The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

[kgun12]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

What do you suggest we do for a #1 WR?

Well I disagree with your thinking about the run on receivers. I actually think a couple will fall to the second round. If not there is the June1 money from White that kicks in and a trade then is possible or there might be a James Lofton type cut in June. But here’s the other side of it. KC has won two SB’s without a true #1 Wr. Yes you can says it’s Kelce and fair point, hopefully we see the same growth in year two as year one from Kincaid. Can you name the great wr’s the Patriots had in their 6 SB wins? Again they had a WB and TE.

[kgun12]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

Here’s the flip side to it, if there is a run on receivers like you think, there will be other positions of need available to the Bills at 28.
I saw one of the shows on the NFL Network and they said every year there really is rarely more than 15 true draftees that actually get a first round draft grade. So like I said if there isn’t a player there the Bills truly want or grades out as a number one, trade back. To do this they aren’t get more picks because they would need to throw in some later round picks to make it work, they’re just get more quality higher round picks.

[kgun12]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

To my point of the Bills not going WR, saw this article.

Buffalo Bills Mock Draft Roundup, April 4 edition All are at #28

Ryan Wilson (CBS Sports): Chop Robinson, DE (Penn State)
Chris Trepasso (CBS Sports): Ladd McConkey, WR (Georgia)
Keff Ciardello (Pro Football Network): Johnny Newton, DL (Illinois)
Eric Edholm (NFL.com): Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)
Lance Zierlein: (NFL.com): Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)
Ben Standig: (The Athletic): Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)
Danny Kelly: (The Ringer): Troy Franklin, WR (Oregon)
Bleacher Report Scouting Department: Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)
Nick Wright (Fox Sports): Tyler Nubin, S (Minnesota)

[notacon]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

Mock drafts are fun. If one gets one third correct (player to team) in the first round they are considered stellar.

I looked up "how accurate NFL mock drafts are" and came up with this interesting score card.

It's a two tiered scoring system. You get ONE point for "players placed in the first round"....that is relatively easy.

Most of the mocks they scored got 26 or 27 correct.

Matching a player to a team in the first round is more difficult, hence one get TWO points for that.

The #1 (tied) score for 2023 was 45 points by Sean Green - Sports Gambling Podcast,. 25 points for correctly mocking players that were selected in the first round, and twenty points by matching 1st round pick with the team. He did that 10 out of 31. Pretty impressive.

Some notable misses was CJ Stroud at #7 to Raiders, and Will Levis #4 to Colts (he went #34 to Tenn). His worst miss was Hendon Hooker #19 to Tampa. He went in the THIRD round. #68 to Detroit.

Green had Kincaid going #18 to Detroit (instead of #25 to Buffalo) and the Bills selecting Myles Murphy DE at #27 . He was close...Murphy went #28 to Cincy.

You can check out his 2023 Mock here, and the actual 2023 draft here.

Not to crap on Mr. Green. It's very difficult to hit 10 1st round picks spot on. What I find most useful with mock drafts is where the (general) consensus is for certain players (especially in the top 10 or 15 picks) and the (general) consensus of player position for each team.

[notacon]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

On to what is expected with the Bils draft this year.

The (general) consensus for the Top WR's this year are Marvin Harrison, Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze. It starts fracturing after that but generally you see the same names although the expected draft positions may vary.

Brain Thoms Jr.
Keon Coleman
Ladd McConkey
Adonai Mitchell
Troy Franklin

That's eight WR's which the Bills almost undoubtedly will be in a position to select....if that is what they deem best to do for the team.

Always a possibility is that another area of need...EDGE, DT, S....may have an irresistible prospect drop. Although S does not seem to have any worthwhile 1st round prospects, there are may be an EDGE or DT's worth it....but it's doubtful.

The Bills management and coaching organizations have their work cut out for them.

Everything is pointing toward the Bills going after WR's. Not just in the first round either. They basically OVERTURNED the whole position and rightfully so. We have one of the best QB's in the NFL (I opine the second best) who has a cannon for an arm, is tough, can run and IS the path to a SB.


We have a exciting RB (who can catch the ball)and two TE's in the fold...one (Kincaid) looks like he could develop into the best TE to ever put a Bills uniform on. Shakir looks lie he is ready to explode and has sure hands (86% catch % for the season including playoffs....he catch all but EIGHT of the 57 passes he was targeted with. WR needed an upgrade. Curtis Samuel is a good start.

What is interesting is ESPN's Matt Miller, detailing the prospects that deserve a "first-round grade" Some positions have none....RB, IOL, LB and S.

Positions with one - DT & TE.

Two have two - CB & EDGE

One has three - QB

One has four - OT

One, and the most with FIVE is WR...

Marvin Harrison Jr
Rome Odunze
Malik Nabers
Brain Thoms
Adonai Mitchell

Dane Brugler of The Athletic provides his annual "Top 100" draft prospects.

Only two positions have more than ten in the top 100.

EDGE with eleven.

WR with a whopping SEVENTEEN.

It's little wonder why the Bills cleaned house of WR. The Bills can strengthen the WR postilion for both the short trem and long trem this draft.

They need to nail it!!!

[kgun12]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

What if it's the Bills turn to pick and a couple of these guys are available, who do you take? or maybe the better question is which one of these guys would you want?

I've seen drafts with all of them being taken by the Bills at #28 in different drafts.

C Jackson Powers-Johnson, WR Thomas Jr, WR Mitchell, WR McConkey or DL Jer'Zhan Newton and Chop Robinson.

I think I would take C Jackson Powers-Johnson or Thomas Jr only because of need, but I'm a O-line always draft guy. Then you put Power-Johnson at C, then McGovern stays at G extend Brown next season and we have really good a O-line for a long time!

[TheConsigliere]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

What if it's the Bills turn to pick and a couple of these guys are available, who do you take? or maybe the better question is which one of these guys would you want?

I've seen drafts with all of them being taken by the Bills at #28 in different drafts.

C Jackson Powers-Johnson, WR Thomas Jr, WR Mitchell, WR McConkey or DL Jer'Zhan Newton and Chop Robinson.

I think I would take C Jackson Powers-Johnson or Thomas Jr only because of need, but I'm a O-line always draft guy. Then you put Power-Johnson at C, then McGovern stays at G extend Brown next season and we have really good a O-line for a long time!

Definitely the Center.

[DetoxTent]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

WITH THE DIGGS TRADE -- PLEASE IGNORE THIS NOW OUTDATED MOCK

Ignored it before the trade

[DetoxTent]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

Adonai Mitchell

Look at this player. WR. Could be had at #28.

WR Adonai Mitchell to the Bills


Height: 6-2 | Weight: 205


College: Texas


Where Buffalo could get him: Pick No. 28


With the Bills trading away No. 1 wideout Stefon Diggs to the Texans earlier this week, the club can get younger at the position with Mitchell, an explosive-play target with high-end traits. In Buffalo's offense, Mitchell can be set up as a vertical option for quarterback Josh Allen, using his 4.34-second 40-yard dash speed, 39.5-inch vertical and ball skills to win down the field. Plus, he has the toughness to produce after the catch on middle-of-the-field play-action throws, which will allow Allen to rip the ball between the numbers on in-breakers.

In his final season at Texas, Mitchell posted 11 explosive play receptions (catches of 20 or more yards), and he averaged 15.4 yards per catch. The arrow is pointing up on Mitchell, who can develop his route skills in a pro offense.

LINK

[DetoxTent]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

On to what is expected with the Bils draft this year.
The (general) consensus for the Top WR's this year are Marvin Harrison, Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze. It starts fracturing after that but generally you see the same names although the expected draft positions may vary.

Brain Thoms Jr.
Keon Coleman
Ladd McConkey
Adonai Mitchell
Troy Franklin
That's eight WR's which the Bills almost undoubtedly will be in a position to select....if that is what they deem best to do for the team.

This is why they don't have to move up. So if they do, it will be for someone they definitely love for this team. Will be interesting to watch.

[Canadian'eh!]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

A true #1WR?

Not where we draft at 28th.

7 WRs will be gone by then.

Jefferson is predicted to go in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.

How is 60th overall a reach?

You should check more than just Walter Football then.

They might call him a 2nd-3rd, but most everyone else has him as a high of 4th to 6th range.

[Canadian'eh!]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

Myself and Sammy Watkins thank you for the history lesson.

The past is all well and good however the NFL game has become much more of a passing game each and every year and the consensus is that this a deep draft for WRs.

Those 7 WRs are going to be drafted early and often in the 1st round before the Bills draft at 28th.

Count on it.

I don’t think you can “count” on 7 WRs going before the Bills.

[TheConsigliere]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

I don’t think you can “count” on 7 WRs going before the Bills.

Who is counting?

I hope NO WRs are drafted BEFORE the Bills draft in the 1st.

[Woodman]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

Who is counting?

I hope NO WRs are drafted BEFORE the Bills draft in the 1st.

We might need to move up to 9th overall.

[notacon]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

This is why they don't have to move up. So if they do, it will be for someone they definitely love for this team. Will be interesting to watch.

I agree. "Have to" and "want to" are two totally different things.

But they still might to grab one of the Top 3.

Like last year they may move up a few spots "for someone they definitely love for this team" to go in front of a team they believe has their eye on him.

You bet your ass "Will be interesting to watch" It is astounding the see how the NFL has made the draft "must see" TV. I'll be glued to the TV for the first two rounds for sure.

The Athletic published an interesting analysis from their beat writers of "the biggest remaining needs for all 32 NFL teams"

Only three teams are presented with WR their "biggest need".

Arizona
LA Chargers
Buffalo Bills

Notably, those other teams have much higher draft positions than the Bills.

Of course this does not mean that other teams will pass on WR's because it's not their "biggest need". Much depends on their draft board and the likelihood of getting their highest graded player.

It would be amazing to actually see the Bills draft board. A secret more closely kept than a certain presidential candidate tax returns.