| March 04, 2008 | « Previous Story | HOME | Next Story » | Posted at 11:22 PM |
The more I think about it, the more I believe the Bills have finished their moves in Free Agency. I could see the signing of a lesser name here or there, but I think they may only sign one more starter, and then be done. What is the impact of that move? Well, I'm not convinced it's huge. However, there are many facets to this question. How many more starters do the Buffalo Bills need? How many players must come from free agency? How many must come from the draft?
How many more starters do they need? I could argue that the Bills only need two more. I feel they need a number two wide receiver, and a starting tight end.
The Bills let Peerless go, and neither Josh Reed nor Roscoe Parrish is the answer as the number two wide receiver. Josh Reed had his chance a few years back to be the number two wide receiver, and didn't do anything worthy of note. Josh has been a Bill since 2002, when he was drafted in the second round. He has had more than ample time to develop, and hasn't earned the second wide receiver position. Roscoe Parrish, on the other hand, may have big play ability, but he doesn't have the size that the Bills are currently looking for. He's a playmaker, a roll-type wide receiver best suited for the slot position. So, the bills now have a gaping hole at the number two wide receiver position. It is a starting position, and the team is devoid of a player who can fill it from within.
Buffalo has Robert Royal, who has made a few plays here and there, but is not considered a solid blocking tight end. It's widely thought that tight ends can be grouped into either blockers or receiving threats. Rarely does one do both well. Royal was brought in to be a receiving threat, but just has not turned out to be much of one for the Bills so far. To make matter worse, the Bills lost a young prospect in Kevin Everrett, with a career ending injury to the spine. The Bills do have other players, such as Tim Massaquoi, Derek Schouman, and the recently aquired Teyo Johnson. Both Schouman and Massaquoi are backup type players, who have a huge uphill battle to crack a starting role. Teyo Johnson is a journeyman player who just hasn't caught on anywhere, and also has hurdles to overcome to become a starter. The Bills are in need of a receiving threat at the tight end position, as well as a solid number two. Similarly to Keith Ellison, who was recently demoted as a starting linebacker to Kawika Mitchell, Robert Royal hasn't met our needs, and may be replaced with a new player. Unlike the linebacker situation, the Bills may sometimes use a two tight end set which requires two tight ends with starter ability. I think the path is clear, and that path points to an upgrade at the tight end position.
In my opinion, those two positions are the only positions where they clearly need a new starter. Some may argue that Buffalo needs a new center, or possibly cornerback. Some may also argue the team needs even more defensive line additions. However, the cornerback position has a recent player on the rise in Jabari Greer, who was able to go head to head against players like Randy Moss and Terrell Owens, and fare pretty well. Buffalo has no reason to believe that his progress won't continue. On the other side, Terrence McGee has been a starter and at has at least been solid. I think the Bills feel these players are solid enough to continue to start. If we could land a player who is an upgrade, they could always try to do that, but that this is not considered a position where we need a bonafide starter.
At center, Melvin Fowler has manned the position since coming here in 2006, and has started in every game. The Bills have been active in the past year, signing many players on the offensive line to improve the overall play. The rookie quarterback for the Bills, Trent Edwards, managed to have a very low sack total behind this line even as a pocket type quarterback. It stands to follow that the team will feel they are at least solid at the center position. As always, the Bills would consider any player who could significantly upgrade any position. But I think it's likely that they are not currently targeting the center position as a positon where they need a starter immediately.
On the defensive line, one could argue that you can never have enough quality, rotational, defensive linemen. I agree that is true. However, the Bills have made significant investments in both starting defensive ends, traded up into the first round for one of the teams starting defensive tackles John McCargo, and just traded for a three time pro-bowl defensive tackle in Marcus Stroud. They have also used Kyle Williams as a starter multiple times, and just signed a utility type pass rushing defensive tackle in Spencer Johnson. If they were able to get another star or player with star potential, they made think about making that move. However, they have addressed the position and have a solid starting group.
Now, if we as fans buy into the notion that the Bills only need to add two more starters at this point, a wide receiver and a tight end, who fits the Bill?
Well, in free agency, there hasnt been a clear cut wide receiver who is a sure fire number two. Bryant Johnson, Ernest Wilford, and D.J. Hackett all garner consideration. But none have been a solid, multi-year starter at the number two position to earn the four to six million dollar per year salary that seems to be the likely cost. A player like Javon Walker is more like a feature wide receiver than a number two in talent, and comes with the perceived baggage of being a me-first complainer. That type of player tends to cost a great deal of money to obtain, and does not fit the high character, team player type that the Bills look for. Considering that the draft is fairly deep in wide receivers who have size and decent speed, I think it's likely that the Bills will look to that route instead. At the very least, they could draft a player with the size they need and do not currently have, and add a prospect to a group which does not have a player with number two potential. It is possible that the Bills go ahead and sign a player like Bryant Johnson, but considering the bloated cost, and suppressed upside, the draft seems a more likely route.
As with the wide receiver position, the tight end position boasts little, if any, bonafide upgrades in free agency. Alge Crumpler, albeit with questionable health, was the only true tight end upgrade. After him, players Like Ben Troupe, and Eric Johnson are more the type of players that haven't shown that they are solid starters. Each may have had a good year here and there, but neither has been a reliable threat. However, the draft again shows depth at the tight end position. Although there are no clear cut high first round prospects such as Vernon Davis, there are several players who could make an early impact as a receiver. Martellus Bennett, Jermichael Finley, and Dustin Keller all fit that role, to name a few. One could argue that the draft boasts as much potential as the free agent market at this point. I think the Bills will opt to address the position through the draft. However, they may find a free agent who has not been utilized in a system with a classic pocket quarterback, as they would here in Buffalo.
Finally, we fans must consider the recent history of the Bills when discussing what the team may do in this year's offseason. The Bills have been lucky enough to draft several starters in each of the past few years. Whether trading up into the late first or early second round, they have managed to net early starters out of their first two picks, at least. I think this means that they have convinced themselves that they can fill two starting positions with the first few rounds of the draft. Furthermore, that may make it even more unlikely that they go ahead and sign anymore free agents to become day one starters at their need positions.
All in all, I think it's likely that we have now reached the end of the major signings in free agency. The Buffalo Bills may continue to sign a player here or there, but only as a player with upside, and special team ability, at a reduced cost. Furthermore, I look for the Bills to draft a wide receiver, tight end, and possibly a cornerback early in this upcoming draft.
