Page 4 of 5 FirstFirst 12345 LastLast
Results 61 to 80 of 100

Thread: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

  1. #61
    Registered User kgun12's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    Ohio
    Posts
    11,313
    Thanks
    5,839
    Thanked 1,963 Times in 1,227 Posts
    Power to Give Rep
    67

    Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

    Quote Originally Posted by notacon View Post
    Yeah, the numbers do not lie.

    The numbers show unequivocally that the idea that "70% of first round picks are a bust" is total bullcrap. 100%.

    Mentioning "P. Manny vs R. Leaf. J. Allen vs Rosen. Mike Williams, Cordy Gleen busts." shows how insipid the premise is.

    Having to go back to last century and with the "P Manny vs. R. Leaf" and "J. Allen vs Rosen" to disparage years and years of drafting, does not come close to validating that "70% of first round picks are a bust"

    Cordy Glenn is a irrelevant example because he was not even a first found pick. Yes, Mike Williams was...but that happened TWENTY ONE YEARS ago. You literally cherry picked ONE Bills 1st round draftees that was a "bust".

    The NFL has drafted approximately 1,800 first round players in the Super Bowl era. It is beyond STUPID to opine (the dumb fan "writer" you quoted) that 1,260 of those were "busts".

    Jesus, even in the FIFTY SIX YEARS of Bills drafting, which 57 players, I count about (maybe) 12 "busts". Only 21%. And that is with many eras of crapping Bills drafting before the McBeane Era.

    A more accurate and reasonable statement is that most likely "70% of first round picks are a NOT a bust"
    So I’m confused, your entire argument for Edmunds was his numbers, so are you finally admit the numbers lied, or do the numbers not lie? Can’t have it both ways, but some how you’ll find a way!
    Retired Air Traffic Controller
    USAF VETERAN
    DAV

  2. #62
    Registered User Turf's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    Rochester
    Posts
    8,374
    Thanks
    515
    Thanked 2,494 Times in 1,488 Posts
    Power to Give Rep
    40

    Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

    Definitely move up. I'd rather take a 1a- player over 3 c+ players. That simple for me. I can find c+ players anywhere.
    Lou Saban: You can get it done, you can get it done. And whatís more, youíve gotta get it done.

  3. #63
    Registered User sahlensguy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2015
    Posts
    13,465
    Thanks
    4,901
    Thanked 5,428 Times in 3,889 Posts
    Power to Give Rep
    40

    Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

    Definitely move back. 1st round value won't be there at 28. Would need to move up 10 spots for Brian Thomas Jr. We have no 3rd round pick. We don't have enough assets to justify it.

  4. Post thanked by:

    kgun12 (04-21-2024)

  5. #64
    Fortes Fortuna Adiuvat Mad Max's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Location
    Trapped behind enemy lines
    Posts
    6,698
    Thanks
    583
    Thanked 1,508 Times in 1,041 Posts
    Power to Give Rep
    37

    Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

    Quote Originally Posted by sahlensguy View Post
    Definitely move back. 1st round value won't be there at 28. Would need to move up 10 spots for Brian Thomas Jr. We have no 3rd round pick. We don't have enough assets to justify it.
    Those of us on this side of the fence are going to be disappointed a bit. I donít think he holds his water this time either. Heís going to move up.

  6. Post thanked by:

    kgun12 (04-21-2024)

  7. #65
    Registered User sahlensguy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2015
    Posts
    13,465
    Thanks
    4,901
    Thanked 5,428 Times in 3,889 Posts
    Power to Give Rep
    40

    Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

    Quote Originally Posted by Mad Max View Post
    Those of us on this side of the fence are going to be disappointed a bit. I don’t think he holds his water this time either. He’s going to move up.
    This is most likely the case.

    Hopefully Beane doesn't make it hurt too much!

  8. #66
    Registered User kgun12's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    Ohio
    Posts
    11,313
    Thanks
    5,839
    Thanked 1,963 Times in 1,227 Posts
    Power to Give Rep
    67

    Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

    Quote Originally Posted by Mad Max View Post
    Those of us on this side of the fence are going to be disappointed a bit. I don’t think he holds his water this time either. He’s going to move up.
    Yep, I know it's coming and it's still going to be disappointing!

  9. #67
    Registered User notacon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Posts
    32,954
    Thanks
    24,897
    Thanked 11,793 Times in 7,834 Posts
    Power to Give Rep
    88

    Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

    Quote Originally Posted by kgun12 View Post
    So I’m confused, your entire argument for Edmunds was his numbers, so are you finally admit the numbers lied, or do the numbers not lie? Can’t have it both ways, but some how you’ll find a way!
    That is 100% absolutely FALSE!!!!!!! I mean, either you never really read what my arguments were are you are purposely LYING.

    Which one is it???

    I barely and rarely mentioned Edmunds' "numbers".

    What I DID bring up and cite, with links, over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again was what professional NFL experts, including NFL GM's NFL coaches, NFL scouts, NFL players, and NFL personnel experts and virtually every credible national sports media journalists have said about Edmunds that was 100% OPPOSITE of what so many ignorant Edmunds haters were saying.

    One group (professional NFL experts, including NFL GM's NFL coaches, NFL scouts, NFL players, and NFL personnel experts and virtually every credible national sports media journalists) is and was credible the other small group (insipid Edmunds haters) are full of ****!

    This was typified by 50+ professional NFL experts, including NFL GM's NFL coaches, NFL scouts, NFL players, and NFL personnel experts ranking him in top 10 of NFL LB's in 2020….2021, 2022 AND 2023 with the highest ranking in 2023 of #3.

    I'm not "confused" with your blatant misrepresentation of what my arguments are because so may cannot refute what I ACTUALLY WRITE, so they MAKE **** UP, like you JUST DID!!!!

    This kind of dishonesty is so ****ing insufferable and pathetic!!!


    Back to the subject at hand. You're lamely doing a non-denial denial.

    You cannot refute what I reasonably wrote...."The numbers show unequivocally that the idea that "70% of first round picks are a bust" is total bullcrap. 100%."....and you cannot defend the stupid opinion from a fan "writer" that "70% of first round picks are a bust" so you attack me with lying bullcrap.

    Are you proud of your weasel mendicancy??

  10. #68
    Registered User Bill Cody's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    11,874
    Thanks
    1,223
    Thanked 5,990 Times in 3,526 Posts
    Power to Give Rep
    48

    Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

    Quote Originally Posted by Turf View Post
    Definitely move up. I'd rather take a 1a- player over 3 c+ players. That simple for me. I can find c+ players anywhere.
    The only guy I'd be even willing to consider moving up for is Brian Thomas Jr. But to get him you'd need to move ahead of Pittsburgh at 20. It would cost the Bills 4th, 5th and 6th round picks to do this.

  11. #69
    Registered User sahlensguy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2015
    Posts
    13,465
    Thanks
    4,901
    Thanked 5,428 Times in 3,889 Posts
    Power to Give Rep
    40

    Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Cody View Post
    The only guy I'd be even willing to consider moving up for is Brian Thomas Jr. But to get him you'd need to move ahead of Pittsburgh at 20. It would cost the Bills 4th, 5th and 6th round picks to do this.
    I don't see a team willing to drop back that much in the 1st round for a swap and a bunch of day 3 picks. It will cost more than that. Plus BTJ may not drop past the Bengals at 18.

  12. #70
    Legendary Zoner Woodman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2014
    Posts
    65,785
    Thanks
    5,646
    Thanked 7,693 Times in 6,229 Posts
    Power to Give Rep
    183

    Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

    Quote Originally Posted by sahlensguy View Post
    I don't see a team willing to drop back that much in the 1st round for a swap and a bunch of day 3 picks. It will cost more than that. Plus BTJ may not drop past the Bengals at 18.
    Agreed we'd need draft capital from 2025 to pull that one off.

    1) Ari
    2)@ Mia
    3) Jac
    4)@ Bal
    5)@ Hou
    6)@ Jet
    7) Ten
    8)@ Sea


  13. #71
    Registered User Bill Cody's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    11,874
    Thanks
    1,223
    Thanked 5,990 Times in 3,526 Posts
    Power to Give Rep
    48

    Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

    I got stuck in my office on Saturday because of an incident involving police nearby. There are a number of "draft simulators" online. I have to admit they are highly addictive. I had some good and some incredible fake drafts lol.

  14. Post thanked by:

    Historian (04-23-2024),YardRat (04-22-2024)

  15. #72
    Registered User Bill Cody's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    11,874
    Thanks
    1,223
    Thanked 5,990 Times in 3,526 Posts
    Power to Give Rep
    48

    Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

    What I learned playing with this it's good to know your needs but beyond that if you can avoid been married to certain players it really makes a huge difference. The programs will usually present you with 1-4 trade offers per pick. Often the answer is no but sometimes it's yes. When you end up getting the same player you were already hoping to get with a couple pick sweetener it's very fun. A couple of the drafts I did I ended up with 3-5 picks in the bank for next year while still addressing a boatload of current needs. Beane just needs to hold his water lol

  16. #73
    Registered User Bill Cody's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    11,874
    Thanks
    1,223
    Thanked 5,990 Times in 3,526 Posts
    Power to Give Rep
    48

    Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

    Quote Originally Posted by sahlensguy View Post
    I don't see a team willing to drop back that much in the 1st round for a swap and a bunch of day 3 picks. It will cost more than that. Plus BTJ may not drop past the Bengals at 18.
    Yeah quite possibly true. Or not.

  17. #74
    Registered User sahlensguy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2015
    Posts
    13,465
    Thanks
    4,901
    Thanked 5,428 Times in 3,889 Posts
    Power to Give Rep
    40

    Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Cody View Post
    Yeah quite possibly true. Or not.
    If Beane dropped back 8 or 10 spots to late in 1st round for 4th, a 5th and a 6th, we'd be calling for his head.

  18. #75
    Fortes Fortuna Adiuvat Mad Max's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Location
    Trapped behind enemy lines
    Posts
    6,698
    Thanks
    583
    Thanked 1,508 Times in 1,041 Posts
    Power to Give Rep
    37

    Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

    Quote Originally Posted by sahlensguy View Post
    If Beane dropped back 8 or 10 spots to late in 1st round for 4th, a 5th and a 6th, we'd be calling for his head.
    Well that scenario would be Whaley like in it’s gross negligence so yes.

  19. #76
    Registered User Bill Cody's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    11,874
    Thanks
    1,223
    Thanked 5,990 Times in 3,526 Posts
    Power to Give Rep
    48

    Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

    Quote Originally Posted by sahlensguy View Post
    If Beane dropped back 8 or 10 spots to late in 1st round for 4th, a 5th and a 6th, we'd be calling for his head.
    Every team is in a different situation. What's right for one is wrong for another. Maybe a team that's missed out on their primary target has another player in mind that will be available a bit later. If so, not taking the extra picks would be mismanagement.

  20. #77
    Fortes Fortuna Adiuvat Mad Max's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Location
    Trapped behind enemy lines
    Posts
    6,698
    Thanks
    583
    Thanked 1,508 Times in 1,041 Posts
    Power to Give Rep
    37

    Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Cody View Post
    Every team is in a different situation. What's right for one is wrong for another. Maybe a team that's missed out on their primary target has another player in mind that will be available a bit later. If so, not taking the extra picks would be mismanagement.
    Trades are going to happen but your math is off on this one. Way off.

    If Beane goes fishing he’s going to have to bring better bait to get BTJ than what you proposed.

    The value chart would have us giving up all 7 of our rounds 4,5 and 6 picks to barely move up to 20. Higher than twenty and those picks aren’t even enough.

    Would a team take all of those lower picks as opposed to 1 or 2 more premium picks? That in and of itself is debatable. I doubt it.

  21. #78
    Registered User Bill Cody's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    11,874
    Thanks
    1,223
    Thanked 5,990 Times in 3,526 Posts
    Power to Give Rep
    48

    Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

    Quote Originally Posted by Mad Max View Post
    Trades are going to happen but your math is off on this one. Way off.

    If Beane goes fishing he’s going to have to bring better bait to get BTJ than what you proposed.

    The value chart would have us giving up all 7 of our rounds 4,5 and 6 picks to barely move up to 20. Higher than twenty and those picks aren’t even enough.

    Would a team take all of those lower picks as opposed to 1 or 2 more premium picks? That in and of itself is debatable. I doubt it.
    You're right. Had the glasses off on that one.

  22. #79
    Registered User jamze132's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    Virginia
    Posts
    29,254
    Thanks
    7,834
    Thanked 5,923 Times in 3,551 Posts
    Power to Give Rep
    104

    Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

    Quote Originally Posted by Turf View Post
    Definitely move up. I'd rather take a 1a- player over 3 c+ players. That simple for me. I can find c+ players anywhere.
    A lot of teams considered Josh Rosen and Zach Wilson “1a” players. And no team thought enough to draft the GOAT until the 6th round. You just never know who’s going to turn out so take as many players as you can and don’t trade multiple “opportunities” for one you think will be better.

  23. #80
    Fortes Fortuna Adiuvat Mad Max's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Location
    Trapped behind enemy lines
    Posts
    6,698
    Thanks
    583
    Thanked 1,508 Times in 1,041 Posts
    Power to Give Rep
    37

    Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

    Quote Originally Posted by jamze132 View Post
    A lot of teams considered Josh Rosen and Zach Wilson “1a” players. And no team thought enough to draft the GOAT until the 6th round. You just never know who’s going to turn out so take as many players as you can and don’t trade multiple “opportunities” for one you think will be better.
    Agreed but with a qualifier. I’d want to stack the odds in my favor.

    70% of HOFers have come from rounds 1-3 those are the rounds I’d want to accumulate picks in.

    After that it’s greatly diminishing returns.

  24. Post thanked by:

    jamze132 (04-23-2024)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •