Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

[notacon]

That trade worked. Tell me how many trades to pick top 10 QBs hasn’t.

And the only time I’d advocate to trade up in the first round is for a QB. What’s your point?

MY POINT is that you don’t know what you’re getting in ANY pick so why trade away assets to pick another player who may or may not pan out?

Scouting department is where the best money should be paid out.

No risk, no reward.

My point is that you would make a crappy GM with closed minded, narrow vision with predetermined mindset that "the only time I’d advocate to trade up in the first round is for a QB.".

Thankfully, you are NOT the Bills GM, and Brandon Beane is.

[jamze132]

No risk, no reward.

My point is that you would make a crappy GM with closed minded, narrow vision with predetermined mindset that "the only time I’d advocate to trade up in the first round is for a QB.".

Thankfully, you are NOT the Bills GM, and Brandon Beane is.

So you’re saying you have to take a risk to get a reward… lol

Sit down.

[kgun12]

Jeez, how'd the risk reward idea work for the Ditka/R. Williams trade or the H. Walker trade work for Minnesota? When you look at the percentage of first round busts, trading a lot of picks to move up is silly!

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4...ains-very-high

NFL Draft Pick Bust Rate Remains Very High
More analytics haven’t increased the success rate

By Warren Ludford@wludford Apr 26, 2022, 8:53pm CDT 48 Comments / 48 New

Five years ago I did a piece detailing how most draft picks are busts, based on a study of 1996-2016 draft picks. The results, which are based on the Pro Football Reference AV metric, are sobering:

16.7% didn’t play for the team that drafted them
37% were considered useless. They either didn’t play much or didn’t make the team.
15.3% were considered poor. Had limited playing time and didn’t do well in the time they had.
10.5% were considered average. These are mediocre players that had starts or significant contributions over 2-3 years.
12.3% were considered good

[Historian]

I think they will move up seven or eight spots in the first round and take the Thomas kid from LSU.

[YardRat]

So 34 trades and we have three players still with the team beyond their first contract (Allen, Knox, Bass), and zero conference championships.

Is that 'good'?

[notacon]

So you’re saying you have to take a risk to get a reward… lol

Sit down.

Jesus.

Your misrepresenting what I write is almost comical. I did NOT say that "you have to take a risk to get a reward". Why do you feel the need to misrepresent what I write??!?!?

What I am saying is that a "closed minded, narrow vision with predetermined mindset" is the trait of a terrible GM that will to have the job of GM for long.

Being a chicken **** coward, and terrible GM is one who has the mindset of "Why trade away multiple picks to move up for a guy that might not pan out?"

[notacon]

So 34 trades and we have three players still with the team beyond their first contract (Allen, Knox, Bass), and zero conference championships.

Is that 'good'?

Hmmmmmm. A team that has the second longest current consecutive playoff appearances (five, KC is #1 with nine) and the second longest consecutive division titles (four, KC is #1 with eight) is "not good"?!?!?

It's a false that "three players still with the team beyond their first contract". What about....

Matt Milano
Dion Dawkins
Siran Neal
Taron Johnson
Ed Oliver
AJ Epenesa

All of those players (except Neal) are backbone starters.

Besides the fact that all the players drafted in 2021, 2022 & 2023 are not "beyond their first contract" because they don't have to be.

Many of those players are either already backbone starters or looking very good that they will be.....

Greg Rousseau
Spencer Brown
James Cook
Terrel Bernard
Kahlil Shakir
Christian Benford
O'Cyrus Torrence
Dalton Kincaid

That's 15 out of 22 starters (not including Bass)

Your observation is rather silly and misleading.

[notacon]

Besides the fact that many of the trades Beane did are also important starters. Not counting the newsts players that sure lok like they will be important starters....Curtis Samuel & Mike Edwards.

McGovern
Von Miller
Rasul Douglas
David Edwards
DaQuan Jones

All in all, it looks like extremely competent and skilled TEAM building that has resulted in one of the bets teams in the NFL, despite them not getting over the playoff hump YET.

[kgun12]

Hmmmmmm. A team that has the second longest current consecutive playoff appearances (five, KC is #1 with nine) and the second longest consecutive division titles (four, KC is #1 with eight) is "not good"?!?!?

It's a false that "three players still with the team beyond their first contract". What about....

Matt Milano
Dion Dawkins
Siran Neal
Taron Johnson
Ed Oliver
AJ Epenesa

All of those players (except Neal) are backbone starters.

Besides the fact that all the players drafted in 2021, 2022 & 2023 are not "beyond their first contract" because they don't have to be.

Many of those players are either already backbone starters or looking very good that they will be.....

Greg Rousseau
Spencer Brown
James Cook
Terrel Bernard
Kahlil Shakir
Christian Benford
O'Cyrus Torrence
Dalton Kincaid

That's 15 out of 22 starters (not including Bass)

Your observation is rather silly and misleading.

How many on these lists did Bean risk more draft picks for the rewards from them. and when almost 70% of first round picks are a bust (post #43), why would teams risk using more draft choice to move up. The better odds is to draft more players in hope of find that one good players. Strength in numbers theory.

[YardRat]

Hmmmmmm. A team that has the second longest current consecutive playoff appearances (five, KC is #1 with nine) and the second longest consecutive division titles (four, KC is #1 with eight) is "not good"?!?!?

It's a false that "three players still with the team beyond their first contract". What about....

Matt Milano
Dion Dawkins
Siran Neal
Taron Johnson
Ed Oliver
AJ Epenesa


All of those players (except Neal) are backbone starters.

None of those players were listed as being involved with the trades referenced, and Neal is gone.

Besides the fact that all the players drafted in 2021, 2022 & 2023 are not "beyond their first contract" because they don't have to be.

Many of those players are either already backbone starters or looking very good that they will be.....

Greg Rousseau
Spencer Brown
James Cook
Terrel Bernard
Kahlil Shakir
Christian Benford
O'Cyrus Torrence
Dalton Kincaid

That's 15 out of 22 starters (not including Bass)

Your observation is rather silly and misleading.

Yeah the jury is still out on the younger guys involved in the trades. We'll see.

And my statement is factually correct.

[Bill Cody]

It's all going to depend on who is there at 28 when we get to pick if we'll be wise to consider trading down. That's why you have a GM that knows what we need and a draft board that assigns hopefully accurate values.

Do I hope someone slips a Xanax into Beane's coffee on draft night? Of course. And give the man a brown paper bag when the draft gets into the 20's. Since we're in a semi rebuild burning picks this year is not ideal. You'd feel better if we still had our third. But ideally you grab Mitchell at 28 and another starter at 60. Then if Beane wants to slide around like a pole dancer have at it.

[kgun12]

It's all going to depend on who is there at 28 when we get to pick if we'll be wise to consider trading down. That's why you have a GM that knows what we need and a draft board that assigns hopefully accurate values.

Do I hope someone slips a Xanax into Beane's coffee on draft night? Of course. And give the man a brown paper bag when the draft gets into the 20's. Since we're in a semi rebuild burning picks this year is not ideal. You'd feel better if we still had our third. But ideally you grab Mitchell at 28 and another starter at 60. Then if Beane wants to slide around like a pole dancer have at it.

Yes! Hopefully someone in the war room has Xanax and a paper bag.

[notacon]

How many on these lists did Bean risk more draft picks for the rewards from them. and when almost 70% of first round picks are a bust (post #43), why would teams risk using more draft choice to move up. The better odds is to draft more players in hope of find that one good players. Strength in numbers theory.

It is false that "70% of first round picks are a bust". Citing information from a fan site is useless. Of course that does depend on how one defines "bust".

Although there is some evidence that "teams risk using more draft choice to move up.", that is not a given. Sometimes that risk pays off, sometimes it does not. My point is to reject doing so out of hand is silly, narrow minded and would show gross incompetence by a GM.

There are "busts" up and down the draft. It is a fact that the bust rate increases with every round. I've researched this in the past....I'm on the raod right now vitiing family so I do not have to time to resurrect my findings.

It's a fact that drafting, in and of itself, is a very, very difficult thing to do.

[notacon]

None of those players were listed as being involved with the trades referenced, and Neal is gone.


Yeah the jury is still out on the younger guys involved in the trades. We'll see.

And my statement is factually correct.

Seriously?!?! You really want to confusingly parse what you wrote??


Me missing Neal actually proves my point even more.


My post is factually correct as well.

[kgun12]

It is false that "70% of first round picks are a bust". Citing information from a fan site is useless. Of course that does depend on how one defines "bust".

Although there is some evidence that "teams risk using more draft choice to move up.", that is not a given. Sometimes that risk pays off, sometimes it does not. My point is to reject doing so out of hand is silly, narrow minded and would show gross incompetence by a GM.

There are "busts" up and down the draft. It is a fact that the bust rate increases with every round. I've researched this in the past....I'm on the raod right now vitiing family so I do not have to time to resurrect my findings.

It's a fact that drafting, in and of itself, is a very, very difficult thing to do.

I would agree if it was his opinion, but the numbers don’t lie, they either performed well or didn’t. It’s pretty easy to tell. A perfect example is P. Manny vs R. Leaf. J. Allen vs Rosen. Mike Williams, Cordy Gleen busts. Torrance Kincaid not busts!

[kgun12]

Not Glenn, Ford.

[Woodman]

I think they will move up seven or eight spots in the first round and take the Thomas kid from LSU.

Would love to land that guy!!

[notacon]

I would agree if it was his opinion, but the numbers don’t lie, they either performed well or didn’t. It’s pretty easy to tell. A perfect example is P. Manny vs R. Leaf. J. Allen vs Rosen. Mike Williams, Cordy Gleen busts. Torrance Kincaid not busts!

Yeah, the numbers do not lie.

The numbers show unequivocally that the idea that "70% of first round picks are a bust" is total bullcrap. 100%.

Mentioning "P. Manny vs R. Leaf. J. Allen vs Rosen. Mike Williams, Cordy Gleen busts." shows how insipid the premise is.

Having to go back to last century and with the "P Manny vs. R. Leaf" and "J. Allen vs Rosen" to disparage years and years of drafting, does not come close to validating that "70% of first round picks are a bust"

Cordy Glenn is a irrelevant example because he was not even a first found pick. Yes, Mike Williams was...but that happened TWENTY ONE YEARS ago. You literally cherry picked ONE Bills 1st round draftees that was a "bust".

The NFL has drafted approximately 1,800 first round players in the Super Bowl era. It is beyond STUPID to opine (the dumb fan "writer" you quoted) that 1,260 of those were "busts".

Jesus, even in the FIFTY SIX YEARS of Bills drafting, which 57 players, I count about (maybe) 12 "busts". Only 21%. And that is with many eras of crapping Bills drafting before the McBeane Era.

A more accurate and reasonable statement is that most likely "70% of first round picks are a NOT a bust"

[notacon]

Not Glenn, Ford.

No difference. Ford was not a first round pick either.

[YardRat]

Not Glenn, Ford.

Glenn Ford played for the Bills?