Updated Playoff picture.

[Patrick76777]

Everything went perfect yesterday. We even got a bonus Jacksonville loss. I’ll show you how that helps us later.

Scenario 1. My original plan!

Again, we need to win out (Tenn and at Baltimore). In addition we need the following:

Week 16.
Saturday night – KC over Oakland
1:00 – NE over Jacksonville
4:00 – Cincy over Denver
Christmas night – Miami over Jets

Yes, we need to root for NE and Miami. That’s going to be tough.

Week 17
This is where the Jacksonville loss helps us.

In my old scenario, we needed KC to beat Jacksonville. Now need EITHER:

KC over Jacksonville

OR

SF over Denver.

The reason is that Denver beats us in tie-breakers, but KC beats Denver and we beat KC. So it’s simple. If Denver finishes 9-7, we also need KC to finish 9-7. Because then they would knock out Denver since ties are broken within the division first. If Denver finishes 8-8, then we don’t care what KC does.

Finish (If KC beats Jax)
Buff – 9-7
Den – 9-7
Jets – 9-7
KC – 9-7
Jax –8-8

We beat the Jets on the 4th tie-breaker, KC beats Denver in the AFC West Tie-breaker, Buffalo beats KC on AFC record.

Finish (if SF beats Denver because Jax beat KC)
Buff – 9-7
Jets – 9-7
Jax –9-7
KC – 8-8
Den – 8-8

We beat the Jets on the 4th tie-breaker, Buffalo beats Jax on head to head.


Scenario 2: NEW

This scenario is similar to the first, only in this one, we do not concede the first wild card to Cincy. We concede it to Denver.

Under this scenario, we once again need to win out.

Cincy finishes the season 0-3 (At Indy, At Den, Pitts).

Tonight
Indy over Cincy

Week 16
1:00 – NE over Jacksonville
4:00 – Denver over Cincy
Christmas night – Miami over Jets

Week 17
*Pitts over Cincy

*This is where it gets interesting, we may not actually need this game. This could get confusing.

Assuming Cincy beats to Pittsburgh and finishes 9-7, the race for the last spot would look something like this.

Finish
Buff – 9-7
Cincy – 9-7
Jax – 9-7 or 8-8 (L to NE, and it doesn’t matter about KC. )
Jets – 9-7
KC – 9-7 or 8-8 (W over Oakland, and it doesn’t matter about JAX)

Again, tie-breakers are broken in the division first, therefore we eliminate the Jets based on the 4th tie-breaker.

Then we go to AFC record and Cincy and Buffalo would finish 7-5, while the others would not and thus be eliminated.

Buffalo and Cincy would go to the 4th wild card tiebreaker, which is Strength of victory. As is stands right now, if my plan plays out, The teams we beat have 62 wins and the teams Cincy beat have 57 wins. So as of now, we would have the tie-breaker and would get the spot. Those numbers will change in the last 2 weeks. If we did manage to tie in that 4th tie-breaker it would go to strength of schedule and we would also win that one. So Cincy would have to have a 6 point swing in Strength of victory over the last 2 weeks of the season.

Now if Cincy does lose to Pittsburgh in week 17, Strength of victory won’t matter because they’ll finish a game behind us at 8-8. It would look like this:

Finish
Buff – 9-7
Jax – 9-7 or 8-8 (L to NE, and it doesn’t matter about KC. )
Jets – 9-7
KC – 9-7 or 8-8 (W over Oakland, and it doesn’t matter about JAX)
Cincy – 8-8.

Like the scenario above, we beat Jets on 4th tiebreaker, and we’d beat either the Jags or KC on tie-breaker. We’re in the playoffs.

[YardRat]

Everything went perfect yesterday. We even got a bonus Jacksonville loss. I’ll show you how that helps us later.


It would've been 'perfect' if Minnesota beat the Jets.

[The_Philster]

:dizzy:

[ICE74129]

Ok holdup, first off we have to go 9-7 and I don't see it unless the Ravens sit their starters.

[Patrick76777]

This is confusing and I fear that it may make it seem more difficult then it actually is.

Scenario 1

Week 16
KC over Oak
NE over Jax
Cincy over Den
Miami over Jets

Week 17

KC over Jax
Or
SF over Den


Scenario 2

Tonight
Indy over Cincy

Week 16
NE over Jax
Denver over Cincy
Miami over Jets

Week 17
We may or may not need Pitts to beat Cincy. Depending on Strength of victory ti-breaker.

[The_Philster]

Ok holdup, first off we have to go 9-7.He already said that we'd have to win out :cynic:

[ICE74129]

He already said that we'd have to win out :cynic:And?

[Patrick76777]

It would've been 'perfect' if Minnesota beat the Jets.


We still would have needed the Jets to lose to Miami anyway so they finish 3-3 in the East and it goes to the 4th tie-breaker.

A loss to Minny wouldn't really have helped us believe it or not.

[Dr. Lecter]

Ok holdup, first off we have to go 9-7 and I don't see it unless the Ravens sit their starters.

With McNair being banged up, that might happen.

Regardless, the Ravens are not an offensive juggernaut. While I agree the Bills migthnot score very much inthat game, I also don't see teh Ravens racking up many points.

16-13 Bills. McGee finally gets his KO return for a TD.

[Patrick76777]

What’s very interesting is that if Indy can win tonight, the Cincy v. Denver game won’t really matter.

If Cincy wins that one, we go with Scenario 1

If Denver wins it, we’ll go to Scenario 2.

[Patrick76777]

What’s very interesting is that if Indy can win tonight, the Cincy v. Denver game won’t really matter.

If Cincy wins that one, we go with Scenario 1

If Denver wins it, we’ll go to Scenario 2.


And if Cincy losses tonight and we go with Scenario 2, we could very well be in a spot where we won't need week 17 help.

One game vs. the Ravens for a spot in the playoffs.

[ICE74129]

With McNair being banged up, that might happen.

Regardless, the Ravens are not an offensive juggernaut. While I agree the Bills migthnot score very much inthat game, I also don't see teh Ravens racking up many points.

16-13 Bills. McGee finally gets his KO return for a TD.

True, its going to be more so how we protect the ball and score. If we can put up 17-24 points we win easy at Baltimore.

[Romes]

Go Miami :puke:

[HHURRICANE]

Guys we are in much better shape than you realize. We own some tie breakers etc. What really needs to happen is getting to 9-7. The teams that are at 8-6 have there work cut out. An Indy win would be huge tonight!!

The Bills can beat the Ravens. Hell, with the exception of the Bears we have hung with everybody this year!!

Travis Henry coming back to Buffalo scares me.

[jdbillsfan]

What about if the Jets beat Miami? Are we out?

[RedEyE]

Baltimore looks very beatable without McNair. He's an old man and if they win this week, I think he will be riding pine in week 17 to rest his bones before the playoffs begins. Of course that also depends on how the home field advantage positioning all comes into play.

[Patrick76777]

What about if the Jets beat Miami? Are we out?


Just about. If that happens, We can not catch them.

We would need Cincy and Denver to lose out. (other then the game they play with each other. And we'd need a few other things.


If there is a "most important game" it's the Miami vs. Jets game. we really need Miami to win that one.

[RedEyE]

It would be great if we made the playoffs, but it is also completely unexpected. No one should hold this team liable if they finish a season at 8-8, 7-9, or even 9-7 without a playoff birth.

The Bills nearly beat the Colts, Chargers and Patriots. Those were all hard fought winable games by Buffalo.

I call this season progression and impressive. I have very high hopes for the future.

[Mr. Miyagi]

My head hurts like hell. :ill:

[Earthquake Enyart]

I love new scenarios. :bf1:

[BAM]

Miami is going to screw us I can feel it.

Hopefully they come out shooting though after the emberassment we just handed them.

[Earthquake Enyart]

Somehow we need a turn of events that make our last game meaningless to the Ravens.

Or have McNair's injury be bad.

[Jeff1220]

Get some high sound quality tapes of Pennington's signals to Saban, stat!

[Scumbag College]

What happens if there is a four way tiebreaker for the last playoff spot?????

[Patrick76777]

Somehow we need a turn of events that make our last game meaningless to the Ravens.

Or have McNair's injury be bad.


Ask and you shall receive

If Indy wins tonight and beats Houston next week

SD beats Seattle next week

and Baltimore loses to Pittsburgh next week, Baltimore would not be able to get a first round bye and would be locked into the 3rd or 4th seed.

The problem with that is that they might still fight for the 3rd seed in order to have a possible home game in case the 4th seed advances to the championship game.

Is that worth it. It might be

[Patrick76777]

What happens if there is a four way tiebreaker for the last playoff spot?????


I went through all of that. Provided some examples.

[Mitchy moo]

Ask and you shall receive

If Indy wins tonight and beats Houston next week

SD beats Seattle next week

and Baltimore loses to Pittsburgh next week, Baltimore would not be able to get a first round bye and would be locked into the 3rd or 4th seed.

The problem with that is that they might still fight for the 3rd seed in order to have a possible home game in case the 4th seed advances to the championship game.

Is that worth it. It might be

Great Job pat, on all of this.

[madness]

Ok holdup, first off we have to go 9-7 and I don't see it unless the Ravens sit their starters.

Are you bipolar? :crazy:

http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php?t=115950

<TABLE class=tborder id=post1773220 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TABLE cellSpacing=6 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD noWrap>ICE74129 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/member.php?u=4630)<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_1773220", true); </SCRIPT>


</TD><TD width="100%"></TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap><!-- icon and title -->Re: I really think we go 9-7. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- / user info --></TD></TR><TR><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_1773220><!-- message, attachments, sig --><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message --><!-- BEGIN TEMPLATE: bbcode_quote -->Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by RockStar36
Baltimore is still going for a first round bye, so don't count on them playing 2nd teamers.


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- END TEMPLATE: bbcode_quote -->They win this week and they have it I believe. Either way, we should beat them


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[Devin]

nice job Pat.

Ill be pulling for indy tonight. Next week is going to be huge.

Playoffs or not this team is far and away better then expected.

[X-Era]

Everything went perfect yesterday. We even got a bonus Jacksonville loss. I’ll show you how that helps us later.

Scenario 1. My original plan!

Again, we need to win out (Tenn and at Baltimore). In addition we need the following:

Week 16.
Saturday night – KC over Oakland
1:00 – NE over Jacksonville
4:00 – Cincy over Denver
Christmas night – Miami over Jets

Yes, we need to root for NE and Miami. That’s going to be tough.

Week 17
This is where the Jacksonville loss helps us.

In my old scenario, we needed KC to beat Jacksonville. Now need EITHER:

KC over Jacksonville

OR

SF over Denver.

The reason is that Denver beats us in tie-breakers, but KC beats Denver and we beat KC. So it’s simple. If Denver finishes 9-7, we also need KC to finish 9-7. Because then they would knock out Denver since ties are broken within the division first. If Denver finishes 8-8, then we don’t care what KC does.

Finish (If KC beats Jax)
Buff – 9-7
Den – 9-7
Jets – 9-7
KC – 9-7
Jax –8-8

We beat the Jets on the 4th tie-breaker, KC beats Denver in the AFC West Tie-breaker, Buffalo beats KC on AFC record.

Finish (if SF beats Denver because Jax beat KC)
Buff – 9-7
Jets – 9-7
Jax –9-7
KC – 8-8
Den – 8-8

We beat the Jets on the 4th tie-breaker, Buffalo beats Jax on head to head.


Scenario 2: NEW

This scenario is similar to the first, only in this one, we do not concede the first wild card to Cincy. We concede it to Denver.

Under this scenario, we once again need to win out.

Cincy finishes the season 0-3 (At Indy, At Den, Pitts).

Tonight
Indy over Cincy

Week 16
1:00 – NE over Jacksonville
4:00 – Denver over Cincy
Christmas night – Miami over Jets

Week 17
*Pitts over Cincy

*This is where it gets interesting, we may not actually need this game. This could get confusing.

Assuming Cincy beats to Pittsburgh and finishes 9-7, the race for the last spot would look something like this.

Finish
Buff – 9-7
Cincy – 9-7
Jax – 9-7 or 8-8 (L to NE, and it doesn’t matter about KC. )
Jets – 9-7
KC – 9-7 or 8-8 (W over Oakland, and it doesn’t matter about JAX)

Again, tie-breakers are broken in the division first, therefore we eliminate the Jets based on the 4th tie-breaker.

Then we go to AFC record and Cincy and Buffalo would finish 7-5, while the others would not and thus be eliminated.

Buffalo and Cincy would go to the 4th wild card tiebreaker, which is Strength of victory. As is stands right now, if my plan plays out, The teams we beat have 62 wins and the teams Cincy beat have 57 wins. So as of now, we would have the tie-breaker and would get the spot. Those numbers will change in the last 2 weeks. If we did manage to tie in that 4th tie-breaker it would go to strength of schedule and we would also win that one. So Cincy would have to have a 6 point swing in Strength of victory over the last 2 weeks of the season.

Now if Cincy does lose to Pittsburgh in week 17, Strength of victory won’t matter because they’ll finish a game behind us at 8-8. It would look like this:

Finish
Buff – 9-7
Jax – 9-7 or 8-8 (L to NE, and it doesn’t matter about KC. )
Jets – 9-7
KC – 9-7 or 8-8 (W over Oakland, and it doesn’t matter about JAX)
Cincy – 8-8.

Like the scenario above, we beat Jets on 4th tiebreaker, and we’d beat either the Jags or KC on tie-breaker. We’re in the playoffs.

OK, this is fantastic work and explains much of what I couldnt figure out. BUT, you skipped another scenario which could more likely happen which is the Jets taking one of the other wild cards. How do we get the other one in that case? I say this because the Jets have the easiest schedule throughout the rest of the games.

[Sportsuser101]

:confused:

So you're saying that I have to root for Miami and New England? Can't I just root against the Jets and the Jaguars?

[The_Philster]

:confused:

So you're saying that I have to root for Miami and New England? Can't I just root against the Jets and the Jaguars?
I don't see why not :up:

That's all I'm doing :idunno:

[Forward_Lateral]

Don't we only need the Jags to lose once? That would give them 7 losses, and Buffalo would beat them out because of head to head.

[Patrick76777]

OK, this is fantastic work and explains much of what I couldnt figure out. BUT, you skipped another scenario which could more likely happen which is the Jets taking one of the other wild cards. How do we get the other one in that case? I say this because the Jets have the easiest schedule throughout the rest of the games.


The reason it's tough is because Cincy and Denver play each other.

Let me do this off the top of my head.

If you concede the 5th spot to the Jets, you'd need Denver to go 1-1 and Cincy to go 1-2.

You'd also need KC to go 2-0 in order to tie Denver and beat them on the AFC West tie-breaker.

Jets finish 10-6
Buffalo 9-7
Denver 9-7
cincy 9-7
KC 9-7
Jax 8-8

So I think you're right.

Tonight
Indy over Cincy

Week 16
KC over Oakland
Cincy over Denver
NE over Jax

Week 17
KC over Jax
Pitts over Cincy.


I think that would get us in.

[kernowboy]

It would be great but even a miss leaves it a much better season than we could have hoped for

[BillsOwnAll]

what if cincy wins tongiht its still possible they just need to go 1-2.

[Devin]

**Update**



Nothing has dramatically changed with respect to my previous playoff tiebreaker scenarios posted early last week.

With Kansas City and Jacksonville losing, the Bills are now deadlocked with the Chiefs (7-7) and a game back of the Jaguars with two games to play. And the Jags have to go to New England and to Kansas City (tough place to play). They've got to drop one of those games. Fred Taylor also suffered a hamstring injury.

Pittsburgh winning makes them 7-7, but they can't beat the Bills in conference record provided both teams finish 9-7 so they're not a factor if Buffalo wins out.

The Jets won, but that's not a big deal. The Bills really need New York to lose to Miami on Christmas night this coming week. Then they can beat them on the conference record tiebreaker assuming Buffalo wins out and the Jets also finish 9-7. That game is in Miami by the way.

Miami is eliminated. Tennessee will be eliminated when the Bills beat them this week.

The big game is Monday night Cincy at Indy. Root for the Colts. The Bills really need Cincy to lose that one to have a chance at being even on the common opponents tiebreaker. If they both finish 9-7 and one of Cincy's two losses still needed is to Indy, that would force it to strength of victory tiebreaker. The Bills and Bengals are tied in that category as well with an idential .462 strength of victory. As I understand it that number is subject to change based on how their remaining opponents finish up. But let's for fun say it stays the same to force the strength of schedule tiebreaker, Buffalo would win that tiebreaker with a better strength of schedule.

Denver won and that's not good because the Bills would lose to Denver on common opponents tiebreaker.


via Chris Brown

http://buffalobills.com/blog/index.jsp?blogger_id=1

[Mitchy moo]

**Update**



via Chris Brown

http://buffalobills.com/blog/index.jsp?blogger_id=1

Gotta love this:

"Tennessee will be eliminated when the Bills beat them this week.":jam:

[ShadowHawk7]

Please Payton, in payment for all those awful TV commercials and for the perfect situation that you're in at Indy, please win today.

[The_Philster]

Gotta love this:

"Tennessee will be eliminated when the Bills beat them this week.":jam:
yeah...notice he used the word "when" and not "if" just like we should all be doing

[X-Era]

The reason it's tough is because Cincy and Denver play each other.

Let me do this off the top of my head.

If you concede the 5th spot to the Jets, you'd need Denver to go 1-1 and Cincy to go 1-2.

You'd also need KC to go 2-0 in order to tie Denver and beat them on the AFC West tie-breaker.

Jets finish 10-6
Buffalo 9-7
Denver 9-7
cincy 9-7
KC 9-7
Jax 8-8

So I think you're right.

Tonight
Indy over Cincy

Week 16
KC over Oakland
Cincy over Denver
NE over Jax

Week 17
KC over Jax
Pitts over Cincy.


I think that would get us in.

Thanks, I guess my point, that you elaborated on, is that a Miami win against the Jets is NOT a must.

Cinncy vs. Denv and Pitt is by NO means given wins by Cinnci. In fact, I like the chances of Cinncy losing to Indy and one of those 2 more than the Jets losing to Miami even in Miami.

Yes, I will admit to making a mistake here for a minute, I actually rooted for the Bills to get Harrington.

So now Im rooting for Harrington to be pissed that he stunk it up vs. us and light up the Jests.

[Mr. Cynical]

Week 17

SF over Den


Any scenario that involves this happening ain't gonna happen.

[Mitchy moo]

And if Cincy losses tonight and we go with Scenario 2, we could very well be in a spot where we won't need week 17 help.

One game vs. the Ravens for a spot in the playoffs.

Wow, we have our shot!!

[Typ0]

Thanks, I guess my point, that you elaborated on, is that a Miami win against the Jets is NOT a must.

Cinncy vs. Denv and Pitt is by NO means given wins by Cinnci. In fact, I like the chances of Cinncy losing to Indy and one of those 2 more than the Jets losing to Miami even in Miami.

Yes, I will admit to making a mistake here for a minute, I actually rooted for the Bills to get Harrington.

So now Im rooting for Harrington to be pissed that he stunk it up vs. us and light up the Jests.

I wish that I actually saw the game...but did Harrington suck that bad or did his receivers just constantly drop the ball?

[SABURZFAN]

if only JP hadn't screwed up the detroit game. :shakeno:

[OpIv37]

I wish that I actually saw the game...but did Harrington suck that bad or did his receivers just constantly drop the ball?

both. There were several drops, he got picked the only time he tried to go downfield, and anything beyond 8 yards or so was off target.

[Patrick76777]

Any scenario that involves this happening ain't gonna happen.


There was a HUGE OR before that game.

KC over Jax

OR

SF over Den.

[chernobylwraiths]

If Denver beats Cincy and the Jets beat Miami, are we eliminated?

[Patrick76777]

If Denver beats Cincy and the Jets beat Miami, are we eliminated?


Nope!


If we beat Tennessee, I don't think we can be eliminated this week.

Beat Tennessee and we should be alive regardless of what happens.

[chernobylwraiths]

Nope!


If we beat Tennessee, I don't think we can be eliminated this week.

Beat Tennessee and we should be alive regardless of what happens.

Jets would hold the better division record over us regardless and I thought Denver would hold the better conference record.

I think getting by Tennessee might be hard enough. Right now, they are the hottest team in the NFL.

[Patrick76777]

Jets would hold the better division record over us regardless and I thought Denver would hold the better conference record.

I think getting by Tennessee might be hard enough. Right now, they are the hottest team in the NFL.


We can still beat out Denver if they tie KC.

Ties are broken in the division first. KC at 9-7 would have a better division record and knock out Denver. Then we would beat KC on AFC record.

[TigerJ]

I think I understand finally what you're saying about KC, Patrick. The best chance is clearly for Denver to win out and go to the playoffs as the first wild card seed, and Cincinnati to be eliminated by Pittsburgh in the final week, in addition to Miami beating the Jets and New England beating Jacksonville.

[Patrick76777]

I think I understand finally what you're saying about KC, Patrick. The best chance is clearly for Denver to win out and go to the playoffs as the first wild card seed, and Cincinnati to be eliminated by Pittsburgh in the final week, in addition to Miami beating the Jets and New England beating Jacksonville.


Correct, however because of the 4 tie-breaker, Strength of Victory, we may not actually need Cincy to lose to Pittsburgh.

NE over Jax
Den over Cincy
Miami over Jets

and we win out, we should be in.