| April 24, 2008 | « Previous Story | HOME | Next Story » | Posted at 09:00 AM |
Fans who would like to see the Buffalo Bills adopt a strict “Best Player Available” approach in the upcoming 2008 NFL Draft this weekend are, once again, likely to be disappointed. It appears that Russ Brandon, Tom Modrak, and Head Coach Dick Jauron, along with Bills owner Ralph Wilson, Jr., will continue to take the same kind of “targeted” approach to this year’s draft as they did in the two most recent past drafts, under former GM Marv Levy.
In Levy’s two drafts, the Bills “targeted” specific players, who could fill specific needs for the team early on. In the 2006 draft, knowing that they needed to add both a strong safety and defensive tackle capable of playing in the Tampa 2 defense that Head Coach Jauron was installing, the Bills shocked many by taking safety Donte Whitner with the 8th pick in the first round and, then, trading back up into the bottom of the first round to take John McCargo. In 2007, the Bills passed on filling their obvious need for a middle linebacker with Paul Posluzny, to fill their equally dire need for a running back, by taking Marshawn Lynch with the 12th pick in the first round. When Posluzny was still on the board early in the second round, once again the Bills traded up and took him.
If you see a pattern in what the Bills did with the first two picks in those two drafts, well, you should. In both cases, the Bills identified positions of need, and then not only used the depth at those positions on their draft board, but anticipated the moves that other teams might make to get the best combination of players that they could at those positions.
While more than a few Bills fans, and some in the media, have argued that the Bills did not get the value that they could have gotten with the picks that they expended to select those four players—particularly when you factor in the draft picks that they had to give up to move up to select McCargo and Posluzny- many teams in the NFL, no doubt including the Bills’ front office, would argue that value is a relative thing in the draft: that players who fit a team’s system, especially those who not only fit the system, but fill an obvious need, have more value than equally or somewhat more talented players who do not fit the team’s system, or who play a position that is already a strength.
From this approach, it can be argued that the Bills not only got four quality players who fit their system, but also the best combination of players to fit the team’s needs at the time. Certainly, the team could have gotten other players, perhaps even some higher rated players, at other positions (or, debatably, additional draft picks had they approached things differently, and been willing to risk losing out on the players that they had targeted, or been willing to take players that they had rated significantly lower at the positions they addressed), but it is hard to argue that they did not get the best combination of players at the positions that the team felt that it needed to address at the top of those two drafts.
That being the case, it is very likely that the Bills will continue to take a similar approach to the 2008 draft.
Anyone who has been following the Bills this off-season knows that the Bills are in dire need of a big, sure-handed # 2 wide receiver, a receiving tight end, a bigger cornerback, and depth on the defensive and offensive line, as well as a blocking fullback and a young quarterback who can be brought along as a back-up to starting QB Trent Edwards.
While there are a number of big wide receivers at the top of this year’s draft class, there is no clear-cut, “can’t miss” choice worthy of being taken with the 11th pick in the draft. It is a deep group overall, but a number of the top receivers in the class are not big enough to fill the Bills’ need for a bigger WR, and there are a number of teams that will be picking later in the first round and early in the second round that are likely to be looking to select a wide receiver as well.
Similarly, the tight end class is also deep, but, again, it also lacks a clear-cut, “can’t miss” number one guy with the kind of freakish athleticism and production to stand out head and shoulders above the rest. That being the case, it is unlikely that a tight end will be drafted in the first round, even though there are perhaps as many as five or six tight ends in this draft that have the talent to have long NFL careers.
The cornerback class is also deep, and lacks a clear-cut number one choice, but there is considerable quality and athleticism at the top of this group, and some may argue that there is enough quality depth in the class that a cornerback who would be a fit in the Bills’ Tampa 2 zone defense will probably still be available early in the third round. The problem is that NFL teams always need cornerbacks, and that need is even more acute now that teams have begun to use more 3- and 4-wide receiver sets on offense. Quality cornerbacks are at a premium, as evidenced by the huge salaries commanded by Nate Clements and Asante Samuel in free agency. And, as a result, in recent drafts, once the cornerbacks start to go, there is usually a “run” on the position with quite a number coming off the board in rapid succession.
The same is true with defensive linemen and offensive tackles, although there are, as a rule, far fewer available in any draft class. While this year’s class is deeper at these positions than most, the top rated offensive tackle, Jake Long of Michigan, has already signed with Miami, and will be the # 1 pick in the 2008 draft. It is likely that all of the top rated defensive linemen will be taken before the Bills pick at # 11.
This being the case, given the way that the Bills have approached the draft the last two years, it is likely that they will once again go into the draft having “targeted” not only the positions that they want to fill with their early picks in the draft, but with the goal of getting the best combination of players to fill those needs that they can.
The problem that the Bills will face in trying to achieve this goal will be anticipating which positions there will be a “run” on, and trying to make sure that they can get one of the players that they have “targeted” at that position before there is a considerable drop-off in quality at the position on their draft board. Given the fact that there will be a number of teams looking to add players at the same positions that the Bills will be looking to fill, doing that will not be easy.
In all likelihood, despite their desperate need for a big # 2 wide receiver, the Bills will go into the draft “targeting” one of the top two cornerbacks on their draft board— possibly Leodis McKelvin of Troy or Dominique Rogers-Cromartie of Tenn. St. (although they may have Antoine Cason of Arizona or Aqib Talib of Kansas rated higher on their board than one or both of these two). If the cornerback that they have “targeted” is still available, or if the “run” on cornerbacks has already begun, it is likely that the Bills will take a cornerback with the 11th pick in the draft.
If a defensive lineman that is projected to go in the Top 10 picks in the draft somehow falls to the Bills, the team will have a choice to make: Buffalo could take the player with their pick, or trade the pick to a team with a mid-round pick, and add an additional second- or third-round pick. With the money that the team currently has tied up in its defensive line, a trade-down would be most likely.
If the cornerback that the Bills have “targeted” going into the draft is not available when the 11th pick rolls around, the team will probably look to trade-down if at all possible. Given the team’s recent draft history, they probably won’t want to trade-down too far and risk missing out on the top player remaining in the group of players that they have “targeted”, but they could be willing to move down 6-8 spots, if they can get a good enough pick to allow them to either trade back up into the bottom of the first round or fill two positions with quality players in the second round. (With Kansas City having the 5th and 17th picks in the first round and needing to add offensive and defensive linemen as well as, perhaps, a quarterback, the Chiefs could be an ideal partner in such a trade-down scenario.)
If the Bills do trade-down out of the 11th pick, there is a fairly good chance that they will use their first pick on a wide receiver, probably Michigan State’s Devin Thomas. But, unless a “run” on wide receivers has already begun, or they anticipate that it is about to begin, there is just as good a chance that the Bills, anticipating the inevitable “run” on cornerbacks, will use their first pick to select the top cornerback remaining on their draft board, figuring that, with the picks that they have received for trading out of the 11th pick, they will be able to trade back up into the bottom of the first round to grab a big wide receiver.
Doing that would fit the pattern that the team has followed in the last two drafts.
But, without an extra third round pick and with a desperate need for a tight end (and, perhaps, an additional pass rusher), the only way that the Bills will be able to trade back up into the bottom of the first round, and still fill their positions of need in this draft, would be if they add at least one additional second- or third-round draft pick, by trading down out of the 11th pick in the draft. The cost of trading back up into the first round without first acquiring additional picks in a trade-down might well prove to be prohibitive in terms of limiting what the Bills will be able to do to fill their other needs later in the draft.
The problem with trading down in a draft where there isn’t outstanding quality at the top of the draft class, but there is a lot of depth— as is the case this year— is finding a trade partner that is interested in trading up, and has the wherewithal, in terms of draft picks, to make a trade worthwhile. It is easy for fans to say that their team should make a trade down (or up) in the draft, but it is a lot easier said than it is for a team to actually pull it off. Particularly in a year like this one, where there are a lot of teams looking to trade-down at the top of the first round, and not a whole lot of teams interested in moving up.
If the Bills are not able to trade-down out of the 11th pick and the cornerback they have “targeted” is already gone, they are going to have to make some hard decisions. And, they are going to have to be correct in determining which position, cornerback or wide receiver, there will be a “run” on first in order to come out of the first day of the draft with the best combination of players at those two positions that they can possibly get. If they make the wrong choice, it could prove to be a costly mistake in terms of draft picks and the team’s ability to fill its other pressing needs in this draft. So, there is little room for error.
The safest thing for the Bills to do, if they cannot trade-down out of the 11th pick in the draft, would be to take the highest rated wide receiver on their draft board, regardless of how others view that pick in terms of value, and hope that they can still get a decent cornerback prospect in the second round. The Bills showed, when they picked Donte Whitner, that they are not afraid to take a player at a position of dire need a few picks higher than he is expected to go. But, it cost them dearly when they had to give up a valuable draft pick to move back up into the first round to insure that they got John McCargo before another team selected him, or they were stuck having to select a much lower rated defensive tackle.
But, “playing it safe” may not be the best way for the Bills to get the best combination of players to fill the team’s most desperate needs. And, the team’s last two drafts have shown that the team’s approach to the draft is not necessarily to get the best player available at their spot in the draft, but to get the best combination of players that they feel that they can with the picks that they have at the top of their draft.
If the Bills are going to take that approach to this year’s draft— and there is no reason to believe that they will not— they are going to have to be very nimble and flexible, and make the right decisions during the first day of the draft. If they can do that, the Bills will have a very interesting and productive day. What they do may not satisfy those who think that the team should adopt a “best player available” strategy in the draft, but the team should be able to come up with a good combination of players to address the team’s most dire needs.
The question is whether, with only 10 minutes between picks to make decisions, the Bills’ new front office structure will allow the team to make decisions quickly, when it is essential for it to be most flexible and nimble on draft day. With the Bills needing to score big in this draft if the team is to seriously contend for a playoff berth this coming season, it is a test that Ralph Wilson and the rest of the team’s draft strategists must pass with flying colors.
The last two years, the Bills have shown that they could be flexible and respond to opportunities by trading up in the draft. This year, however, with the chance that there could be an early run on both of the positions that the Bills are looking to address at the top of their draft, they may have to prove that they can be even more nimble in reading the direction that the draft is going and responding, to come away with the best combination of players that they possibly can at those positions.
