The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

[TheConsigliere]

We only do the Bills picks and we use multiple mock draft sites to determine availability.


We have the Bills first 3 draft picks set — remember NO 3rd pick currently — and will reveal them one by one.


With the Bills 1st round pick (28th overall) the Bills with NO trade draft…


1. Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon

Height: 6-3. Weight: 334.
Projected 40 Time: 5.30.
Projected Round (2024): 1-2.


3/9/24: It took some time over an odd journey, but eventually Powers-Johnson turned himself into an impactful player for the Ducks. Back in 2021, he was a backup who played defensive line in an emergency role to close out that season. He was back to being a backup in 2022, but took over as the starting center in 2023 and had a superb season. Powers-Johnson is a heavy center who looks like a safe pick to be a solid pro starter. He is a strong run blocker and reliable in pass protection.


https://walterfootball.com/draft2024C.php



We considered Duke’s Barton however he plays with short arms, has moved around the OL and is lighter than Jackson P-J. Jackson is a true Center and a much safer bet to be plugged in and start at the position from day one for the long time.

We just did not see a WR fall to the Bills at 28th overall that would be worth a 1st round pick that could replace Diggs ever as the #1 WR. Plenty of #2 WRs there but we have a couple already competing there and any WR drafted there would be 2nd or 3rd on the #2 WR depth chart in his rookie year. The Bills are in a win now mode so that doesn’t work for their first pick of the draft.

[TheConsigliere]

We have 7 WRs being drafted in the 1st round.


Due to Keon Coleman’s slow 40 speed, We have him dropping out of the first around and available in the middle of the 2nd round.


The issue is whether the Bills roll dice for the larger but slow WR to fall to their pick at #60 or trade up a little to nab him.

The Bills could combine their 2nd round pick with one of their two 4th round picks and perhaps even one of their 5th round picks to move up within the 2nd round to draft Coleman.


There is a lot of doubt in our minds whether Coleman could ever be a #1 WR in the NFL. If he did, it would take at least 2 if not 3 years.


It may make more sense to draft a true 1DT with this 2nd round pick like Texas’ Sweat or LSU’s Jefferson who should be there when the Bills pick.


We have to think about this some more

[Oaf]

DOWN for a stud IOL + Keon Coleman trade up.

IDL is not a bad move either, with slight preference to this first scenario.

[TheConsigliere]

DOWN for a stud IOL + Keon Coleman trade up.

IDL is not a bad move either, with slight preference to this first scenario.

Who do you like among the 1DTs that could take on 2 blockers, stuff the run, get some pressure up the middle on the QB when not double teamed and Make Ed Oliver College Great Again ?

[TheConsigliere]

After further research for the Bills 2nd round draft pick, the consensus is that FSU’s Keon Coleman is just too slow to get separation in the NFL and thus not worth the Bills drafting in the 2nd round.

When it comes to a true 1DT, it appears that with Sweat’s weight ballooning to 366 lbs, he has been tagged with the lazy label and dropping like a stone down team’s draft boards.

A 1DT run stopper who can free up Ed Oliver to be the dominant inside force as he was in college by taking up two blockers would really take our D to the next level.

As such, with the 60th pick of the NFL Draft the bills draft….



Jordan Jefferson*, DT, LSU

Height: 6-2. Weight: 323.
Projected 40 Time: 5.10.
Projected Round (2024): 2-3.



3/16/24: The big and strong nose tackle Jefferson impressed team evaluators with his play in 2023. The Navarre, Florida product was a tough run defender in the middle of the defensive line for the Tigers. He collected 36 tackles, 2.5 sacks and pass defended in 2023. As junior, he recorded three sacks and 31 tackles. Jefferson has good size for the NFL and could be a physical interior defender as a pro. He had a quality week of practice at the Senior Bowl.

https://walterfootball.com/draft2024DT.php


Jefferson is a Junior and need not start for the Bills in 2024. He will join the DT rotation and take over the starting role in 2025.

[TheConsigliere]

No one excited about Jefferson?

[Forward_Lateral]

No one excited about Jefferson?

I am

He's movin on up

[YardRat]

lol

[Turf]

I am

He's movin on up

To the Eastside

[TheConsigliere]

I am

He's movin on up

Well I hope he finally gets a piece of the P-I-E...


Well we're movin' on up, to the east side
To a deluxe apartment in the sky
Movin on up
To the east side
We finally got a piece of the pie
Fish don't fry in the kitchen;
Beans don't burn on the grill
Took a whole lotta tryin'
Just to get up that hill
Now we're up in the big leagues
Gettin' our turn at bat
As long as we live, it's you and me baby
There ain't nothin wrong with that
Well we're movin on up
To the east side
To a deluxe apartment in the sky
Movin on up
To the east side
We finally got a piece of the pie

[TheConsigliere]

The Bills have NO 3rd round draft pick.

They do have two 4th round draft picks, three 5th round draft picks, three 6th round picks and one 7th round pick.


This is already a strong roster so we don’t see anyone drafted in the 5th, 6th and 7th round making the team.


If there were trading partners, we would love to convert all those picks into a late 3rd round pick and a late 4th round pick.

Perhaps keep the 7th rounder for a flyer.


We will proceed on the basis of the Bills having the following draft picks remaining after their first two draft picks listed above:

(a) a late 3rd round draft pick;
(b) a late 4th round draft pick; and
(c) their existing 7th round pick.


Fair enough?

[Canadian'eh!]

After further research for the Bills 2nd round draft pick, the consensus is that FSU’s Keon Coleman is just too slow to get separation in the NFL and thus not worth the Bills drafting in the 2nd round.

When it comes to a true 1DT, it appears that with Sweat’s weight ballooning to 366 lbs, he has been tagged with the lazy label and dropping like a stone down team’s draft boards.

A 1DT run stopper who can free up Ed Oliver to be the dominant inside force as he was in college by taking up two blockers would really take our D to the next level.

As such, with the 60th pick of the NFL Draft the bills draft….



Jordan Jefferson*, DT, LSU

Height: 6-2. Weight: 323.
Projected 40 Time: 5.10.
Projected Round (2024): 2-3.



3/16/24: The big and strong nose tackle Jefferson impressed team evaluators with his play in 2023. The Navarre, Florida product was a tough run defender in the middle of the defensive line for the Tigers. He collected 36 tackles, 2.5 sacks and pass defended in 2023. As junior, he recorded three sacks and 31 tackles. Jefferson has good size for the NFL and could be a physical interior defender as a pro. He had a quality week of practice at the Senior Bowl.

https://walterfootball.com/draft2024DT.php


Jefferson is a Junior and need not start for the Bills in 2024. He will join the DT rotation and take over the starting role in 2025.

He’s a pretty big reach in round 2.

No WR early? D-

[TheConsigliere]

He’s a pretty big reach in round 2.

No WR early? D-

A true #1WR?

Not where we draft at 28th.

7 WRs will be gone by then.

Jefferson is predicted to go in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.

How is 60th overall a reach?

[Woodman]

To the Eastside

Easy Weezy.

[Woodman]

I like big butts I can not lie.

Woodman Consigliere

[Bill Cody]

After further research for the Bills 2nd round draft pick, the consensus is that FSU’s Keon Coleman is just too slow to get separation in the NFL and thus not worth the Bills drafting in the 2nd round.

When it comes to a true 1DT, it appears that with Sweat’s weight ballooning to 366 lbs, he has been tagged with the lazy label and dropping like a stone down team’s draft boards.

A 1DT run stopper who can free up Ed Oliver to be the dominant inside force as he was in college by taking up two blockers would really take our D to the next level.

As such, with the 60th pick of the NFL Draft the bills draft….



Jordan Jefferson*, DT, LSU

Height: 6-2. Weight: 323.
Projected 40 Time: 5.10.
Projected Round (2024): 2-3.



3/16/24: The big and strong nose tackle Jefferson impressed team evaluators with his play in 2023. The Navarre, Florida product was a tough run defender in the middle of the defensive line for the Tigers. He collected 36 tackles, 2.5 sacks and pass defended in 2023. As junior, he recorded three sacks and 31 tackles. Jefferson has good size for the NFL and could be a physical interior defender as a pro. He had a quality week of practice at the Senior Bowl.

https://walterfootball.com/draft2024DT.php


Jefferson is a Junior and need not start for the Bills in 2024. He will join the DT rotation and take over the starting role in 2025.

so this draft is no Sweat?

[Oaf]

Future at IOL and IDL is fine with me. If PM can win 2 SBs w his WR cast + Kelce, JA can win with ours + Kincaid/Knox

[TheConsigliere]

so this draft is no Sweat?

He was my first choice for a 1DT in the 2nd round but the fat bastard blew up to 366 lbs and the reports of his performance at that weight are NOT good.

You think we should draft him and Weight Watcher him?

Seems risky.

- - - Updated - - -

Future at IOL and IDL is fine with me. If PM can win 2 SBs w his WR cast + Kelce, JA can win with ours + Kincaid/Knox

I think there is a need for Diggs replacement in 2025 or beyond but I just don't see that guy when we draft.

[notacon]

A true #1WR?

Not where we draft at 28th.

7 WRs will be gone by then.

Jefferson is predicted to go in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.

How is 60th overall a reach?

I doubt that very much.

In the history (SB Era) of the NFL there has been seven WR's selected in the first round only ONCE....2004. That was the year that Larry Fitzgerald went #3 overall and the Bills picked Lee Evans #13.

There have been only eight years that have been SIX WR's selected in the first round. Not surprisingly all but one (1988) were since 2001 as the rules started to encourage passing games.


1988
2001
2005
2007
2009
2015
2020
2022


Some of today's very best WR's were not 1st round picks.

Interestingly, only ONE of the Top Five WR's in 2023 (in yards) was a first round pick. Two (including the #1 WR) were FIFTH round picks, One 4th round and one 2nd. Rank of the Top 5 and their draft round...

#1 - Tyreek Hill - 5th
#2 - CeeDee Lamb - 1st
#3 - Amon-Ra St Brown - 4th
#4 - Puka Nacua - 5th
$5 - A.J. Brown - 2nd.

The Bills #1 WR, Stefon Diggs (#13 in 2023 receiving yards) was also a 5th round pick.

Yes, first round picks are more likely to be good WRs' but not overwhelmingly so. Like a substantial percentage of all first round picks, there are more busts or those that do not come close to performing as well as their draft status.

In fact, out of the Top 20 WR in 2023...

9 - 1st round
5 - 2nd round
2 - 3rd round
1 - 4th round
3 - 5th round

With that said, (at least) the past two years ESPN's Matt Miller has published a list of positions and players that actually deserve a "First Round Grade". As one can guess, it's not close to 32. It's widely understood that usually it's around 15 to 20.

For 2024 (2023 is here) he lists 18. Broken down by position...

QB - 3
RB - 0
WR - 5
TE - 1
OT - 4
IOL - O
EDGE - 2
DT - 1
LB - 0
CB - 2
S - 0

For WR he lists (including his overall rank..(this varies by analyst)...

Marvin Harrison - 2
Rome Odunze - 3
Malik Nabers - 4
Brian Thomas - 17
Adonai Mitchell - 18

These five are fairly universally given 1st round ranks. The Bills have no chance in hell of getting any of the top 3. No one knows if the next two (Thomas, Mitchell) are reachable via trade up. That's why I will be glued to the TV on Draft Day.


Some analysts rank others within the top 32 with these generally considered coming after the top 5 (I have included Scouts, Inc. overall ranking within the top 64 or through 2nd round)

Xavier Legette - 28
Ladd McConkey - 29
Xavier Worthy - 33
Keon Coleman - 37
Ricky Pearsall - 45
Troy Franklin - 52

It is not a stretch to believe the Bills could easily draft a "True #1 WR" and with the depth of this draft for WR's it may be almost considered probable that they do just that. QB's, EDGE rushers and OT are draft picks, along with WR. There are only so many that can be selected from the "premium positions".

As usual, WHO they pick is critical. The Bills talent evaluation team has their work cut out for them.

[Mad Max]

To the Eastside

To a deeeluxe apartment in the skyhihi