| October 22, 2002 | « Previous Story | HOME | Next Story » | Posted at 07:19 PM |
It all started well. The Patriots, coming off their improbable Super Bowl win, ran roughshod over their first three opponents, utilizing the spread offense and getting timely turnovers on defense, propelling the Pats to a 3-0 record. Having won 12 games in a row, most figured the Patriots would be a playoff lock and perhaps even represent the AFC in the next Super Bowl.
The Patriots then lost to three of the best teams in football in the 6-1 Chargers, 5-2 Dolphins and 6-1 Packers. Now, with more than half the season still to play, the Super Bowl champs are fighting for their playoff lives this Sunday at home, against a 5-2 Denver team, before they go on the road, for three straight games.
Should the Pats lose Sunday, their season could well be over. Let's face it, with the new four division format, there are only two wildcard teams this year and they both figure to come from the West, where Oakland, Denver and SanDiego all have better records than the Pats. So, what's going to happen Sunday?
If the NFL has proven anything in these last three years, with free agency and the salary cap it's this; The difference between winning and losing each Sunday is often the outcome of three or four plays, out of the 130 normally played in a given game. (AP Photo)
Three years ago it was the Rams, coming off a 4-12 season, revamping their offense and tearing through the NFL and winning the Super Bowl. Two years ago, it was a Baltimore Raven team, fresh off an abysmal season, with a recharged defense who took the title. Last year it was the Pats, who when the season started were rated as having the "least" talent of any NFL team, according to a poll conducted by Pro Football Weekly of the leagues GM's and coaches.
So, who's going to win it this year? Certainly not the Patriots, if they don't beat Denver Sunday. Here's what I expect we'll see, when the teams kick-off at 4:15pm, in Foxboro;
The Patriots were fortunate to have a bye last week, at a time when they needed it most. Coach Belichick utilized this time to "start over" and re-evaluate his own team, go back to the fundamentals and focus on the individual, position by position battles that his team has been losing these past three weeks.
Certainly no team can win if they commit a dozen penalties and turn the ball over at an alarming rate, like the Patriots have been. For starters, look for the Pats to go back to their conservative, short passing attack, with Troy Brown and sensational rookie, Deon Branch. Brady has gotten into trouble recently, trying to fire pin-point passes, in zone coverage, above the linebackers and beneath the safties. The short passing attack will minimize this risk and hopefully prevent would be turnovers.
Look too, for Antowain Smith to get more involved in the running game. The bruising 230 pounder has yet to get untracked this season and the hope here, is that the bye week allowed the Patriots to look more carefully at their offensive line, perhaps changing both personnel and blocking assignments which might re-energize their anemic rushing attack.
I expect the tight ends to get more involved too. An obvious weakness last year, the Patriots went out and signed two free agents (Christian Fauria and Cam Cleeland) and drafted highly touted rookie Daniel Graham but have yet to get them actively involved in the game plan each week. The tight end is the perfect checkdown read, if Brady's first two options are covered.
On defense, the Patriots have recently faced four of the best running backs in the league (Priest Holmes, LaDanian Tomlinson, Ricky Williams and Ahman Green) and allowed each back to rush for over 100 yards. Denver is 21-0 in their last 21 games when they have a RB gain 100 or more yards. Look no further than stopping Clinton Portis, Denver's prized rookie RB to figure out if the Pats win this game or not.
Additionally, the first six games of the season have also revealed a glaring weakness on the Patriots defense, namely, their front seven. Other than Richard Seymour (who gets double teamed consistently) and perhaps Roman Pheifer, the remainder of the defensive line and linebacking corps have been noticably absent.
The Patriots are getting zero production from the likes of Tedy Bruschi, Ted Johnson, Steve Martin, Anthony Pleasant, Rick Lyle, Bobby Hamilton etc. It's clear that in next year's draft, Belichick and VP of player personnel Scott Pioli wil be looking long and hard at front seven talent as they try to replensih what has suddenly become an old and slow group of veterans.
I expect the Patriots to utilize more 3-4 defensive looks this week than they have in the past, as they try to confuse Brian Griese and force him to call more audibles, (hopefully) resulting in a turnover, or two. Finally, as is often the case, the NFL is a game of emotion. The Patriots perverbial backs are against the wall, they need this game. They are at home and have had an extra week to prepare. The Pats know their season could be finished if they don't come out super charged, with adrenaline surging and desperation on their minds.
The Broncos simply don't need this game as badly as the Patriots do. As such, I'll go with the home team, in a near Patriots rout; 27-10. Patriots columnist Craige Natale
Well, we played a piss poor offensive (in more ways than one) game on Sunday. We still maintain the top position in the division, but going into Green Bay after the bye week for a MNF game against Brett Farve does not bode well. I will detail my thoughts on the MNF game in next weeks article. For now though, let me congratulate the Bills and say this...See you in December.
Quite a few things are going on in Dolphin land that are very interesting. One of these is the decision by Oronde Gadsden to have season ending wrist surgery. Oronde made this decision based on not getting a contract extension he felt was worthy of his production. I like OG and want him to remain a Dolphin, but he is not a 1000 yd 10+ TD reciever. Anything more than 1.2 million is too much for him. He is not a focal point of our offense. What he is is a possesion, chain moving WR. His greatest assets are his hands and his leaping ability in the endzone on fade routes, but he is not utilized in the red zone that much. This is why we have signed Chris Carter to a 1 year deal. I feel that he is an upgrade to the #2 WR position. He has better speed and a nose for the endzone. The problem with Carter will be at the end of the year. Do we re-sign him? Will he still want to play? If so, for how long? (Reuters Photo)
The Bills play at home against the Lions. This one has rout written all over it. But wait. The Lions offense has started to gel under rookie QB Joey Harrington and the defensive line is starting to get to the QB a little more. This one could turn into a fight similar to the Texans game. But I feel that Buffalo will be able to make the rookie force bad throws and will turn the ball over. Field position should favor Buffalo throughout this game. As long as Bledsoe is able to avoid the rush, the O should be able to put up enough points to win. Bottom line...
Bills 38 Detroit 20
Until next week... Phins054
Winning never felt so good. This was an important game for us to win. We needed to get back on track and we feel like we did that this week. It was the most complete team effort we’ve had this year and we hope that has helped us build some confidence in our team.
(Reuters Photo)
I think it’s too early to start talking about “What If”. I think we have to take this win for what it is, one win. It was a good win, an important win, and I’m happy for our players and coaches. They have worked really hard the last three weeks to get this thing turned around, and hopefully this will be the catalyst for us to do that. But it is too early to start looking at the rest of the road and worrying about what could happen if we do this or do that. What we have to do is worry about the New York Jets and take one game at a time. That’s how you climb back into this thing. As we have seen this year, anything can happen. There are upsets every week..... …MORE…
Terry Bradway
General Manager
New York Jets