladd McConkey - 29
Xavier Worthy - 33
Keon Coleman - 37
Ricky Pearsall - 45
Troy Franklin - 52
It is not a stretch to believe the Bills could easily draft a "True #1 WR" and with the depth of this draft for WR's it may be almost considered probable that they do just that. QB's, EDGE rushers and OT are draft picks, along with WR. There are only so many that can be selected from the "premium positions".
As usual, WHO they pick is critical. The Bills talent evaluation team has their work cut out for them.