| April 15, 2007 | « Previous Story | HOME | Next Story » | Posted at 06:01 PM |
With the NFL schedule having been released yesterday, NFL fans now have a positive distraction until the annually awaited third most popular day on the NFL calendar behind the Super Bowl and opening day, namely draft day. So what has the schedule brought for the Bills in this way?
At first glance it seems as if the schedule is worse than last season’s schedule. Taking a closer look however that really is not the case. Last season the Bills ended up playing 8 games vs. playoff teams. This season they also face 8 of last season’s playoff teams. Of those 8 playoff teams last season, 5 remain the same, namely the Pats twice, the Jets twice, and Baltimore. Granted, that’s a formidable lineup, however they represent five of the same games that the Bills played last season reflecting no difference in that regard excepting changes in the teams from last season to this one.
In addition, last season the Bills also added the two Super Bowl participants to their schedule along with San Diego whom many regarded as the league’s strongest team overall. This season those are replaced with the three NFC East teams that made the playoffs. None of those teams was exceptional last season with all three having taken hits in the offseason. In fact it is difficult to imagine either the Cowboys or the Giants making the playoffs again. The relatively weak NFC perhaps increases those chances however. The Eagles, while good, are far from great.
The Bills last season played eight games vs. teams with final non-winning records and five teams with losing records. This season, they have on their schedule eight games vs. teams with final non-winning records last year and four teams with losing records. So little has changed in this way using last season’s standings as the baseline. As well, it is against such competition that the Bills logged six of their seven wins having defeated a team finishing with a winning record only once, namely the Jets.
Predicated on that, there is little difference in schedules or any less reason why, all things being equal, that the team should post any fewer wins than last season. Additionally, it seems that all three NFC East playoff teams will hit the field in the fall not as good as they were last season. The AFC North in the Bills schedule this season appears to be very comparable to the AFC South on it last season, and the odd teams out are also easier with Jacksonville and Denver replacing San Diego and Baltimore although Baltimore stays on the schedule by virtue of being in the AFCN. Indianapolis, the Super Bowl winners, drops off however.
So what are Bills fans to think?
My first thought was that the season may be over for the Bills by the time that the fist eight games are wrapped up. Their last 8 games are where all of the easier games lie; yet five of those 8 are on the road. Yet again, it was only against such competition that the Bills could post wins. Factor in some injuries on an already talent challenged team, and the Bills may be in deep kimchi.
Opening up vs. Denver is not a favorable matchup for the Bills and a Travis Henry with an attitude in the Broncos system is a recipe for disaster for a defense that cannot stop the run. The Bills then have a pair of road games vs. two teams better than they are in Pittsburgh and New England. They then return home to face the Jets, who appear to have improved even if only marginally and are also better, then followed by the Cowboys who will have their own issues likely resulting in a regression of sorts. The Cowboys game is a Monday Nighter whether that national exposure will be good for the Bills or not.
The Bills then have a very untimely and ill placed bye week in week six. Following that the host the Ravens, travel to NY to face the Jets, and host Cincy. By that point, midseason, the Bills may very well be 2-6 or worse. So while the second half offers hope, the Bills may be all but out of anything significant by then.
As mentioned, the second half of the schedule features only one tough team at present and that team is the Pats whom the Bills simply cannot beat having lost 11 of the last 12 and the last 7 straight.
So why was it then that when I glanced at the schedule my first thought was, “Yikes, what a horrendous schedule?” Because quite frankly, if the Bills were a legitimate 10-6 team, then every game but the pair vs. New England and perhaps the game against Baltimore I would have considered winnable. Yet, my thoughts are that the only “gimme” games are the pair vs. Miami coupled with the two games vs. Cleveland and Washington.
Yet, all of those games are among the last eight games and three of the four are among the last five when the Bills’ season may very well already be long over. Also, three of those four games are on the road making them anything but “gimme” games for a losing team having only gotten worse. So in essence, when one thinks about it objectively for a moment, a good chunk of the reason why the schedule seems so bad is because the team is really not all that good.
This schedule, if the team were that of the early and mid-90s, would not be all that daunting quite frankly. Otherwise, as I see it, the only teams on this season’s schedule that truly appear to be playoff caliber teams are divisional rivals the Pats and Jets along with the Ravens and perhaps the Eagles, but that’s about it.
So before Bills fans shed another tear or raise another fist, this schedule is really not as bad as it seems. In the end, using this upcoming season’s final records, my prediction is that in the end analysis it will have proven to have been easier than last season’s schedule mathematically and regarding the number of playoff teams on it.
The Bills problem is that they are not as good a team as they were last season, again, pending the draft, which in every likelihood will not alter that. Last season they achieved their best-case scenario at the hands of the weak and feeble, just as has been the case for years. In other words, even last season they were not a good fundamental team at all which has been fully documented by the Wysman ad nauseam.
This season the schedule is comparable, the team is worse, and I’ll let readers do the math there.
Mark Weiler writes for www.AFCEastReport.com.