Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

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  • kgun12
    Registered User
    • Jul 2002
    • 11315

    #61
    Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

    Originally posted by notacon View Post
    Yeah, the numbers do not lie.

    The numbers show unequivocally that the idea that "70% of first round picks are a bust" is total bullcrap. 100%.

    Mentioning "P. Manny vs R. Leaf. J. Allen vs Rosen. Mike Williams, Cordy Gleen busts." shows how insipid the premise is.

    Having to go back to last century and with the "P Manny vs. R. Leaf" and "J. Allen vs Rosen" to disparage years and years of drafting, does not come close to validating that "70% of first round picks are a bust"

    Cordy Glenn is a irrelevant example because he was not even a first found pick. Yes, Mike Williams was...but that happened TWENTY ONE YEARS ago. You literally cherry picked ONE Bills 1st round draftees that was a "bust".

    The NFL has drafted approximately 1,800 first round players in the Super Bowl era. It is beyond STUPID to opine (the dumb fan "writer" you quoted) that 1,260 of those were "busts".

    Jesus, even in the FIFTY SIX YEARS of Bills drafting, which 57 players, I count about (maybe) 12 "busts". Only 21%. And that is with many eras of crapping Bills drafting before the McBeane Era.

    A more accurate and reasonable statement is that most likely "70% of first round picks are a NOT a bust"
    So I’m confused, your entire argument for Edmunds was his numbers, so are you finally admit the numbers lied, or do the numbers not lie? Can’t have it both ways, but some how you’ll find a way!
    Retired Air Traffic Controller
    USAF VETERAN
    DAV

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    • Turf
      Registered User
      • Jul 2002
      • 8376

      #62
      Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

      Definitely move up. I'd rather take a 1a- player over 3 c+ players. That simple for me. I can find c+ players anywhere.
      Lou Saban: You can get it done, you can get it done. And what’s more, you’ve gotta get it done.

      Comment

      • sahlensguy
        Registered User
        • Mar 2015
        • 13466

        #63
        Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

        Definitely move back. 1st round value won't be there at 28. Would need to move up 10 spots for Brian Thomas Jr. We have no 3rd round pick. We don't have enough assets to justify it.

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        • Mad Max
          Fortes Fortuna Adiuvat
          • Mar 2003
          • 6698

          #64
          Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

          Originally posted by sahlensguy View Post
          Definitely move back. 1st round value won't be there at 28. Would need to move up 10 spots for Brian Thomas Jr. We have no 3rd round pick. We don't have enough assets to justify it.
          Those of us on this side of the fence are going to be disappointed a bit. I don’t think he holds his water this time either. He’s going to move up.

          Comment

          • sahlensguy
            Registered User
            • Mar 2015
            • 13466

            #65
            Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

            Originally posted by Mad Max View Post
            Those of us on this side of the fence are going to be disappointed a bit. I don’t think he holds his water this time either. He’s going to move up.
            This is most likely the case.

            Hopefully Beane doesn't make it hurt too much!

            Comment

            • kgun12
              Registered User
              • Jul 2002
              • 11315

              #66
              Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

              Originally posted by Mad Max View Post
              Those of us on this side of the fence are going to be disappointed a bit. I don’t think he holds his water this time either. He’s going to move up.
              Yep, I know it's coming and it's still going to be disappointing!
              Retired Air Traffic Controller
              USAF VETERAN
              DAV

              Comment

              • notacon
                Registered User
                • Aug 2012
                • 32991

                #67
                Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

                Originally posted by kgun12 View Post
                So I’m confused, your entire argument for Edmunds was his numbers, so are you finally admit the numbers lied, or do the numbers not lie? Can’t have it both ways, but some how you’ll find a way!
                That is 100% absolutely FALSE!!!!!!! I mean, either you never really read what my arguments were are you are purposely LYING.

                Which one is it???

                I barely and rarely mentioned Edmunds' "numbers".

                What I DID bring up and cite, with links, over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again was what professional NFL experts, including NFL GM's NFL coaches, NFL scouts, NFL players, and NFL personnel experts and virtually every credible national sports media journalists have said about Edmunds that was 100% OPPOSITE of what so many ignorant Edmunds haters were saying.

                One group (professional NFL experts, including NFL GM's NFL coaches, NFL scouts, NFL players, and NFL personnel experts and virtually every credible national sports media journalists) is and was credible the other small group (insipid Edmunds haters) are full of ****!

                This was typified by 50+ professional NFL experts, including NFL GM's NFL coaches, NFL scouts, NFL players, and NFL personnel experts ranking him in top 10 of NFL LB's in 2020….2021, 2022 AND 2023 with the highest ranking in 2023 of #3.

                I'm not "confused" with your blatant misrepresentation of what my arguments are because so may cannot refute what I ACTUALLY WRITE, so they MAKE **** UP, like you JUST DID!!!!

                This kind of dishonesty is so ****ing insufferable and pathetic!!!


                Back to the subject at hand. You're lamely doing a non-denial denial.

                You cannot refute what I reasonably wrote...."The numbers show unequivocally that the idea that "70% of first round picks are a bust" is total bullcrap. 100%."....and you cannot defend the stupid opinion from a fan "writer" that "70% of first round picks are a bust" so you attack me with lying bullcrap.

                Are you proud of your weasel mendicancy??

                Comment

                • Bill Cody
                  Registered User
                  • Sep 2004
                  • 11885

                  #68
                  Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

                  Originally posted by Turf View Post
                  Definitely move up. I'd rather take a 1a- player over 3 c+ players. That simple for me. I can find c+ players anywhere.
                  The only guy I'd be even willing to consider moving up for is Brian Thomas Jr. But to get him you'd need to move ahead of Pittsburgh at 20. It would cost the Bills 4th, 5th and 6th round picks to do this.

                  Comment

                  • sahlensguy
                    Registered User
                    • Mar 2015
                    • 13466

                    #69
                    Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

                    Originally posted by Bill Cody View Post
                    The only guy I'd be even willing to consider moving up for is Brian Thomas Jr. But to get him you'd need to move ahead of Pittsburgh at 20. It would cost the Bills 4th, 5th and 6th round picks to do this.
                    I don't see a team willing to drop back that much in the 1st round for a swap and a bunch of day 3 picks. It will cost more than that. Plus BTJ may not drop past the Bengals at 18.

                    Comment

                    • Woodman
                      Legendary Zoner
                      • Apr 2014
                      • 65883

                      #70
                      Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

                      Originally posted by sahlensguy View Post
                      I don't see a team willing to drop back that much in the 1st round for a swap and a bunch of day 3 picks. It will cost more than that. Plus BTJ may not drop past the Bengals at 18.
                      Agreed we'd need draft capital from 2025 to pull that one off.

                      “It breaks your heart when someone leaves and you don’t know why.”

                      "It may be raining but there's a rainbow above you"


                      Former President Donald Trump early Thursday touted the results of a new NPR/PBSNewsHour/Marist poll showing him ahead of President Joe Biden by 8 percentage points among independents.

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                      • Bill Cody
                        Registered User
                        • Sep 2004
                        • 11885

                        #71
                        Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

                        I got stuck in my office on Saturday because of an incident involving police nearby. There are a number of "draft simulators" online. I have to admit they are highly addictive. I had some good and some incredible fake drafts lol.

                        Comment

                        • Bill Cody
                          Registered User
                          • Sep 2004
                          • 11885

                          #72
                          Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

                          What I learned playing with this it's good to know your needs but beyond that if you can avoid been married to certain players it really makes a huge difference. The programs will usually present you with 1-4 trade offers per pick. Often the answer is no but sometimes it's yes. When you end up getting the same player you were already hoping to get with a couple pick sweetener it's very fun. A couple of the drafts I did I ended up with 3-5 picks in the bank for next year while still addressing a boatload of current needs. Beane just needs to hold his water lol

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                          • Bill Cody
                            Registered User
                            • Sep 2004
                            • 11885

                            #73
                            Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

                            Originally posted by sahlensguy View Post
                            I don't see a team willing to drop back that much in the 1st round for a swap and a bunch of day 3 picks. It will cost more than that. Plus BTJ may not drop past the Bengals at 18.
                            Yeah quite possibly true. Or not.

                            Comment

                            • sahlensguy
                              Registered User
                              • Mar 2015
                              • 13466

                              #74
                              Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

                              Originally posted by Bill Cody View Post
                              Yeah quite possibly true. Or not.
                              If Beane dropped back 8 or 10 spots to late in 1st round for 4th, a 5th and a 6th, we'd be calling for his head.

                              Comment

                              • Mad Max
                                Fortes Fortuna Adiuvat
                                • Mar 2003
                                • 6698

                                #75
                                Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

                                Originally posted by sahlensguy View Post
                                If Beane dropped back 8 or 10 spots to late in 1st round for 4th, a 5th and a 6th, we'd be calling for his head.
                                Well that scenario would be Whaley like in it’s gross negligence so yes.

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