Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

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  • notacon
    Registered User
    • Aug 2012
    • 33094

    #46
    Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

    Originally posted by jamze132 View Post
    So you’re saying you have to take a risk to get a reward… lol

    Sit down.

    Jesus.

    Your misrepresenting what I write is almost comical. I did NOT say that "you have to take a risk to get a reward". Why do you feel the need to misrepresent what I write??!?!?

    What I am saying is that a "closed minded, narrow vision with predetermined mindset" is the trait of a terrible GM that will to have the job of GM for long.

    Being a chicken **** coward, and terrible GM is one who has the mindset of "Why trade away multiple picks to move up for a guy that might not pan out?"

    Comment

    • notacon
      Registered User
      • Aug 2012
      • 33094

      #47
      Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

      Originally posted by YardRat View Post
      So 34 trades and we have three players still with the team beyond their first contract (Allen, Knox, Bass), and zero conference championships.

      Is that 'good'?
      Hmmmmmm. A team that has the second longest current consecutive playoff appearances (five, KC is #1 with nine) and the second longest consecutive division titles (four, KC is #1 with eight) is "not good"?!?!?

      It's a false that "three players still with the team beyond their first contract". What about....

      Matt Milano
      Dion Dawkins
      Siran Neal
      Taron Johnson
      Ed Oliver
      AJ Epenesa

      All of those players (except Neal) are backbone starters.

      Besides the fact that all the players drafted in 2021, 2022 & 2023 are not "beyond their first contract" because they don't have to be.

      Many of those players are either already backbone starters or looking very good that they will be.....

      Greg Rousseau
      Spencer Brown
      James Cook
      Terrel Bernard
      Kahlil Shakir
      Christian Benford
      O'Cyrus Torrence
      Dalton Kincaid

      That's 15 out of 22 starters (not including Bass)

      Your observation is rather silly and misleading.

      Comment

      • notacon
        Registered User
        • Aug 2012
        • 33094

        #48
        Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

        Besides the fact that many of the trades Beane did are also important starters. Not counting the newsts players that sure lok like they will be important starters....Curtis Samuel & Mike Edwards.

        McGovern
        Von Miller
        Rasul Douglas
        David Edwards
        DaQuan Jones

        All in all, it looks like extremely competent and skilled TEAM building that has resulted in one of the bets teams in the NFL, despite them not getting over the playoff hump YET.

        Comment

        • kgun12
          Registered User
          • Jul 2002
          • 11319

          #49
          Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

          Originally posted by notacon View Post
          Hmmmmmm. A team that has the second longest current consecutive playoff appearances (five, KC is #1 with nine) and the second longest consecutive division titles (four, KC is #1 with eight) is "not good"?!?!?

          It's a false that "three players still with the team beyond their first contract". What about....

          Matt Milano
          Dion Dawkins
          Siran Neal
          Taron Johnson
          Ed Oliver
          AJ Epenesa

          All of those players (except Neal) are backbone starters.

          Besides the fact that all the players drafted in 2021, 2022 & 2023 are not "beyond their first contract" because they don't have to be.

          Many of those players are either already backbone starters or looking very good that they will be.....

          Greg Rousseau
          Spencer Brown
          James Cook
          Terrel Bernard
          Kahlil Shakir
          Christian Benford
          O'Cyrus Torrence
          Dalton Kincaid

          That's 15 out of 22 starters (not including Bass)

          Your observation is rather silly and misleading.
          How many on these lists did Bean risk more draft picks for the rewards from them. and when almost 70% of first round picks are a bust (post #43), why would teams risk using more draft choice to move up. The better odds is to draft more players in hope of find that one good players. Strength in numbers theory.
          Retired Air Traffic Controller
          USAF VETERAN
          DAV

          Comment

          • YardRat
            Well, lookie here...
            • Dec 2004
            • 86311

            #50
            Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

            Originally posted by notacon View Post
            Hmmmmmm. A team that has the second longest current consecutive playoff appearances (five, KC is #1 with nine) and the second longest consecutive division titles (four, KC is #1 with eight) is "not good"?!?!?

            It's a false that "three players still with the team beyond their first contract". What about....

            Matt Milano
            Dion Dawkins
            Siran Neal
            Taron Johnson
            Ed Oliver
            AJ Epenesa


            All of those players (except Neal) are backbone starters.
            None of those players were listed as being involved with the trades referenced, and Neal is gone.
            Besides the fact that all the players drafted in 2021, 2022 & 2023 are not "beyond their first contract" because they don't have to be.

            Many of those players are either already backbone starters or looking very good that they will be.....

            Greg Rousseau
            Spencer Brown
            James Cook
            Terrel Bernard
            Kahlil Shakir
            Christian Benford
            O'Cyrus Torrence
            Dalton Kincaid

            That's 15 out of 22 starters (not including Bass)

            Your observation is rather silly and misleading.
            Yeah the jury is still out on the younger guys involved in the trades. We'll see.

            And my statement is factually correct.
            YardRat Wall of Fame
            #56 DARRYL TALLEY
            #29 DERRICK BURROUGHS#22 FRED JACKSON #95 KYLE WILLIAMS

            Comment

            • Bill Cody
              Registered User
              • Sep 2004
              • 11915

              #51
              Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

              It's all going to depend on who is there at 28 when we get to pick if we'll be wise to consider trading down. That's why you have a GM that knows what we need and a draft board that assigns hopefully accurate values.

              Do I hope someone slips a Xanax into Beane's coffee on draft night? Of course. And give the man a brown paper bag when the draft gets into the 20's. Since we're in a semi rebuild burning picks this year is not ideal. You'd feel better if we still had our third. But ideally you grab Mitchell at 28 and another starter at 60. Then if Beane wants to slide around like a pole dancer have at it.

              Comment

              • kgun12
                Registered User
                • Jul 2002
                • 11319

                #52
                Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

                Originally posted by Bill Cody View Post
                It's all going to depend on who is there at 28 when we get to pick if we'll be wise to consider trading down. That's why you have a GM that knows what we need and a draft board that assigns hopefully accurate values.

                Do I hope someone slips a Xanax into Beane's coffee on draft night? Of course. And give the man a brown paper bag when the draft gets into the 20's. Since we're in a semi rebuild burning picks this year is not ideal. You'd feel better if we still had our third. But ideally you grab Mitchell at 28 and another starter at 60. Then if Beane wants to slide around like a pole dancer have at it.
                Yes! Hopefully someone in the war room has Xanax and a paper bag.
                Retired Air Traffic Controller
                USAF VETERAN
                DAV

                Comment

                • notacon
                  Registered User
                  • Aug 2012
                  • 33094

                  #53
                  Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

                  Originally posted by kgun12 View Post
                  How many on these lists did Bean risk more draft picks for the rewards from them. and when almost 70% of first round picks are a bust (post #43), why would teams risk using more draft choice to move up. The better odds is to draft more players in hope of find that one good players. Strength in numbers theory.
                  It is false that "70% of first round picks are a bust". Citing information from a fan site is useless. Of course that does depend on how one defines "bust".

                  Although there is some evidence that "teams risk using more draft choice to move up.", that is not a given. Sometimes that risk pays off, sometimes it does not. My point is to reject doing so out of hand is silly, narrow minded and would show gross incompetence by a GM.

                  There are "busts" up and down the draft. It is a fact that the bust rate increases with every round. I've researched this in the past....I'm on the raod right now vitiing family so I do not have to time to resurrect my findings.

                  It's a fact that drafting, in and of itself, is a very, very difficult thing to do.

                  Comment

                  • notacon
                    Registered User
                    • Aug 2012
                    • 33094

                    #54
                    Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

                    Originally posted by YardRat View Post
                    None of those players were listed as being involved with the trades referenced, and Neal is gone.


                    Yeah the jury is still out on the younger guys involved in the trades. We'll see.

                    And my statement is factually correct.

                    Seriously?!?! You really want to confusingly parse what you wrote??


                    Me missing Neal actually proves my point even more.


                    My post is factually correct as well.

                    Comment

                    • kgun12
                      Registered User
                      • Jul 2002
                      • 11319

                      #55
                      Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

                      Originally posted by notacon View Post
                      It is false that "70% of first round picks are a bust". Citing information from a fan site is useless. Of course that does depend on how one defines "bust".

                      Although there is some evidence that "teams risk using more draft choice to move up.", that is not a given. Sometimes that risk pays off, sometimes it does not. My point is to reject doing so out of hand is silly, narrow minded and would show gross incompetence by a GM.

                      There are "busts" up and down the draft. It is a fact that the bust rate increases with every round. I've researched this in the past....I'm on the raod right now vitiing family so I do not have to time to resurrect my findings.

                      It's a fact that drafting, in and of itself, is a very, very difficult thing to do.
                      I would agree if it was his opinion, but the numbers don’t lie, they either performed well or didn’t. It’s pretty easy to tell. A perfect example is P. Manny vs R. Leaf. J. Allen vs Rosen. Mike Williams, Cordy Gleen busts. Torrance Kincaid not busts!
                      Retired Air Traffic Controller
                      USAF VETERAN
                      DAV

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                      • kgun12
                        Registered User
                        • Jul 2002
                        • 11319

                        #56
                        Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

                        Not Glenn, Ford.
                        Retired Air Traffic Controller
                        USAF VETERAN
                        DAV

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                        • Woodman
                          Legendary Zoner
                          • Apr 2014
                          • 65988

                          #57
                          Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

                          Originally posted by Historian View Post
                          I think they will move up seven or eight spots in the first round and take the Thomas kid from LSU.
                          Would love to land that guy!!

                          “It breaks your heart when someone leaves and you don’t know why.”

                          "It may be raining but there's a rainbow above you"


                          Former President Donald Trump early Thursday touted the results of a new NPR/PBSNewsHour/Marist poll showing him ahead of President Joe Biden by 8 percentage points among independents.

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                          • notacon
                            Registered User
                            • Aug 2012
                            • 33094

                            #58
                            Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

                            Originally posted by kgun12 View Post
                            I would agree if it was his opinion, but the numbers don’t lie, they either performed well or didn’t. It’s pretty easy to tell. A perfect example is P. Manny vs R. Leaf. J. Allen vs Rosen. Mike Williams, Cordy Gleen busts. Torrance Kincaid not busts!
                            Yeah, the numbers do not lie.

                            The numbers show unequivocally that the idea that "70% of first round picks are a bust" is total bullcrap. 100%.

                            Mentioning "P. Manny vs R. Leaf. J. Allen vs Rosen. Mike Williams, Cordy Gleen busts." shows how insipid the premise is.

                            Having to go back to last century and with the "P Manny vs. R. Leaf" and "J. Allen vs Rosen" to disparage years and years of drafting, does not come close to validating that "70% of first round picks are a bust"

                            Cordy Glenn is a irrelevant example because he was not even a first found pick. Yes, Mike Williams was...but that happened TWENTY ONE YEARS ago. You literally cherry picked ONE Bills 1st round draftees that was a "bust".

                            The NFL has drafted approximately 1,800 first round players in the Super Bowl era. It is beyond STUPID to opine (the dumb fan "writer" you quoted) that 1,260 of those were "busts".

                            Jesus, even in the FIFTY SIX YEARS of Bills drafting, which 57 players, I count about (maybe) 12 "busts". Only 21%. And that is with many eras of crapping Bills drafting before the McBeane Era.

                            A more accurate and reasonable statement is that most likely "70% of first round picks are a NOT a bust"

                            Comment

                            • notacon
                              Registered User
                              • Aug 2012
                              • 33094

                              #59
                              Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

                              Originally posted by kgun12 View Post
                              Not Glenn, Ford.

                              No difference. Ford was not a first round pick either.

                              Comment

                              • YardRat
                                Well, lookie here...
                                • Dec 2004
                                • 86311

                                #60
                                Re: Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

                                Originally posted by kgun12 View Post
                                Not Glenn, Ford.
                                Glenn Ford played for the Bills?
                                YardRat Wall of Fame
                                #56 DARRYL TALLEY
                                #29 DERRICK BURROUGHS#22 FRED JACKSON #95 KYLE WILLIAMS

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