David vs Goliath

by Patrick Godwin

Why I think the Buffalo Bills will beat the New England Patriots this Sunday!

The unwinnable game! David vs. Goliath! The Big Bad Patriots versus the little old Buffalo Bills! We’ve all heard for the past two weeks how the Buffalo Bills are on a fast track to a big time beating at the hands of the reining Super Bowl Champions.

 After all, the Patriots are 2-0 and coming off a Super Bowl season and the Buffalo Bills are 0-2 and coming off a 6-10 season. Why even show up at Ralph Wilson Stadium on Sunday? It’s obvious that the high powered Patriots outclass the Bills. Right?

Not so fast trigger! This fan seems to think the Patriots are ripe for the taking. That this Sunday the Buffalo Bills will do the rest of the NFL a big favor and knock the Patriots down a few pegs. In order to do this, I’ll be thinking outside the box a bit. I’m going to take a break from looking at what these teams have done over the past year and look at some NFL trends. Not to mention a few things that may have slipped past a few people while they were busy patting the Patriots on the back. Remember that my argument is not that this is not a good team, this is a very good team. My argument is that even great teams have to lose at some point.

Let us start with this consecutive win streak. We’re talking about the NFL here. A league where it’s difficult to win 3 games in a row let alone 17. On a year to year basis, the Superbowl winning team is lucky to get 5 or 6 wins in a row. The talent level in this league is just too even. A prolonged win streak requires much more than simple talent. That is clearly evident with this edition of the Patriots. 4 of the wins were by 3 points or less. 9 of the 17 wins were by 7 points or less. Call it luck, call it good coaching, call it a deal with the devil, but that streak has to come to an end at some point. They have to roll snake eyes at some point.

Last week after the Baltimore Ravens went into Cincinnati and manhandled the Bengals, CBS cameras were in the Ravens locker room. They showed footage of Brian Billick, the football genius dejour from 3 years ago, talking to his team. He told them that winning an NFL football game on the road was the toughest things to do in all sports. We all know that in the NFL, home teams have a great advantage. In betting circles it’s common knowledge that the home team gets 3 points in nearly every line.

I took this one step further and looked at road games against division opponents. Teams play their 3 division opponents each 2 times a year. Each team is very familiar with their division opponents. Not to mention any rivalries or animosity that may or may not have developed over the years. I also speak from experience when I say that the home crowd always seems to be into the game more when a division opponent is in town. In breaking down the 2003 season, I found that the combined record for all 32 NFL teams playing on the road against division opponents was 38-58. A .395 winning percentage. Now I was surprised to find that 16 teams finished 2-1 in these games. That includes 10 of the 12 playoff teams.

More interesting however is the fact that 10 teams finished 0-3 and get this, not a single team finished 3-0 in road division games. Not even the Eagles, the Chiefs or the Mighty Patriots. That’s a startling figure. And let me assure you, we’re not talking about the Cardinals beating the 49ers and the Bills beating the Jets. Some of the surprises were Detroit beating Green Bay, Chicago beating Minnesota and St. Louis losing to San Francisco. When this Patriot streak comes to come to an end there’s a very good chance it will happen in New York, in Miami or in Buffalo.

I’m not going to talk about who has the better running back or who coach is better in the last 2 minutes of the game. That’s not what this piece is about. This is about those football cliches that we hear all the time. Pick your favorite, “On Any Given Sunday”, “That’s why they play the games” or my personal favorite, "Nobody, Circles the Wagons like the Buffalo Bills!"

Go Bills!