We have come a long way in 3 weeks since the Bills impressive opening day rout of the Patriots at home in a playoff atmosphere. The talk has turned from anger over not being the number one power ranked team in the league in several polls, and of an easy path to the Super Bowl, to that of firing Greg Williams and Kevin Gilbride along with a whole host of other criticisms not suggesting that those making them are any longer expecting even a division championship let alone anything more.

The “McNabb-challenged” tail-dragging Philadelphia Eagles, supposedly with a depleted defense, all banged up, and coming into the Ralph at 0-2, were supposed to have been a very beatable team for the Bills. So much for that notion. Can anyone say déjà vu? It seems to me that the team on the field this season really is not all that different from that of last season. Other than the special teams clearly having improved in most aspects, the rest seems the same, possibly even worse. Which is beyond me as to how “getting worse” could have possibly occurred with all the youth and lack of offensive turnover for the Bills.

MORE OF THE SAME:

Pass, pass, pass your way to success!!! In the first half, the Bills dropped back to pass 14 times vice only attempting to run 6 times. Why? The Bills dropped back to pass 20 times vice attempting to run only 8 times prior to the score becoming enough of a concern to warrant necessarily doing that. Why? Six rushing attempts in the first half is not even enough to be able to ascertain whether the run was working or not. Four rushing attempts in the second half at all? It defies common sense, reason, and logic. But then we are dealing with Kevin Gilbride here.

Five of nine drives were 100% passing plays, with another having been 9 of 11 passing plays. We can count on one hand, and still have plenty of fingers remaining by-the-way, how many times the Fullback was used as a lead blocker. Wasn’t that what this season was all about if the front-office-speak was to be believed? Can you say déjà vu! So what’s the problem? Kevin Gilbride of course. Need we inquire further! I guess the Bills have already determined for the season that the rushing game will not be fruitful after 4 games of “giving it the old college try”, so it is back to the “Gilbride approach.” What Tom Donahoe sees in Kevin Gilbride is beyond me.

I have been saying it since Gilbride was hired, but the man is a liability and hindrance who is preventing the Bills from achieving all that they can achieve offensively while simultaneously hindering defensive effectiveness indirectly and as a result. The same types of patterns of offensive coordinating that made Buddy Ryan feel he needed to T-off on Gilbride over a decade ago are still present today with the Bills. If Gilbride has not learned by now, then I dare say that he will never learn. Yet, Donahoe seems to desire to continue to try and squeeze a square peg into a round hole, presumably due to his ties with Gilbride while in Pittsburgh.

REASONS FOR THE LOSS:

Kevin Gilbride! Plain and simple. Passing the ball 43 times vice rushing it 10 times with the running backs for 81% rushing is indicative of some serious issues. Of course the post-game front-office-speak mantra will be “he had to throw, the team was down...” Blah, blah, blah! If Gilbride and the offense are going to panic everytime the Bills are down by 7 or 10 early in the game, then that is a non-factor and Gilbride needs to be replaced even sooner than next season. As I mentioned at the onset of the season, having promoted Kevin Gilbride to quarterbacks coach is like the fox guarding the hen house. Bad idea.

Drew Bledsoe: Numbers wise, Drew did not have that poor a game. Consider however that through 3 quarters of play it netted only 117 yards. The Bills are going to need somewhat better consistency to be taken seriously in upcoming weeks. As well, being a bit more pragmatic here, passing plays also ended 7 of 9 drives on 3rd downs and once on 4th down. Have we not learned anything from last season! As well, Drew’s lack of mobility renders him a completely one-dimensional quarterback who is predictable and easy for any but the worst of defenses to plan for.

Offensive line: The question of the season is what on earth has happened to the offensive line between this season and last to have made such a difference in their level of play? Last year Jonas Jennings looked like a blossoming pro-bowler, young Mike Williams looked very much the number one draft pick that he was, and the rest of the line followed their lead. This season, you would guess that they are all aging vets or rookies simply by judging their play. Pass protection has been OK although there is plenty of room for improvement. Run blocking is clearly an issue with nary a running back on the team’s roster being able to find many holes. This game seemed to have been a slight improvement over past weeks, but nevertheless, without any serious attempt to establish a rushing game, courtesy of Mr. Gilbride, it is certainly difficult to be certain.

Rushing defense: Say what you will about the Bills’ “improved rushing D”, the addition of Sam Adams, etc., but the fact remains, that the rush defense remains amongst the worst in the league unchanged from last season and quite possibly even worse judging by the numbers. The only element which is currently keeping it better is the inability for the Pats and Jags to have run more due to their having been behind in those games thereby limiting their rushing attempts. So even the Bills’ poor ranking will not reflect the degree of the problem as the Bills allowed 177 rushing yards, 130 even after McNabb’s contributions. The lopsided time of possession, approximately 34 minutes for the Eagles vice only 26 minutes for the Bills, is clearly the result of such shoddy run defense coupled with Gilbride’s play selections on offense. .

QUARTER SEASON ASSESSMENT:

I currently see a team reaping the fruits of its lack of addressing its primary needs adequately in the offseason. The four primary needs for the Bills following last season were to find a pass-rushing defensive end, a solid defensive tackle, one or two outside linebackers, and a very solid interior offensive lineman. The Bills adequately corrected one of those four areas while wasting their other draft choices and cap money on band-aid fixes. Other than Mike Williams and arguably Josh Reed, there is not a single other draftee from the ’02 or ’03 drafts that figure to make any significant impact whatsoever for this team this season. Many are pinning their hopes on the introduction of Willis McGahee, however without any blocking by the offensive line, McGahee’s production will also be hindered regardless of how good he may in fact be. Furthermore, McGahee will be looking to avoid his fourth knee injury in as many of his last consecutive seasons.

Takeo Spikes was a huge addition and will continue to prove that his acquisition was a solid one. However, Sam Adams, for the nearly $2 million, plus any potential incentives that he ends up getting paid for, is overpaid given his inability to play full-time as he must split time with Edwards. He simply is not the tackle that he once was, very clearly. Jeff Posey is fine on pass rushes, but useless otherwise. Ryan Denney is average at best and very clearly not worth the trade-up second round selection that Donahoe used to acquire him with in ‘02. Kelsay, for a “shoulda-been first rounder”, given that he cannot crack the starting lineup with the mediocre play that currently exists at his position, certainly does not make anyone speak too loudly that his selection was a wise one either at 48th overall and reportedly, albeit by the Bills front office, a “real steal” at that selection. First and second rounders, especially defensive players, should be expected to make contributions in their rookie seasons. His lack of playing time suggests that he is unable to do so given the ever-impending need at his position.

Meanwhile, Donahoe’s “solution” for interior offensive line help was last season’s 7th round selection Pucillo, currently the weakness of the O-line. This decision was sketchy at best given Bledsoe’s need for the absolute best in protection in order to get a good game out of him. The other fixes are an ’03 fifth rounder Sobieski who did not even start in college and a below average and unproven journeyman in Tucker.

Since the basis for solid execution in the NFL begins and ends at the offensive and defensive lines, I am of the opinion that these were not good areas to ignore in that fashion or to try to find bargain fixes given the options. Perhaps Donahoe will figure that out this offseason. But for now, there is really little practical difference between this season’s team and last season’s primarily as a result of seemingly unimproved line play on both sides of the ball and quite possibly a regression in play on the offensive side. Sure, Milloy is a huge upgrade, but the secondary was not a huge cause for concern last season. Spikes is a very significant addition, but he and Posey are being asked to makeup for the lack of defensive line play that plagues this team and resulting in their inabilities to effectively play their own positions optimally. When selectively used in such a manner, that may not be a problem. However, when that becomes the rule as it has become, then issues are bound to arise.

The Bills this season appear to be little different that last season’s squad which could only beat .500-caliber or sub .500-caliber competition while struggling mightily versus the types of teams that will enter the playoffs. Certainly their track record thus far does not indicate any differently. The offense continues its 14 game streak of averaging less than 20 points per game with an average offensive output over that stretch of only 18.1 points-per-game. Inflating that are the two 38 point games, one versus the hapless Jags this season, the other vs. a Fiedler-less Dolphins last season in a blizzard on primarily big plays. Discounting those two games, in the other 12 games during that stretch the Bills have averaged only 14.8 offensive points. I find this to be both disturbing as well as incredulous given the hype afforded Bledsoe and Gilbride.

Never fear however, fans should once again be singing the team’s praises following what should be a walkover win versus the hapless Bengals who will be without a healthy Corey Dillon if not without him altogether. So simply double covering Chad Johnson should shut them down. As well, I find that it would be unlikely for Jon Kitna to put two very good games back to back, which is what will have to happen for the Bengals to win this one. After that, the Bills travel to New York to face what should be another walkover against the 1-3 Jets.

It will be the last 10 games however that will determine how good a team the Bills are. Assuming wins over the Bungals and Jets, the Bills will have to do somewhat better than .500 over their last 10 in order to qualify for the playoffs. After the Redskins, 5 of the remaining 9 games are on the road against three likely playoff teams, and all five formidable and well-coached opponents including the Patriots on the road who will likely be ending their season looking to exact revenge for the thrashing that they took in Buffalo in week one. At some point, the Bills, if they are even remotely improved, will have to beat the teams that will be in the playoffs this season. This is something that the Bills have not accomplished either this season thus far or last season.

After all, the goal is to make the playoffs and succeed in them, not simply to make them. Many fans get all excited about a simple record built on sand that is good enough to “make the playoffs.” But in my mind, if the team is only destined to get their pride and manhood handed to them in a first round loss due to an inability to beat playoff caliber opponents, then there is little sense in getting excited over a playoff “appearance.” Thus far, this team has terminal issues in achieving that goal, largely due to coaching led by the utter ineffectiveness of Kevin Gilbride. There are other coaches to share the blame including Williams, but I do believe the Gilbride experiment is over. Time for Tom Donahoe to deal with that following this season regardless of how the remaining 12 games play out.

On paper this team should easily find its way to 20+ points each week. But again, in 12 of the team’s last 14 games, offensive production is averaging fewer than 15 points-per-game! In terms of where 14.8 PPG ranks in terms of NFL standards, using last season’s final statistics, it ranks ahead of only last season’s Dallas and Houston squads. Even the average 18.1 PPG production of the last 14 games inclusive ranks ahead of only last season’s Bears, Bengals, Cardinals, and Panthers teams in addition. This season’s average offensive production is less than 19 PPG on the whole and less than 7 PPG over the past two weeks. Yet, the media keeps singing Bledsoe’s and Gilbride’s praises! Ironically, both are repeatedly given a pass when it comes time to assess blame in so far as the media goes.

Unfortunately, the games are not played on paper. And on the field, the Bills are getting out-coached, out-executed, and out-hustled. Strategizing to utilize the linebackers to offset the defensive line shortcomings has predictably fallen short. There is no depth to the offensive line and they often look confused and inept mostly due to Pucillo and Teague, not that Brown, Jennings, or Williams are on pace to make the Pro Bowl either however. They are also demonstrating tremendous difficulty in run blocking.

It is somewhat of a head-scratcher to be sure, which is why the coaches are to blame first and foremost. I realize that they have not been necessarily dealt a “fair hand” in being given the tools by Donahoe to correct the line play of both lines, nevertheless, good coaches get more out of less with their players. And what about LeBeau? Could it be that perhaps the coach who’s defenses while in Cincinnati were consistently ranked at or near dead last has implemented some of his own “coaching strategies” here in Buffalo? Could such an influence possibly be a portion of the reason for why the Bills are playing as poorly as last season with superior talent? LeBeau sits quietly under the radar, but what impact if any has he had? Clearly it is not a good one if at all. While the Bills are struggling, it is also clear that Williams, LeBeau, Gilbride, and Gray are getting less with more.

The Bills have two very easy upcoming games to use to correct their ailing ways, the first of which is next week at home. If the team does not emerge with very decisive victories against both opponents, then the issues run deeper than anyone realizes. The talent on the Bills exceeds the talent on both teams more than marginally to the extent that a loss versus either opponent would be inexcusable. Let’s hope that some answers can be found during that time prior to heading into a schedule that promises to be less forgiving than a pair of teams a combined 1-7. If so, the Bills may still be able to salvage a successful season and break the current 14-game streak of offensive mediocrity. If not, then this team that was so “up-and-coming” or possibly “arrived”, will have some very serious questions to answer in the offseason and some tough mirrors to look into as fans begin the game of second-guessing everything that the organization does.

Mark Weiler is an analyst/writer covering Bills football for BillsZone.com. Questions/comments can be directed to mweiler.billszone@cox.net.