The Buffalo Bills, having pulled into a first place tie with New England in the AFC East, travel to Oakland for a key road contest this Sunday against a disappointing Oakland Raider team that is hungry for a win to salvage any hope of making the playoffs this season and will likely be without the services of star wide receiver Randy Moss. The Bills, in beating Miami and the New York Jets in successive home games that they desperately needed to win after losing three games in a row, showed the kind of steady improvement in most areas that they will need to continue to have in order to seriously compete for the division crown and a playoff berth in the AFC East.

Sparked by Willis McGahee’s tough running and a dominant performance by the offensive line that led the way in their best offensive performance of the season, the Buffalo Bills ground out a crucial victory over the Jets, despite giving up 148 yards on just 18 carries to Curtis Martin.

With the Bills’ starting offensive line, playing together for the entire game for the first time since the season opener against Houston, using its size advantage to impose their will on the quick and talented, but smallish Jets’ front seven and Willis McGahee touching the ball at least twice on 10 sequences during the game, McGahee gained 90 yards on 14 carries in the first half and finished 143 yards on 29 carries and the Bills’ first second half touchdown of the season as the Bills used their running game to control the ball for 38:25. It was the tenth time in Willis’ 16 game career that he has gained 100 yards and the fourth straight game in which in has scored at least one TD.

Despite throwing two interceptions, the second of which led to a Jets TD that got them back into the game, quarterback Kelly Holcomb again led the Bills offense with experienced calmness that allowed him to bounce back from his disastrous INT to throw a beautiful 27 yard strike to TE Mark Campbell that set up the game clinching field goal and two first half TD passes that got the Bills off to an early 14-0 lead. And, once again, the Bills special teams were truly special with Terrance McGee setting up two scores with huge kickoff returns, including a momentum changing 50 yard field goal just before halftime by Rian Lindell after the Jets had scored to cut the Bills lead to 14-10, the eighth of Lindell’s career from 50+ yards, but his first as a Bill.

While the Bills offense turned in their best performance of the season against a pretty good Jets defense, the Bills defense showed that there is still plenty of room for improvement on that side of the ball. Even though they harassed Jet QB Vinny Testaverde all game long, sacking him 5 fives and forcing him to lose a fumble and throw two interceptions, the Bills defense, once again gave up a number of big plays to the Jets, including runs of 41 and 49 yards to Curtis Martin, and, for the fifth time in six games, allowed the opposition to score on a long drive just before halftime, this time 91 yards for a TD. Angelo Crowell, playing his best game since taking over for the injured Takeo Spikes, turned in the biggest play of the game when he intercepted Testaverde at the Bills 9 yard line to blunt a scoring drive by the Jets, but only after being caught out of position on Martin’s 41 yard jaunt on the previous play. And, Nate Clements helped to set up the Jets’ TD just before halftime with an interference penalty in the end zone, one of the 13 penalties for 99 yards that the Bills committed during the game.

By beating Miami and the Jets, two division foes, at home the last two weeks, the Bills did what they had to do to turn their season around and get back into the race for a playoff berth. But, as the Bills learned in their first two road games of the season, playing on the road in the NFL is a very different animal than playing at home. And, winning at McAfee (Oakland-Alameida County) Coliseum, also known as “The Black Hole”, one of the toughest places for road teams to play in the NFL, has never been easy for any visiting team especially when the game is one that the Raiders desperately need to win.

With only one win in their first five games, the Raiders, who were expected to have an explosive offense and be a dark-horse contender out of the AFC West, have been a major disappointment this season and are on the verge of being knocked out of realistic playoff contention in the highly competitive AFC where it will probably take at least a 9-7 record to make the playoffs. Despite the off-season additions of superstar wide receiver Randy Moss and talented workhorse running back Lamont Jordan on offense and playoff star Derrick Burgess on defense and switching back to a 4-3 defense, the Raiders have under-performed on both sides of the ball this season and are coming off what Coach Norv Turner described as their worst game of the season last week at home against the Chargers.

Even though Moss, who is suffering from a groin strain, bruised ribs and a bone bruise in the pelvic region, is unlikely to play against the Bills and talented WR Ronald Curry is out for the season, Oakland still has plenty of weapons on offense in Jordan, QB Kerry Collins, WRs Jerry Porter, Doug Gabriel and Alvis Whitted and emerging tight end Courtney Anderson to go with a solid offensive line. And, while their defense has yet to mesh, it features a mix of accomplished older veterans, like Warren Sapp and former Bill Ted Washington, and a number of talented young players. With their season on the line, the Raiders can be expected to scrap and claw to the very end of this game in an effort to salvage the remainder of their season.

While the Bills, infused with confidence after their recent victories, have the talent and the ability to beat the Raiders, even in Oakland, they have yet to demonstrate that they can avoid making the kinds of mistakes and do the little things that make the difference between winning and losing on the road in the NFL. The Bills cannot afford the kind of mental mistakes and sloppy play that they were able to get away with at home in their last two games. They cannot afford to get caught out of position and give up a half a dozen big plays as they did against the Jets because, even without Randy Moss, Oakland still has the talent to make them pay for those kinds of mistakes. They will have to take care not to have the kinds of turnovers that Holcomb made and almost made that put both Miami and the Jets back into the last two games. And, above all, they will have to avoid committing costly penalties.

While the Bills lost to the Raiders last year in Oakland and have had difficulties on the road thus far this season, most of the players on this squad were part of the team last year that, after going through similar road woes early on, was able to win some big games on the road. Given the way that the team has improved over the last two games, the Bills have shown that they have the ability to overcome their mistakes—the penalties they have committed, the turnovers that they have made and the big plays that they have surrendered on defense. Now, they have to take it one step further and demonstrate that they can begin to eliminate those mistakes and do the little things that they need to do to win on the road. If they can do that, they have the talent to take advantage of the weaknesses of a dysfunctional Raiders team that may be desperate to win, but that has been out-of-sync on both sides of the ball and will be missing its best offensive weapon.

The Bills Offense vs The Oakland Defense: While the Bills offense only ranks 30th in the NFL and Kelly Holcomb has yet to throw for 200 yards since taking over the starting QB job from JP Losman, they have begun to hit their stride and perform the way they were expected to this season. With Holcomb completing 38 of 52 passes for 3 TDs, the Bills have gotten 45 first downs and five TDs in the last two games after producing only 3 TDs and 59 first downs in their first four games. Holcomb’s passing has helped the offense to stay on the field and, as a result, Willis McGahee has gotten 60 carries in those two games as opposed to 78 in the previous four, gaining 229 yards, 3.82 a carry, against two tough AFC East defenses.

With the Bills starting offensive line playing together for the first time since the middle of the Tampa Bay game, the Bills ran the ball 36 times against the Jets and passed it only 26 times. Those 36 carries netted 177 yards, an average of 4.5 per carry, as the Bills racked up a season-high 241 yards and 24 first downs. McGahee, the NFL’s fourth leading rusher with 604 rushing yards and at least one TD in his last four games, is the key to the Bills offense. The Bills are 3-1 this season when he carries the ball at least 22 times and are 9-1 over the last two seasons when he gains at least 100 yards. McGahee is a workhorse who seems to get better the more carries he gets and against an Oakland defense that ranks 24th in the NFL against the run, giving up an average of 117.4 yards a game, the Bills can be expected to ride that horse in an effort to keep the potentially explosive Raider offense on the sidelines and take the obnoxious Oakland crowd out of the game.

It isn’t hard to understand why Eric Moulds, having caught 14 passes for 122 yards and 2 TDs from Holcomb, was so outspoken in calling for Holcomb to take over at QB from JP Losman. But, while Moulds has been his favorite target, Holcomb has done a good job of spreading the ball around to his receivers, including his tight ends and jumbo blocker DT Sam Adams, and connected with Jonathan Smith for a TD against the Jets. Holcomb’s receiving corps is likely to be augmented this week by the debut of Roscoe Parrish who has been sidelined since training camp with a broken wrist. While Moulds has averaged 70 yards receiving in 4 previous games against the Raiders, Parrish’s speed and lightning quickness could present some good match-ups for the Bills against Oakland’s vulnerable pass defense.

While it should be noted that much of the criticism that has been heaped on the Bills’ much-maligned offensive line this season has been richly deserved, it should also be pointed out that, until last week against the Jets, the Bills’ starting offensive line had not played an entire game together since manhandling an under-manned Houston defensive front in the season opener. With Chris Villarial healthy again and Mike Williams back in the line-up, in spite of the pain from a still-healing ankle limiting his mobility, the Bills’ starting offensive line utterly dominated a pretty good Jets defense, with Williams giving up the only sack of the game early on to S.Ellis. While he did commit one costly penalty, LT Mike Gandy had an excellent game making some terrific blacks for Willis McGahee on the left side and holding DE John Abraham, who has been a real thorn in the Bills’ side over the years, without a sack.

The Bills’ offensive line, along with FB Daimon Shelton and the tight ends, will have to have a similarly strong performance this week against a much bigger Oakland front seven if the Bills are going to be able to run the ball as effectively as they need to in order to control the tempo of the game. DTs Warren Sapp and ex-Bill Ted Washington and DE Tommy Kelly all tip the scales at least 300 lbs. and DE Bobby Hamilton weighs in at 285 lbs. In addition, the Raiders’ starting outside linebackers, Tyler Brayton and ex-Bill Grant Irons, are both former defensive ends who weigh 280 and 285 respectively. Back-up OLB DeLawrence Grant, who may not play because of an ankle sprain also goes 280. With all of that size, it may be difficult for the Bills’ offensive line to move them off of the line of scrimmage consistently, so the Bills may have to use McGahee’s speed to the outside to go around them.

For all of that size, however, the Oakland defense has not been that effective thus far this season, ranking just 28th in total defense and 22nd against the run. MLB Danny Clark, who had a breakout season last year when the Raiders employed a 3-4 defensive alignment and is the smallest of the starting LBs at 245 lbs., has had some difficulty adjusting to the middle linebacker spot in the 4-3 and been somewhat of a disappointment to this point in the season. Rookie Kirk Morrison, who is listed as the third-string MLB on the Oakland depth chart and doesn’t start, is the team’s best and most consistent tackler, leading the team in total tackles with 44.

The weakness of the Oakland secondary is in the middle where strong safety Derrick Gibson, a first round pick in 2001, has been inconsistent to say the least and last year’s 3rd round pick free safety Stuart Schweigert is still learning the ropes. While both Gibson and Schweigert have played somewhat better at times this season, neither has played up to the level indicated by their lofty draft status. Oakland’s first pick in this year’s draft, CB Fabian Washington, who ran a combine fastest 4.29 40 yard dash, has been coming on in the last couple of weeks, but Washington, CB Denard Walker and, especially, rookie second round pick CB Stanford Routt have been victimized repeatedly this season in Oakland’s nickel- and dime- defenses.

While CB Charles Woodson, who has been slowed by injuries and inconsistency, isn’t really the top-flight shutdown cornerback that he promised to be when he first came into the league, nevertheless, he has become a dangerous playmaker, capable of making the big, game-changing play. Because of the weakness of the interior defense of the Raiders’ secondary and Woodson’s playmaking ability, he has been moved inside to play safety at times. Nnamdi Asomugha, Oakland’s first round pick in 2003, who has also played some at safety, mans the corner opposite Woodson.

For all of the talent and high draft picks in the Oakland secondary, the Raiders rank just 28th in the NFL in pass defense, yielding an average of 248.6 yards per game with just 2 interceptions and 9 sacks this season, although they are somewhat better playing at home where they are allowing just over 200 yards a game passing. Combined with the average of 117.4 yards that the are giving up rushing and the fact that they have only 4 total turnovers on the season, it is hardly surprising that the Raiders rank only 24th in scoring defense, giving up 23.2 points per game to this point in the season. Obviously, this is a defense that has been and can be exploited by offenses that do not make a lot of mistakes.

The Bills Defense vs The Oakland Offense: It is difficult to watch the Bills defense or think about their performance this season without wondering if the glass is half-empty or half-full. On the one hand, the Bills rank 1st in the NFL in pass defense and are giving up only 136.8 yards per game, 16.7 yards less a game than next best Jacksonville, with 9 interceptions and 14 sacks. On the other hand, the Bills are one of the three worst run defenses, currently ranked 30th and are giving up a whopping 158.5 yards per game on the ground, more than 41 yards a game more than 22nd ranked Oakland. On the other hand, the Bills defense has generated 15 turnovers, 5th most in the NFL, and are tied with Cincinnati with a +8 turnover margin. On the other hand, only two of those turnovers and two sacks have come in their two road games. Still, the Bills defense ranks 6th in the NFL in scoring defense, yielding just 16.4 points a game.

You just don’t know what you are going to get with the Bills defense. They can dominate a team for the entire first half and then let them drive the length of the field for a touchdown right before halftime. They can stop a team for two downs and then give up a big third down conversion. Someone can get caught out of position and give up a long run to the opposition and then come back and make a huge interception on the very next play. There appears to be no consistency other than in the defensive play-calling, where defensive coordinator Jerry Gray appears to be willing to give up the big play in order to have a chance to get the big turnover. Against Miami and the Jets, this strategy was successful, but the Bills will have to get a lot better at preventing the big play if they are going to be successful over the remainder of the season. Not counting the interference call against Clements in the end zone, the Bills gave up a half a dozen big plays to the Jets. That is way too many to give up to teams with more and better speed than the Jets, let alone when they are playing on the road. The Bills must be better in this area against Oakland in order to keep the Oakland crowd out of the game.

Given all of the injuries that he has, Randy Moss will probably not play against the Bills this week. While Randy Moss is a warrior who tried to play hurt last season when he was with Minnesota and will probably try to play this week if he possibly can, Moss tried to return to the game against the Chargers twice last weekend but was forced to the sidelines after one play on both occasions. To keep him from further aggravating his injuries and missing more time later in the season, as he did when he tried to play for Minnesota last season when he was hurt, Oakland Coach Norv Turner will probably opt not to allow Moss to play. If Moss does play, however, it is likely that he will be limited in how much he will play and what he will be able to do. Either way, the Bills will be glad not to be facing a healthy Randy Moss, who has had over 100 yards receiving and a TD catch in each of two previous games against the Bills.

With Moss out of the lineup, the Oakland attack is likely to be very different and a lot more unpredictable than it has been thus far this season. The Raiders, who rank 13th in total offense and 5th in passing in the NFL, have been averaging 37.4 pass attempts and only 21 carries a game as a team. Lamont Jordan, who was acquired to give the Raiders a workhorse RB that they could rely on has had more than 18 carries in only one game thus far this season. Not coincidentally, that was the Raiders’ sole victory.

While the Raiders are averaging 264 yards a game through the air, they are only averaging 70.6 on the ground and have scored an average of 18 points a game, two points less than at this point last season, through five games. With Lamont Jordan begging Coach Turner to let him run the ball more often and the Bills coming into the game having allowed three RBs to go over 100 yards and two others 97 yards rushing in their last 5 games, it would be shocking if the Raiders, with Moss injured, did not try to run the ball a lot more often against the Bills than they have in most of their games this season. With center Jake Grove still recovering from knee surgery following their Oct. 2 loss to Dallas, the question is whether they will be able to run the ball as well against Buffalo as the Bills’ recent opponents have.

If the Raiders do not try to run the ball on the Bills or are unable to do so consistently, QB Kerry Collins could be in for a long day against the aggressive Bills defense. Even with Ronald Curry on injured reserve and Moss likely to miss the game, Oakland still has some fine, very fast receivers in Jerry Porter, Doug Gabriel and Alvis Whitted and athletic TE Courtney Anderson. However, the Oakland offensive line has struggled in pass protection this season and Collins is not the most mobile of quarterbacks. If the Raiders are not able to run the ball effectively or sustain drives against the Bills, the opportunistic Bills defense will be able to blitz Collins with impunity in an effort to harass him into turning the ball over the way he has been prone to do in the past. Given the success that the Bills have had against QBs with similarly limited mobility in the last two weeks, it would be surprising if Bills DC Jerry Gray did not loose the hounds on Collins the way he did against Gus Ferrotte and Vinny Testaverde.

The key will be whether Jordan, who ran well against the Bills when he was backing up Curtis Martin with the Jets, will be able to run the ball effectively and Collins will be able to get the ball out to his receivers fast enough to make the Bills pay for blitzing. If the Bills can stop or at least contain Jordan and prevent the Oakland receivers from making big plays, they could stifle this Oakland offense, which has not really been in sync all season.

The Bills Special Teams vs The Oakland Special Teams: Quite simply put, the Bills’ Terrance McGee is the best kickoff return man in the NFL and it isn’t even close. McGee’s 34.9 yard average on kick returns is 5.2 yards better than that of his closest competitor. He is a real weapon for the Bills, setting up a touchdown on the Bills’ opening drive of the game against the Jets with a big return and, then, turning the momentum back to the Bills, after the Jets had closed to within 14-10, with another big return that set up Rian Lindell’s 50 yard FG at the end of the first half. Thanks to McGee, the Bills lead the NFL in kickoff returns and rank first in the AFC in average drive start.

Rian Lindell is finally having the kind of season that is demonstrating why the Bills have stuck with him after signing him away from Seattle as a free agent. Lindell has hit 13 of his 14 FG attempts this season, including his last 2 from over 45 yards and his first from 50 yards as a Bill. In addition, Lindell is averaging 65.4 yards on his kickoffs, good for 9th in the NFL. With the improvement in Lindell’s kickoffs, Bills kickoff teams are allowing a scant 19.3 yards on returns, tied for 4th in the NFL.

Brian Moorman is back up amongst the league leaders in punting, averaging 46.3 yards per punt, good for 5th overall, but the Bills only rank 17th in the league in net yards per punt. While none of the Bills punt returners ranks in the top 25 in the league, the Bills are 16th in punt returns, averaging 7.3 yards per return.

Oakland’s special teams are led by punter Shane Lechler who is averaging 46.1 yards per punt, good for 6th in the NFL right behind Brian Moorman. Oakland’s punt coverage team leads the league in net yards per punt, but their kickoff coverage team is not very good, yielding an average of 28.9 yards per return which ranks 31st in the NFL. Chris Carr is the primary punt and kickoff return man for the Raiders. Carr is averaging 6.4 yards on punt returns, good for 20th in the NFL, and 22.3 yards on kickoff returns.

If someone had suggested prior to the season that Buffalo’s Lindell would be having a better season at this stage than Oakland place kicker Sebastian Janikowski, he probably would have been laughed at by most NFL fans. Yet, that is precisely what has happened as Janikowski struggled with his accuracy early in the season. While Janikowski has improved his performance in the last couple of weeks, he has made just 7 of his 11 FG attempts this season, missing one under 40 yards, half of his 4 attempts between 40 and 49 yards, and his only attempt from 50+. He is also averaging nearly a full yard less on kickoffs than Lindell.

Both Lechler and Moorman are great punters and Carr can be a dangerous return man. But, McGee gives the Bills a tremendous advantage in kickoff returns if Oakland takes the risk of kicking the ball to him. Special teams play and the threat that McGee poses could play a significant role in the outcome of this game.

Things To Watch For:

1: Will the Bills come out of the locker room confident, fired up and ready to play like they have at home in their last two games, or will they be intimidated by the hostile Oakland crowd and come out flat and play tentatively? Can Coach Mularkey get his team to play well on the road again? Will the Bills be able to jump out to an early lead in the game as they have in most of their games this season?
2: Can the Bills’ offensive line handle the big Oakland defensive front seven well enough to open some good holes for Willis McGahee and keep Kelly Holcomb from being pressured when he drops back to pass?
3: Will the Bills defense be able to stuff Lamont Jordan and the Oakland running game and prevent the Raiders from breaking any big plays? Can the Bills defense avoid breakdowns and mental mistakes and contain the explosiveness of the Oakland offense?
4: Can the Bills defense put pressure on Kerry Collins and force Oakland to turn the ball over? Will the Bills defense be able to keep Collins and the Raider offense from sustaining drives and turn the ball over to the Bills offense in good field position?
5: Will Willis McGahee and the Bills offense be able to run the ball effectively enough to control the ball and the tempo of the game and take the Oakland crowd out of the game? Can Kelly Holcomb avoid turning the ball over and continue to spread the ball around to his receivers to keep the chains moving when he is called on to pass. Will the Bills offense be able to break a big run or complete a deep pass against the extremely swift Oakland secondary?
6: Can the Bills defense prevent Oakland from scoring any points right before halftime? Will the Bills defense be able to keep the Raiders’ offense from getting Oakland back in the game if the Bills take a lead? Can the Bills defense stop Oakland from mounting any long drives?
7: Will the Bills be able to minimize the number of penalties that they commit? Can the Bills avoid committing any stupid, silly or drive-killing penalties?
8: Can the Bills’ coaching staff continue to improve their play-calling? Will the Bills’ offensive coordinator, Tom Clements, and Coach Mike Mularkey avoid the temptation to out-smart the Raiders and stick with what is working if the Bills are successful in moving the ball with a certain set of plays? Can DC Jerry Gray continue to be judicious in his use of the Bills’ blitz packages and successfully confuse Kerry Collins with his defensive play-calls? Will the Bills’ coaches be able to make better in-game and halftime adjustments than the Raiders?
9: Will Oakland try to avoid kicking the ball to Terrance McGee? If they do kick to McGee, will he be able to break a big return for the Bills? Who will win the field position battle?
10: Can Rian Lindell and Brian Moorman continue to kick as well as they have this season? Will Lindell be able to hit on another big field goal attempt if called on to do so?

Opportunities present themselves in sports in a variety of different ways and situations. Teams and individuals that are successful, winners and serious contenders, are the ones that take advantage of the opportunities that present themselves and make the most of them. The teams and individuals that are not successful, the mediocre, the pretenders, the losers, are the ones who let those opportunities pass them by or slip through their fingers.

After allowing themselves to fall into a hole of their own making by losing three winnable games in a row after cruising to victory in their season opener, the Bills showed that they have the potential to be a winning team this season by improving their performance enough over the next two games to take advantage of the opportunity afforded them to turn their season around and get themselves back into the race for the AFC East division title and a playoff berth. Now, as they head out to Oakland to face a Raider team that has not played well this season and will be missing its biggest offensive weapon, the Bills find themselves presented with yet another important opportunity.

It is often said that the hardest thing for a team to do is “get the goose-egg off of the scoreboard”. That’s why almost every coach would rather kick a field goal on 4th and inches on the goal-line early in a game rather than go for the touchdown. By taking advantage of an Oakland team that is still in disarray the Bills have the opportunity to notch their first road win of the season and, in doing so, get that “goose-egg” off of their ledger.

The Bills play 6 of their remaining 10 games on the road. In order for them to be a winning team and contend for a playoff berth, they must win some of those games. Even though the Raiders are struggling, if the Bills can beat them, they will be able to approach their final road games knowing that they went into Oakland, a tough place to play, and came out with a victory. They will go into their road games knowing that they can win on the road rather than doubting themselves.

That will serve them in particularly good stead because a victory in Oakland will set them up for a showdown with the Patriots for the lead in the AFC East in Foxboro the following Sunday night. With a victory against Oakland, the Bills can enter that critical division contest knowing that they have a chance to win on the road and that, even if they were to lose to a Pats team with the advantage of coming off of its bye, they would still be in the hunt.