I read this on buffalobills.com. Seems interesting. I've posted it on here already, but....
<table class="tborder" id="post714304" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="thead">http://boards.buffalobills.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif 03-14-2008, 11:59 PM <!-- / status icon and date -->
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="alt2" style="padding: 0px;"> <!-- user info --> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="6" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> craigaharrington (http://boards.buffalobills.com/member.php?u=23183) http://boards.buffalobills.com/images/statusicon/user_offline.gif <script type="text/javascript"> vbmenu_register("postmenu_714304", true); </script>
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</td> <td nowrap="nowrap" valign="top"> Join Date: Mar 2006
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</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- / user info --> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="alt1" id="td_post_714304"> <!-- message, attachments, sig --> <!-- icon and title --> http://boards.buffalobills.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Why get a WR in the first round?
<hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Here is an aggregate of the 1st and 2nd round WRs picked over the last five years:
http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/ful...&type=position (http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=Wide+Receivers&type=position)
2007 pick catches TDs name team
1 2 48 4 Calvin Johnson Detroit Lions
1 9 34 2 Ted Ginn Jr. Miami Dolphins
1 23 70 5 Dwayne Bowe Kansas City Chiefs
1 27 0 0 Robert Meachem New Orleans Saints
1 30 20 1 Craig Davis San Diego Chargers
1 32 37 3 Anthony Gonzalez Indianapolis Colts
2 44 31 4 Sidney Rice Minnesota Vikings
2 45 6 0 Dwayne Jarrett Carolina Panthers
2 51 8 0 Steve Smith New York Giants
2006
1 25 49 2 Santonio Holmes Pittsburgh Steelers
2 36 13 3 Chad Jackson New England Patriots
2 44 5 0 Sinorice Moss New York Giants
2 52 45 3 Greg Jennings Green Bay Packers
2005
1 3 32 3 Braylon Edwards Cleveland Browns
1 7 24 2 Troy Williamson Minnesota Vikings
1 10 29 1 Mike Williams Detroit Lions
1 21 36 5 Matt Jones Jacksonville Jaguars
1 22 44 2 Mark Clayton Baltimore Ravens
1 27 29 3 Roddy White Atlanta Falcons
2 35 43 4 Reggie Brown Philadelphia Eagles
2 39 18 0 Mark Bradley Chicago Bears
2 55 15 1 Roscoe Parrish Buffalo Bills
2 58 5 0 Terrence Murphy Green Bay Packers
2 61 3 0 Vincent Jackson San Diego Chargers
2004
1 3 58 8 Larry Fitzgerald Arizona Cardinals
1 7 54 8 Roy Williams Detroit Lions
1 9 27 1 Reggie Williams Jacksonville Jaguars
1 13 48 9 Lee Evans Buffalo Bills
1 15 80 7 Michael Clayton Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1 29 7 0 Michael Jenkins Atlanta Falcons
1 31 7 1 Rashaun Woods San Francisco 49ers
2 50 0 0 Devery Henderson New Orleans Saints
2 54 31 1 Darius Watts Denver Broncos
2 62 47 5 Keary Colbert Carolina Panthers
2003
1 2 22 3 Charles Rogers Detroit Lions
1 3 66 4 Andre Johnson Houston Texans
1 17 35 1 Bryant Johnson Arizona Cardinals
2 44 3 1 Taylor Jacobs Washington Redskins
2 45 16 2 Bethel Johnson New England Patriots
2 54 101 8 Anquan Boldin Arizona Cardinals
2 60 18 4 Tyrone Calico Tennessee Titans
In the first year,
1st round picks averaged 37 catches (37.2)
2nd round picks averaged 22 catches (22.7)
1st round picks averaged 3 TDs (3.3)
2nd round picks averaged 2 TDs (2.0)
If you take Anquan Boldin out (clearly an anomaly among 2nd round picks)
2nd round picks averaged 18 catches (18.1)
2nd round picks averaged 2 TDs (1.6)
Here's the list of 1st rounders
Calvin Johnson
Charles Rogers
Braylon Edwards
Larry Fitzgerald
Andre Johnson
Troy Williamson
Roy Williams
Ted Ginn Jr.
Reggie Williams
Mike Williams
Lee Evans
Michael Clayton
Bryant Johnson
Matt Jones
Mark Clayton
Dwayne Bowe
Santonio Holmes
Robert Meachem
Roddy White
Michael Jenkins
Craig Davis
Rashaun Woods
Anthony Gonzalez
and 2nd rounders
Reggie Brown
Chad Jackson
Mark Bradley
Sidney Rice
Sinorice Moss
Taylor Jacobs
Dwayne Jarrett
Bethel Johnson
Devery Henderson
Steve Smith
Greg Jennings
Darius Watts
Anquan Boldin
Roscoe Parrish
Terrence Murphy
Tyrone Calico
Vincent Jackson
Keary Colbert
The first round selections have not only a dramatic propensity to still be in the league, but dominate the 2nd round picks in quantity of pro bowl selections and starting positions.
With an open need at #2 receiver, it seems clear that a 2nd round pick is unlikely to get the job done in year 1 and beyond. We have two 2nd round receivers (Parrish, Reed) and both are clearly not #2 material.
We pick at #11, but recent history has shown that 1st year results do not show the first receiver taken as clearly the superior to the rest of the first round as practical thinking would infer.
If we pick a WR in round 2 instead of 1, be prepared for Josh Reed to get a lot of snaps at #2.
The best overall performance for a rookie receiver in the last 5 years has been an average of pick 17 (17.4)
http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/fea...aluechart.html (http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/features/valuechart.html)
The value of trading down from pick 11 to pick 17 is (1250-950) 300 points or the 60th pick (near bottom quarter of the 2nd round)
So, logically-speaking, it is in the best interest of the Bills to trade down, pick the best WR available and pick up the extra 2nd. (of course you need to find a trade partner)
The cost of trading our 2nd up to pick 17 would be (950-480) 470 points or roughly-speaking our 2nd this year and next.</td></tr></tbody></table>