This column will typically consist of statistical analysis of the Buffalo Bills\u2019 upcoming opponent. However, since the Bills\u2019 players will mainly be fighting the urge to sleep in this coming week, I\u2019ll use the space on the server to wax poetic about the previous game as well as Buffalo\u2019s overall stats to date.<\/p>\n
\u00a0Game against the Giants:<\/p>\n
\u00a02<\/strong> \u2013 turnovers. There\u2019s not much else to say here. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw two poor passes right to Corey Webster. Nobody knows how much the first interception affected the game. However, based on field position it would seem that the second pick ended up being at least a six point swing in favor of the Giants. The Bills lost the first game of the season where they didn\u2019t win the turnover battle, but it was extremely competitive.<\/p>\n \u00a03 – 0\u00a0<\/strong>\u2013 sacks by Giants and sacks by Bills. Eli Manning\u2019s dry cleaners have an easy job this week, as the New York QB came out of the game as unscathed as his backup David Carr. I\u2019m pretty sure even a CSI team couldn\u2019t confirm with absolute certainty that the Bills were even on the field for the Giants\u2019 passing plays. Meanwhile, Buffalo\u2019s offensive line finally allowed multiple sacks in a game to one of the best pass-rushing teams in the league.<\/p>\n \u00a00<\/strong> \u2013 three and outs by the Buffalo offense. Granted, there was a four and out on the Bills\u2019 last drive of the game. However, they managed to get at least one first down on every other drive of the game. I find that to be very impressive \u2013 especially when one of those drives starts with a ten yard sack \u2013 and a sign thatBuffalo\u2019s offense is surging, as opposed to the perception that it\u2019s petering out. In fact, Buffalo\u2019s offensive output in terms of points has increased each week since theCincinnatigame from 13, to 23, to 24.<\/p>\n \u00a0Season to date:<\/p>\n \u00a0If you had told me prior to the season that one Buffalo unit was top 10 and the other was bottom 10, I would have guessed that defense was the former and offense the latter. After all, so much new personnel had been introduced to the Bills\u2019 defense, while the offense traded away one of its top wide receivers and made few to no apparent improvements.<\/p>\n \u00a0However, the numbers tell an interesting tale, one that nobody could have expected entering the season. If the stats are a reflection of any one thing, I\u2019d have to say it was coaching. Chan Gailey has impressed as an offensive mind, while George Edwards has been a severe disappointment with regards to every facet of the defense. The following numbers for the season may be slightly obscure, but I hope to shed light on the Buffalo Bills from slightly different angles. Current NFL ranks in parentheses after description of the statistic. Starting with the defense:<\/p>\n \u00a05.1<\/strong> \u2013 yards per run against our defense (29, tied). This is one of the most frustrating statistics in my mind this year. Mostly because it doesn\u2019t accurately reflect the improvement fromBuffalo\u2019s defense that I see on the field. Last season the Bills consistently gave up 5-6 yard runs nearly every time. This year, they\u2019re doing a decent job of holding teams in the run game, butBuffalois giving up just a couple too many big runs every game to bring the yards per carry average up. That theory is supported by the fact that they\u2019ve given up 9 runs for over 20 yards, which is tied for 30th in the league. In the end, it is what it is, and the Bills need to improve with regards to stopping big gains, especially on draw plays and reverses, which killed their averages in the first few games.<\/p>\n \u00a039<\/strong> \u2013 percentage of third downs converted by opposing offenses (17). It is a fairly average value that will hopefully improve along with the pass rush. Unfortunately, the Bills are tied with two other teams in allowing 100% of 4th downs to be converted:MiamiandIndianapolis.<\/p>\n \u00a06.6<\/strong> \u2013 yards per play given up to opposing offenses (31). This is simply a number that shows how poorBuffalo\u2019s\u00a0 run and pass defense is in terms of average yards per play. The most yards per play allowed last year wasJacksonville, who averaged 6.3 YPP allowed.<\/p>\n \u00a063.1<\/strong> \u2013 completion percentage for opposing quarterbacks (21). The value is slightly lower than I was expecting. Strangely enough,Buffalo\u2019s defense has the exact same ranking in yards per attempt \u2013 7.8 (21) \u2013 and attempts per game \u2013 37.0 (21). However, all of these combine to give 284.8 yards per game, which is 30th in the league. This is because the teams allowing similar or more yards per attempt actually have much fewer attempts per game against them. I have to think the potency of the Bills\u2019 offense leads to opposing teams attempting more passes.<\/p>\n \u00a0The Bills\u2019 defense is exactly what the numbers say \u2013 bottom of the league. Only one number indicates a good defense, and it is the same number that has contributed heavily to their current winning record: 12 interceptions (1). As baffling as this number may be, combined with the other numbers it indicates thatBuffalo\u2019s defense is all or nothing. They either get the picks or they get picked apart. The defensive unit really needs to be repaired over the bye week, particularly the pass rush, which only has 4 sacks on the season (32).<\/p>\n \u00a0Now we get to talk about the Bills\u2019 offense, which has obviously exceeded everyone\u2019s expectations for the season and shows no signs of stopping despite numerous injuries. The stats tell a story similar to what people are seeing on the field.<\/p>\n \u00a031.3<\/strong> \u2013 points per game scored (2). While Gailey\u2019s team sits ninth in the league in yards per game, they are putting up points very efficiently. The offense has really been the saving grace compared to the defense. Given that the defense is allowing 24.5 points per game (31), the Bills are winning by a touchdown on average. That is mostly thanks to the stomping of the Chiefs in the first week, of course.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n 5.2<\/strong> \u2013 yards per run (2). The Bills are 6th in the league in yards per play with 6.1, and the run game is a huge part of that. While the run game has come back down to earth slightly in the last few weeks, it\u2019s still producing at a high level and now big plays are keeping that average high rather than consistent yardage.<\/p>\n \u00a07.3<\/strong> \u2013 yards per passing attempt (15). While the Bills aren\u2019t a downfield passing team, they\u2019ve done enough of it this year to keep their YPA reasonably high. Catch and runs like Naaman Roosevelt\u2019s 60-yarder against the Giants certainly help.<\/p>\n \u00a021.8<\/strong> \u2013 first downs per game (6). This is five more first downs per game than last year, despite the fact that Buffalo\u2019s third down conversion percentage, 40 (14), is not significantly better than last year\u2019s. That could be due to getting more third down opportunities (i.e. more possessions per game) or getting more first downs off of first or second down instead of third. It seems to be to be a combination of the two. The time of possession increase, from 28:36 per game in 2010 to 31:21 each week in 2011, indicates the Bills are indeed getting more possessions.<\/p>\n \u00a0I\u2019d be remiss to ignore the most important stat, the +9 turnover margin. At this point, most everyone seems to be aware that that is contributing significantly toBuffalo\u2019s success, especially compared to last year\u2019s turnover margin of -17.<\/p>\n \u00a0The statistics seem to tell the story of the Bills\u2019 season pretty accurately. Offensively, they\u2019ve been one of the top teams in the league, but defensively they need some significant improvement.<\/p>\n