2005 Bills' Salary Cap Analysis & Outlook

by Bob Balistreri

Once again, Buffalo Bills fans are depressed. Five years is much too long an absence from the playoffs. Win just one more game! It truly makes you hungry, excited for next season, and the future for the Buffalo Bills organization. It was somewhat refreshing that the final game of the season actually had some meaning, but I'm definitely not satisfied. It can be said that the Bills are a legitimate playoff caliber team, however, they are certainly a few players away from being in the same elite status and true Super Bowl contender like New England. That being said, before I look at 2005, I will do a brief final accounting of 2004 salary cap. I will then analyze 2005 and then finish with my free agency and draft outlook. This is a long article so get a six-pack of your favorite beverage and enjoy.


As of 1/2/05, the official end of the Buffalo Bills' 2004 season, I had the Bills $1,784,654 million under an adjusted salary cap of $79,759,085 with $6,852,576 "dead cap". All players have been accounted for in these numbers. It also includes the full year cost of the practice squad ($73,950 X 8 players = $591,600), an approximation of Travis Brown's injury settlement ($450,000), and workout bonuses for every player on the roster prior to the draft (off-season workout bonuses $100/workout session). It does not include any bonus information for DT Ron Edwards. (Originally, he was given the minimum tender of $628,000 as a RFA but signed a two year deal but no bonus information has been available). Bills' GM Tom Donahoe, in a recent Q & A at the official site, said that the Bills could have NLTBE incentives earned in 2004 covered by remaining cap space in 2004. One such incentive may be the $150,000 NLTBE Pro Bowl bonus Moulds apparently earned which did not count on the 2004 cap. So in conclusion, subtract any bonus for Ron Edwards and hope that the rest can be applied to NLTBE incentives that would otherwise impact on the 2005 salary cap through a cap adjustment (more on this soon).


Please refer to the 2005 Salary Cap Page . Well, as of 2/20/05, I have the Bills $7,418,595 under an estimated "unadjusted" salary cap of $86 million (reports have the salary cap between $85-87 million) with $5,170,441 "dead cap" with $4,333,333 from Drew Bledsoe alone. I have made the assumption that the Bills will do the obvious and pay the option bonuses to both Lee Evans and J. P. Losman. My number includes the eventual release of Drew Bledsoe on Feb 22, Eric Moulds' simple restructure, and both Nate Clements and Mike Williams triggering their salary escalators.

Remember that during the off-season (start of League Year March 2nd until final 53 man roster), teams follow the "top 51" rule. Essentially, the "top 51" rule takes the players with the top 51 cap charges and all other bonuses from all other players to calculate the teams total cap charge. Subtract this number from the $86 million and you get how much a team is under (over) the salary cap. A few points first:

• Bills still need to tender RFAs & EFAs
• Bills are still awaiting an official salary cap and cap adjustment
• Other missing information

Tenders to RFAs & EFAs

The Bills have 3 players who qualify as RFAs: G Mike Pucillo, RB Joe Burns, and CB Kevin Thomas. Of these three, only CB Kevin Thomas is likely to get a minimum qualifying offer with compensation being a 6th rd pick. I'm reasonably estimating $650,000 because in 2003 it was $605,000 and 2004 it was $628,000. While I like Joe Burns' versatility as a FB/RB/special teams, tendering him at $650,000 does not likely make sense. Because of his versatility, I do foresee him being re-signed, especially with the prospect of Travis Henry departing. Mike Pucillo saw very limited playing time and will not be tendered. It is possible the Bills re-sign him, but I believe it's more likely that he will seek opportunities with another team. The Bills have 2 players, possibly 3, that qualify as EFAs: LB Josh Stamer, LS Jon Dorenbas, and late season addition RB Dante Brown. Tender for EFAs in 2004 was $380,000, so I will make a reasonable estimate of $400,000. I would certainly tender all 3 players. Stamer is used quite often in goalline or short yardage defenses and is a solid special teams player. Dorenbas has performed well as a long snapper. Both could be considered for multi-year deals. I would like to see Dante Brown get an entire off-season and training camp with the team to show us what he can do. So, adding up the tenders ($650,000 + (3 x $400,000) = $1.85 million). Adjusting for "top 51", the tenders take up $780,000 on the cap.

I now have the Bills at $6,638,595 under.

Cap Adjustments

The salary cap number released by the NFL and reported by the various media outlets is what's called an "unadjusted" salary cap. It's the salary cap derived from the provisions within the CBA using specified DGR's (designated gross revenues). However, each team is subject to what's called a "cap adjustment". The cap adjustment is derived from "Not-Likely-To-Be-Earned" (NLTBE) and "Likely-To-Be-Earned" (LTBE) incentives that nearly all players have in their contracts. LTBE's count against the cap year in which they are expected to be earned while NLTBE's do not count against that cap year. Example: If a player has a LTBE in 2004 and does not achieve it (basis for the Philly Loophole), then the team receives a credit for the amount of the LTBE in the following cap year. If a player has a NLTBE and achieves it, one of two things can happen. If the NLTBE incentive is earned, then it may be applied to that year using any remaining cap space or it will be a debit on the following cap year. When all the NLTBE and LTBE incentives are accounted for, each team has either a credit or debit that becomes their cap adjustment. Bills have had a debit each of the past 3 seasons. I do not have cap adjustment information prior to the 2002 season. The cap adjustments for 2002-2004 were approx. $2.2 million, $1,083,586, and $822,925 respectively. Each year, I have made an educated guess as to what the cap adjustment will be and have been over by about 25% each time. This year, I will be estimating $1.5 million. Primarily due to McGahee and Evans productivity. Cap adjustments are usually available "in cyberspace" by late-February, so I hope to have this info soon.

I now have the Bills $5,138,595 under.

Other missing information

Now that I have confirmed that Mike Williams has triggered his salary escalator, there is only one thing I'm still trying to obtain: DT Ron Edwards bonus information. However, that is not expected to impact the cap all that much.

Where can the Bills find cap space?

The Bills can find as much cap space that they want to create. They can sign players to extensions that create cap space in the short term, restructure deals that convert salary to bonus, release players, or trade players. The problem is that future cap years get burdened with additional cap dollars and then the vicious cycle of cap jail/hell starts over again. GM Tom Donahoe and others in the front office have done a wonderful job managing the salary cap. While I want the Bills to be somewhat aggressive in addressing the needs of the team, I also want them to make wise cap decisions that do not hurt future cap years.

The question posed: "Where can the Bills find additional cap space?"

I will highlight those options, in my opinion, the Bills will likely undertake and may also consider.

Eric Moulds: DONE

(I have edited this section in response to the extension Moulds recently agreed to. My original thoughts were a 2 or 3 yr extension that saved around $2.5 million on both 2005 & 2006.)

I had hoped the Bills could have done something with his deal in 2004, but looking at the aforementioned 2004 final accounting, it's clear now that the Bills did not have the cap space available. It wasn't a surprise that Moulds was the first salary cap decision made for 2005. His cap numbers for both 2005 ($8.775 million) & 2006 ($9.189 million) were definitely cap prohibitive. The new deal is basically a simple restructure. In 2005, Moulds was due $5.5 million salary, $1 million reporting/roster bonus and $100,000 workout bonus. That accounted for a cash value of $6.6 million. His cap number also included $2 million proration from his $12 million signing bonus he received in 2001 and $175,000 LTBE Pro Bowl bonus. It's been reported that his new deal gives him a $5 million signing bonus and lowers his salary to $1.5 million. That's $6.5 million he'll get in his pocket in 2005, however, since the signing bonus is amortized over 3 yrs, his cap number is now $5,166,666 instead of $8.775 million. His 2006 cap number will increase from $9.189 million to $10,855,666 because no adjustment was made to his salary per NFLPA website and it now has additional proration from the new signing bonus. Bills added a year to his deal to spread out the proration of the new signing bonus and the 2007 salary is $7.25 million and cap number is $8,916,668. It's my belief that Eric Moulds sadly will play one more season in Buffalo. I really wish more was done to lower his 2006 cap number now and not wait until this time next year.

The 2005 cap savings (already included above), per my numbers, was $8,775,000 - $5,166,666 = $3,608,334.

Drew Bledsoe: DONE

(This section also edited per recent events)

Well, it appears the writing is on the wall. I truly feel that the best option in 2005 was to keep Drew and address the needs of the offense (I will talk about this later). While I wish we could get something in return, it's not likely there is much of a trade market for him. It's now definite that Drew will be released before his $1.05 million roster bonus is due on March 2nd. His release will save $1,953,334 (adjusted for top 51). His release also adds $4,333,333 to the "dead cap".

Moulds & Bledsoe situations were apparent no-brainers, and again, cap savings were accounted for in the above numbers. The following are more speculation, but are still quite possible in some regards.

Travis Henry

Travis wants to be a starter. It clearly will not happen here in Buffalo. The problem is that the RB market is potentially flush with FA's and the draft is above average after a number of years of mediocrity. The one advantage a trade has over drafting a young RB or signing a FA is the "guaranteed" acquisition. There are no guarantees in the FA market because some of the RBs will be re-signed or tagged and the draft allows a team to jockey for position and grab the RB you wanted. I think the trade market for Travis is better than people think. He's still relatively young for a starting RB and is an inexpensive option with a salary of $1.25 million. His trade saves $1.02 million and adds only $100,000 to the "dead cap". His trade will, in all likelihood, happen before the draft. I would be happy with swapping picks in either the 3rd or 4th rd in 2005 and also get a conditional 2006 draft choice. Reports say the Bills want a 2nd rd 2005 or 3rd rd 2005 plus player. (Hmmm...how about that Travis Henry to Arizona for L.J. Shelton deal. It's cap neutral, Bills save less than $10,000 on cap, if the Bills were to do a simple restructure of Shelton's $3 million salary after acquiring him. I'll leave the calculations for y'all as an exercise.)

Pierson Prioleau

Reserve safeties in the NFL should not have a cap number of $1,687,500 ($1.25 million salary, $212,500 amortization, and $225,000 reporting/roster bonus). I do not believe the Bills had pictured him as a reserve when they signed him to an extension. However, I do believe he has a place on the team and would consider re-working his deal. The more likely option is releasing him and maybe signing him to the veterans minimum later in the off-season if he's still available. His release, when adjusted for top 51, saves $1.23 million and adds $212,500 to the "dead cap".

Mike Williams

On February 3rd, Dennis Williams reported on WNLO-TV (Channel 23 in Buffalo; sister station to Channel 4) that the Bills have asked Mike Williams' agent to re-work his deal to help the cap. This is not a surprise to me because I have his cap number now at $9.17 million because he triggered salary escalators for 2005-2007. He has 3 years remaining on his rookie deal signed in 2002. They breakdown as follows:

2005: $4 million salary, $2.17 million bonus amortization, $3 million roster bonus for a cap hit of $9.17 million. He also has a $1.5 million NLTBE incentive that I do not know how he earns.

2006: $4 million salary, $2.17 million bonus amortization, $3 million roster bonus for a cap hit of $9.17 million plus $1.5 million NLTBE.

2007: $5 million salary, $2.17 million bonus amortization plus $3.5 million NLTBE

If the report by Dennis Williams is true that the Bills have asked to re-work his deal, cap space can be found by re-working Big Mike's deal. Hopefully, something will get done before his roster bonuses are due and free agency begins.

Takeo Spikes

Spikes has 4 yrs remaining on the deal he signed as a Transition Free Agent in 2003. He's had 2 solid yrs in Buffalo and is only 28 yrs old. He has a number of solid yrs to come. The Bills could create cap space by doing a simple restructure of Spikes' $3.5 million salary in 2005. The minimum salary for Spikes' yrs of service is $665,000. So, converting the difference of $2.835 million to signing bonus and spreading it out over the 4 yrs remaining at $708,750 per season results in 2005 cap savings of $2,126,250. However, $708,750 in amortization has been added to each 2006-2008 which cannot be changed.

Aaron Schobel

Schobel has a $2 million roster bonus in 2005 as part of the 5 yr extension he signed just before the start of the 2004 season. Bills could convert the roster bonus to a signing bonus and spread it out over 2005-2009 at $400,000 per season. This would create $1.6 million cap space in 2005, but adds $400,000 to each subsequent year.

London Fletcher

Fletcher has 2 yrs remaining on the 5 yr deal he signed as an UFA in 2002. He's been a steady, productive MLB but he will be 30 in May. His cap numbers are $3.8 million(2005) and $4.8 million(2006). It's possible the Bills could do something similiar with Fletcher that they did with Moulds. Sign him to a 1 yr extension in order to save cap space in both 2005 & 2006. A safe estimate would be between $1-1.5 million. Late note: It's possible that the Bills and Rams have discussed trading Fletcher back to the Rams. Trading Fletcher would save $1.97 million in 2005 and $4.8 million in 2006. Could Kendrell Bell be GM Tom Donohoe's sights?

Nate Clements: Late addition

I check the NFLPA website nearly every day. When I logged off Thursday morning (17th), Nate Clements' salary was $540,000. When I returned home from bowling and checked, his salary was now $2.5 million. Obviously, Nate must have had a salary escalator in his rookie contract signed in 2001. I suspect that it was triggered by his Pro Bowl status, however, I can only speculate. His cap number is now $3,484,375 ($2.5 million salary, $859,375 bonus amortization, and $125,000 roster bonus). A contract extension is a concern. The CB market has exploded in the past couple of seasons. The Bills can create only modest 2005 cap savings with an extension (less than $1 million), but it is definitely something I would prefer be completed now instead of going through the soap opera of using the Franchise Tag after the season.

Other players that could be released/traded: Justin Bannan saves $225,000; Lawrence Smith saves $150,000; Josh Reed (only by trade) saves $225,000. Surprises tend to happen at this time of the year, so I'll go ahead and throw in Jeff Posey, although $1,743,660 is not a bad cap number for a starting OLB. His release or trade saves $632,500. To soothe the anti-Lindell camp, his release saves $507,500. However, it's not necessary that the Bills release any of these players now because it's likely that their replacements would count more than the cap savings and all are still players capable of making contributions to the team.

Conclusion: Bills can create approx. $12+ million from the moves I described above. It's highly likely that the Henry and Prioleau moves will occur, so that will create $2.25 million cap space in 2005. I would certainly consider either the Spikes or Schobel restructure but not both and would lean in the direction of the younger player, Schobel. These 3 moves create $2.25 million + $1.6 million = $3.85 million. The Mike Williams' situation needs be to followed closely because he apparently has the same agent as Drew Bledsoe and it could make a re-working more difficult. The Bills are in decent cap shape and do have the cap space to re-sign both Pat Williams and Jonas Jennings, however, doing so will likely take us out of the free agent market unless some of the scenarios described become reality.

My 2005 Off-Season Outlook

You could also consider this my wishlist. I had originally based this on the premise that Drew would remain here in Buffalo. I would've liked to see further adjustments of offensive personnel with Drew at the helm. However, it's not meant to be, so hopefully, the Bills' FO can make the necessary changes that will improve Losman's chances of success.

My wishlist will start with which UFAs I wish to re-sign, then which FAs I would like to see brought to Buffalo, and then I'll wrap up my wishlist with a draft outlook.

Bills UFAs: The Bills have 7 players who qualify as UFAs: OT Jonas Jennings, DT Pat Williams, OL Marcus Price, QB Shane Matthews, TE Ryan Neufeld, FS Izell Reese, and LS/TE Bradford Banta. I will address each player
separately:

OT Jonas Jennings: I've always believed that Jennings was packed and ready to move on just like Marcellus Wiley, Peerless Price, and Antoine Winfield. Once the season was over, I had felt that Pat Williams was a priority over Jennings. Now, I believe Jennings is the priority because he's younger, continuity of the OL is so important to offensive success, and the presence of a young QB at the helm. Keeping Jennings would be a huge lift towards maintaining that continuity. He will be 28 in November, so he's in his prime. I've had concerns about his willingness to play hurt and to some degree his propensity for lower leg injuries. He did play hurt during the 2004 season, but could that be the fact that he needed to play to solidify his chances in FA? He has recently commented that he wanted to stay. I hope he's truly sincere, but if he's looking for Jonathan Ogden money, no chance he'll stay. He will have many interested with Miami and New York Giants among those teams rumored to have interest. Matt Light, starting LT for the 3-time Super Bowl champion New England Patriots, signed a 6 yr extension for $27 million with $9 million bonus money back in October 2004. Granted, that's less than what Light could have received on the open market, but I would find it difficult to give Jennings much more than what Light's received. Rumor control has the Bills considering franchising Jennings. I cannot believe that because the tender is $7.424 million and it would count on the cap in full. Can the Bills franchise and then trade him? Yes, if there is a willing trade partner. The WR market was devoid of top talent in 2002, so that greatly contributed to the ability of the Bills to get something in return for Peerless Price. I do not see the same situation in the market for OT's. Late Note: Walter Jones (Seahawks) signed long-term deal with $15 million signing bonus. Ryan Diem (Colts) will re-sign for $12-14 million bonus. Parameters for Jennings' bonus are set between $9-15 million. These bonus numbers and the Bills' interest in L. J. Shelton make me believe he's not coming back.

DT Pat Williams: Pat Williams is very important to our defensive successes, especially when paired with Sam Adams to stop the run. Are either Ron Edwards or Tim Anderson ready to replace him? My answer is no, but in the salary cap era, long-term deals to players over 30 usually end up being "dead cap" problems (re: Bledsoe dead cap in 2005 is $4,333,332). The franchise tag for DT's is $5.1 million, thus we know that the upper limit for him is slightly less than $5 million/yr. I can imagine a 4 yr contract that pays more than half in the 1st 2 yrs of the deal, but I would not go any higher than $4 million/yr and would not give more than $6 million signing bonus.

OL Marcus Price: If Bills re-sign Jennings before FA period, then I suspect they will let the 33 year old Price leave. If Jennings leaves as FA, then I expect Price will be re-signed and compete for the starting job or continue his role as swing OT.

QB Shane Matthews: Bledsoe is gone. Losman is being given the reins to the offense without any appreciable playing time. Bills appear to want Shane back because he fits the role of #2 QB. Does he want to collect paycheck and hold a clipboard? Or does he want to play golf? Time will tell. I would welcome him back for another season or two.

TE Ryan Neufeld: The late season knee injuries to both Mark Campbell and Tim Euhus hindered the offense. Neufeld is not a weapon in the receiving game and is limited in his blocking. I would consider bringing him back solely for his knowledge of the offense, but only on a 1 yr vets minimum deal. Bills could do better in FA

FS Izell Reese: One only needs to look at the inactive list each week the second half of the season. His name appears nearly every week. Not likely to return.

LS/TE Bradford Banta: Late season addition who replaced LS Jon Dorenbos after his knee injury. His return will depend on how Dorenbos progresses during the off-season.


Bills needs

I will suggest where the Bills need to improve and then give some examples of FAs who could be signed to address the need. I will make the assumption that none of the Bills UFAs are signed because if Jennings and/or P. Williams are not re-signed, LT and DT become a priority over any other need.

1) LT: Right now our starting LT is Dylan McFarland or maybe Trey Teague is moved back to the position he played in Denver just prior to joining the Bills as an UFA in 2002. I won't even suggest Mike Williams, regardless of his cap number, let him continue his development and learn to dominate at RT. As mentioned shortly ago, both Jennings and Price are UFAs. Bills' GM Tom Donahoe must make this THE priority of the off-season. That is, unless, he believes someone on the roster can protect Losman's blind-side. I do like the possibility of a trade to acquire L. J. Shelton (for Henry) from the Cardinals. Some FA options: Oliver Ross(Steelers), Brad Hopkins, if released(Titans), Kevin Shaffer(Falcons-RFA)

My choice: If Jennings moves on, Shelton deal or I would try considering a RFA like Kevin Shaffer from the Falcons. Originally, he was a 7th rd pick in 2002. If he's given the minimum tender, the compensation would only be a 7th rd pick.

2) DT: If Pat Williams leaves as a FA, his replacement would likely be Ron Edwards. The primary reserve at DT would most likely be 2004 draft pick, Tim Anderson. I was not very impressed with the run D when both Williams and Adams were on the sideline. Teams could run the ball up the middle on those few plays per game. If we lose Williams to FA and then Adams to injury (cross-fingers), the defense will be bottom of the league. Bills need to either keep Williams or find a suitable replacement in FA. Ron Edwards has yet to prove to me that he's a starting caliber DT in the league. Not much available in UFA, but there are a few RFAs I like. We need to hope FA is supplemented by cap casualties.

My choice: Jarvis Green(Patriots-RFA) is a versatile DL with the Patriots. Originally, he was a 4th rd pick in 2002. If given the minimum tender, the compensation would only be a 4th rd pick. However, it's more likely that the Patriots put a higher tender on him.

3) Back up QB: Now that Bledsoe will be moving on, who will become the #2 QB? Among the reasons the Bills decided to release Drew is the plethora of veteran QBs on the market. It appears that Shane Matthews can have the job if he wants. Unfortunately, most FAs will be looking primarily starting gigs. The optimal option, Tommy Maddox, is most likely staying in Pittsburgh, but may be available via trade. Apparently, the Steelers want a 2nd or 3rd rd pick for him. I would swap positions in the draft, but I wouldn't give up a pick. This is one of the toughest choices. Bills will need a true mentor that can help Losman develop. This choice must also realize he is only the #2 AND must be able to perform when called upon. Some FA options: Kelly Holcomb(Browns), Jay Fiedler, if released(Dolphins), Brad Johnson, if released(Buccaneers), Rich Gannon (Raiders), many others.

My choice: If Shane Matthews moves on, we need a #2 with a strong enough arm to take advantage of our deep threats. Rich Gannon(Raiders) would be my choice if released and is healthy.

4) #3 WR or 3rd dependable option: This may even surpass DT and backup QB now that Bledsoe is moving on. Losman will need to prove he can find his 3rd option if Moulds and Evans are covered because defenses will be coming after him. Could that player be a healthy Mark Campbell or Tim Euhus? Time will tell, but I would prefer that option to be a slot WR who is going to get you 8 yds on 3rd and 7. Some FA options: David Patten(Patriots), Corey Bradford(Texans), Alex Bannister(Seahawks), T. J. Houshmanzadeh(Bengals), Joey Galloway(Buccaneers).

My choice(s): David Patten(NE). He ranked 2nd in 2004 on 3rd down with a 84.1% conversion rate (37/44).

5) Pass-rushing DE: Doesn't matter to me how many sacks this team had last year, the defense needs to find a way to put pressure on the QB using the defensive line. Having a player with that type of pass rushing presence is indeed rare, but it's something that must be found. This team could add a pass rusher at RDE, switch Schobel over to LDE, and then use Kelsay as a swing DE. Bills' like the development of undrafted FA DE Constantin Ritzmann, so this would leave Ryan Denney vunerable. Some FA options: Derrick Burgess(Eagles), Raheem Brock(Colts-RFA), Carlos Hall(Titans-RFA), Reggie Hayward(Broncos), Chike Okeafor(Seahawks)

My choice: Reggie Hayward(Broncos) had a productive 2004 season. He finished the season with 10.5 sacks. Hayward turns 26 shortly after the free agency period begins and is just entering his prime.

6) CB: I like McGee as a kick returner, but I'm still not overly enamoured with him as a starting CB. He was targeted by the Pats and they were able to move the ball. I want to see the Bills add a starting CB opposite Nate Clements and use McGee in the slot or matched up against the smaller WRs. It's becoming more and more evident that teams need to be 3 deep at CB in order to better match up vs offenses such as the Colts or Pats. Late Note: Nate Clements, as stated earlier, triggered a salary escalator. He will be a UFA after 2005, so signing a CB in FA makes sense if the Bills believe Nate will be difficult to re-sign. Some FA options: Anthony Henry (Browns), Ken Lucas (Seahawks), Aaron Beasley(Falcons), Chad Scott, if released(Steelers)

My choice: Anthony Henry(Browns) is a versatile player. He's played both CB and FS for the Browns and is a ballhawk. He's had 17 INT's in his 4 yr career. He will probably be off the Bills' radar screen, but I think he would be a solid addition for the secondary.

7) Interior OL: This will depend on what happens with Jennings. If Jennings re-signs, then this becomes a higher priority. Both LG and C are concerns to varying degrees. If Jennings does not re-sign, do you further weaken the OL by moving Teague to LT? Some FA options: G Kendrick Vincent(Steelers), G Rick DeMulling(Colts), G Bennie Anderson(Ravens), C Dominic Raiola(Lions)

My choice: Kendrick Vincent(Steelers) played well when Kendall Simmons was lost for the season. He's familiar with the system and members of the coaching staff. Another player entering his prime and will 27 just before the draft.

7) Depth: Bills do need to address some depth concerns at LB, RB/FB, TE, S. Fortunately, all starting LBs (Spikes, Fletcher, Posey) have been injury free and not out for long stretches. KNOCK ON WOOD! The downside is that a couple of the young backups have not been given any quality playing time. I wouldn't be adverse to adding a versatile veteran LB who can spell either Posey or Fletcher. If Henry is traded, Bills will lack a proven #2 back. Can Shaud Williams be that guy? I'm not willing to find out. He can be a Dave Meggett type, but we would need to add a proven veteran. Veteran TE could be higher priority if the prognosis on Campbell and/or Euhus is not good. Last I heard, both were questionable for training camp. If they will not be ready for the seaosn opener, we definitely need to consider a veteran TE like Freddie Jones. Safety could be considered if since it's likely that Prioleau will be released and the failure of Coy Wire to develop as a starting caliber safety. Vincent and Milloy form a solid duo, but depth is a concern. Baker still needs to do more to impress me. Some FA options: TE Freddie Jones(Cardinals), TE Cam Cleeland(Rams), TE Anthony Becht(Jets), DB Michael Stone(Cardinals), DB Lewis Sanders(Browns), LB Kendrell Bell(Steelers), LB Matt Stewart(Falcons), RB Antowain Smith(Titans), RB Anthony Thomas(Bears), RB/FB Patrick Pass(Patriots), FB Rob Konrad, if released(Dolphins)

My choices: TE Freddie Jones(Cardinals), CB/FS Michael Stone(Cardinals), RB Antowain Smith(Titans)

8) Note: notice I said nothing about PK. It's not an accident. I believe the Bills will give Lindell another year to prove himself. Bills signed street FA PK Owen Pochman, who spent some time with the Giants. If they do decide to go in another direction, I wonder if they would consider bringing back....Steve Christie?

Other note: I'm not suggesting that the Bills' make all these FA moves. Bills' do not have the cap space for that. However, I am identifying where I feel the team needs to improve and highlighted a few players I feel can come to Buffalo and help lead the team to bigger and better things.

2005 Draft

When it comes to the draft, I've always preferred "best player available". When teams are dead set on drafting on need, they make choices like DE from Arizona St, Erik Flowers. Buffalo Bills' GM Tom Donahoe made a bold move in 2003 when he selected RB Willis McGahee. He took a chance on greatness and we may just very well get that from Willis. Bills will enter the draft, barring trades, without a 1st rd pick. Bills are likely to get a compensation pick, but it will not be a 3rd and most likely not a 4th. I'm expecting a 5th. Why? Well, the compensation formula is not just who you lose as FA, but also who you sign as FA. It also includes the contract levels those players sign and what accolades the players achieve. There's a poster at KFFL.com, AdamJT13, who does an excellent in depth break down of the compensation picks. He's been remarkably accurate the past few seasons. I will make sure a link is available to his work when it becomes available. I also expect Travis Henry to be traded before the draft and that should yield no worse than a 3rd rd pick.

The draft is not where you usually target "impact players" unless you are drafting high in the 1st round. Bills took OT Mike Williams with the 4th overall pick in 2002 and he is just now starting to put things together. Bills drafted WR Lee Evans with the 13th pick overall in 2004 with the expectation that he could provide what we lost when Peerless Price was traded to Atlanta (for the pick we used to take McGahee). Initially, his production was lacking but during the second half of the season, he surpassed Moulds as the #1 WR on the team. The draft, in my honest opinion, is truly for the future. Bills' drafted QB J. P. Losman, with the 22nd overall in 2004, as the future leader of the offense. Some will question giving him the starting role, I certainly do, but it's a fine line to cross in the salary cap era. Losman has a 5 yr deal, Bills want to maximize their investment in him before he becomes a FA.

I look at the 2005 draft as a draft for the future. If a player in later rounds contributes as a rookie, that's gravy. I do not target short-term needs, that's what FA is used for, I look at down the road. Future FA and age are keys to this draft because we will have some concerns in the secondary, defensive and offensive lines, and wide receiver. Some of these concerns could be answered with young FAs. Nate Clements is UFA after 2005, Kevin Thomas could be as well if he only signs the tender offer as RFA, Troy Vincent is an aged veteran as is Lawyer Milloy. Rashad Baker looks to be the future at FS, but who's the future at SS? Pat Williams could be lost this off-season and his primary replacement, Ron Edwards will be UFA after 2005. Sam Adams isn't getting any younger. On the OL, Trey Teague can be UFA after 2005, Chris Villarrial is similiar to Troy Vincent. WR can be a concern as well because Moulds' restructuring did not address his cap number in 2006, so 2005 could be his last. Josh Reed has not yet reached the status expected from him. Sam Aiken is still unpolished as a receiver but solid contributor on special teams.

I'm not going to predict the draft now, I'll wait until later in the off-season. But my wishlist includes a true center prospect, physical CB, pure pass-rushing DE, versatile LB, and an all-around FB prospect. Of course, these players should be candidates for special teams as well. Some of players I will be looking at are: C/G David Baas(Michigan), OL Marcus Johnson(Ole Miss), OT Rob Petitti(Pitt), C Ben Wilkerson(LSU), FB Kyle Eckel(Navy), WR Reggie Brown(Georgia), TE Joel Dreessen(Colorado St), DL Chris Canty(Virginia), LB Kevin Burnett(Tennessee), LB Lance Mitchell(Oklahoma), S Thomas Davis(Georgia), CB/KR Antonio Perkins, and many others.

I'll detail the draft more in April.


I applaud each and every one of you who made it this far!! Thanks for your interest.

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