First of all, Buffalo needs to run the table... we lose one game, we may not be mathematically out, but we're out.
Chances of happening: approx. 55% - Pittsburgh is the big question mark. Thankfully that game is at home. I think we're all a little too scared of Cincinatti. We have the defense to stop them, and I don't know if they'll be able to stop us enough. They did play NE tough, but they're now all but eliminated from the playoff race.
and.... on top of that, 3 out of the following 4 need to happen:
(in order of liklihood, as I see it)
1. Jacksonville needs to lose once... In their final three games, Houston will come to Jax and they have to go to Green Bay and Oakland.
I highly doubt their chances of going into Lambeau and winning.
Chances of coming to be: approx. 85% probability
2. The Ravens need to lose twice. Thay have Miami at home... very winnable games for them... though Miami almost pulled it out over Denver. They have to go to both Indianapolis and Pittsburgh, which will both be very difficult road games to win.
Chances of coming to be: approx. 80% probability
3. Denver needs to lose twice. This one's a bit tougher. They play at home against the Colts in their last game... their most likely loss, but other than that, their schedule isn't too bad. They play at Kansas City and Tennessee. Kansas City is probably the most likely spoiler for them. Tennessee not far behind. They showed weakness against Miami, however. Next weeks game in Kansas city will be very important to pay attention to.
Chances of coming to be: approx. 40% probability
4. The Jets need to lose to New England and at least one other team. That would put them at 10-6, tied with the Bills, if they win out. The Bills own the tiebreaker by record against common opponents. The loss to NE is very possible, if not probable. The other two games, though, are Seattle and St. Louis. On the other hand, both those teams are in a dogfight for their division title, so they'll be playing hard.
Chances of coming to be: approx. 20% probability
Three out of the four need to happen... not all of them. I'm beginning to have more faith in the Jets suffering a fall. Our chances didn't improve this week, but they also didn't really get worse. The tough games for our four WC competitors are all in the next few weeks... this week wasn't one of them... they all had easy games.
Next week, we're rooting for Kansas City playing at home against Denver, the Seahawks visiting the Jets, and the most likely one, and also probably the most important, considering everyone's remaining schedules... Indy must beat Baltimore. It really will hurt of Baltimore beats the Colts... much more than the other two. And almost as important, the Packers need to do their job in Lambeau and beat up on the Jags, which will put them behind us in the race.
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by jdenning
