Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

[jamze132]

Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

There are plenty of opportunities to "move up" that does not involve the 1st round.

I think it's a 60/40 chance Beane moves up from #28, most likely a few spots to get the WR they have pegged IF they believe that another team will get him.

There will be other opportunities to move up in round #2 from #60 and back into round #3.

The thought that Beane should stay put at #28, without any knowledge of what that even means is rather short sighted.

What it means to stay at 28 is that you get to draft more guys than you would if you’re trading picks to move up. I’m especially against trades involving first round picks, which is what we’re really talking about here…not day three trades.

Draft picks are so unpredictable. First round picks have busted and seventh round picks have been superstars. See Sammy Watkins in 2014 - huge waste of resources.

Hindsight is always 20/20…Brady would have gone #1 overall…not in the 6th.

Draft as many guys as possible as you never know where you’ll find the next superstar.

[Woodman]

Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

What it means to stay at 28 is that you get to draft more guys than you would if you’re trading picks to move up. I’m especially against trades involving first round picks, which is what we’re really talking about here…not day three trades.

It depends how needy the team your trading up with happens to be.

The Jags for example have just 4 picks .... so there's some value for them in moving down a few spots to get a windfall of later round picks.

It's always a fun event.

[jamze132]

Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

It depends how needy the team your trading up with happens to be.

The Jags for example have just 4 picks .... so there's some value for them in moving down a few spots to get a windfall of later round picks.

It's always a fun event.

We have a plethora though. Why trade away multiple picks to move up for a guy that might not pan out?

[notacon]

Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

What it means to stay at 28 is that you get to draft more guys than you would if you’re trading picks to move up. I’m especially against trades involving first round picks, which is what we’re really talking about here…not day three trades.

Draft picks are so unpredictable. First round picks have busted and seventh round picks have been superstars. See Sammy Watkins in 2014 - huge waste of resources.

Hindsight is always 20/20…Brady would have gone #1 overall…not in the 6th.

Draft as many guys as possible as you never know where you’ll find the next superstar.

I know all that.

Of course "Draft picks are so unpredictable". Of course "First round picks have busted and seventh round picks have been superstars.". So what???

Sammy Watkins is a perfect example of the crap GM and drafting the Bills made before McBeane came along. I went over that right here.

The point is that trading up (or down) in and of itself are not good or bad. It's what the details of the trade results in.


Of course the most consequential first round trade up in recent Bills history is why the Bills are now perennial contenders...Josh Allen....which after wheeling and dealing earlier to get #12 overall, packaged more draft picks to move up to #7.

The trade up for Edmunds (despite the chatter here and only here, professional NFL experts placed Edmunds in the top 10 of LB's in (reflecting performance the previous season) 2020, 2021, 2022 & 2023) resulted in getting one of the best LB's in the NFL who became (as I predicted) one of the highest aid LB's in the NFL.

Other recent first round trade ups (Beane has never traded down in the first round) have one being incomplete, Elam, and the other sure looking like a home run, Kincaid.

Of course one of the other most consequential trade involving draft picks (although not a trade-up) was the much needed Diggs trade, that helped Allen elevate his game into elite status.

It's silly to discount later round trades because some of those by Beane have been very positively consequential....

In 2019 he traded two 4th round picks to get Dawson Knox in the 3rd round.

2022 traded a 5th round pick (#168) and a 6th (#203) for a 5th (#148) to select Khalil Shakir.

I repeat "The thought that Beane should stay put at #28, without any knowledge of what that even means is rather short sighted."

Drafting "more guys" is not a desirable goal. Drafting the RIGHT players that will advance the team's schemes and make them better is what matters.

If Beane goes into the draft with the predetermined mindset that "What it means to stay at 28 is that you get to draft more guys than you would if you’re trading picks to move up." he should be FIRED IMMEDIATELY!!!

I trust Beane to do what's best for the TEAM. If trading up to get the player they cherish is what they want to do, then so be it.

[notacon]

Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

We have a plethora though. Why trade away multiple picks to move up for a guy that might not pan out?

Like Josh Allen????

[notacon]

Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

BTW....The Buffalo News (one year ago) published all the trades Beane conducted involving draft picks.


Bills GM Brandon Beane has made 34 trades involving draft picks.

Here is the rundown of his deals:

July 26, 2017: Traded quarterback Cardale Jones to the then-San Diego Chargers in exchange for a 2018 conditional seventh-round pick (later traded to Carolina).

Aug. 11, 2017: Acquired CB E.J. Gaines and a 2018 second-round pick (later traded to Tampa Bay) from the Los Angeles Rams for WR Sammy Watkins and a 2018 sixth-round pick.

Aug. 11, 2017: Traded CB Ronald Darby to Philadelphia for WR Jordan Matthews and a third-round pick from Philadelphia (No. 96, used to select DT Harrison Phillips).

Aug. 28, 2017: Traded LB Reggie Ragland to Kansas City for a 2019 fourth-round pick (No. 131, flipped to Washington).

Sept. 2, 2017: Traded CB Kevon Seymour to Carolina for WR Kealin Clay and a 2019 seventh-round pick (No. 228, used to select TE Tommy Sweeney).

Oct. 17, 2017: Traded DT Marcell Dareus to Jacksonville for a conditional sixth-round draft pick that became a fifth-round pick (No. 166, used to select OL Wyatt Teller).

Oct. 31, 2017: Traded a third-round pick that belonged to the Bills and seventh-round pick that originally belonged to the Chargers to Carolina for WR Kelvin Benjamin.

March 14, 2018: Traded QB Tyrod Taylor to the Cleveland Browns in exchange for 2018 third-round draft choice (later traded to Baltimore and then Oakland).

March 14, 2018: Traded T Cordy Glenn to Cincinnati, a 2018 first-round pick (later traded to Tampa Bay) and a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 187, used to select Ray-Ray McCloud) in exchange for a 2018 first-round pick and a 2018 fifth-round pick.

April 24, 2018: Traded a 2018 first-round pick (No. 12, obtained from the Bengals), and two second-round picks (No. 53; and No. 56, obtained from the Rams) to Tampa Bay for a first-round pick (No. 7, used to select QB Josh Allen) and a seventh-round pick (No. 255, used to select WR Austin Proehl).

April 24, 2018: Traded a first-round pick (No. 22, obtained from Chiefs) and a third-round pick (No. 65, obtained from Browns) to Ravens for a first-round pick (No. 16, used to select LB Tremaine Edmunds) and a fifth-round pick (No. 154, used to select DB Siran Neal).

Aug. 5, 2018: Traded a 2020 seventh-round draft pick to the Cleveland Browns for WR Corey Coleman.

Sept. 1, 2018: Traded QB AJ McCarron to the Oakland Raiders for a 2019 fifth-round draft pick that Oakland acquired from the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Sept. 25, 2018: Traded T Marshall Newhouse to the Carolina Panthers for a 2021 conditional seventh-round draft pick No. 236, used to select OL Jack Anderson).

April 26, 2019: Traded a second-round pick (No. 40) and a fifth-round pick (No. 158) to the Oakland Raiders for a second-round pick (No. 38, used to select OL Cody Ford).

April 26, 2019: Traded two fourth-round picks (Nos. 112 and 131) to Washington for a third-round pick (No. 96, used to select TE Dawson Knox).

Aug. 29, 2019: Traded OL Wyatt Teller and a seventh-round pick to Cleveland for a fifth-round pick (used later in the Stefon Diggs trade) and a sixth-round pick (No. 188, used to select K Tyler Bass).

Aug. 30, 2019: Traded OL Russell Bodine to New England for a sixth-round pick (No. 207, used to select WR Isaiah Hodgins).

Oct. 8, 2019: Traded WR Zay Jones to Oakland for a 2021 fifth-round pick (No. 161, used to select OT Tommy Doyle).

March 20, 2020: Traded a first-round pick, fifth-round pick, sixth-round pick and a 2021 fourth-round pick to Minnesota for WR Stefon Diggs and a seventh-round pick (No. 239, used to select DB Dane Jackson).

March 16, 2021: Traded TE Lee Smith to Atlanta for a seventh-round pick (No.

231, used to select LB Baylon Spector).

May 1, 2021: Traded a fifth-round pick to Houston for two sixth-round picks (No. 203, used to select WR Marquez Stevenson and No. 213, used to select S Damar Hamilin).


Aug. 30, 2021: Traded DE Darryl Johnson to Carolina for a sixth-round pick (No. 185, used to select DB Christian Benford).

March 19, 2022: Traded a seventh-round pick to Cleveland for QB Case Keenum.

April 26, 2022: Traded a first-round pick (No. 25) and a fourth-round pick (No. 130) to Baltimore for a first-round pick (No. 23, used to select CB Kaiir Elam).

April 27, 2022: Traded a second-round pick (No. 57) to Tampa Bay for a second-round pick (No. 60 overall, flipped to Cincinnati) and a 2022 sixth-round pick (No. 180, used to select P Matt Araiza).

April 27, 2022: Traded a second-round pick (No. 60) to Cincinnati for a second-round pick (No. 63, used to select RB James Cook) and a 2022 sixth-round pick (No. 209, used to select OT Luke Tenuta).

Aug. 22, 2022: Traded G Cody Ford to Arizona for a 2023 fifth-round pick (No. 137, later flipped to Washington).

Nov. 1, 2022: Traded RB Zach Moss and a fifth-round pick (No. 162) to Indianapolis for RB Nyheim Hines.

Nov. 1, 2022: Traded a seventh-round pick (No. 245) to Atlanta for S Dean Marlowe.

April 27, 2023: Traded a first-round pick (No. 27) and a fourth-round pick (No. 130) to Jacksonville for a first-round pick (No. 25, used to select TE Dalton Kincaid).

April 29, 2023: Traded a fifth-round pick (No. 137) to Washington for a fifth-round pick (No. 150, used to select WR Justin Shorter) and a sixth-round pick (No. 215, flipped to Los Angeles Rams).

April 29, 2023: Traded a sixth-round pick (No. 205) to Houston for a seventh-round pick (No. 230, used to select OL Nick Broeker) and a 2024 sixth-round pick.

April 29, 2023: Traded a sixth-round pick (No. 215) to Los Angeles Rams for a seventh-round pick (No. 252, used to select DB Alex Austin) and a 2024 sixth-round pick.


April 28, 2022: Traded a fifth-round pick (No. 168) and a sixth-round pick (No. 203) to Chicago for a fifth-round pick (No. 148, used to select WR Khalil Shakir).

[jamze132]

Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

Like Josh Allen????

That trade worked. Tell me how many trades to pick top 10 QBs hasn’t.

And the only time I’d advocate to trade up in the first round is for a QB. What’s your point?

MY POINT is that you don’t know what you’re getting in ANY pick so why trade away assets to pick another player who may or may not pan out?

Scouting department is where the best money should be paid out.

[Woodman]

Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

We have a plethora though.

images-5.jpg

Guapo if you want the player you just take the player.

[Woodman]

Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

Building a case for the Buffalo Bills to stand pat in the 2024 NFL Draft - Buffalo Rumblings

The Case for Standing Pat

Making no trades isn’t in Brandon Beane’s nature, but in some ways, it might not be a terrible strategy this year. Patience is a virtue, and if the Bills are patient, there is a world where they’ll still add 10 quality football players to their roster this year. Yes, 10 seems like a lot of rookies to expect to make the roster, but given Buffalo’s salary cap situation for the 2024 season, it isn’t the worst plan to assume that there will be multiple low-cost, high-upside athletes who can fill in the back end of the roster.

[Woodman]

Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

This also doesn’t mean that the Bills won’t be able to find immediate starters at the spots where they currently pick in the draft. The Bills can still search for high-impact players at No. 28 and No. 60, and given their needs elsewhere, they can fill in the rest of those spots early on Day 3 of the draft.
If the Bills trade up in the draft, they’ll secure a coveted player, but they’ll also limit the number of rookies they can add to the roster. If the Bills trade down, they can add quantity to the roster, but it’s likely that they’ll do so at the expense of quality players. This is the “happy medium” scenario, the one where Buffalo can still address their biggest needs while also keeping draft capital for the future.

[notacon]

Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

That trade worked. Tell me how many trades to pick top 10 QBs hasn’t.

And the only time I’d advocate to trade up in the first round is for a QB. What’s your point?

MY POINT is that you don’t know what you’re getting in ANY pick so why trade away assets to pick another player who may or may not pan out?

Scouting department is where the best money should be paid out.

No risk, no reward.

My point is that you would make a crappy GM with closed minded, narrow vision with predetermined mindset that "the only time I’d advocate to trade up in the first round is for a QB.".

Thankfully, you are NOT the Bills GM, and Brandon Beane is.

[jamze132]

Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

No risk, no reward.

My point is that you would make a crappy GM with closed minded, narrow vision with predetermined mindset that "the only time I’d advocate to trade up in the first round is for a QB.".

Thankfully, you are NOT the Bills GM, and Brandon Beane is.

So you’re saying you have to take a risk to get a reward… lol

Sit down.

[kgun12]

Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

Jeez, how'd the risk reward idea work for the Ditka/R. Williams trade or the H. Walker trade work for Minnesota? When you look at the percentage of first round busts, trading a lot of picks to move up is silly!

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high

NFL Draft Pick Bust Rate Remains Very High
More analytics haven’t increased the success rate

By Warren Ludford@wludford Apr 26, 2022, 8:53pm CDT 48 Comments / 48 New

Five years ago I did a piece detailing how most draft picks are busts, based on a study of 1996-2016 draft picks. The results, which are based on the Pro Football Reference AV metric, are sobering:

16.7% didn’t play for the team that drafted them
37% were considered useless. They either didn’t play much or didn’t make the team.
15.3% were considered poor. Had limited playing time and didn’t do well in the time they had.
10.5% were considered average. These are mediocre players that had starts or significant contributions over 2-3 years.
12.3% were considered good

[Historian]

Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

I think they will move up seven or eight spots in the first round and take the Thomas kid from LSU.

[YardRat]

Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

So 34 trades and we have three players still with the team beyond their first contract (Allen, Knox, Bass), and zero conference championships.

Is that 'good'?