BillsZone’s Gameday Preview: Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions

by Mark Weiler

Where: Ralph Wilson Stadium in Orchard Park, NY
When: 1 p.m. EDT, Sunday, October 27th
Matchup Data:

STAT	EDGE	BILLS	LIONS	EDGE	STAT
Record		4-3	2-4	X	Record
Yardage O		3	28	X	vs. Yardage D
Scoring O		4	31	X	vs. Scoring D
Rushing O	X	21	16		vs. Rushing D
Passing O		2	29	X	vs. Passing D
Yardage D		23	29	X	vs. Yardage O
Scoring D	X	29	15		vs. Scoring O
Rushing D		25	26	X	vs. Rushing O
Passing D		16	23	X	vs. Passing O
Leading Passer		Bledsoe	Harrington	X	X
Leading Rusher		Henry	Stewart	X	X
Leading Receiver		Moulds	Hakim	X	X
Coaching		Williams	Mornhinweg		X

Key Injuries:

LIONS: Bill Schroeder, WR, Ankle, Day-to-day; Michael Ricks, TE, Groin, Day-to-day.

BILLS: Dave Moore, TE, Broken Hand, Day-to-Day; Mike Williams, OT, Hamstring, Questionable; Tony Driver, S, Hip, Questionable; Antoine Winfield, CB, Knee, Doubtful;.

Key Players:

LIONS:

Joey Harrington: I’m not sure if the Lions have any “key players” other than from the perspective of having absolutely no one behind them on the depth charts. But if there is one, then it has to be Harrington. He is the Lions’ only hope in this game since the Bills should have no difficulty lighting it up vs. that abysmal Lion D.

James Stewart: Stewart only makes the list because the Bills simply cannot afford to allow him to have one of his rare career rushing performances. But he is coming off of a 172 yard rushing effort yielding 2 TDs and 200 total yards. So that should be it for a few games for him.

BILLS:

Drew Bledsoe: Drew should get back on the fast track after a very average performance against a very tenacious defense last week in Miami. The Detroit passing D should look more like a practice D than what Drew faced last week.

Travis Henry: The better Henry runs, the better chance the Bills have at winning due to having a well-rounded ball-control style of offense. Also, a big day for Henry means much-needed rest for the young Bills D.

Key Matchups:

Harrington vs. the Bills pass-rush and secondary: Which Bills’ defense will show up? That's the question of the week. That will likely determine how effective Harrington is. Also, how will our depleted secondary, playing without steady starter Antoine Winfield, play against the average wide-receiving corps featuring Az Hakim and Germane Crowell? That battle may well determine whether or not the Lions can hang with the Bills. Whether or not Ricks and Schroeder are ready to go will also have a huge impact.

James Stewart vs. the Bills front 7: The Bills are not deft at stopping many running backs this season. Let’s hope the improvement from last week vs. Miami starts to stick. Then again, Stewart is not exactly a household name among NFL running backs.

Travis Henry vs. the Lions front 7: The Lions’ front-7 poses no particular threat. They are an average unit; and if they play above themselves in a game, they can put a damper on Henry’s quest for a third solid game in a row. Henry not only needs to start playing solid games back to back if the Bills can seriously expect to make the playoffs at this point, but he also needs to start carrying the ball well for most of his runs. Currently, his tendency is to break several big runs during a game while the vast majority of his runs go for nothing significant and do not particularly help the team otherwise. Henry needs to start running the ball up the middle or off-tackle for 4, 5, and 6 yards when needed with regularity if he is to be considered among the league’s elite running backs.

Bills Special Teams vs. Lions Special Teams: It’s no secret that the Bills special teams, other than the punting and field goal kicking, is nothing special. Meanwhile, both Howard and Hakim are capable of breaking big returns. If touchdown runbacks on punts and/or kickoffs occur, that could easily be enough to balance out the Bills offense.

Trends:

Detroit has won the last two matchups vs. the Bills. Over the past 4 meetings dating back to ’94, the home team has prevailed every time.

Overall Matchup:

On paper this matchup should be a blowout. There is nothing to suggest that Drew & Co. cannot put up at least 40 points in this game. This matchup pits Drew and the prolific Bills passing game, and a seemingly improving rushing game, up against a sad defense that will be lucky to prevent Drew & Co. from moving the ball on any given drive even if not for scores. Look for Drew to light things up again in a rebound from last week, while Travis Henry posts yet a third solid game back-to-back.

Unless Stewart repeats his feat of last week, the Lions passing attack will have some success, but will ultimately fall short in this one as the experienced Drew outguns the rookie with promise, Harrington. Age and experience over youth and agility in this one. The Lions really have little to counter with, and unless turnovers become a large issue, the Bills will win this one handily. Again, however, the injury status of Schroeder and Ricks at game time may make a difference.

Finally, last week in Miami the Bills kicked off short in order to avoid allowing the Dolphin returners to have a shot at running the ball back. The average starting field position that the Bills gave up on kickoffs was at the Miami 38 yard-line. Note to Greg Williams: If you are going to do that again , try simply kicking the ball out of bounds and handing it to them at their 40. That will take all the risks out of the kicking coverage. Or, you could simply kickoff normally and force the special teams unit to start learning how to play special teams properly! Just a suggestion.

Ramifications:

The Bills will be 5-3 and heading into one last home game against the Patriots prior to their bye week with a victory here. Beating the Pats at home is very possible given their current 3-game skid and an upcoming game against Denver this weekend. The “12th Man” will be pumped up for both games realizing the importance of a sweep here to make the impossible seem almost likely. But first things first. Detroit must be dealt with quickly and decisively before the Bills can begin to boast that they are better than average.

All of the sudden "playoffs" is a word that has some meaning in Buffalo. Of course, two words that coach Williams has no doubt forbidden the players to utter are “should” and “easy” this year. There has been no such thing as a "gimme" or a "rout" for Buffalo. But while the Bills are only 1-2 at home, the Lions are 0-3 on the road and have averaged only 17 points in those three games, while allowing an average of 37. This is good news for a Bills team in search of a dominating game to demonstrate that they are not simply capable of playing to the level of the competition each week no matter how poor that competition is. Additionally, the average margin of road losses for Detroit is 20 points.

There is a first time for everything however, and I am of the opinion that the Bills will have no difficulty sending the Lions back to Detroit with any semblances of playoff hopes that they may have had put to rest. I see the Bills finally cracking one open and routing the Lions this week before a frenzied home crowd, and on the heels of an outstanding defensive performance.