Post Draft Question

[Chet]

I'm "resigned to 'it is what it is', now let's see how it ends up"

This is the only sane way to look at it if you’re sober

[ghz in pittsburgh]

It is actually a bigger change than you may realize. First, they seem to change the philosophy of smaller, faster WRs to bigger sized, more sure handed guys. I’m guessing they saw what happened in playoff losses against top defenses that the receivers are struggling to get open. So they want guys that are open even covered - I believe it is more towards playoff than regular season players. Second, continued the trend of make running attack a real threat. O-line is now more geared towards stronger run blockers and the RBs are all of the type who can run and catch. That along with Knox and Kincaid in 12 personnel, the offense can be more unpredictable instead of the early Josh years where running attack is ineffective and pretty much an afterthought. 3rd and most surprising, they are picking guys like edge Solomon where the profile says 3-4 DE and not the Bills typical prototype. I guess what they drafted on their own in the past did not work as well in the playoffs so they are looking outside of the comfort zone to see if they are going to hit on something that will work better

[Gibby 2.0]

well I will be including recent free agent signings too. At this juncture, minus my day one freak out about the trade with the Chiefs, the draft took care of needs. Nothing flashy, but it addressed needs. Big receiver in the draft, Claypool is another big physical guy, they got some solid slant route receivers in Free agency, they beefed up and brought in depth on the lines, they added a powe back for the running committee, they beefed up the secondary. So on paper they have gotten younger and arguably healthier. Right now its too early to tell (ask me again in late January how I feel about this team) but right now its a great start.

[kgun12]

I don’t have the in-depth knowledge about all the draft eligible players like the experts in the war rooms. And even all the experts make mistakes. Just go back to Allen and Rosen, most of the experts from the league and the Zone were horrified when the Bills took Allen and that worked out pretty well for Bean and company! Then there is Elam so you never know nobody does it’s a crap shoot!! Until the pads go on and games count nobody knows!
So, I have to say I’m happy, we filled holes, added depth, sign a lot of free agents (without any money, lol!) and will have some good camp battles for roster spots! So here’s to hoping their draft picks were Allen type picks and not an Elam type picks!

[Historian]

Maybe they fired the video guy because he wanted to title this year's hype film "Same S hit, Different Day".

"First Round Bound!"

[DetoxTent]

I don’t have the in-depth knowledge about all the draft eligible players like the experts in the war rooms. And even all the experts make mistakes. Just go back to Allen and Rosen, most of the experts from the league and the Zone were horrified when the Bills took Allen and that worked out pretty well for Bean and company! Then there is Elam so you never know nobody does it’s a crap shoot!! Until the pads go on and games count nobody knows!
So, I have to say I’m happy, we filled holes, added depth, sign a lot of free agents (without any money, lol!) and will have some good camp battles for roster spots! So here’s to hoping their draft picks were Allen type picks and not an Elam type picks!

That is not exactly true.

[notacon]

I don’t have the in-depth knowledge about all the draft eligible players like the experts in the war rooms. And even all the experts make mistakes. Just go back to Allen and Rosen, most of the experts from the league and the Zone were horrified when the Bills took Allen and that worked out pretty well for Bean and company! Then there is Elam so you never know nobody does it’s a crap shoot!! Until the pads go on and games count nobody knows!
So, I have to say I’m happy, we filled holes, added depth, sign a lot of free agents (without any money, lol!) and will have some good camp battles for roster spots! So here’s to hoping their draft picks were Allen type picks and not an Elam type picks!

Very well stated kgun.

I posted some insight on the extreme effort NFL talent evaluators go through (in response to one of the Zone's resident sour pusses, who likened my approval of the Bills first three draft picks by comparing it to "selling timeshares" ).......


The Athletic published a very interesting (Part 1) "behind the scene" look at what a NFL team (in this instance the LA Rams) of "One year...of the NFL Draft scouting process"...detailing what a staff of about TWENTY FIVE professionals go though in evaluation talent in their full time jobs.

I'm curious, how many of the few things they mentioned (in part 1) that you (directed at the sour puss know-it-all) have personally done???

-received, hours after the 2023 draft ended, a long list of prospects are distributed to the scouts...that began the...
-"....months spent by scouts on research, evaluation, discussions and debates" about these prospects.
-a multitude of school visits
-multitude of internal meetings of these evaluators sharing their findings
-months and months on the road scouting hundreds of prospects first hand
-each scout has an "area" of the country "who build profiles and evaluations of the players over multiple years...at games, practices and pro days"
-about 200 prospects are "cross checked" where other scouts supplement each other scouts work
-building years long relationships with college coaches
-countless hours in film rooms


How many colleges have you (again, directed at the sour puss know-it-all) visited....college players have you personally met....been at their work outs....talked to their coaches....talked to their strength coaches....talked to their teammates...talked to their acquaintances....talked to their families...conduct background checks....????

And on and on and on.

Even with around TWENTY FIVE professionals doing extensive evaluation for (sometimes) years, yeah...."even all the experts make mistakes". That's the nature of NFL football, and the fraught projection what a young man (just KIDS) will react to the huge culture change from high schools and college ball to the NFL.

This reality was captured perfectly in Moneyball with this iconic scene....




“You don’t have a crystal ball. You can’t look at a kid and predict his future any more than I can. I’ve sat at those kitchen tables with you and listen to you tell those parents “when I know, I know. And when it comes to your son, I know.”

But, you don’t. You don’t”


Your (kgun's) observation is SPOT ON!!!!

"..we filled holes, added depth, sign a lot of free agents (without any money, lol!) and will have some good camp battles for roster spots! So here’s to hoping their draft picks were Allen type picks and not an Elam type picks!"

With the exception is we really do not really know if the Elam pick was as bad as it seems today.

[kgun12]

That is not exactly true.

So your saying most of the league and zoners did have Rosen ahead of Allen?

[kgun12]

So you’re saying most of the league and zoners didn’t have Rosen ahead of Allen?

I fix it.

[cas22]

I love the position's we drafted, WR. Center. Safety, LB DT, RB, CB, OT and a DE....

we have added all needs for sure , the biggest question is are they good enough, unfortunately no one will no till game 17 of the 2024 season is over,,,, we can hype this player or drill another but its all speculation.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Kay interviewed Eric Wood at Kentucky Derby this past weekend on what needs to happen for the Bills to "over the hump" (going to the superbowl). We know Wood is well plugged into the team and he's a formal player who is, like Morse, very cerebral. His answer? 1) health (He actually thought had the Bills been healthy last year, they very well would be in the superbowl instead of the Chiefs). 2) young players stepping up in Safety, CB, and WR positions in that order.

I think 1) above might be a better shot this year since we do get younger. 2) is difficult for improvement in all 3 areas, especially at Safety - I don't know we can realistically expect the height of Hyde/Poyer replicated this year with any combination of the players we have. I mean the Hyde/Poyer of 2017 - 2021.

BTW, Wood thinks the Bills offense goes thru Kincaid this year, something similar to the Chiefs after they traded away Hill. It is a tall order but possible, not one of the low odds in my mind. In that case, the non-explosive but steady offense we saw from Brady late last season continues, with maybe better weapons for better finishes in the redzone. It will not be the pretty offense like Miami or what the Chiefs can do if guys like Worthy pans out. It is the playoff offense.

[Woodman]

BTW, Wood thinks the Bills offense goes thru Kincaid this year, something similar to the Chiefs after they traded away Hill. It is a tall order but possible, not one of the low odds in my mind. In that case, the non-explosive but steady offense we saw from Brady late last season continues, with maybe better weapons for better finishes in the redzone. It will not be the pretty offense like Miami or what the Chiefs can do if guys like Worthy pans out. It is the playoff offense.

Kincaid may set the table ...... if that's what you call going through ..... I'd say that it's a pretty accurate take.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Kincaid may set the table ...... if that's what you call going through ..... I'd say that it's a pretty accurate take.

Wood's exact words is "Kincaid is the main target ... then there are some role players at wide receivers.... And they have those role players."

To me, when Wood says a WR needs to step up, I'm thinking Shakir. There is something about him (and the connection with Allen towards the end last year as a de facto 1st read)) that all of us want to see this year because I think you are going to see teams put #1 Corner on him this year. We know how it ends with Davis when that happened (at some critical junctures of a game). We'll see how it goes with him.

[Woodman]

Wood's exact words is "Kincaid is the main target ... then there are some role players at wide receivers.... And they have those role players."

To me, when Wood says a WR needs to step up, I'm thinking Shakir. There is something about him (and the connection with Allen towards the end last year as a de facto 1st read)) that all of us want to see this year because I think you are going to see teams put #1 Corner on him this year. We know how it ends with Davis when that happened (at some critical junctures of a game). We'll see how it goes with him.

Whichever way it goes I'm looking for a great season!

Always Go Bills!

[Mad Max]

Wood's exact words is "Kincaid is the main target ... then there are some role players at wide receivers.... And they have those role players."

To me, when Wood says a WR needs to step up, I'm thinking Shakir. There is something about him (and the connection with Allen towards the end last year as a de facto 1st read)) that all of us want to see this year because I think you are going to see teams put #1 Corner on him this year. We know how it ends with Davis when that happened (at some critical junctures of a game). We'll see how it goes with him.

We are lucky to have a couple of “dogs” in Kincaid and Shakir. They get open, fight for the ball, make hard catches and then they YAC it up.

We’re going to need others to step up obviously, but those two make an excellent pass catching foundation.

[sahlensguy]

We are lucky to have a couple of “dogs” in Kincaid and Shakir. They get open, fight for the ball, make hard catches and then they YAC it up.

We’re going to need others to step up obviously, but those two make an excellent pass catching foundation.

Johnny Wilson - wins on the outside. Could have been a dynamic trio.

Why, Beane...

[Mad Max]

Johnny Wilson - wins on the outside. Could have been a dynamic trio.

Why, Beane...

We’ll see…someone else in the thread mentioned that Jordan Travis (the FSU QB) cheated towards Johnny Wilson over Keon…the better talent.

Also in general Jordan Travis wasn’t exactly a premier college QB making the best throws or decisions.

Switching to Josh throwing to Keon is going to ratchet up his game automatically.

check out this thread to see some of Jordan Travis’ work:

https://www.reddit.com/r/buffalobills/s/5qhIjh2ioM

[sahlensguy]

We’ll see…someone else in the thread mentioned that Jordan Travis (the FSU QB) cheated towards Johnny Wilson over Keon…the better talent.

Also in general Jordan Travis wasn’t exactly a premier college QB making the best throws or decisions.

Switching to Josh throwing to Keon is going to ratchet up his game automatically.

check out this thread to see some of Jordan Travis’ work:

https://www.reddit.com/r/buffalobills/s/5qhIjh2ioM

Travis was a travesty. Plus he had a tight end target to throw to. Only one ball to go around. Hopefully Josh makes all the difference for Keon.

[notacon]

Kay interviewed Eric Wood at Kentucky Derby this past weekend on what needs to happen for the Bills to "over the hump" (going to the superbowl). We know Wood is well plugged into the team and he's a formal player who is, like Morse, very cerebral. His answer? 1) health (He actually thought had the Bills been healthy last year, they very well would be in the superbowl instead of the Chiefs). 2) young players stepping up in Safety, CB, and WR positions in that order.

I think 1) above might be a better shot this year since we do get younger. 2) is difficult for improvement in all 3 areas, especially at Safety - I don't know we can realistically expect the height of Hyde/Poyer replicated this year with any combination of the players we have. I mean the Hyde/Poyer of 2017 - 2021.

BTW, Wood thinks the Bills offense goes thru Kincaid this year, something similar to the Chiefs after they traded away Hill. It is a tall order but possible, not one of the low odds in my mind. In that case, the non-explosive but steady offense we saw from Brady late last season continues, with maybe better weapons for better finishes in the redzone. It will not be the pretty offense like Miami or what the Chiefs can do if guys like Worthy pans out. It is the playoff offense.

Eric Wood is a smart man. Injuries were HUGE for the Bills that past several years. In 2023, Erci is spot on when he said (as you paraphrased) "health (He actually thought had the Bills been healthy last year, they very well would be in the superbowl instead of the Chiefs).".

I posted two months ago about the injury factor with these facts...

In 2023 the Bills had the fourth-most games lost by starters to injury on defense in the NFL with 46.

While KC with the second-FEWEST games lost at only 27.

Despite all those devastating injuries, the Bills STILL won the AFCE for the FOURTH consecutive time, and the playoffs the FIFTH consecutive time....the second longest streak in the NFL of consecutive playoff appearance (KC, of course is #1 with 9) and grabbed the #2 seed in the AFC.

THAT SHOWS the Bills had as good a roster as any team in the NFL.

KC's good fortune with so few injuries to starters last year is on top of the Chiefs having had an amazing run of good health in recent years. They lost the fewest games in the NFL to injury in 2022, the third fewest in 2021 and the 10th fewest in 2020. They were tied for 13th in both 2019 and 2018.


Could that be because the Chiefs have a grass field as do two other teams in the division...while the Bills play on turf as well as two other teams in their division? Sure looks like it could be a HUGE factor.

Here are the facts....including playoff games, the breakdown of field surface played on for each team....

KC:

2023 - 16 grass - 5 turf
2022 - 16 grass - 4 turf
2021 - 17 grass - 3 turf
2020 - 16 grass - 3 turf
2019 - 17 grass - 2 turf
2018 - 16 grass - 2 turf

Buffalo:

2023 - 4 grass - 15 turf
2022 - 4 grass - 16 turf
2021 - 5 grass - 14 turf
2020 - 7 grass - 12 turf
2019 - 4 grass - 13 turf
2018 - 3 grass - 13 turf


Total the past six seasons:

KC - 98 grass - 19 turf.....83% of games played on grass

Buffalo - 27 grass - 83 turf....75% games played on turf.


The FACTS are undeniable.


It's not a coincidence that KC generally, has been a very healthy team AND they play the overwhelming majority of their games on grass fields.

The new stadium will undoubtedly help the Bills reduce injuries. And it's not just when an injury occurs. The constant punishment from playing on turf takes it's toll in a long season.