| December 06, 2002 | « Previous Story | HOME | Next Story » | Posted at 11:27 PM |
Matchup Data:
Weather:
As of Wednesday the weather for this game should be around 40 degrees and mostly cloudy with no forecasted precipitation.Key Injuries:
There should be no significant injuries for either team come game-day.
The Bills are coming off of a game in which the offense revived itself under the rushing of Travis Henry who appears to be turning himself into one of the league’s elite rushers. Now if only we had an offensive coordinator as enthusiastic about his running backs as he was about his quarterbacks. Last week’s game was interesting to say the least from a defensive perspective. Enthusiasm over the defense’s success against the passing game takes a seat at the foot of the throne that allowed 270 yards rushing more closely resembling a college matchup than a pro game. In any case, Miami seems destined to doom itself in the passing department when playing us by self-destructing, however, do not expect the same from the perfection-minded Belichick. Any weaknesses in our armor will surely be exploited by him. There would seem to be quite a few if the earlier matchup this season is to be any indication. Even if this game ends up in a loss, it would be good for the Bills to at least make the score respectable after suffering its worst defeat all season in Buffalo against these same Patriots just five weeks earlier.
Key Players:
PATRIOTS:Key Matchups:Tom Brady: Brady and Smith both had outstanding games in the first matchup between these two teams. However, if the Bills are to win this, then likely they will need help in the form of turnovers which are more likely to come from Brady than from Smith who has not been particularly fumble-prone, either this season or during his career.BILLS:Patriots D: The Patriot D had their way with the Bills offense in the last game. If that repeats itself, then this game will be over by the half as well.
Brian Belichick: Look partly for a chess match here and in that case, Belichick will outperform Williams. Count on Belichick to take advantage of any weaknesses and strengthen those that the Pats need to in order for them to prevent us from lighting things up.
Drew Bledsoe: Drew is only key here because if he is highlighted in this game as the media would have its way, then the Bills’ chances for victory go down dramatically. There should be no question after the first matchup between these two teams the team benefiting most from the knowledge possessed by or against Bledsoe is the Patriots. Hence, it does not behoove the Bills to play into that discrepancy.Travis Henry:
Henry needs to be the focal point of the offense in this game if the Bills expect to win or even keep the game close. Had he been the focal point early on in the game in Buffalo, then perhaps the Bills would have won that game. Teams having beaten the Patriots have done so largely by rushing the ball and/or by playing outstanding defense. Since option B, tremendous defense is not an option for us, Henry’s rushing is the answer.
Bills D: While the Bills’ D is the Bills’ D and is not good, allowing 38 points and what could have easily been 45 in the first matchup, will not help win this game. Even last week against a completely one-dimensional Ricky Williams led offense they gave up 21 points. Look for the defense to have a particularly tough time since Greg Williams attempted to score an additional touchdown after Belichick graciously did not try to score again late in the last game. Belichick may no be as gracious this go-round.
Greg Williams/Kevin Gilbride: Belichick humbled Williams in the first matchup. It is unlikely that Williams would outcoach Belichick, but he will have to make appropriate changes and adjustments that so far this year he has not been all that deft to make. Another lackadaisical coaching effort will doom the Bills again. This may quite possibly be the most key matchup for the game.
Bledsoe vs. the Patriot Pass-rush and secondary: Drew played a solid game last week against a seemingly confused and under-performing Miami squad in a veritable snowstorm. Who knows exactly why the Miami D was off, but we cannot expect the same this week in Foxborough for what will be the second most important game from here on out for the Pats. Look for more of the same from the first game although not necessarily exactly the same given Belichick’s coaching brilliance.Trends:Travis Henry vs. the Patriot Rush D: If the Bills win this one, then expect to see some big numbers in the boxscore under Henry. The way to beat the Pats is by rushing, not by attacking a pass defense that is deft at pass-rushing as well as covering for the most part. Greg Williams vs. Brian Belichick: Another chess match, at least for Belichick while Williams and Gilbride are over on the checkers board.
Overall Matchup:
Ramifications:The primary matchup here is that between Greg Williams and Bill Belichick. Unfortunately for Williams, he is not even in the same league as Belichick and his team will have to respond with an additional performance effort on the field to overcome the discrepancy in coaching in this one. If Williams and Gilbride fall prey to the “Bledsoe v. Brady” hype as they did in game one, this will be a loss as well. The Bills, to have any chance of victory, will absolutely need to run the ball well as 4 of 5 teams that have beaten the Pats have done so far this season. While fans are mentioning playoffs again following an emotional and amazing victory last week at the Ralph, what many fans seem to be overlooking was the Bills having allowed an alarming 270 rushing, 228 of which by Ricky Williams alone for well over an 8 yard-per-carry average. If Antowain Smith is allowed to rush for even half of that in what figures to be halfway decent weather, then the Bills will be in trouble.
If this turns into a Bledsoe-Brady gunfight, then look for the Pats to win again. Largely due to the differences in styles of passing offenses in conjunction with the defenses going up against each. The Patriots short style passing game is much more likely to experience success against a Bills’ defense that has yet to prove that it can stop any team from doing that. On the flip side, the Patriots’ defensive strength in game one was the variations in blitz schemes and formations that they threw at the Bills who were ill-equipped to make the necessary changes in time to effectively counter. The Bills simply did not have the time to develop their deep routes and patterns and they did not effectively adjust to not being able to do so.
If the Bills are going to win this one then look for #20 to have at least 30 carries and well over 100 yards. In game one against these Patriots Henry had 11 carries. Last week against the Dolphins in what turned out to be the Bills largest margin of victory, most convincing win, and highest offensive output all season, Henry had 151 yards on 35 carries. Meanwhile, Bledsoe posted his second best passing performance all season by putting up 3 touchdowns on over 300 yards passing and added yet another rushing to put his TD total at 4 on the day. His passer rating was the second highest all season.
So it stands to reason that rushing Henry more does not detract from Bledsoe’s numbers, rather it opens up the defense and does not allow defenders to double and triple team our receivers and play cover-two constantly. So if there is anything that last week’s game should have plainly and concretely revealed to Kevin Gilbride it is that the Bills best chances for winning each and every week are to ensure that Travis Henry gets at least 25 and probably more likely 30 rushes each week. The $25,000 question is whether or not the pass-happy Gilbride will realize that and whether he only ran Henry due to the inclement weather, or whether he did it because he realized the offense could not continue on as it had been by throwing the ball while ignoring the rushing game. Unfortunately I am not convinced that it is not the former.
If, a big if, the Bills start rushing Henry such that their offense retracks itself as it did last week, then the Bills have a legitimate shot at winning 3 of their 4 remaining games or so. However, if they go back to passing at every opportunity, then look for them to drop 3 if not all 4 remaining games to teams that are better than we are. It is a simple matter of coaching and associated play-calling. The Patriots will outcoach us while San Diego and Green Bay will both threaten to do what Williams did to us with Tomlinson and Green. Cincinnati is even playing better ball and may run on us as well.
The Bills have an uphill battle to make the playoffs and can only seemingly beat the Dolphins as the only decent team that they can beat, and then only under bizarre circumstances. First Lucas handing the Bills 6 turnovers as if it were Christmas in his first start. More recently, in the onset of a near blizzard, three more forced turnovers for 9 of the Bills’ season total 14. The Bills essentially need to run the table here in order for them to have a legitimate shot at the playoffs. Since they are not as good as any of the next three teams that they play and since two of those three games are on the road, those chances are slim to none.
The Patriots on the other hand improve their divisional record to 3-1 with a win here. A victory would represent the first of two nails to cement a division title. The second will be the season finale against the Dolphins in Foxborough on the 29th of December. Those two victories will essentially all but ice the Patriots’ divisional title barring some bizarre occurrences. While the Bills are still alive mathematically, when that word “mathematically” seems to come out it is usually a polite way of saying “no realistic chance on earth!” Suffice it to say that the team with the most to play for is the Patriots.