2024 Schedule release predictions?

[notacon]

Re: 2024 Schedule release predictions?

I hear this phrase "Let Josh be Josh" in the media, and here from a few including nottie. What does it mean? What dose Josh do that's different from everyone else?

Tom Brady - always making the right decision. Peyton Manning - on field offensive coordinator. Roethlisberger - making plays even when defenders hanging onto him. Aaron Rogers - probably the most accurate QB in the pocket or on the run. Mahomes = coming thru at the right time.

What can you say about Allen? At this point most people will say his legs are as dangerous as his right arm. But I feel we, as well as the front office, are still expecting Allen to evolve. This year, with Joe Brady likely emphasizing a no dominating #1 receiver approach, with an entirely different types of weapons from what he used to have, we may ask him to be a "new Josh" from his previous version.

"Let Josh be Josh" is not putting constraints on his style, like McD has done from time to time. Not frowning on his refusal to go down....not saying publicly that he should not play so recklessly.

Josh Allen is a rare bird. Not sure if the NFL has ever seen a QB like him from the physical ability (toughness AND speed) who plays the game with little kid gusto.

Too many times, McD tires to suppress Josh's instincts.

Although I may not agree with everything that Tyler Dunne has said (he is extremely critical of McD) his three part series concluded with this Part III. The headline surmises the idea quite clearly...


The McDermott Problem, Part III: Let Josh be Josh
“He wants to run through your face and establish the fact that he’s the biggest alpha male dog quarterback in the history of pro football." Buffalo needs to do what's right for its QB. Time's ticking.


Here is the start of the long article (hence the name of his site “Go Long”) that embodies the idea…

There are two distinct versions of Josh Allen this 2023 season. One is fun. One takes off on the run — “The crowd loves it!” Al Michaels professes — and holds the football over the goal line while staring down a Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback. All at full speed.

This version gets a Cincinnati Bengals safety to leave his feet with a pump fake, points, laughs and runs in for a TD. Flag ‘n fine, be damned. Meanwhile, Sean McDermott, spits on the turf and purses his lips. Fifteen yards lost on a kickoff likely means more to the Buffalo Bills head coach than any momentum gained by his backyard quarterback rediscovering himself.

This version, at rain-slopped Philadelphia, rams through Reed Blankenship at the goal line, chucks the ball against the backstop and — flanked by teammates — swaggers right into the teeth of those trash-talking Eagles fans as if welcoming a dark-alley fight. The TD launched a tour de force for the quarterback: 420 total yards, four touchdowns.

“No. 17 is just a different bird,” said one friend and former pro teammate. “He’s wired different. He’s not like most of these quarterbacks. He wants to make dick jokes and run into people.”

If Buffalonians could create the quarterback they’ve always desired in a lab, it’s exactly this.

But then, there’s the other Allen. The pale, stupefied, knockoff version who trudges to the sideline after an interception vs. Denver with McDermott screaming in his ear.

Unlike his boss, Allen does not come remotely close to assigning blame. Doesn’t embarrass receivers on national TV. Doesn’t snipe into earholes on the sidelines. Doesn’t kindly remind the public what McDermott said back in March when, in truth, it’s fully within his rights to alert your attention to these trainwreck comments. When, in reality, this is everything a former Bills assistant coach meant when he said this team is forced to “overcome the head coach.” Everything a former teammate meant by McDermott serving as a drop of “poison.”

A smart coach does everything in his power to accentuate the first version of Allen.

Realize you’ve been gifted a Marvel character at the most important position in sports and let him fly.

Then, there’s McDermott sitting down with NFL Network last March. He made it abundantly clear that Allen needed to siphon these sorts of plays out of his game.

“I don’t think that that’s a healthy way to play quarterback in this league,” said McDermott, in a video posted by the team. “It’s really undefeated that things are going to happen when you play that style, that brand of football. So, we’ve got to get that adjusted. It’s never going to go completely away but it has to get to where it’s workable. I don’t want to take his personality away from him as far as that goes. His signature. But there needs to be an adjustment in that style of play.”

Manually warping the “style” of your most valuable commodity should’ve slotted in as the 2,789th item on the Bills’ offseason agenda. But this was no surprise.

This is a head coach with a low Quarterback IQ.

A LOT more…

[notacon]

Re: 2024 Schedule release predictions?

BTW...there have been signs that McD is starting to "get it".

In a weird way, the failure for the Bills to score on their last drive vs KC was "letting Josh be Josh". I believe that JOSH made the decision to forgo to an easy lay-up for a probable critical first down and instead, went for the kill by passing to Shakir.


Josh made the questionable decision that time, as Kurt Warner has told us, but he is more than likely to make more great decisions than not. It's the way he plays the game when he's at his best.

The Bills moving on from Diggs (and redoing the WR almost completely)and consulting with Josh on drafting Keon Coleman are signs that the team has been handed over to Josh 100%....and it's sure looking like the Bills will "Let Josh be Josh".

I hope so because THAT is the key to glory.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Re: 2024 Schedule release predictions?

Well, I read Tyler Dunne before and certainly enjoyed some of his work with Whaley/Monos to get some inside stories that we are not privy to before. BUT I always get the sense that he's more of a shock jockey and try to draw attention to himself with catchy story lines - like Pegula wanted Mahomes in 2017 but Whaley/Monos didn't believe that type of run and gun QB would ever work in NFL and implied somehow it is McDermott's fault for not pushing to draft Mahomes because he had power in that 2017 draft. I don't hate him because I believe you need some of these guys (like Jerry Sullivan) in the media to keep those with power in check. That's how the system works, like the political system here.

In this case, I completely disagree with him on McDermott's handling of Josh Allen -
“No. 17 is just a different bird,” said one friend and former pro teammate. “He’s wired different. He’s not like most of these quarterbacks. He wants to make dick jokes and run into people.”
That is exactly McDermott showing his care for his players. McDermott has seen player Cam Newton and others before him example upon example again that Allen cannot sustain the kind of running he had in order for a long term career. Unlike Newton and many others before him, Allen had elite mind above his shoulders to go with his arm to do better then over-relying on his legs. He needs to be reined in and guided into a more sustainable direction for the Bills and his career. Even the great Tom Brady had been routinely humiliated by Belichick in front of the whole team to propel him to newer heights. We may take some hits in terms of wins and losses at times while during the transition of Josh.

[notacon]

Re: 2024 Schedule release predictions?

Well, I read Tyler Dunne before and certainly enjoyed some of his work with Whaley/Monos to get some inside stories that we are not privy to before. BUT I always get the sense that he's more of a shock jockey and try to draw attention to himself with catchy story lines - like Pegula wanted Mahomes in 2017 but Whaley/Monos didn't believe that type of run and gun QB would ever work in NFL and implied somehow it is McDermott's fault for not pushing to draft Mahomes because he had power in that 2017 draft. I don't hate him because I believe you need some of these guys (like Jerry Sullivan) in the media to keep those with power in check. That's how the system works, like the political system here.

In this case, I completely disagree with him on McDermott's handling of Josh Allen -
“No. 17 is just a different bird,” said one friend and former pro teammate. “He’s wired different. He’s not like most of these quarterbacks. He wants to make dick jokes and run into people.”
That is exactly McDermott showing his care for his players. McDermott has seen player Cam Newton and others before him example upon example again that Allen cannot sustain the kind of running he had in order for a long term career. Unlike Newton and many others before him, Allen had elite mind above his shoulders to go with his arm to do better then over-relying on his legs. He needs to be reined in and guided into a more sustainable direction for the Bills and his career. Even the great Tom Brady had been routinely humiliated by Belichick in front of the whole team to propel him to newer heights. We may take some hits in terms of wins and losses at times while during the transition of Josh.

I'm more of a McD supporter than most here.

I have already said many times that the posters calling for his head (one particularly confused and bitter sour puss, actually said after only week 5 last season "I’m rooting for them to lose from here on out, only a coaching change and roster turnover can fix this.") have no idea what they are talking about, as firing McD after five consecutive seasons with 10+ wins and playoffs berths, four consecutive AFCE titles the stupidest thing in the world is to fire him.

That does not mean he does not deserve some reasonable criticism.

You asked what does using the phrase "Let Josh be Josh" mean, and the best explanation comes from this Tyler Dunne article and it has a lot of credibility.

With that said you are misrepresenting what Dunne wrote about the decision to not draft Mahomes when you write..."Pegula wanted Mahomes in 2017 but Whaley/Monos didn't believe that type of run and gun QB would ever work in NFL and implied somehow it is McDermott's fault for not pushing to draft Mahomes because he had power in that 2017 draft.".

That is NOT what Dunne wrote, and what Whaley/Monos said or thought in the least. The story was written in November 2020...."Part I: The Pressure in on Josh Allen"

Basically, it is true that Pegula wanted Mahomes in the worst way. Whaley/Monos did NOT think "believe that type of run and gun QB would ever work in NFL" although they was slightly concerned with his style of play.

Here is an excerpt of pre-draft meetings with Mahomes that disproves your assertion of what Dunne wrote...

Mahomes was an alpha in every sense. He picked the steakhouse. He commanded the table.

He was fearless in every sense of the word.

“You wanted to stay with him all night,” Monos says. “It was awesome. … Mahomes was a guy who, ‘Let’s go get some wings and beer. Let’s go.’”

The next day — through driving 20 MPH winds— his workout was nothing short of phenomenal. With Pegula, Whaley, Monos, McDermott, then-OC Rick Dennison and then-QB coach David Culley all on site, Mahomes wasn’t stressed, nor nervous. He made every throw look easy. He carried himself with, as Monos puts, “If you want me, take me”-swag.

Adds Whaley, “The moment was not going to be too big for him. It was what he was born to be. The way he handled himself through the process, through the interviews, through the workout, it was like ‘Alright!’ This guy was a professional from Day 1. It didn’t faze him. It was ‘What do you want to do? OK. Let’s do it. You want me to do it better? You want me to do it this way? Whatever you want.’ You knew he had everything you wanted to be special.”

One week later, the Bills met with Deshaun Watson. Which went well. They liked him, too.

But Mahomes was the target. Part of Monos worried the Brett Favre-like gambling would break a lot of hearts, while Whaley worried about the Air Raid lineage and Mahomes going 5-7 his last season. McDermott? He made it clear he wanted to compete in Year 1 and his assistants flat-out did not want the quarterback. All in all, nobody in the entire building was standing on the table for Mahomes. Nobody that is, other than Pegula.

Nobody had “Top 10 conviction” on Mahomes, adds Monos, “other than Terry.”

So, the Bills charted a new battle plan. Their calculated gamble was that their reservations would be the entire league’s reservations and Mahomes would slip. No QB had come out of this scheme and torn up the pros. He put up video-game numbers, sure, but this was also the Big 12. Whaley figured doubts could precipitate a drop and when Monos thinks back to everyone he knows in the NFL scouting community today, he is adamant: There was not love for Mahomes. Like, at all. Right up to draft day, he insists Mahomes was not considered a “can’t-miss guy” so Buffalo straddled its initial plan at Tempo with a prudent pursuit of Mahomes by trading down from No. 10 to No. 27.

The parameters of a trade with the Chiefs were set before the draft.

The dream scenario? Get Mahomes at 27 and have two firsts in 2018.

Of course, there was one wild card: Andy Reid. The Bills figured the Chiefs coach was after a QB if he was willing to give up so much… but who? Did Reid like Watson because he reminded him of his days with Donovan McNabb in the 2000s or Mahomes because he reminded him of his days with Brett Favre in the 90s? It was a mystery. Tension built. And on the day of the draft, April 27, 2017, Pegula gave Whaley and Monos and McDermott one final chance to change their minds. In the offensive staff room — upstairs, across from Whaley’s office — all three still agreed that trading down was best.

Even then, however, both Whaley and Monos were sure to remind Pegula who’s boss.

“I said, ‘Hey, Terry,’” says Whaley, “‘this is your team. If you want the guy, you take him. It’s not going to be a bad pick. You’re the owner.’ I looked him in the eye in front of coach and in front of Jim and in front of Kim — ‘This is your team. If you really want the guy, get him.’ We’ll be able to get him at 10 for sure. Now, I do believe we can drop down and get an extra pick and be able to get him at 27 but, worst-case scenario, I have two first-round picks to be able to take our choice of quarterbacks next year.

“Talent-wise, he’s definitely worthy of it. I think we all recognized the talent. Let’s put it this way: If Rex was our head coach, we would’ve most definitely had Mahomes. I’m pretty sure. There wouldn’t have been the excuse of, ‘We need that impact player to help us right now.’ It would’ve been a different discussion.”

Adds Monos, “I just wanted to say, ‘Hey, look, you don’t need our opinion if you want him.’ But Terry, I respect that about him. I really do. I really, really respect him. He just hired Sean. He gave him control. For him to overstep Sean right away would’ve been a tough thing for Terry to do.”

Neither remember McDermott saying anything in this specific moment.

He didn’t need to. By then, the hierarchy was clear.

By then, McDermott had control of the roster. McDermott had final say. And McDermott had repeated all along he wanted to be able to look his players in the eye his first team meeting and say they were competing to win this season. Not rebuilding. Not developing a 22-year-old. So, the Bills executed the trade. If Mahomes fell to 27, to McDermott, that’d be a smoother sell and, Monos adds, the Bills would’ve had to take Mahomes at 27 because of Pegula. (“I think he would’ve been there, too,” he adds. “I really do. I’m telling you, nobody had Mahomes up there.”)

Except, it turns out, the Chiefs. With that 10th pick, the Chiefs drafted Mahomes and, in the war room, Pegula said aloud that Reid “got his Favre.”

Seventeen picks later, Buffalo took White.

Big picture, a major disconnect in vision was clear. All along, Whaley and Monos were fully prepared to lose. Both felt that way back to March when the Bills re-signed Tyrod Taylor — to them, it was time to move on. From Taylor. From so many vets. Meanwhile, McDermott wanted Taylor entrenched as the starter to establish a winning culture. To him, a total reset would signal to his team that they’re “packing it in,” Whaley recalls.

He couldn’t envision presenting that decision to a team he’d be trying to motivate to win now.

Adds Whaley, “To have that guy as our first draft pick — especially at 10 — he thought that wouldn’t send the right message. He said, ‘We have enough talent on this team that we can compete right away if we use that first-rounder on someone that can contribute this year. You hear that and it’s, ‘OK, legitimate, legitimate point, a legitimate thought process.’ And then you get fired and see ‘Trade this person, trade that person.’ It’s like ‘What?’”

Indeed, one day later, the entire personnel staff was whacked. McDermott seized full control the way his mentor, Reid, once did in Philadelphia. Ten days later, McDermott brought in his own general manager (Brandon Beane) and the Bills ejected players one by one: Sammy Watkins, Ronald Darby, Marcell Dareus, Reggie Ragland. Hell, McDermott even benched Taylor when his team was 5-4, thus justifying what Monos and Whaley tried to tell him back in March and, to his credit, still ended the team’s playoff drought. Whaley and Monos claim they wanted this partnership to work, wanted to “sync up” with the coaches and learn what kind of players they desired but — as Whaley put — other plans were “obviously in the works” pre-draft.

And Monos, the one who got McDermott his job interview to begin with, doesn’t fault the Pegulas. He learned the hard way that if a team doesn’t give one boss full authority, things get messy.

The head coach and GM need to be tied together. It’s imperative.


A LOT more...

Drafting QB's is fraught territory. NO ONE knows if a 1st round QB is going to fulfill the expectations....from HOFer, to very good, to serviceable starter to total bust. As we already know from history, about 50% of first round QB's are either busts or huge disappointments.

McD wanted to instill, from day one, a change of culture and WINNING attitude. He felt (100% correctly and he WAS vindicated) that "McDermott had repeated all along he wanted to be able to look his players in the eye his first team meeting and say they were competing to win this season. Not rebuilding. Not developing a 22-year-old. "

The Bills and McD did EXACTLY THAT. Ending the SEVENTEEN YEAR playoff drought.

Pegula, as smart leaders do, wanted to ensure that his FOOTBALL people were EMPOWERED to do what they thought best to revive a battered franchise. That's why Pegula hired him.

McD, Beane and the new football regime were immediately SUCCESSFUL.

THAT is why I admire Terry Pegula as a stellar owner.

In any event, it's rather lame to try and disparage a professional sports journalist, tying to discredit his credibility, by misrepresenting what he wrote four years ago.

If you want to disagree on his opinion based on the MERITS, that's one thing. I disagree with many of Dunne's opinions, but I respect his expertise gleaned from close insider access and his incredible work ethic in talking to many, many knowledge sources that have first hand information.

I see Dunne as a very credible sports journalist.

[Woodman]

Re: 2024 Schedule release predictions?

Pithy how about it guys.

[kgun12]

Re: 2024 Schedule release predictions?

I like the Bills chances to sweep Miami, I saw on the NFL Network that they lost 8 players on defense that logged 40% or more of the defensive snaps to make room for Tua’s signing. Not to mention a new defensive coordinator and an entire new defense that the Bills should be able to exploit in the first meeting and the second game is home!

[notacon]

Re: 2024 Schedule release predictions?

I like the Bills chances to sweep Miami, I saw on the NFL Network that they lost 8 players on defense that logged 40% or more of the defensive snaps to make room for Tua’s signing. Not to mention a new defensive coordinator and an entire new defense that the Bills should be able to exploit in the first meeting and the second game is home!

+1

The Bills have OWNED Miami more ince Josh became QB than any other team in the NFL and it's not even close.

13 games....11-2 record (including playoff, in bold below). The first time in Josh's career that he played against (and lost) to Miami was the eighth game of his rookie year.

Since then it's been almost TOTAL domination. The ONLY game lost after that was the "Sauna Bowl" by only two points.

Not only does Josh (and the Bills) have Miami's number, the have mostly CRUSHED them.

Outscoring them in 13 games 429 - 259. That's a total margin of 170 points.

Year	Bills	Miami	Margin
2023	48	20	28
	21	14	7
2022	34	31	3
	32	29	3
	19	21	-2
2021	26	11	15
	35	0	35
2020	56	26	30
	31	28	3
2019	37	20	17
	31	21	10
2018	42	17	25
	17	21	-4
	429	259	170

There is no reason to believe that the domination will wane. Sure, anything can happen in the NFL, but some teams just have some team's number.