My Draft review and grade (for posterity)

[Woodman]

Re: My Draft review and grade (for posterity)

Overall Buffalo Bills grade: C+

The Bills played this draft safe and took home 10 players, although only one wide receiver in Keon Coleman. Even though Coleman didn’t have the cleanest end to his season and a slow 40-yard dash time at the scouting combine, he still has shown serious talent in college football. Coleman will start right away for the Bills and will immediately have a chance to prove whether he can separate from NFL cornerbacks. The Bills had another solid pickup in Ray Davis, but other than that this draft class was just fine. Probably not too many movers and shakers, but some quality players at positions of need. It will be interesting to see what happens with Travis Clayton, a developmental offensive line prospect from England.

[sahlensguy]

Re: My Draft review and grade (for posterity)

I don't disagree much, here's a cliif-notes version of mine...


F trading back with KC. Dumbass move that glaringly exhibits why they win and we don't. Beane got screwed on return again, and strengthened their biggest rival at the same time.

A--S Cole Bishop, should start with Rapp.

B--WR Keon Coleman and C Sedrick van Pran-Granger. Both could start...or not be good enough to, out of the gate. Coleman is a classic boom or bust risk, IMO.

C--DT Carter. and Edge Soloman. LB Uliofosho. Carter should be a minor part of the defensive line rotation, Soloman, maybe. Uliofosho might contribute on special teams. Or he could get cut.

D--OT Grable, CB Hardy, OT Clayton. Camp fodder, practice squad if we're lucky.

F--RB Davis. Just another smallish, "slippery" scat back that allegedly can add to the passing game. Beane is never going to learn how to populate a running back room.

Overall, a C. We hit positions of need, but might have gotten better potential talent going with different guys at different times. Doubling down on OT's instead of receivers is a mistake.

Hopefully we can get some better-than-expected contributions from these guys and the overall looks better in hindsight.

I'll give it a B- just because the 1st two picks will make it to their 2nd contracts. Love Coleman but hate how Beane got there considering what he did with the trade compensation, while giving up the 5th year option on Coleman. 3rd and 4th rounds were a disaster. The OL picks were fine. Gran Turismo guy is a joke.

[cas22]

Re: My Draft review and grade (for posterity)

I'm gonna hold my judgment on Coleman until I see him on the field with Allen,, he either is gonna be a steal or a bust, no in-betweens i'm thinking, I love his Size and hands and am hoping he doesn't turn out to be a Kelvin Benjamin clone..


The 2024 NFL Draft receiver class is going to be one for the ages. It may seem like a yearly statement at this point, and that’s true, but it reflects a true explosion of receiving talent entering the NFL rather than simply an acceleration of a hyperbolic draft narrative.
This class, headlined by Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr., features several elite receiver prospects who will be taken in the first round and many more who will make contributions.
One of the most fascinating and polarizing of them is Florida State’s Keon Coleman.


Listed at 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, Coleman has prototypical NFL size and a highlight reel of the most spectacular catches in this draft class. But the consistency has never been there, and there are several red flags in his evaluation that are going to leave draft analysts, and NFL teams, all over the map on him.
The first red flag is that the opening line in his scouting report is likely to mention contested catches. Contested-catch skills are certainly not a bad thing, but it is an inherently volatile skill set and not something that can be relied upon every year. DeAndre Hopkins is one of the best contested catch receivers the NFL has seen over the past decade, and he caught only 22.7% of his contested targets in 2023.
If making contested catches is a part of your skill set, that’s great. If it’s the best thing you bring to the table? We might have a problem.
Coleman himself is evidence of that concern. He made some of the best contested catches you’ll ever see last season, but he caught only 33.3% of those opportunities, down almost half from his previous campaign at Michigan State.
The second red flag is that his production across the board has been middling at best, especially when compared to other top receiver prospects even just in this draft. Coleman recorded 1,467 yards and 19 touchdowns in his college career, most of which came over the past two seasons. LSU’s Malik Nabers had 1,545 yards and 14 touchdowns just this season.
His Florida State statistics are particularly rough relative to the other top prospects, but even including the year before doesn’t get him into the same ballpark. Coleman averaged 1.90 yards per route run for his college career. Nabers averaged 2.80, peaking a full yard higher than that in 2023. Marvin Harrison Jr. averaged 3.03 for his college career and Rome Odunze finished at 2.57 with a 3.09 peak this past season.
There is no real statistical case to be made that Coleman is an elite receiver prospect, and though college production carries a lot of weight, it doesn’t mean he can’t be a top receiver at the next level; it just means that he will be an outlier if he does pan out.
Chasing outliers can get teams into trouble at draft time, so if you are going to construct a case that Coleman’s lack of production should be overlooked, it had better have merit.
Luckily, I think there is a case to be made. Firstly, he is one of the youngest players in the draft. That doesn’t mean he will automatically be a better player going forward, but it’s logical to believe there is more potential development than if he had the same profile and production as a 22-year-old.
When I turned on his tape, I was immediately impressed and surprised by how suddenly he moved for a big receiver whose calling card was spectacular contested catches. He has route-running chops, and he has already shown significant growth in that area from the previous season at Michigan State. Though his stats and production were better for the Spartans, he was a vastly more nuanced player at Florida State. The difference between the two is largely a few more high-leverage plays went his way the year before.
That visible development in his route running and understanding of defenses and space from the year before is an encouraging sign, particularly paired with his age, in projecting his potential at the next level.
It’s also worth noting that Florida State’s offense was not a high-volume passing attack.
Seminoles quarterbacks combined for 3,300 yards on the season, lower than 16 individual passers in the FBS. Jordan Travis’ accuracy didn’t help the situation. He had a particularly high rate of catchable but inaccurate passes last season (26.2%), per PFF's charting, which helps explain the high drop rate of Florida State receivers (those not named Coleman). This was not an offense set up for receivers to look good, and while Coleman isn’t alone among prospects in that regard, it’s certainly something that was working against him.
Ultimately, Coleman is going to be a risky prospect — it’s not a flawless, clean profile — but the positives are obvious from his tape. He has spectacular ability, excellent size and quickness and more nuance in his route running than he is given credit for. His age is another plus factor. If he can run well in the 40, or his tracking data shows he has high-end game speed in place of that, he will do a lot to make a team take a chance that they can get a high-end player out of him.
It’s always an uncomfortable place to start with a player if you have to overlook their inability to produce on a lesser stage, but in Coleman’s case, it might be a valid part of the evaluation.

[Gibby 2.0]

Re: My Draft review and grade (for posterity)

Right now, the grade is incomplete:

That said, I give the thing a B/B-

The worst thing about this draft was not Coleman, it was the trade with Kansas City. Sorry, given the playoff problems with them and how they turned the last pick we gave them into the problem that is Mahomes I really don't like us giving them another chance to harm us. However, if this kid turns into a Roscoe Parrish type guy who is fast but not particularly useful then I can forgive it. In fact, that is why I can't give this draft an A.

However, on paper -key words, on paper - this was a solid draft. We got a big physical receiver, we got a defensive back who could start in September, we got a bruiser at running back which means that we are headed to making Josh more of a qb who uses his legs to extend plays to find a receiver instead of a guy who risks injury on designed runs, we got arguably the best center in the draft, and we got depth on the DL and linebacker. So on paper its a B/B-

Tell ya what, lets revisit this in December. We'll know a hell of a lot more how good or bad this class is.

[DraftBoy]

Re: My Draft review and grade (for posterity)

I don’t think many of you saw Davis play at Kentucky. I would expect him to become a significant part of the rotation by the end of the season.

[Novacane]

Re: My Draft review and grade (for posterity)

I don’t think many of you saw Davis play at Kentucky. I would expect him to become a significant part of the rotation by the end of the season.

I don't think many saw any of these players they are *****ing about play.

[Mace]

Re: My Draft review and grade (for posterity)

I'm going to give it a C across the board atm on initial impression. I thought it was an avg draft and uninspiring. If this was last year, knocked it out of the park. Wr heavy draft we took one...the perfect wr2.

I like Coleman, he's fierce, passionate about playing with Allen, and his media appearance made me love him more. I don't see him as Kelvin Benjamin...I see him as TJ Houshmanzadeh. So...Legette/Coleman....Coleman/Mitchell....or Coleman/Franklin would have excited me. I dunno about Coleman/Shakir//Samuel.

Bishop will not start, nor will center SVPG. Bishop will get sub package snaps...SVPG...will get some small snaps at guard. That's pattern unless McGovern gets hurt or goes woeful. Sub par center will be tolerable enough to not start the rookie.

Davis is no scat back, he,s a bowling ball who loves contact and has soft hands...by the same token... punishing Estime was still there. Everyone else looks crapshoot to me, depth or special teams.

I guess I expected a more urgent draft. I'm not happy with it, but can't project results ..sincerely wish these kids the best...hope for it too..
But Beane's credibility here is now McDermott level dubious to me, imo...and away we go.

[Mad Max]

Re: My Draft review and grade (for posterity)

I'm going to give it a C across the board atm on initial impression. I thought it was an avg draft and uninspiring. If this was last year, knocked it out of the park. Wr heavy draft we took one...the perfect wr2.

I like Coleman, he's fierce, passionate about playing with Allen, and his media appearance made me love him more. I don't see him as Kelvin Benjamin...I see him as TJ Houshmanzadeh. So...Legette/Coleman....Coleman/Mitchell....or Coleman/Franklin would have excited me. I dunno about Coleman/Shakir//Samuel.

Bishop will not start, nor will center SVPG. Bishop will get sub package snaps...SVPG...will get some small snaps at guard. That's pattern unless McGovern gets hurt or goes woeful. Sub par center will be tolerable enough to not start the rookie.

Davis is no scat back, he,s a bowling ball who loves contact and has soft hands...by the same token... punishing Estime was still there. Everyone else looks crapshoot to me, depth or special teams.

I guess I expected a more urgent draft. I'm not happy with it, but can't project results ..sincerely wish these kids the best...hope for it too..
But Beane's credibility here is now McDermott level dubious to me, imo...and away we go.

Yep. I don’t hate the picks overall, as opposed to not liking the fact that it “appears” that we passed up opportunities to acquire more potentially explosive players in lieu of taking safer lower ceiling players.

I would have taken Leggette and Estime/Guerendo over Coleman and Davis for example.

Coleman feels like a potentially better Gave Davis replacement but is that what you’re trying to score with your first pick of the draft?

Davis looks a lot like Motor to me in style. A little heavier I guess but will he really be more effective than Motor? I loved Motor don’t get me wrong, but he wasn’t a game breaker…Guerendo could be.

[YardRat]

Re: My Draft review and grade (for posterity)

I don’t think many of you saw Davis play at Kentucky. I would expect him to become a significant part of the rotation by the end of the season.

Maybe.

History of this regime belies a 'significant rotation' with the backfield, so I don't know why this season will be any different.

And we'll see how much he likes contact when he's getting hit by football players, not insurance salesmen.

[DraftBoy]

Re: My Draft review and grade (for posterity)

Maybe.

History of this regime belies a 'significant rotation' with the backfield, so I don't know why this season will be any different.

And we'll see how much he likes contact when he's getting hit by football players, not insurance salesmen.

It isn’t like he played in the Pac 12, he was getting hit by future NFL’ers every week at Kentucky.

[kscdogbillsfan1221]

Re: My Draft review and grade (for posterity)

Maybe.

History of this regime belies a 'significant rotation' with the backfield, so I don't know why this season will be any different.

And we'll see how much he likes contact when he's getting hit by football players, not insurance salesmen.

SEC is a bunch of insurance salesmen? Really?

[sahlensguy]

Re: My Draft review and grade (for posterity)

SEC is a bunch of insurance salesmen? Really?

Bunch of Jakes...from State Farm.

[kscdogbillsfan1221]

Re: My Draft review and grade (for posterity)

Half the sec can’t spell insurance, much less sell it

[Mad Max]

Re: My Draft review and grade (for posterity)

SEC is a bunch of insurance salesmen? Really?

He’s not wrong. Less than 2 percent make it to the pros from the college ranks. Quadruple that number to weight the SEC and you’re still under 8 Percent. So you’re playing against teams 92 percent full of future insurance salesmen.

[Bill Cody]

Re: My Draft review and grade (for posterity)

If the English Ol guy can't cut it at tackle maybe he could play x receiver. He's over 300 lbs and almost as fast as Coleman