With the recent movement of Justin Fields, Mac Jones and Kenny Pickett...all 1st round picks from just the past few years, the reality of just how rare and difficult it is to draft an above average starter much less an elite QB is glaringly evident.
For fun I went though every QB drafted in the 1st round since 2014, and rated their status as of today.
Excluding 2023 picks, that's 29 QB's drafted in the first round.
My count is...
4 - Elite Superstars
5 - above average starters
3 - below average starters
1 - uneven - possible average starter
4 - probable Bust - not with drafting team
6 - Bust - average backup
6 - Bust - undeniably so
Only 13.7% of the 29 are "elite superstars"
31% are either elite or above average starter
55% are a bona-fide Bust, probable Bust or Bust and average backup.
Only ONE of the "elite superstar" or "above average starters" has actually won a Super Bowl.
Sometimes it pays to look at the situation from 10,000 feet. We are all disappointed that the Bills have not even gotten to a Super Bowl in 30 years, but, man, we are better off than the overwhelming majority of the NFL teams who are scrambling in the dark, searching desperately for what we already have.
For fun I went though every QB drafted in the 1st round since 2014, and rated their status as of today.
Year | Pick | Player | Team | Staus |
2023 | 1 | Bryce Young | Carolina | Uneven first year |
2 | C.J. Stroud | Houston | Budding star 1st year | |
4 | Anthony Richardson | Indy | Incomplete Injured | |
2022 | 1 | Kenny Picket | Pittsburgh | Probable bust - not with drafting team |
2021 | 1 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | Above averge starter |
2 | Zach Wilson | NYJ | Bust | |
3 | Trey Lance | San Fran | Probable bust - not with drafting team | |
11 | Justin Fields | Chicago | Probable bust - not with drafting team | |
15 | Mac Jones | NE | Probable bust - not with drafting team | |
2020 | 1 |
Joe Burrow | Cincy | Elite Superstar |
5 | Tua Tagovailoa | Miami | Above averge starter | |
6 | Justin Herbert | LAC | Above averge starter | |
26 | Jordan Love | Green Bay | Above averge starter | |
2019 | 1 | Kyler Murray | Arizona | Below average starter |
6 | Daniel Jones | NYG | Below average starter | |
15 | Dwayne Haskins | Washinton | Bust | |
2018 | 1 | Baker Mayfield | Cleveland | Uneven - possible average starter |
3 | Sam Darnold | NYJ | Bust - average backup | |
7 |
Josh Allen | Buffalo | Elite Superstar | |
10 | Josh Rosen | Arizona | Bust | |
32 |
Lamar Jackson | Baltimore | Elite Superstar | |
2017 | 2 | Mitchell Trubisky | Chicago | Bust - average backup |
10 |
Patrick Mahomes | KC | Elite Superstar | |
12 | Deshaun Watson | Houston | Below average starter | |
2016 | 1 | Jared Goff | LAR | Above average starter |
2 | Carson Wentz | Philly | Bust - average backup | |
26 | Paxton Lynch | Denver | Bust | |
2015 | 1 | Jamies Winston | Tampa Bay | Bust - average backup |
2 | Marcus Mariota | Tennessee | Bust - average backup | |
2014 | 3 | Blake Bortles | LAX | Bust |
22 | Johnny Manziel | Cleveland | Bust | |
32 | Teddy Bridegwater | Minnesota | Bust - average backup |
Excluding 2023 picks, that's 29 QB's drafted in the first round.
My count is...
4 - Elite Superstars
5 - above average starters
3 - below average starters
1 - uneven - possible average starter
4 - probable Bust - not with drafting team
6 - Bust - average backup
6 - Bust - undeniably so
Only 13.7% of the 29 are "elite superstars"
31% are either elite or above average starter
55% are a bona-fide Bust, probable Bust or Bust and average backup.
Only ONE of the "elite superstar" or "above average starters" has actually won a Super Bowl.
Sometimes it pays to look at the situation from 10,000 feet. We are all disappointed that the Bills have not even gotten to a Super Bowl in 30 years, but, man, we are better off than the overwhelming majority of the NFL teams who are scrambling in the dark, searching desperately for what we already have.
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