If the Bills go "All In" for Marvin Harrison JR, How would you feel?

[cookie G]

This is the type of trade up I can get down with...

https://x.com/BuiltInBuffalo_/status...27980256374977

The Bills give up a 4th and their 3rd next year to move up to 17 and take Brian Thomas Jr., the consensus 4th ranked WR in the class.

Of note, in their sim, they tried to trade up to 15 and offered one of next year's second round picks, but it was rejected.

That is a little more realistic, IMO. I don't know if a 4th and next year's third will do it. But I'd be willing to part with one of the 2nds next year for Thomas.

[notacon]

KCs issues were not there play makers, there O-line was terrible, I'd be shocked if they don't take a o-lineman esp if theres a tackle there.

Maybe. Maybe not.

Get ready for a lot of "shocks" in the draft as there always are.

I approach the draft like I do a murder mystery story. Enjoy the ride and shun any spoilers.

[notacon]

Yeah, I read his justification. He's still talking about giving away 2 no. 1 picks, a 2nd and a 4th for a WR, in a relatively deep class. Its cute speculation, but its also mortgaging the future for one non-QB player. Its far closer to Russ Brandon than it is Brandon Beane.

Maybe. Maybe not.

I am not endorsing nor shunning the justification or even trying to guess (and that's what it is is...PURE GUESS) what Beane either has planned or what he will do. Of course, what he actually ends up doing is predicated on a LOT of factors (almost all) outside his control.

I am not endorsing or shunning either Joe B's mock or Chris Trapasso's (trading down)

The only draft pick that is a sure thing (as in you have compete control) is the first overall.

I do NOT want to be in Beane's shoes. It's a very, very difficult job. Most here like to bloviate that they know what's best, but I strongly suspect that if they had to make these decisions, with the team's future very much on the line, it's more likely we would roll up in the fetal position in a corner.

We have the freedom to bloviate (and that's what we are ALL doing concerning a draft) without threatening anything of value....like our jobs....jobs that literally pay millions of dollars.

That's why it's so much fun.

[notacon]

I heard the podcast, again, its interesting. But this isn't the year to say, "We can get one down the road, there is no need to use a no. 1 pick on a WR."

There are some serious outliers at work here.

When you talk about the mid round picks that have made it, consider how many DIDN'T make it. In the list that you gave, as well as the one that Marino gave, these mid round gems pop up about 1 or two per year, once in a while, 3.

Examples:

Diggs was a 5th round pick in 2015. He was the 20th WR taken, the 15th past the first round. There were 35 WR taken that year, 29 after the 1st round. Of that...you have Diggs, taken in the 5th. Tyler Lockett was taken in the 3rd. Other than that, you have guys who contributed at times, like Jamison Crowder. But most...failed.

Tyreek Hill was a 5th round pick in 2016. He was the 18th WR taken and the 14th past the 1st round. There were 31 WRs taken that year, 27 past the 1st round. The vast majority failed.

I seriously doubt the Rams last year said to themselves, "we can wait, Puca will be there in the 5th. I'm sure the CHiefs didn't think that when they drafted Hill, or the Vikings when they drafted Diggs.

Its the same logic that says you can wait until the late rounds because Tom Brady was a 6th round pick or Brock Purdy was a 7th round pick.

Or its the same logic that would say you only take WRs who run a 4.6 because that's what Jerry Rice ran a 4.6 40 years ago.

The 2nd round picks are a little different. Many come from the 2nd. The 2019 draft was the best example, where Deebo, AJ Brown and Metcalf all came from the 2nd. But keep in mind that the Bills draft towards the end of the 2nd. Deebo and AJ Brown were taken towards the top of the 2nd. And as far as DK Metcalf, Im sure there are GM's still kicking themselves for letting him fall that far. Not too many will want to make the same mistake.

The Bills traded away their no.1 WR and their no 2 wr (sort of), is gone. This is no year to take some pass rusher, or safety, with the plan that they can get their No. 1 WR in the later rounds.

Rather, its a year to take the best WR at 28 and then another 1, or 2 in the later rounds.

I have no idea what "podcast" you are refereeing to. I have not heard, nor do I care, nor did my post have anything to do with any Marino podcast. (that I never even heard about until you mentioned it)

I did my own analysis and my post did not express any idea for "We can get one down the road, there is no need to use a no. 1 pick on a WR.".

So, I'm not sure why you even quoted my post. My post that I repeated was from "The Family's Annual Mock Draft - 2024 Version" in which I was responding to the assertion by The Consiglire that...

A true #1WR?

Not where we draft at 28th.

7 WRs will be gone by then.

Jefferson is predicted to go in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.

How is 60th overall a reach?

My point was that "Some of today's very best WR's were not 1st round picks.". And the idea that a "true #1 WR" is not goong to be there at #28 and that "7 WRs will be gone by then.". I simply researched the history and refuted both assertions.

So can I assume that we are in agreement??

The Athletic had another very interesting and informative article today that put into stark terms the risk of any WR selected in the 1st round being more likely a bust or a reach as being a Superstar or a "star" since 2011 draft.

Odds a first-round WR busts? Plus, the top three WR prospects

To sort stars, busts and everything in between, I looked at four criteria:
1. Starts: Was the player good (and healthy) enough to start at least 50 career games?
2. Production: Did he post two 1,000-yard seasons?
3. No. 1 option: Has he seen 150-plus targets in any season?
4. Paid: Did his team pick up his fifth-year option?


Players were sorted into four categories: Superstars hit all four criteria, stars satisfied at least two, a reach hit at least one and busts satisfied none. Anyone with fewer than four seasons saw their numbers projected. You can find other notes on the process here.
The numbers were worse than I expected:




Drafting a first-round WR is hard, and the hit rate here is historically lower than other positions. There’s a 63 percent chance of drafting a bust or a reach. Think of a reach as a serviceable starter who should’ve been drafted three rounds later, like Tavon Austin (No. 8 in 2013, 21 spots ahead of DeAndre Hopkins) or Mike Williams (No. 7 in 2017).


Your first-round WR typically busts. Out of every three WRs drafted, one has been a bust, like Jalen Reagor, infamously drafted by the Eagles in 2020 at pick No. 21 — one spot ahead of Justin Jefferson.


The odds of landing a superstar are low. Less than one of every five WRs drafted in the first-round hit each criteria. The No. 27 pick in 2013, DeAndre Hopkins, checked every box, as has 2018’s No. 24, D.J. Moore.


The good news? Drafting a WR in the top 10 made teams more likely to at least land a star, like Amari Cooper (No. 4 in 2015).
The bad news? The historical hit rate for a top-10 WR is barely over 50 percent (52.9).

It would be smart to assume that drafting WR's after the first round get exponentially more difficult to get a "superstar" or even a "star".

As usual, drafting is VERY HARD. It's not a science.

The two authors' (Jacob Robinson and Dianna Russini) assessment of the elite top 3, Harriosn, Nabers and Odunze seem to increase the "odds" that they will be at least "stars". But, no one actually knows.

This scene from Moneyball nails it perfectly....




"You don't have a crystal ball. You can't look at a kid and predict his future any more than I can. I've sat at those kitchen tables with you and listen to you tell those parents 'when I know, I know, and when it comes to your son, I know'.

But you don't. You don't"

More accurate words have never been spoken.


Beane and McD have got their work cut our for them.

All their work (with the full organization of talent evaluators behind them) of tearing apart every kid, watching hours and hours of film, working them out first hand, talking to a plethora of people from their past they know them and/or have been close to them, hopefully increase the odds of getting it right.


But, in the end...."You don't know"