Texas receiver Adonai Mitchell would check many boxes for Bills

[Woodman]

Receiver Adonai Mitchell would check many boxes for Bills

The Buffalo Bills need a home-run hitter, a receiver who can stress defenses vertically to free up the intermediate routes for tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox and possesses the kind of speed to run by cornerbacks to catch rainbowlike throws from quarterback Josh Allen.

How about Texas’ Adonai Mitchell with the 28th pick?

The Bills’ decision to trade Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans on April 3 created a massive void in the passing game, as did – to a lesser extent – Gabe Davis signing with Jacksonville in free agency last month. The Bills signed Curtis Samuel, but one receiver and possibly two receivers should be in the offing during the draft (April 25-27).

[Woodman]

Mitchell checks the right boxes.

He runs fast. His 4.34-second 40-yard dash at the scouting combine was third fastest among participating receivers.

He scores touchdowns. In his only season with the Longhorns, he had 11 scoring receptions, first in the Big 12 and tied for 11th nationally.

And he gets down the field. Among his 55 catches, seven gained at least 30 yards.

[Mad Max]

Mitchell checks the right boxes.

He runs fast. His 4.34-second 40-yard dash at the scouting combine was third fastest among participating receivers.

He scores touchdowns. In his only season with the Longhorns, he had 11 scoring receptions, first in the Big 12 and tied for 11th nationally.

And he gets down the field. Among his 55 catches, seven gained at least 30 yards.

You just watched the ESPN piece on him didn’t you?

[Saratoga Slim]

Mitchell makes me nervous. Said at the combine he rarely runs routes at 100% because he likes to pace himself so he’s fresh at the end of the game. If you’re going to be our first round draft pick, I kind of expect you’ll get yourself in good enough shape to run routes all game.

Red warning flags.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

It's why drafting is so difficult because it is a projection of the player's growth.

Just for the Bills, we have guys like Pat Williams who, due to the lazy, take play off reputation in college, went undrafted. He took that humiliation to heart and never skipped workout, took a playoff in NFL for a 14 year career.

Then we have Marcel Dareus who had all the natural ability to play in NFL and toed the line of Nick Saban performed well in college, and yet never had the motivation to improve his game in NFL, even though his natural ability got him to a Pro Bowl. After he got paid, he tanked completely.

In my opinion, a lot of top college players may have topped their ability right there, especially in almost all pro schools like Alabama where what you see is what you'll get the best of them. That includes guys like Lawrence - not a bad player but maybe he's already near his ceiling. Think of guys like Sam Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield. On the other hand, guys like Allen, Brady never got to learn and max their potential in college, and they got to prove it in the pro.

So when we talk about the top 3 WRs in the draft, they are probably good enough already to play in NFL now. But how many of them can go another level up all the way to HoF type of players? If Mitchell go the Pat Williams route, can he be as good as the top 3 or even better? The statistics say someone will in the next tier. Getting the right one is always an educated guess. I don't know the Bills have the right eyes to single out the right one, even among the top 3. Playing odds (drafting multiple) might be the better approach.

[Bill Cody]

I hope we take him

[Mad Max]

It's why drafting is so difficult because it is a projection of the player's growth.

Just for the Bills, we have guys like Pat Williams who, due to the lazy, take play off reputation in college, went undrafted. He took that humiliation to heart and never skipped workout, took a playoff in NFL for a 14 year career.

Then we have Marcel Dareus who had all the natural ability to play in NFL and toed the line of Nick Saban performed well in college, and yet never had the motivation to improve his game in NFL, even though his natural ability got him to a Pro Bowl. After he got paid, he tanked completely.

In my opinion, a lot of top college players may have topped their ability right there, especially in almost all pro schools like Alabama where what you see is what you'll get the best of them. That includes guys like Lawrence - not a bad player but maybe he's already near his ceiling. Think of guys like Sam Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield. On the other hand, guys like Allen, Brady never got to learn and max their potential in college, and they got to prove it in the pro.

So when we talk about the top 3 WRs in the draft, they are probably good enough already to play in NFL now. But how many of them can go another level up all the way to HoF type of players? If Mitchell go the Pat Williams route, can he be as good as the top 3 or even better? The statistics say someone will in the next tier. Getting the right one is always an educated guess. I don't know the Bills have the right eyes to single out the right one, even among the top 3. Playing odds (drafting multiple) might be the better approach.

It’s equal parts science, intuition, and luck. Pretty much need to get all three.
Both the science and intuition line up for this armchair GM for Mitchell, Leggette and Thomas Jr. For the Bills in the first round.

They all three have excellent measureables and they all three sound like hungry, humble, intelligent and coachable humans. Not one sounds like a douchebag. So often the guy that sounds like a douchebag ends up being a douchebag in the league.

The Bills spoke with ten WR at the Combine included were my three preferences. So pick one and hope we get lucky afterwards. Can’t do any more (except draft two).

[Woodman]

Mitchell makes me nervous. Said at the combine he rarely runs routes at 100% because he likes to pace himself so he’s fresh at the end of the game. If you’re going to be our first round draft pick, I kind of expect you’ll get yourself in good enough shape to run routes all game.

Red warning flags.

[Woodman]

Then we have Marcel Dareus who had all the natural ability to play in NFL and toed the line of Nick Saban performed well in college, and yet never had the motivation to improve his game in NFL, even though his natural ability got him to a Pro Bowl. After he got paid, he tanked completely.

I'm still pissed that Denver didn't draft him.

[Ed]

I know he's a popular name in mock drafts for the Bills, but I've heard enough questions/concerns about him that make me want to stay away. At least in the first round.

[Woodman]

You just watched the ESPN piece on him didn’t you?

No.

He's just the one to most likely drop to 28th.

The top 4 we can all forget about unless we move up.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

I'm still pissed that Denver didn't draft him.

Position wise, Edge is the most valuable on defense. It's hard to double with different alignment like wide 9 to maximize top edge's strength where is for a DT, you can bet on 2 big guys blocking you every snap if they want to. Chiefs' Chris Jones is one of those who can play DT and DE. The one play he made against us is at DE position.

Of course there are exceptions. Aaron Donald routinely beats double teams. What can you do about that?

[Mad Max]

Position wise, Edge is the most valuable on defense. It's hard to double with different alignment like wide 9 to maximize top edge's strength where is for a DT, you can bet on 2 big guys blocking you every snap if they want to. Chiefs' Chris Jones is one of those who can play DT and DE. The one play he made against us is at DE position.

Of course there are exceptions. Aaron Donald routinely beats double teams. What can you do about that?

You’re right about Edge…and the exception.

There’s a DT in this years draft that I think has a great chance to be one of those rare exceptions.

Jer’Zhan Newton. If he’s there at 28 (unlikely but you never know) I’d be very conflicted if say Brian Thomas Jr. was also still there.

[Woodman]

Position wise, Edge is the most valuable on defense. It's hard to double with different alignment like wide 9 to maximize top edge's strength where is for a DT, you can bet on 2 big guys blocking you every snap if they want to. Chiefs' Chris Jones is one of those who can play DT and DE. The one play he made against us is at DE position.

Of course there are exceptions. Aaron Donald routinely beats double teams. What can you do about that?

Marcel Dareus why didn't you go to Denver still pissed about that.

[Woodman]

Jer’Zhan Newton. If he’s there at 28 (unlikely but you never know) I’d be very conflicted if say Brian Thomas Jr. was also still there.

Either one would be more than acceptable.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

I'm also curious about Chop Robinson. He has the kind of bend Von Miller has (or had if you think he is done). He actually has the same height/weight as Von came out college. To get the QB under 2 seconds from the edge, the proven type of guy is Von Miller type - forget about Bruce Smith. There is a reason Bruce Smith is at the top of all time great because he had that bend and but also at 40 lb heavier (this considerable stronger) than Von Miller.

But Chop's college production is no where near what you'd expect with his physical traits. He had no more than 5 sacks in any year. In comparison, Von had 17, 10 sack seasons in college. Is Chop just an athlete but not a football player? That's a big question for GMs to answer. He has a higher likelihood at 28. He's a true boom and bust pick: you can get a Maybin, You can get a Miller.

[Mad Max]

I'm also curious about Chop Robinson. He has the kind of bend Von Miller has (or had if you think he is done). He actually has the same height/weight as Von came out college. To get the QB under 2 seconds from the edge, the proven type of guy is Von Miller type - forget about Bruce Smith. There is a reason Bruce Smith is at the top of all time great because he had that bend and but also at 40 lb heavier (this considerable stronger) than Von Miller.

But Chop's college production is no where near what you'd expect with his physical traits. He had no more than 5 sacks in any year. In comparison, Von had 17, 10 sack seasons in college. Is Chop just an athlete but not a football player? That's a big question for GMs to answer. He has a higher likelihood at 28. He's a true boom and bust pick: you can get a Maybin, You can get a Miller.

No no and F no on Chop.

I’ve seen him mocked to us a few times and it’s cringe.

He’s a classic tweener IMO with very little college production as you noted.

Not worth the risk.

[Woodman]

Maybin damn was that a terrible pick.

[Woodman]

No no and F no on Chop.

I’ve seen him mocked to us a few times and it’s cringe.

He’s a classic tweener IMO with very little college production as you noted.

Not worth the risk.

No tweener allowed here.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Well, Beane has tried to get big guys (not twitch speed traits) on the edge. Epenesa, Rousseau, Basham. No hits so far. Basham is a complete flop. If Chop were able to put up 10 sacks at Penn State, you are talking about a top 5 pick like Von Miller was. As long as the Bills have Josh Allen, we can forget about picking those prospects. Pretty much Beane and his scouting Department have to dig deep for projection and take some gambles. There are guys like Chris Jones dropping to second because off field issues and inconsistent on field performance in college.