The Calculus of the Draft for the Buffalo Bills

by Alex Soto

Every year, it is fun to go through and speculate whether the draft was a good draft, or did too many reaches bring the value/grade level down. Often, this is a difficult task, as different analysts, GMs, scouts and even fans have different players rated differently. As such, I make an attempt to find a consensus of when a player was opined to be drafted, and determine from there whether our draft of said player resulted in a reach or bargain based on that consensus. The NFL trade value chart will be used here to ascertain the value of where each prospect was chosen. The NFL value chart can be found here: http://www.nfldraftworld.com/tvc.htm

For the weak of heart at math, worry not. We will limit ourselves to simple adding and subtracting here.

Analysis:

1) First Round Pick: CB Leodis McKelvin at #11.

Pick # 11 is worth 1250 points (Note: Please see the link above for obtaining the point values).

Leodis McKelvin was rated by many as the top cornerback in the draft. Many believed it would be between him and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie for the first cornerback taken. The Bills rated McKelvin highest on their list, and didn’t even believe he would be available to them when the 11th pick came - thinking that either the New England Patriots or the New Orleans Saints would have grabbed him. Given that most analysts agreed with that assessment, I will average the pick McKelvin was worth as between the #7 of the Patriots and the #10 of the Saints. Overall, I will round that out to pick #8. The net loss or net gain then becomes the difference between the value we picked him at, and the value he is said to be worth.

This is an outstanding pick for the Bills, and they get a starting caliber player immediately to boost not only their secondary, but also their special teams, as McKelvin is generally viewed as a Devin Hester-like special teams return expert.

Net gain: 1400 – 1250 = 150 points

2) The Bills then get James Hardy at #41.

Pick # 41 = 490 points. This represents the Bills scheduled 2nd round pick.

Though word is that the Bills tried, and failed, to move up to the end of round 1 in a trade with the Giants (presumably for the top WR in their books – Devin Thomas) they end up waiting the game out, and with a little help from the entire NFL GM conglomerate, no WRs are taken in the 1st round. This allows a top WR with size to fall to the Bills, and they are not forced to move up and use an extra draft pick in a trade. Many drafts initially projected the tall WR in the early second, though some were predicting that if Thomas, Sweed and Kelly went quickly, Hardy could also go at the end of the 1st round. That being said, I think Hardy went exactly where he was supposed to. A consensus would likely have him going exactly where he went at position #41. Given that we picked him right about where he was predicting to go, the net gain or loss for this pick is 0.

While that doesn’t sound really positive, it should be noted that the Bills got exactly what they needed at this point, and for the first two rounds have filled major holes immensely. James Hardy is a perfect #2 complement wide receiver, with tremendous athleticism and height. He should boost the red zone numbers tremendously. At this point, even a small negative would be acceptable if they have filled important holes on their team.

Total gain so far: 150 + 0 = 150 points.

3) The Bills then draft Chris Ellis at #72

Pick # 72 = 230 points. Many mock drafts had him going in the second half of the 3rd round. A consensus might have him listed somewhere around #87. Pick # 87 is worth 155 points. The Bills reach slightly here, against the consensus of mock drafts out there. For this pick, we obtain a draft value then of 155 points - 230 points or a net loss of -75 points.

This pick is sort of so-so for me. It was not a huge reach in any sense of the word. The Bills do also need to develop defensive ends, and this guy might be a very situation pass rusher for them. Given that the cover 2 system lives and dies by the defensive linemen, I have no problem with this pick, and hope he develops and replaces Kelsay and improves the other side opposite Schobel for years to come. All in all, the pick is fine and acceptable, even if a slight reach.

Total gain so far: 150-75 = 75 points

4a) With their first 4th round pick, the Bills choose: Reggie Corner at 114th of the draft.

Pick #114 = 72 points. I have not seen one mock draft that had this prospect within. Though he looks like a decent prospect, this pick was most definitely a reachn and possibly a waste at the 4th round. With so many picks still available, I might have chosen DT Dre Moore, S Quitin Demps, LB Xavier Adibi, or possibly WR Lavelle Hawkins. While having another backup CB is not necessarily a bad idea, with the addition of William James, it shouldn’t have been necessary. This must indicate a displeasure with Youboty, but even so, I would have waited to draft another CB in a lower round, given that this pick will be strictly for depth and more than likely for special teams play – I might have considered Darnell Terrell later. As a result, a higher, more promising prospect fitting a depth hole on the team could have been gotten with the pick. All points are deducted for this reach that might not have even been drafted, and could possibly have gotten UDFA.

Total gain so far = 75 - 72 = 3 points

4b) With their second 4th round pick, the Bills choose: Derek Fine at 132nd of the draft.

Pick #132 =44 points. This pick was essentially a free pick given to us as a compensatory pick. As such, it technically carries no value, since it cannot be traded. However, for the purposes of grading, I will set it equal to the last pick in the 4th round, to attempt and give a value to whatever prospect we choose. As with the pick above, I could not find Derek Fine in any mock draft. Here is another case where the Bills scouts are finding these players that have little experience, and giving them a higher emphasis than they should. When it happens once, I can just let it slide…but when it happens several times, I have to wonder about the scouts that the Bills have working for them. The front office relies on their scouts to evaluate players and rank them accordingly, and as of now, I think the Bills have a poor set of scouts out there. With so many picks still available, I might have chosen TE Kellen Davis, TE Gary Barnridge, DT DeMario Pressley, WR Josh Morgan or possibly a Center – John Sullivan.

The Bills slip down into the negative range with another pick that would likely have gone undrafted. However, given that this pick was free, is not that big of a deal – except that they could have done better.

Total LOSS so far = 3 - 44 = -41 points

5) The Bills select: Alvin Bowen drafted at #147

Pick#147=36 points. Bowen is actually a decent pick in their 5th round. He has good height, and will need to add weight to his frame at LB. His value will be in special teams, as he is considered a special teams ace. It is clear that the Bills are placing a huge emphasis on special teams in the middle and late rounds. With the loss of players in the last 2 years such as Sam Aiken, Andre Davis, Coy Wire, Josh Stamer, Mario Haggan, etc, the Bills are realizing that they must replenish their once highly vaunted special teams with new speedy youngsters.

All in all, I’d say Bowen was probably drafted where he should have been. The net result is a 0 change.

Total LOSS: -41 + 0 = -41 points.

6) The Bills select: Xaviar Omon drafted at #179

Pick#179=22 points. Xavier Omon is actually a pretty decent RB. Except that the Bills had no need for one, which makes this pick questionable. From a value point of view, this will make his pick look good. Omon could also be projected to FB, but he’s got competition. If the Bills like his running speed and toughness, they may keep him at FB, as he’s a tough inside runner that could likely get those small yards to not punish Lynch throughout the season. However, this is what was expected from Wright, whom they drafted last year. So…are they now not happy with him after just one year?

A puzzling pick that results in okay grading based on value, but not necessarily furthering their holes/depth filling, nor meeting the approval of fans who have now seen 3 questionable picks. Some other considerations here could have been DE Chris Harrington, C John Sullivan or WR Pierre Garcon.

In all fairness, Omon was pictured to go probably right around where he went, so this has no net effect on the Bills’ grade based on value. It does, however, have an effect on the usability of his pick.

Total LOSS: -41 + 0 = -41 points.

For the remaining picks (three 7th rounders) I'd say they were about right, and won't offer much either way, even if we try to be more specific in terms of ascertaining their draft value.

Conclusion:

Overall, Buffalo moved slightly into the negative, but not enough where it would be considered a bad draft. The slight negative downtrend occurred with their picks in the 4th round, and one of them was free. Additionally, one of their 7ths was free also, and these should be viewed as bonuses. All in all, they filled two major holes with the first two picks, with two players that should start immediately. The majority of the rest of the players were drafted for a special teams that was once highly recognized, and as of last year, fell to a more slightly better than mediocre rank.

My overall draft grade ends with a B-, not because of who they got, but more because of who they COULD have got. As in everything, the proof will be on game day, and it’ll be a few years before we can see and judge the real overall grade of this draft.

In the immediate future however, I expect our top two picks to play a major role on the team. And along with all the returning injured players, such as Poz, as well as the new acquisitions on our defense, this should be a year that we can finally make the playoffs. Bills fans everywhere should be happier than they’ve been in a long time on the prospects of their team this season!