The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

[Bill Cody]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

After further research for the Bills 2nd round draft pick, the consensus is that FSU’s Keon Coleman is just too slow to get separation in the NFL and thus not worth the Bills drafting in the 2nd round.

When it comes to a true 1DT, it appears that with Sweat’s weight ballooning to 366 lbs, he has been tagged with the lazy label and dropping like a stone down team’s draft boards.

A 1DT run stopper who can free up Ed Oliver to be the dominant inside force as he was in college by taking up two blockers would really take our D to the next level.

As such, with the 60th pick of the NFL Draft the bills draft….



Jordan Jefferson*, DT, LSU

Height: 6-2. Weight: 323.
Projected 40 Time: 5.10.
Projected Round (2024): 2-3.



3/16/24: The big and strong nose tackle Jefferson impressed team evaluators with his play in 2023. The Navarre, Florida product was a tough run defender in the middle of the defensive line for the Tigers. He collected 36 tackles, 2.5 sacks and pass defended in 2023. As junior, he recorded three sacks and 31 tackles. Jefferson has good size for the NFL and could be a physical interior defender as a pro. He had a quality week of practice at the Senior Bowl.

https://walterfootball.com/draft2024DT.php

Jefferson is a Junior and need not start for the Bills in 2024. He will join the DT rotation and take over the starting role in 2025.

so this draft is no Sweat?

[Oaf]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

Future at IOL and IDL is fine with me. If PM can win 2 SBs w his WR cast + Kelce, JA can win with ours + Kincaid/Knox

[TheConsigliere]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

so this draft is no Sweat?

He was my first choice for a 1DT in the 2nd round but the fat bastard blew up to 366 lbs and the reports of his performance at that weight are NOT good.

You think we should draft him and Weight Watcher him?

Seems risky.

- - - Updated - - -

Future at IOL and IDL is fine with me. If PM can win 2 SBs w his WR cast + Kelce, JA can win with ours + Kincaid/Knox

I think there is a need for Diggs replacement in 2025 or beyond but I just don't see that guy when we draft.

[notacon]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

A true #1WR?

Not where we draft at 28th.

7 WRs will be gone by then.

Jefferson is predicted to go in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.

How is 60th overall a reach?

I doubt that very much.

In the history (SB Era) of the NFL there has been seven WR's selected in the first round only ONCE....2004. That was the year that Larry Fitzgerald went #3 overall and the Bills picked Lee Evans #13.

There have been only eight years that have been SIX WR's selected in the first round. Not surprisingly all but one (1988) were since 2001 as the rules started to encourage passing games.


1988
2001
2005
2007
2009
2015
2020
2022


Some of today's very best WR's were not 1st round picks.

Interestingly, only ONE of the Top Five WR's in 2023 (in yards) was a first round pick. Two (including the #1 WR) were FIFTH round picks, One 4th round and one 2nd. Rank of the Top 5 and their draft round...

#1 - Tyreek Hill - 5th
#2 - CeeDee Lamb - 1st
#3 - Amon-Ra St Brown - 4th
#4 - Puka Nacua - 5th
$5 - A.J. Brown - 2nd.

The Bills #1 WR, Stefon Diggs (#13 in 2023 receiving yards) was also a 5th round pick.

Yes, first round picks are more likely to be good WRs' but not overwhelmingly so. Like a substantial percentage of all first round picks, there are more busts or those that do not come close to performing as well as their draft status.

In fact, out of the Top 20 WR in 2023...

9 - 1st round
5 - 2nd round
2 - 3rd round
1 - 4th round
3 - 5th round

With that said, (at least) the past two years ESPN's Matt Miller has published a list of positions and players that actually deserve a "First Round Grade". As one can guess, it's not close to 32. It's widely understood that usually it's around 15 to 20.

For 2024 (2023 is here) he lists 18. Broken down by position...

QB - 3
RB - 0
WR - 5
TE - 1
OT - 4
IOL - O
EDGE - 2
DT - 1
LB - 0
CB - 2
S - 0

For WR he lists (including his overall rank..(this varies by analyst)...

Marvin Harrison - 2
Rome Odunze - 3
Malik Nabers - 4
Brian Thomas - 17
Adonai Mitchell - 18

These five are fairly universally given 1st round ranks. The Bills have no chance in hell of getting any of the top 3. No one knows if the next two (Thomas, Mitchell) are reachable via trade up. That's why I will be glued to the TV on Draft Day.


Some analysts rank others within the top 32 with these generally considered coming after the top 5 (I have included Scouts, Inc. overall ranking within the top 64 or through 2nd round)

Xavier Legette - 28
Ladd McConkey - 29
Xavier Worthy - 33
Keon Coleman - 37
Ricky Pearsall - 45
Troy Franklin - 52

It is not a stretch to believe the Bills could easily draft a "True #1 WR" and with the depth of this draft for WR's it may be almost considered probable that they do just that. QB's, EDGE rushers and OT are draft picks, along with WR. There are only so many that can be selected from the "premium positions".

As usual, WHO they pick is critical. The Bills talent evaluation team has their work cut out for them.

[Mad Max]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

To the Eastside

To a deeeluxe apartment in the skyhihi

[TheConsigliere]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

I doubt that very much.

In the history (SB Era) of the NFL there has been seven WR's selected in the first round only ONCE....2004. That was the year that Larry Fitzgerald went #3 overall and the Bills picked Lee Evans #13.

There have been only eight years that have been SIX WR's selected in the first round. Not surprisingly all but one (1988) were since 2001 as the rules started to encourage passing games.


1988
2001
2005
2007
2009
2015
2020
2022


Some of today's very best WR's were not 1st round picks.

Interestingly, only ONE of the Top Five WR's in 2023 (in yards) was a first round pick. Two (including the #1 WR) were FIFTH round picks, One 4th round and one 2nd. Rank of the Top 5 and their draft round...

#1 - Tyreek Hill - 5th
#2 - CeeDee Lamb - 1st
#3 - Amon-Ra St Brown - 4th
#4 - Puka Nacua - 5th
$5 - A.J. Brown - 2nd.

The Bills #1 WR, Stefon Diggs (#13 in 2023 receiving yards) was also a 5th round pick.

Yes, first round picks are more likely to be good WRs' but not overwhelmingly so. Like a substantial percentage of all first round picks, there are more busts or those that do not come close to performing as well as their draft status.

In fact, out of the Top 20 WR in 2023...

9 - 1st round
5 - 2nd round
2 - 3rd round
1 - 4th round
3 - 5th round

With that said, (at least) the past two years ESPN's Matt Miller has published a list of positions and players that actually deserve a "First Round Grade". As one can guess, it's not close to 32. It's widely understood that usually it's around 15 to 20.

For 2024 (2023 is here) he lists 18. Broken down by position...

QB - 3
RB - 0
WR - 5
TE - 1
OT - 4
IOL - O
EDGE - 2
DT - 1
LB - 0
CB - 2
S - 0

For WR he lists (including his overall rank..(this varies by analyst)...

Marvin Harrison - 2
Rome Odunze - 3
Malik Nabers - 4
Brian Thomas - 17
Adonai Mitchell - 18

These five are fairly universally given 1st round ranks. The Bills have no chance in hell of getting any of the top 3. No one knows if the next two (Thomas, Mitchell) are reachable via trade up. That's why I will be glued to the TV on Draft Day.


Some analysts rank others within the top 32 with these generally considered coming after the top 5 (I have included Scouts, Inc. overall ranking within the top 64 or through 2nd round)

Xavier Legette - 28
Ladd McConkey - 29
Xavier Worthy - 33
Keon Coleman - 37
Ricky Pearsall - 45
Troy Franklin - 52

It is not a stretch to believe the Bills could easily draft a "True #1 WR" and with the depth of this draft for WR's it may be almost considered probable that they do just that. QB's, EDGE rushers and OT are draft picks, along with WR. There are only so many that can be selected from the "premium positions".

As usual, WHO they pick is critical. The Bills talent evaluation team has their work cut out for them.

Myself and Sammy Watkins thank you for the history lesson.

The past is all well and good however the NFL game has become much more of a passing game each and every year and the consensus is that this a deep draft for WRs.

Those 7 WRs are going to be drafted early and often in the 1st round before the Bills draft at 28th.

Count on it.

[TheConsigliere]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version



WITH THE DIGGS TRADE -- PLEASE IGNORE THIS NOW OUTDATED MOCK

[notacon]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

Myself and Sammy Watkins thank you for the history lesson.

The past is all well and good however the NFL game has become much more of a passing game each and every year and the consensus is that this a deep draft for WRs.

Those 7 WRs are going to be drafted early and often in the 1st round before the Bills draft at 28th.

Count on it.

Sorry, but the chances of "7 WRs are going to be drafted early and often in the 1st round before the Bills (or anyone for that matter) draft at 28th." is specious at best.

There is a reason why, even during the emphasis in encouraging the passing game there have been 6 (or 7 just once) WR's taken in the first round since 2000 only eight times.


Out of the eight times there have been 6 or 7 WR selected in the first round, five of those year had picks after #28...and one just one pick ahead at #27...

2001- #30
2004- (the only year with 7 1st rounders) - #29 & #31
2005- #27
2007- #30 & #32
2009- #29 & #30
2015- #29


Yes, the Diggs trade changes the landscape somewhat for the Bills....but not that much. They were always going to get one of the top 7 WR's (and probably one of the top six) even if they stayed at #28.

Now, the Bills can move up and (if they like him enough) to get one of the top three. One of the top 5 is almost a sure thing (if they want him).

In any event, I strongly suspect that the reality of teams spending valuable draft capital on several premium positions, there will almost assuredly NOT be 7 WR selected before #28....and it's likely that there will not be 7 taken in the first round. Although with their year's crop, it would be no surprise.

[Historian]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

Now, the Bills can move up and (if they like him enough) to get one of the top three. One of the top 5 is almost a sure thing (if they want him).

In any event, I strongly suspect that the reality of teams spending valuable draft capital on several premium positions, there will almost assuredly NOT be 7 WR selected before #28....and it's likely that there will not be 7 taken in the first round. Although with their year's crop, it would be no surprise.

I hate that term Nota.

"A sure thing"

Perry Tuttle was "a sure thing"

Sammy Watkins was "a sure thing".

I hate moving way up for a wide receiver. We don't need another diva.

Move into the high teens and take the receiver you think has the best work ethic.

[notacon]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

I hate that term Nota.

"A sure thing"

Perry Tuttle was "a sure thing"

Sammy Watkins was "a sure thing".

I hate moving way up for a wide receiver. We don't need another diva.

Move into the high teens and take the receiver you think has the best work ethic.

Except I did not say that any WR the Bills pick is a "sure thing" as in success in the NFL.

What I ACTUALLY said was that the Bills being in a position to DRAFT one of the "TOP 5" WR's is "almost a sure thing". That is not even a very controversial premise. It's a fact.

I have no opinion on if it's good to move "way up" for a WR, or even if that is necessary.

What is critical is to draft the player that fits into their offense scheme, and the other players on the offense, and how he is developed.

I have a lot of confidence that the Bills organization (and it take the FULL organization) to accomplish these goals.

[Woodman]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

defense defense defense ..... fool everybody.

[TheConsigliere]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

defense defense defense ..... fool everybody.

No doubt the Bills would love to draft an elite 1DT however they really have to address the #1 WR position first.

[TheConsigliere]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

TEST

[kgun12]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

Like I said in another thread, a couple teams have multiple picks in the second and third rounds. If there isn’t a player that the Bills love, I propose something like this.
Offer a team like Washington our 28, 128, 134, and 144 pick.
In return the Bills get their 36 & 67 picks.
That give us 2 2nds and a 3rd.
They could definitely get a DT, S, DE or a couple of these positions or maybe a C and I think in the the top 6-8 picks in the second round the Bills could still get a quality WR. A lot of great receivers aren’t draft in the first round. Carolina has multiple 2nds as well.
The biggest problem is Bean isn’t that patient, lol!

[TheConsigliere]

Re: The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

Like I said in another thread, a couple teams have multiple picks in the second and third rounds. If there isn’t a player that the Bills love, I propose something like this.
Offer a team like Washington our 28, 128, 134, and 144 pick.
In return the Bills get their 36 & 67 picks.
That give us 2 2nds and a 3rd.
They could definitely get a DT, S, DE or a couple of these positions or maybe a C and I think in the the top 6-8 picks in the second round the Bills could still get a quality WR. A lot of great receivers aren’t draft in the first round. Carolina has multiple 2nds as well.
The biggest problem is Bean isn’t that patient, lol!

What do you suggest we do for a #1 WR?