The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

[TheConsigliere]

I doubt that very much.

In the history (SB Era) of the NFL there has been seven WR's selected in the first round only ONCE....2004. That was the year that Larry Fitzgerald went #3 overall and the Bills picked Lee Evans #13.

There have been only eight years that have been SIX WR's selected in the first round. Not surprisingly all but one (1988) were since 2001 as the rules started to encourage passing games.


1988
2001
2005
2007
2009
2015
2020
2022


Some of today's very best WR's were not 1st round picks.

Interestingly, only ONE of the Top Five WR's in 2023 (in yards) was a first round pick. Two (including the #1 WR) were FIFTH round picks, One 4th round and one 2nd. Rank of the Top 5 and their draft round...

#1 - Tyreek Hill - 5th
#2 - CeeDee Lamb - 1st
#3 - Amon-Ra St Brown - 4th
#4 - Puka Nacua - 5th
$5 - A.J. Brown - 2nd.

The Bills #1 WR, Stefon Diggs (#13 in 2023 receiving yards) was also a 5th round pick.

Yes, first round picks are more likely to be good WRs' but not overwhelmingly so. Like a substantial percentage of all first round picks, there are more busts or those that do not come close to performing as well as their draft status.

In fact, out of the Top 20 WR in 2023...

9 - 1st round
5 - 2nd round
2 - 3rd round
1 - 4th round
3 - 5th round

With that said, (at least) the past two years ESPN's Matt Miller has published a list of positions and players that actually deserve a "First Round Grade". As one can guess, it's not close to 32. It's widely understood that usually it's around 15 to 20.

For 2024 (2023 is here) he lists 18. Broken down by position...

QB - 3
RB - 0
WR - 5
TE - 1
OT - 4
IOL - O
EDGE - 2
DT - 1
LB - 0
CB - 2
S - 0

For WR he lists (including his overall rank..(this varies by analyst)...

Marvin Harrison - 2
Rome Odunze - 3
Malik Nabers - 4
Brian Thomas - 17
Adonai Mitchell - 18

These five are fairly universally given 1st round ranks. The Bills have no chance in hell of getting any of the top 3. No one knows if the next two (Thomas, Mitchell) are reachable via trade up. That's why I will be glued to the TV on Draft Day.


Some analysts rank others within the top 32 with these generally considered coming after the top 5 (I have included Scouts, Inc. overall ranking within the top 64 or through 2nd round)

Xavier Legette - 28
Ladd McConkey - 29
Xavier Worthy - 33
Keon Coleman - 37
Ricky Pearsall - 45
Troy Franklin - 52

It is not a stretch to believe the Bills could easily draft a "True #1 WR" and with the depth of this draft for WR's it may be almost considered probable that they do just that. QB's, EDGE rushers and OT are draft picks, along with WR. There are only so many that can be selected from the "premium positions".

As usual, WHO they pick is critical. The Bills talent evaluation team has their work cut out for them.

Myself and Sammy Watkins thank you for the history lesson.

The past is all well and good however the NFL game has become much more of a passing game each and every year and the consensus is that this a deep draft for WRs.

Those 7 WRs are going to be drafted early and often in the 1st round before the Bills draft at 28th.

Count on it.

[TheConsigliere]

WITH THE DIGGS TRADE -- PLEASE IGNORE THIS NOW OUTDATED MOCK

[notacon]

Myself and Sammy Watkins thank you for the history lesson.

The past is all well and good however the NFL game has become much more of a passing game each and every year and the consensus is that this a deep draft for WRs.

Those 7 WRs are going to be drafted early and often in the 1st round before the Bills draft at 28th.

Count on it.

Sorry, but the chances of "7 WRs are going to be drafted early and often in the 1st round before the Bills (or anyone for that matter) draft at 28th." is specious at best.

There is a reason why, even during the emphasis in encouraging the passing game there have been 6 (or 7 just once) WR's taken in the first round since 2000 only eight times.


Out of the eight times there have been 6 or 7 WR selected in the first round, five of those year had picks after #28...and one just one pick ahead at #27...

2001- #30
2004- (the only year with 7 1st rounders) - #29 & #31
2005- #27
2007- #30 & #32
2009- #29 & #30
2015- #29


Yes, the Diggs trade changes the landscape somewhat for the Bills....but not that much. They were always going to get one of the top 7 WR's (and probably one of the top six) even if they stayed at #28.

Now, the Bills can move up and (if they like him enough) to get one of the top three. One of the top 5 is almost a sure thing (if they want him).

In any event, I strongly suspect that the reality of teams spending valuable draft capital on several premium positions, there will almost assuredly NOT be 7 WR selected before #28....and it's likely that there will not be 7 taken in the first round. Although with their year's crop, it would be no surprise.

[Historian]

Now, the Bills can move up and (if they like him enough) to get one of the top three. One of the top 5 is almost a sure thing (if they want him).

In any event, I strongly suspect that the reality of teams spending valuable draft capital on several premium positions, there will almost assuredly NOT be 7 WR selected before #28....and it's likely that there will not be 7 taken in the first round. Although with their year's crop, it would be no surprise.

I hate that term Nota.

"A sure thing"

Perry Tuttle was "a sure thing"

Sammy Watkins was "a sure thing".

I hate moving way up for a wide receiver. We don't need another diva.

Move into the high teens and take the receiver you think has the best work ethic.

[notacon]

I hate that term Nota.

"A sure thing"

Perry Tuttle was "a sure thing"

Sammy Watkins was "a sure thing".

I hate moving way up for a wide receiver. We don't need another diva.

Move into the high teens and take the receiver you think has the best work ethic.

Except I did not say that any WR the Bills pick is a "sure thing" as in success in the NFL.

What I ACTUALLY said was that the Bills being in a position to DRAFT one of the "TOP 5" WR's is "almost a sure thing". That is not even a very controversial premise. It's a fact.

I have no opinion on if it's good to move "way up" for a WR, or even if that is necessary.

What is critical is to draft the player that fits into their offense scheme, and the other players on the offense, and how he is developed.

I have a lot of confidence that the Bills organization (and it take the FULL organization) to accomplish these goals.

[Woodman]

defense defense defense ..... fool everybody.

[TheConsigliere]

defense defense defense ..... fool everybody.

No doubt the Bills would love to draft an elite 1DT however they really have to address the #1 WR position first.

[TheConsigliere]

TEST

[kgun12]

Like I said in another thread, a couple teams have multiple picks in the second and third rounds. If there isn’t a player that the Bills love, I propose something like this.
Offer a team like Washington our 28, 128, 134, and 144 pick.
In return the Bills get their 36 & 67 picks.
That give us 2 2nds and a 3rd.
They could definitely get a DT, S, DE or a couple of these positions or maybe a C and I think in the the top 6-8 picks in the second round the Bills could still get a quality WR. A lot of great receivers aren’t draft in the first round. Carolina has multiple 2nds as well.
The biggest problem is Bean isn’t that patient, lol!

[TheConsigliere]

Like I said in another thread, a couple teams have multiple picks in the second and third rounds. If there isn’t a player that the Bills love, I propose something like this.
Offer a team like Washington our 28, 128, 134, and 144 pick.
In return the Bills get their 36 & 67 picks.
That give us 2 2nds and a 3rd.
They could definitely get a DT, S, DE or a couple of these positions or maybe a C and I think in the the top 6-8 picks in the second round the Bills could still get a quality WR. A lot of great receivers aren’t draft in the first round. Carolina has multiple 2nds as well.
The biggest problem is Bean isn’t that patient, lol!

What do you suggest we do for a #1 WR?

[kgun12]

What do you suggest we do for a #1 WR?

Well I disagree with your thinking about the run on receivers. I actually think a couple will fall to the second round. If not there is the June1 money from White that kicks in and a trade then is possible or there might be a James Lofton type cut in June. But here’s the other side of it. KC has won two SB’s without a true #1 Wr. Yes you can says it’s Kelce and fair point, hopefully we see the same growth in year two as year one from Kincaid. Can you name the great wr’s the Patriots had in their 6 SB wins? Again they had a WB and TE.

[kgun12]

Here’s the flip side to it, if there is a run on receivers like you think, there will be other positions of need available to the Bills at 28.
I saw one of the shows on the NFL Network and they said every year there really is rarely more than 15 true draftees that actually get a first round draft grade. So like I said if there isn’t a player there the Bills truly want or grades out as a number one, trade back. To do this they aren’t get more picks because they would need to throw in some later round picks to make it work, they’re just get more quality higher round picks.

[kgun12]

To my point of the Bills not going WR, saw this article.

Buffalo Bills Mock Draft Roundup, April 4 edition All are at #28

Ryan Wilson (CBS Sports): Chop Robinson, DE (Penn State)
Chris Trepasso (CBS Sports): Ladd McConkey, WR (Georgia)
Keff Ciardello (Pro Football Network): Johnny Newton, DL (Illinois)
Eric Edholm (NFL.com): Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)
Lance Zierlein: (NFL.com): Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)
Ben Standig: (The Athletic): Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)
Danny Kelly: (The Ringer): Troy Franklin, WR (Oregon)
Bleacher Report Scouting Department: Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)
Nick Wright (Fox Sports): Tyler Nubin, S (Minnesota)

[notacon]

Mock drafts are fun. If one gets one third correct (player to team) in the first round they are considered stellar.

I looked up "how accurate NFL mock drafts are" and came up with this interesting score card.

It's a two tiered scoring system. You get ONE point for "players placed in the first round"....that is relatively easy.

Most of the mocks they scored got 26 or 27 correct.

Matching a player to a team in the first round is more difficult, hence one get TWO points for that.

The #1 (tied) score for 2023 was 45 points by Sean Green - Sports Gambling Podcast,. 25 points for correctly mocking players that were selected in the first round, and twenty points by matching 1st round pick with the team. He did that 10 out of 31. Pretty impressive.

Some notable misses was CJ Stroud at #7 to Raiders, and Will Levis #4 to Colts (he went #34 to Tenn). His worst miss was Hendon Hooker #19 to Tampa. He went in the THIRD round. #68 to Detroit.

Green had Kincaid going #18 to Detroit (instead of #25 to Buffalo) and the Bills selecting Myles Murphy DE at #27 . He was close...Murphy went #28 to Cincy.

You can check out his 2023 Mock here, and the actual 2023 draft here.

Not to crap on Mr. Green. It's very difficult to hit 10 1st round picks spot on. What I find most useful with mock drafts is where the (general) consensus is for certain players (especially in the top 10 or 15 picks) and the (general) consensus of player position for each team.

[notacon]

On to what is expected with the Bils draft this year.

The (general) consensus for the Top WR's this year are Marvin Harrison, Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze. It starts fracturing after that but generally you see the same names although the expected draft positions may vary.

Brain Thoms Jr.
Keon Coleman
Ladd McConkey
Adonai Mitchell
Troy Franklin

That's eight WR's which the Bills almost undoubtedly will be in a position to select....if that is what they deem best to do for the team.

Always a possibility is that another area of need...EDGE, DT, S....may have an irresistible prospect drop. Although S does not seem to have any worthwhile 1st round prospects, there are may be an EDGE or DT's worth it....but it's doubtful.

The Bills management and coaching organizations have their work cut out for them.

Everything is pointing toward the Bills going after WR's. Not just in the first round either. They basically OVERTURNED the whole position and rightfully so. We have one of the best QB's in the NFL (I opine the second best) who has a cannon for an arm, is tough, can run and IS the path to a SB.


We have a exciting RB (who can catch the ball)and two TE's in the fold...one (Kincaid) looks like he could develop into the best TE to ever put a Bills uniform on. Shakir looks lie he is ready to explode and has sure hands (86% catch % for the season including playoffs....he catch all but EIGHT of the 57 passes he was targeted with. WR needed an upgrade. Curtis Samuel is a good start.

What is interesting is ESPN's Matt Miller, detailing the prospects that deserve a "first-round grade" Some positions have none....RB, IOL, LB and S.

Positions with one - DT & TE.

Two have two - CB & EDGE

One has three - QB

One has four - OT

One, and the most with FIVE is WR...

Marvin Harrison Jr
Rome Odunze
Malik Nabers
Brain Thoms
Adonai Mitchell

Dane Brugler of The Athletic provides his annual "Top 100" draft prospects.

Only two positions have more than ten in the top 100.

EDGE with eleven.

WR with a whopping SEVENTEEN.

It's little wonder why the Bills cleaned house of WR. The Bills can strengthen the WR postilion for both the short trem and long trem this draft.

They need to nail it!!!

[kgun12]

What if it's the Bills turn to pick and a couple of these guys are available, who do you take? or maybe the better question is which one of these guys would you want?

I've seen drafts with all of them being taken by the Bills at #28 in different drafts.

C Jackson Powers-Johnson, WR Thomas Jr, WR Mitchell, WR McConkey or DL Jer'Zhan Newton and Chop Robinson.

I think I would take C Jackson Powers-Johnson or Thomas Jr only because of need, but I'm a O-line always draft guy. Then you put Power-Johnson at C, then McGovern stays at G extend Brown next season and we have really good a O-line for a long time!

[TheConsigliere]

What if it's the Bills turn to pick and a couple of these guys are available, who do you take? or maybe the better question is which one of these guys would you want?

I've seen drafts with all of them being taken by the Bills at #28 in different drafts.

C Jackson Powers-Johnson, WR Thomas Jr, WR Mitchell, WR McConkey or DL Jer'Zhan Newton and Chop Robinson.

I think I would take C Jackson Powers-Johnson or Thomas Jr only because of need, but I'm a O-line always draft guy. Then you put Power-Johnson at C, then McGovern stays at G extend Brown next season and we have really good a O-line for a long time!

Definitely the Center.

[DetoxTent]

WITH THE DIGGS TRADE -- PLEASE IGNORE THIS NOW OUTDATED MOCK

Ignored it before the trade

[DetoxTent]

Adonai Mitchell

Look at this player. WR. Could be had at #28.

WR Adonai Mitchell to the Bills


Height: 6-2 | Weight: 205


College: Texas


Where Buffalo could get him: Pick No. 28


With the Bills trading away No. 1 wideout Stefon Diggs to the Texans earlier this week, the club can get younger at the position with Mitchell, an explosive-play target with high-end traits. In Buffalo's offense, Mitchell can be set up as a vertical option for quarterback Josh Allen, using his 4.34-second 40-yard dash speed, 39.5-inch vertical and ball skills to win down the field. Plus, he has the toughness to produce after the catch on middle-of-the-field play-action throws, which will allow Allen to rip the ball between the numbers on in-breakers.

In his final season at Texas, Mitchell posted 11 explosive play receptions (catches of 20 or more yards), and he averaged 15.4 yards per catch. The arrow is pointing up on Mitchell, who can develop his route skills in a pro offense.

LINK

[DetoxTent]

On to what is expected with the Bils draft this year.
The (general) consensus for the Top WR's this year are Marvin Harrison, Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze. It starts fracturing after that but generally you see the same names although the expected draft positions may vary.

Brain Thoms Jr.
Keon Coleman
Ladd McConkey
Adonai Mitchell
Troy Franklin
That's eight WR's which the Bills almost undoubtedly will be in a position to select....if that is what they deem best to do for the team.

This is why they don't have to move up. So if they do, it will be for someone they definitely love for this team. Will be interesting to watch.