| January 02, 2008 | « Previous Story | HOME | Next Story » | Posted at 09:24 AM |
The Bills end another disappointing season, yet a predictable one for the objective and honest. In fact, everything statistical suggests fully that the Bills overachieved in spades in terms of their won-lost record. The Bills’ special teams wasn’t nearly as special as it has been in recent past seasons and the three impact players that the Bills had on offense and defense last year simply made little impact this year.
Sure, Jason Peters "made the Pro Bowl," but as we all know accolades there often lag by a season which was clearly the case as he was better last season than this one. He may have earned it last season, but he surely did not this season as the offense both his way as well as on the whole regressed substantially. How many linemen from the worst offense in the league typically make the Pro Bowl? Don't think it was the worst? Keep reading as neither did I until I did the research for this piece although I did realize that it was among the bottom few. Suffice it to say for the moment that the Bills had fewer offensive TDs and red zone TDs than any other team in the league, ... any other!
Lee Evans all but fell off the map as a consequential player much less an impact one and Aaron Schobel following a dubious loss of 25 lbs. down to a playing weight of around 240 lbs. also performed to extremely average standards, again, entirely predictably. While Peters and Evans are still young, not so for the now seemingly grossly overpaid Schobel.
Of course talking about "overpaid," the highly paid acquisitions of Dockery and Langston Walker yielded no net gain from last season in terms of overall offensive performance. How could that possibly be? Sure, how well they played can be debated, but the bottom line is that with them as the primary change to last season’s line, the offense played even worse than it did last year starting with the same QB and a RB all but unanimously agreed upon to be better than McGahee. So fine, it’s not the line’s fault, but then whose fault is it that the offense could not outperform last season’s miserable offense and in fact underperformed it substantially?
Fans and media simply cannot keep shouting out that the team is headed in the right direction amidst a sea, yea an ocean, of regression leaving the sane left to only scratch their heads at the inanity.
Performance:
The Bills offense, where all the positive resources went to correcting, regressed very substantially from ’06 to ’07, particularly given that there really was not much room for downward movement, certainly none reasonably! Yet, the battle cry is that this team has improved and is "moving in the right direction. It is no wonder that the regional media and some of the message board community are so utterly confused as Bills fans these days.
In fundamental indicators the Bills, in spite of posting a turnover ratio of +14 better than that of last season, ranked no different from last season generally speaking in terms of general offensive performance. They ranked worse.
Of the following fundamental football indicators, plays-from-scrimmage, yards-per-game, yards-per-play, 1st-downs-per-game, 3rd-down-percentage, and time-of-possession, when the rankings for each are taken as an average league wide, the Bills finish a solid 31st ahead of only the San Francisco 49ers. Again, in spite of a turnover ratio averaging nearly +1/game better than last year on the season. In fact, the Bills ranked 6th in TO ratio with the first seven spots in the rankings otherwise being occupied by serious playoff teams.
The Bills scored more touchdowns than only the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers by one each. Yet of the Bills 25 TDs, 5 were defensive/special teams contrasted with only one each for both the Chiefs and 49ers. Otherwise the Bills offense scored fewer TDs than any other offense in the entire league trailing the Jets (21) by one, and both the Chiefs and Niners (23 each) by three.
How this can even remotely be considered improvement is silly at best.
In the red zone the Bills got worse there as well in spite of ditching the long-ball oriented JP Losman in favor of the three and five-step drop project and Levy’s highly acclaimed "future QB sensation" Trent Edwards who posted abysmal performance lines statistically speaking in spite of a won-lost record based just about entirely on defense and special teams play amidst a blatant lack of offensive contribution by the O with him under center.
Last season the Bills had 35 red zone possessions to 34 this season. Last season a paltry 15 were converted to TDs while this season, unbelievably, things got worse as the team only converted 13. The Bills had fewer red zone possessions (34) than any other team in the league besides the 49ers (29), and yet fewer red zone TDs than any other team in the league (13) including the 49ers. Again, this is "the right direction" how precisely? Does anyone really want any more "upgrades" to this offense by this thing they call a coaching and front office staff at One Bills Drive?
As well, while the Bills last season put up 300 points while allowing 311, this season they put up only 252 while allowing 354, a detriment of over 100 points, worse than any other team in the 7-9 to 9-7 (.500 +/- a game) category. Only seven teams were worse than the Bills in this way; the Ravens, Niners, Raiders, Chiefs, Falcons, Rams, and Dolphins. Good company? It’s laughable.
And to nip it in the bud, having played the Patriots may have contributed to that detriment, but the delta between this season and last was only responsible for 53 of that 102 points for an unexplained delta still of 49 points. And what about the offense? This had little to do with the offense that scored 48 points less than last season. The Patriots, while precedent/record setting on offense, were no better on defense than in past recent seasons, perhaps not even that good.
For anyone being honest, the performance of the offense is inexcusable given the upgrades and in fact no matter how it is sliced this season, the net changes were "upgrades" both in terms of fiscal data as well as in terms of "paper value."
Meanwhile, as a side note, all those suggesting that the team is now headed in the right direction seem to have failed to miss the fact that this is Jauron’s 7th season in only 8 fully coached in which his teams have posted a losing season. Yet, already the excuses are flowing as to why it wasn’t his fault, again, in Chicago.
After two seasons now under Jauron, the team has beaten only 2 teams with final winning records, only one team with 10 or more (10) wins, a soft Jets team last season, and is backpedaling as fast as it can now. Last season the Bills beat two 8-8 teams that are in the playoffs this season as top contenders (Green Bay and Jacksonville) and the 10-6 Jets.
This season the Bills have beaten no 8-8 teams and only one winning team in the 9-7 Redskins and that game was played by the Skins immediately following the very unexpected and sudden death of teammate Sean Taylor under bizarre circumstances in an off-field incident and even then they barely won the game with assistance from the Hall-of-Fame coach Gibbs handing the Bills 15-yards on an inexcusable penalty reducing the field goal attempt from 51 to 36 yards with no timeouts remaining.
Injuries:
The fans and media are already blowing the horn of the extensive list of nobodies on the injured reserve this season as the sole reason for the lack of a winning record. But the truth be told there wasn’t a ringer among them. While reading the below laundry list of players ask yourself which of these would even have been considered a factor in determining the success of the team prior to the start of this season.
What, who is going to attempt to sell anyone that most of the players that were on IR for most or all of the season are not merely fortunate to have jobs in the NFL?
Who even heard of practice squad puppy Copeland Bryan prior to this season?
Ditto for Kevin Harrison. Did you know who he was in August?
Bubble player league kickabout Matt Murphy? Losing him had an impact perhaps?
What about Peerless Price, overpaid past-prime henceforth either retiree or journeyman 4/5 WR? He did nothing worth mentioning last season a year younger. He will not be with the team next season.
Or was it rookie role player and 7th-round draftee Derek Schouman?
Intentionally made expendable by the Ivy-League-Dynamic-Duo and near past prime Anthony Thomas then?
What about career backup and injury prone Kiwaukee Thomas?
Ahhh, but it’s gotta be Al Wallace, the 33-year old DE who has not even averaged one start per season during his illustrious career in the NFL. Yeah, that’s it. Anyone ever even heard of the geriatric veteran prior to right now while reading this?
How about Jason Webster, undersized, injury prone, bubble type starter/backup who is inadequate in a starting role? Was it his absence that hindered the team from finishing 11-5 and among the top-10 in defense?
Or how about career past-prime backup guard Jason Whittle who has contributed exactly zilch since he has been here now for two seasons?
Depth and role player Coy Wire? Perhaps on special teams, but nowhere else where the team’s biggest problems and regressions existed.
How about ’04 undrafted free agent (Lions) and practice squad/backup player for three years in Buffalo George Wilson? He wasn’t good enough to start for the Bills from ’04 to ’06 when the Bills lacked good safety play to the extent that they had to draft two, now three, but now we as fans are supposed to bite on the notion that he was the missing link to a successful season? Right! Wilson missed fewer than half the games. How many fans thought that Wilson was much prior to when it became expedient in defending the indefensible?
Ahhh, but pure depth player Aaron Merz, there’s the missing entity to the Bills’ championship season with barely any OL injuries at all and none significant until very late in the season upon Peters’ injury where Kirk Chambers, yet another "who’s he" player was Peters’ primary backup there.
So looking at the above list of injuries, who on earth is going to decry that this hurt the Bills much at all? Most of that list’s equal can be found in any given week on the waiver wire.
But wait Weiler, you’re not counting all the IR players. Correct. We left out the following:
30-year old failed trade-up draftee Ryan Denney who is purely role player and backup and has been during his tenure with the Bills. There was not even one injury to the Bills’ starting Defensive Line this season. So this impacted things precisely how now other than that to start for this team is meaningless in its 8-man defensive line rotation methodology that yields less than average results otherwise?
Kevin Everett, who in spite of his most serious injury was backup material otherwise, nothing at all more.
That leaves Paul Posluszny and Ko Simpson. Simpson was disappointing last season and nowhere near on track to become an impact player his second season pending notwithstanding. Poz was mystery meat and still is to an extent. He did not indicate that he was head and shoulders on pace to become better than what Fletcher was by season’s end either. In fact, he had Fletcher’s weakness as well, namely pass coverage. Regardless, we can concede in spite of the lack of evidence, that both Simpson and Poz were key to the functioning of the D to a much higher level. That in no way impacts what the pathetic offense did. It would be a reach to assume that the defense would have equaled much more than last season’s even with Poz and Simpson in there and that D was also wholly inadequate and well below average.
Who honestly looks at the above litany of players and starts decrying "foul" over injuries as being even remotely relevant for this team? As stated prior to the season, if Peters, Schobel, Evans, or perhaps Lynch as non-special teams players went out for most of the season, then fine, there's a legitimate gripe. Fans had a brief glimpse as to what the O was like without Peters for a couple games, even more pathetic than with him. But this? Hardly.
No matter how one slices it, it becomes pure satire for anyone to suggest that the loss of the above litany of players was anything more than an inconvenience for the personnel department in terms of having to peruse the waiver wire looking for comparable replacements, some of which played better than those whom they replaced, for the accounting department in terms of having to process more "employee" files! That’s where the lion’s share of that detriment stops however.
At what point does the media crying over such injuries become laughable and absurd to outsiders? The BS flag is being officially and formally raised on this right here. …
Scratch that, as it has been flying high over One Bills Drive now for quite a few seasons with no one emerging from the building to lower it. Perhaps Levy is more astute than previously given credit for getting while the getting is good, or at least better than it will be following next or future seasons.
Schedule:
At the beginning of the season the Bills’ schedule seemed daunting no matter how it was sliced. Yet at season’s end, according to the draft order charts, the Bills’ schedule post facto ranks dead center average. When one considers that two of the games of the 16 were against the record setting Patriots, a team that the Bills have lost to for nearly a decade like the leaves fall off the trees in autumn, and thereby artificially raising the difficulty quotient by a significant amount, the schedule in hindsight was not daunting at all and well below average otherwise in terms of difficulty. Anticipated playoff teams such as the Jets, Ravens, Broncos, Bengals, and the Eagles for six games turned out to be among the worst teams in the league.
The average record of teams beaten by the Bills is 4-12. The aggregate game-wins record of teams beaten is 31-81. The Bills beat one winning team on the season and that was the downtrodden Redskins under mitigating circumstances only days following a team tragedy that clearly impacted the disposition of the team to a man.
The only other close games were Denver and Dallas both of which the Bills lost by a single point in spite of both of those teams dominating the Bills in the fundamentals of ball movement otherwise and on both sides of the ball.
Meanwhile, in 5 of the Bills’ 7 wins, the game went practically right down to the wire as it were. Any one of 5 wins vs. the Redskins, Ravens, Bengals, Dolphins, and Jets could have easily gone for a loss.
The Bills season-ending 7-9 record speaks even less than last year’s and is awash in smoke-and-mirrors/house-of-cards illusions much like ’04 was when the media was saying the same exact things about the future prospects for the team prior to the predictable implosion. Alas, it is absolutely no different now. Not one iota except for perhaps the team has even less to build on in spite of absurd notions that a slate full of mediocre players might all become impact players. Sure, and the winning lottery ticket may be in my mailbox right now as well.
Sellouts:
It is a nice feel good story the so-called sellouts that the Bills have been generating. But do any other Bills fans join me in expressing my disgust that approximately half of these come at the hands of selling large quantities of tickets to opposing fans each season? What does it say when on TV or live, the opposing fans make the game in Buffalo seem like a road game at times?
Then buy some tickets Weiler! Sure, as soon as the organization, starting with Wilson, begins making some moves to prove to the fans of the team and consumers of his business that he is serious about putting out a product worth separating my time and money from me over.
Hint: Hiring from within for the franchise’s next GM is not that first step towards either patching things up with fans by proving that Wilson actually cares about winning, or the next step in "the right direction." Naturally the move if made will be haled by most regional media as some visionary type of development when nothing could possibly be further from the truth. In fact, any GM hire that leaves Jauron, McNally, most of Jauron's staff, Modrak and Guy in place is not a good hire. The team first needs to shed the core reasons for its losing methodologies in order to improve. Any worthwhile GM hire is already going to have in his mind to make the firing of Jauron the absolute first priority. Alas, expect Wilson to hire a GM to protect whom he views as a good coach.
Regardless, Ralph Wilson Stadium is fast becoming a stadium where fans of other teams can go to Niagara Falls for the weekend and see their own team play in a home-away-from-home of sorts. But hey, the games are selling out, right.
Good? For Wilson and his wallet/estate perhaps, but not for the fans and consumers of the team.
Stadium:
The heated seats in the club level are nice. But when you sit there thinking that except for them you’d be miserable, well, let’s just say that something’s missing from the days of attendance in utterly horrid weather in the upper decks back in the early ‘90s, with smiles, enthusiasm, and high-fiving frequently, during the team’s playoff era.
The new raved about ribbon scoreboard sounded nice. In fact it did provide a warming "feel" in the cold with some "colors" moving/dancing about. Otherwise it serves primarily as yet another advertising medium in a stadium flooded with them. It provided virtually no useful information that was not readily available elsewhere and already in the stadium. File under "big deal" or "cha-ching" as it relates to Wilson’s bottom line, but it does little for fans other than to make them think that they now have a modern stadium perhaps and for fans in Buffalo that "don’t get out much."
Summary:
The Bills are no closer to doing anything positive now than they were under Mularkey and in fact may even be further away if the statistical data is to be trusted. A paper thin won-lost record predicated on squeaking out wins vs. teams even more hapless than these Bills is no basis for future optimism. Supposed upgrades on this team yielded only regression. How can this possibly be? Who is at fault? It cannot be no one. The answer is clear, but for purposes of the skeptical and homer-istic, the question is asked as such.
Either way, to suggest that such is "the right direction" is to insinuate that the one doing the suggesting has absolutely no idea what the "right direction" actually is. There simply is not any other way to slice that. But hey, that’s what it’s all about in Buffalo apparently, "the right direction," "next season," empty promises of future success by people only having floundered in failures yet for some inexplicable miraculous reason anticipated 180-degree opposite results in Buffalo predicated on promises by Wilson and the team that have yet to even come remotely close to being fulfilled.
It all starts in the trenches, a philosophy not shared by the Ivy League Dynamic Duo. Yet, the trenches were fine for the most part this season. There were few injuries and absolutely no significant ones until Peters very late in the season and well after proven offensive ineffectiveness regardless with Peters in there. So given that, given that it all starts in the trenches, with absolutely no injuries to DL starters, and few and even fewer significant ones for the OL, and amidst an offseason whereby the single biggest upgrades were in fact on the OL, how does one explain any possible future optimism with that as a basis?
This team is not headed in the right direction! It is once again headed in the wrong direction! People with common sense and a sense of self-esteem regarding their intellectual capacities coupled with fundamental knowledge of football, fully realize that.
The latest and most recent news regarding the Bills hiring from within, presumably so that Wilson’s pet Dick Jauron does not get appropriately fired, merely reinforces the comedic component to this soap opera which has perpetuated itself now for pushing a decade. Here’s a much better idea, put the name of everyone that has been in the organization for at least x number of years into a hat and then have "the janitor" pull a name from the hat to reveal the team’s next GM. Hopefully it will be "the janitor." Sadly, those are probably the Bills’ best odds for "success" prior to the sale of the team at Wilson’s passing.
The Bills heading into next season have no major free agents. Good news? I suppose. But there will be a draft, and with all the roster spots already filled for the most part as a result, do not expect this cheap team to make major moves in the free agency market. If they do, then expect more moves of the kind already made by overpaying anyone significant in the mode of Royal, Price, Tripplett, Dockery, or L. Walker. This thereby relegates any would-be improvements for next season to the draft, something that this team has done oh, just so much with during the Modrak/Guy/Majeski era. (Sarcasm intended)
And pray tell, which of those highly acclaimed players on that lengthy IR will "all of a sudden" become expendable now following the draft or any free agent acquisitions? If the players on that injury list were such a blow, which will still be with the team next season in pivotal roles with the team.
This team is unentertaining, not serious about winning, has no idea what it is doing at the most fundamental levels, and is simply not worth much of an emotional investment until further notice. But hey, that’s just the take of the Wysman. Those into novels and fairy tales coupled with unhappy endings may enjoy this "thank you sir may I have another" approach to football fandom. As for me, this was the season that I finally waved the white flag and gave into Wilson’s noted lack of concern for winning and solid performance of his own team, again, a product in the entertainment industry yet one that fails to entertain on so many levels when to be even remotely entertaining is not at all a difficult task.
So I was and will continue to follow Wilson’s lead yet from the other end of the equation. The power rests with either himself or a consignee via proxy to correct that from his side of the equation by putting forth a product actually worth viewing much less following regularly throughout the season with any ardor. Alas however, he has already stated that at this point in his life he is in no mood to do that nor will.
So it is time to move on. To what? Will the Bills remain in Buffalo against all odds? Toronto and Los Angeles have the team’s name on it insofar as the Wysman can see. Either way, the region is no longer capable of supporting a pro football franchise whose owner must not only recoup a reasonable rate-of-return, but also the interest on his investment. A new stadium will likely be the primary issue that pushes this team out of town.
But I digress. It is crystal clear that during Wilson’s term of ownership to hope for more than performance by this team ranging from pathetic to perhaps mediocre in seasons with favorable schedules is unwise. Most fans realize that now and are going through the various stages of grieving against a backdrop of near future uncertainty for this franchise. Most are past denial, anger, and bargaining while presently resting somewhere between depression and acceptance. Unfortunately for Wilson, or the Buffalo/WNY economy, that’s not exactly a winning ticket in hopes of keeping this team in the region "post Wilson." Future ticket sales efforts had better involve strong marketing to fans of Bills’ opponents annually. Perhaps it already has been given the amount of tickets so coincidentally falling into the hands of opposing fans mitigating the effect of homefield advantage for the Bills.
Regardless, fans can only be spoon fed a load of crap for so long. Unfortunately for the franchise, that time has come for a good many. It is certainly here for this fan. If the memories of four failed Super Bowl attempts coupled with having been at every playoff game and countless regular season games since the onset of the Polian era at least and having arranged for large caravans to go from D.C. to Buffalo for Bills games are all that are left, then great. For those are excellent memories to have.
However, just like most fans of a ‘70s or ‘80s era rock band have no desire to see their teen idol hit the stage at 60 years old and at 5’8"/250 lbs. with a voice that would shock a banshee and a band that looks as if it might crack a hip bone if not careful while merely walking around the stage, neither is there much interest in seeing this sad, sad, sad excuse of Wilson’s feel-good comfort inducing hobby masquerading as a football team anymore.
If Wilson truly cared about the fans of his team, then he would sell the Bills immediately. He is apparently deluded by notions that all fans care about is a team in the region regardless of how serious its owner and trustees are about making it even remotely fun to watch and/or competitive.
If anything, the fans that are still following the team need to be put out of their misery one way or another instead of being strung out on false hopes via an indefinite tenure of fan drudgery with the same unknowns yet following more seasons of the reprehensible slop-fest that the Buffalo Bills have become due entirely to willful neglect.
mweiler@afceastreport.com
