Are fans at all capable of judging talent and ability?

[YardRat]

From the Wanny DC thread...


Well then, how does a run of the mill fan really know anything? Are they in the team meetings trying to teach the 46 or the Tampa 2? Are they able to see the progression of a player, when he should be ****canned or when he should be kept?

Fans go on results. When they can't see success on the field, they complain. Why? Because they don't get their warm fuzzy on Sunday if their team loses.

This guy or that guy fcked up and the fan didn't get what he paid for. Boo ****ing hoo.

Losers and winners are judged by people that never had the balls to put on a jockstrap.

I weep for them, they don't even have a remote notion what it takes to get to that level.

Do we have any ability to accurately observe, assess and report any kind of judgement on who is a good player and who isn't? If a coach is doing a good job or not? Who we should draft? Who we should be playing in the line-up? How we should be playing (style/scheme, etc)?

Or...do we not have a clue and should we just take for granted that only the individuals directly involved in the game know what they are doing, because after all they are the ones holding the titles and collecting paychecks?

[coastal]

Of course some of us do...

Moonie hasn't killed anything recently so he's a little cantankerous.

[BillsOverDolphins]

Yes, you can pretty much tell who is garbage and who isn't 90% of the time. Also, results speak for themselves.

- - - Updated - - -

"Moonie" doesn't believe his convictions, either...as I exposed in the other thread.

He's weak like that.

[Raptor]

Yes they can

and as for this

Losers and winners are judged by people that never had the balls to put on a jockstrap.

I weep for them, they don't even have a remote notion what it takes to get to that level.

This is always the chest thump of the clueless on this topic. There is a BIG difference between being talented at sports and being able to identify talent. Notice the vast majority best GM's and coaches in the league are guys who never played the sport or never played it at a high level

[OpIv37]

Performance dictates competence, not title. Just because someone has a clipboard and their name on some NFL team's org chart doesn't mean they know what they're doing. Need a few examples? Just look at pretty much every coach, coordinator and FO personnel the Bills have had in the past decade.

Then go back and read the posts on this forum. Of course, not every fan is right every time, and some have much better track records than others, but there have been countless times when the fans on this board have been right where the so-called "professionals" turned out to be wrong. A few key examples that jump right out at me: Maybin over Orakpo and Jauron being a bad hire from day 1.

[Raptor]

Performance dictates competence, not title. Just because someone has a clipboard and their name on some NFL team's org chart doesn't mean they know what they're doing. Need a few examples? Just look at pretty much every coach, coordinator and FO personnel the Bills have had in the past decade.

Then go back and read the posts on this forum. Of course, not every fan is right every time, and some have much better track records than others, but there have been countless times when the fans on this board have been right where the so-called "professionals" turned out to be wrong. A few key examples that jump right out at me: Maybin over Orakpo and Jauron being a bad hire from day 1.

Another example, Jeremy Green

Green at one point was in the front office for the Browns and a scout for nearly a decade, he was eventually fired. Then went to ESPN as an analyst and eventually fired from there after he was arrested for Child porn

He got his job for no other reason then he was Dennis Greens son. For those of you who remember him you know he was one of the worst analyst of football that there has ever been. Seriously no one was wrong more than Green on everything football. So this whole notion of "well he works for an NFL team, so he automatically knows more" is complete and utter nonsense

[Meathead]

other fans, no

me, yes

[DraftBoy]

Depends really...with the explosion of the internet and digital media fans have more access than ever before to practices and games. You have countless dedicated draft sites and exponentially more recruiting sites. You know about kids who are going to be drafted 6-7 years before they are even eligible.

Not to mention that yet to be seen melding of how players will be tested.

As for schematic knowledge, its very difficult to know what you're looking at without either having done the homework or played the game. Its just so complicated on the pro level that its hard for most fans to understand. Now there are certainly a select few who do and the access to the new All-22 film will give even more fans the ability to understand and break down the game.

For most though it will remain simply a grasstop level of enjoyment as opposed to wanting to dig down into the grassroots and there are certainly times that I not only respect but envy that mentality.

[pmoon6]

Yes, you can pretty much tell who is garbage and who isn't 90% of the time. Also, results speak for themselves.

- - - Updated - - -

"Moonie" doesn't believe his convictions, either...as I exposed in the other thread.

He's weak like that.Weak are the crybaby ***** fans that say we will suck before we play one single game.

They really are not fans at all. They are Anti-Fans.

As far as exposing anything, you must be thinking of Friday when you were standing outside a preschool.

[OpIv37]

Weak are the crybaby ***** fans that say we will suck before we play one single game.

They really are not fans at all. They are Anti-Fans.

As far as exposing anything, you must be thinking of Friday when you were standing outside a preschool.

Please explain to me how looking at a team objectively and determining that they aren't very good makes someone any less of a fan.

Being a fan means you WANT the team to win. It doesn't mean you actually think they will win every single game.

This is the kind of thing that really pisses me off. The reality is that you can't mentally handle the fact that the Bills may not be very good, so instead you are trying to discredit the people who are saying so by insulting their fandom. It's immature and unrealistic.

[pmoon6]

Please explain to me how looking at a team objectively and determining that they aren't very good makes someone any less of a fan.

Being a fan means you WANT the team to win. It doesn't mean you actually think they will win every single game.

This is the kind of thing that really pisses me off. The reality is that you can't mentally handle the fact that the Bills may not be very good, so instead you are trying to discredit the people who are saying so by insulting their fandom. It's immature and unrealistic.Alrighty then, let's just all hold hands and chant that the team will not be very good. No need to spend the $200 on Sunday Ticket, there is no reason for optimism.

May I suggest reading "The Power Of Positive Thinking" by Norman Vincent Peale?

I can "mentally handle" almost anything. Getting shot at, taking care of a gravely ill loved one, and even death. So get pissed off all you want, I fart in your general direction.

[OpIv37]

A true fan spends $200 on Sunday Ticket even when there is no reason for optimism, because that's what makes them a fan.

[pmoon6]

A true fan spends $200 on Sunday Ticket even when there is no reason for optimism, because that's what makes them a fan.Good to know. I've had it for 13 years. Before that I went to a Houston sports bar every Sunday for 11. It was tough living out of town before that so I missed the Knox/Stephenson/Bullough years except what I read in the papers It was great when I still lived there, going to 2 or three games a year and actually seeing us win back to back AFL Championships on the TV.

Are you impressed yet?

[Johnny Bugmenot]

Fans are idiots.

There is no reason for optimism for this team. It's the only team yet to make the playoffs ONCE this millennium. Its offense is mediocre, the O-line makes Demetrius Bell look disciplined in comparison, its defense is led by a bunch of guys who spend more time on injured reserve than they do on the field (and that includes our nine-figure prized free agent acquisition), the linebackers flat-out suck, the cornerbacks are too young to compete, its special teamers are too old, and it plays in a stadium that not only prevents them from performing at its highest level with its exposure to the weather, but can't draw enough paying fans to compete. They can't get a decent quarterback, and they won't develop their own from scratch. What's their strong point? Running back? Running backs are a dime a dozen and as Corey Dillon knows, even bad teams can have good running backs if the rest of the team stinks.

Tell me, oh great fan, where is the room for optimism? Tell me why Erie County should even consider renewing the lease on that stadium, much less invest $200 million into renovating it without even making any sort of improvements that it really needs, with as much dysfunction is it has? This isn't a real NFL team. NFL teams make the playoffs once in a while. Heck, this team would struggle in the UFL.

[pmoon6]

Fans are idiots.

There is no reason for optimism for this team. It's the only team yet to make the playoffs ONCE this millennium. Its offense is mediocre, the O-line makes Demetrius Bell look disciplined in comparison, its defense is led by a bunch of guys who spend more time on injured reserve than they do on the field (and that includes our nine-figure prized free agent acquisition), the linebackers flat-out suck, the cornerbacks are too young to compete, its special teamers are too old, and it plays in a stadium that not only prevents them from performing at its highest level with its exposure to the weather, but can't draw enough paying fans to compete. They can't get a decent quarterback, and they won't develop their own from scratch. What's their strong point? Running back? Running backs are a dime a dozen and as Corey Dillon knows, even bad teams can have good running backs if the rest of the team stinks.

Tell me, oh great fan, where is the room for optimism? Tell me why Erie County should even consider renewing the lease on that stadium, much less invest $200 million into renovating it without even making any sort of improvements that it really needs, with as much dysfunction is it has? This isn't a real NFL team. NFL teams make the playoffs once in a while. Heck, this team would struggle in the UFL.:rofl: I can give you a suicide assist if you like.

[Pinkerton Security]

The way I see it is that most fans see facts as either black or white - "we are the best team ever" or "we suck"...those are the only two options. This is a problem, and I see it on this board every single day.

[jimmifli]

I think Moneyball provided a great example of fans knowing more than knowledgable baseball people. Most people make terrible decisions because they make them based on emotions and without rigor. Fans are no exception, although neither are the people working in the front office of major sports teams.

Fans that do a rigorous analysis and avoid the emotional traps are capable of making better decisions, provided their access to information is sufficient. Conversely it can be VERY difficult for front office people to remove emotions from their decision criteria. In baseball there is so much data, it's much easier to rely on the data, in football with only 16 games the sample size is often too low to draw conclusions.

[justasportsfan]

Of course we can. We call rookies busts or HOF material before we even draft them. We're that good. I had Newton being the combination Peyton Manning and Michael Vick :liar:

[GingerP]

In general, I don't think fans have near the idea they think they do. It is just hard to tell from the outside, there is too much information we don't know. Fans aren't at practice, they aren't privy to the game-plan or even players responsibility on a given play. All we see is the result, not all that goes into it.

There is no doubt a lot of fans think they can judge who is good or not. All you have to do is look at how much money is made by people taking bets on the games.

[BillsOverDolphins]

Weak are the crybaby ***** fans that say we will suck before we play one single game.

They really are not fans at all. They are Anti-Fans.

As far as exposing anything, you must be thinking of Friday when you were standing outside a preschool.

Yeah, u said the same nonsensical happy horsesh1t before, and nobody cared either.

I have the balls to stick to my convictions (bills not making the playoffs), while you suffer uterine cramps trying to backpedal youe way out of this bet.

You don't believe the team can do it, or you wouldve thrown your greenbacks dow by now.

You now have 2 options:

1. Take the bet like a man
2. Admit you were lying the entire time with false bravado

There is no 3 choice.

[Generalissimus Gibby]

Weak are the crybaby ***** fans that say we will suck before we play one single game.

They really are not fans at all. They are Anti-Fans.

As far as exposing anything, you must be thinking of Friday when you were standing outside a preschool.

no no no, they are not anti-fans, they are doom and gloomers. I don't feel like creating another user name to sneak back into the old neighborhood to get that thread out, but rememember there are several different groups of fans.

1) Homers, the Bills could go 16 and 0 and win the superbowl and the Bills are great, if the Bills go 0-16 these people find something good in it and see if a single player did something positive.

2) The realists, They love the team, but are cautious about early success and also don't overreact to losses in the preseason unless someone crucial gets injured

3) The Doomsdayers, These are sad people. They actually love their team but they are just so used to hardship and tragedy that they sound like anti-fans. However, they are fans but just extremely pessimistic. Their favorite pass-time is to measure their children for their coffins before proceeding to go out to the cemetery to listen to game. Every time they watch the Bills, its as painful for them as finding out a family member, love interest, or good friend died. They love the Bills but are depressed after 10 years of losing

4) Narcacistic Masturbators, aka the anti-fans: These people stroke themselves with every word they write. They believe that anything they write comes from God himself, and then they realize that they are greater than God and stroke some more. They are in love with themselves and being right. If the Bills won the Superbowl and didn't do it their way they'd still be unhappy. However, if the Bills went 0-16 and did everything their way they'd be happy on some level

5) Trolls, not gonna talk about em don't want to feed them

[Mr. Pink]

The sad part is numerous fans on this board could have done a better job with this roster and coaching staff than the allegedly paid "professionals" have done.

[DraftBoy]

I think Moneyball provided a great example of fans knowing more than knowledgable baseball people. Most people make terrible decisions because they make them based on emotions and without rigor. Fans are no exception, although neither are the people working in the front office of major sports teams.

Fans that do a rigorous analysis and avoid the emotional traps are capable of making better decisions, provided their access to information is sufficient. Conversely it can be VERY difficult for front office people to remove emotions from their decision criteria. In baseball there is so much data, it's much easier to rely on the data, in football with only 16 games the sample size is often too low to draw conclusions.

Id argue the opposite of this but Im anti-stat movement so I have a bias.

[Extremebillsfan247]

A fan has 2 things to go by, intuition and common sense. It's amazing what you could learn about a team, it's tendencies, and players on it simply by applying these simple intangible tools. We all suffer from a little imperfection called human error. It doesn't mean we can't figure it out, we just may not get it right all the time. JMO

[YardRat]

I've been right, and I've been wrong. Pretty sure that will continue until I die as a fan, but I will keep on offering up my opinion. It's true as fans we aren't on the inside as far as schemes, responsibilities, reads, etc...nor do we get the benefit of watching these guys day-in and day-out, how they practice, how they pick things up, how much they actually know about what they're supposed to do and when.

[k-oneputt]

It's really not that freaking hard.
If a fan watches college football and follows the pro game he came to these conclusions;

- no Levy as a GM
-no Jauron
-Orakapo over Maybin. Especially when Maybin was smaller then many NFL wr's.
-Cody over Troup
- SEC over Sunbelt.
-No Modrak and his band of idiots with their small school diamond in the rough philosphy

All that from the "smart" front office people led us to a dcade of failure.

So yes some fans are capable of building a better team then those clowns.

How can that even be questioned ?????? We proved it right here for the last ten years.

[PromoTheRobot]

Fans can't find their own asses with both hands.

PTR

[OpIv37]

A fan has 2 things to go by, intuition and common sense. It's amazing what you could learn about a team, it's tendencies, and players on it simply by applying these simple intangible tools. We all suffer from a little imperfection called human error. It doesn't mean we can't figure it out, we just may not get it right all the time. JMO

I think the problem here is the assumption by pmoon6 that the fan is always wrong because he's a fan and the people that work for the team are always right because they work for the team.

Obviously, fans have varying degrees of football knowledge and common sense, and some team employees are better than others. But this board has proven time and time again that fans can be right while coaches/GMs/owners/FO personnel etc are wrong.

It's one thing to find a particular fan to be lacking in football knowledge because of things he's said or done in the past, but it's entirely different to simply write off someone's opinion because they're "just a fan" and don't work for the team. That's just not realistic.

[k-oneputt]

Yeah the "experts" drafted a safety of all positions over Ngata.

We could go on all day with the Bills' f-ups over the last ten years.

Ngata over Whitner wasn't even hard, even for a fan, but the Bills seemed to screw that one up also.

[justasportsfan]

but it's entirely different to simply write off someone's opinion because they're "just a fan" and don't work for the team. That's just not realistic.
I agree :biggrin:

[SABURZFAN]

Realists can but the Lickers can't.

[pmoon6]

The sad part is numerous fans on this board could have done a better job with this roster and coaching staff than the allegedly paid "professionals" have done.Apply for the job then.

[pmoon6]

I think the problem here is the assumption by pmoon6 that the fan is always wrong because he's a fan and the people that work for the team are always right because they work for the team.

Obviously, fans have varying degrees of football knowledge and common sense, and some team employees are better than others. But this board has proven time and time again that fans can be right while coaches/GMs/owners/FO personnel etc are wrong.

It's one thing to find a particular fan to be lacking in football knowledge because of things he's said or done in the past, but it's entirely different to simply write off someone's opinion because they're "just a fan" and don't work for go root for another team.the team. That's just not realistic.I think the problem is with fans, like yourself.

If you are really rational, the move would be to root for another team. After all, it's just Sunday entertainment. You get with your friends, have a party with chicken wings, crab cakes and 5 layer dip and you watch a couple of football games. If you try to be an expert with little afcts, you look like an idiot.

Welcome to world of Adam Shefter and Rich Eisen, although they are more informed than you.

[BillsOverDolphins]

pmoon, I think we got off on the wrong foot. I'll try to be nicer if you try to have decent takes.

Deal?

[stuckincincy]

From the Wanny DC thread...



Do we have any ability to accurately observe, assess and report any kind of judgement on who is a good player and who isn't? If a coach is doing a good job or not? Who we should draft? Who we should be playing in the line-up? How we should be playing (style/scheme, etc)?

Or...do we not have a clue and should we just take for granted that only the individuals directly involved in the game know what they are doing, because after all they are the ones holding the titles and collecting paychecks?

Fans who have watched for years and years get a feeling. They sense who is trying, who is not. Football is but a 4 act play, that has been running for over a hundred years, with this or that variation. You get a feeling during a game. I watch, perhaps pay some attention to this one or that, but I pick up the nuance. Most do. The ESPN columnist Greg Esterbrook (TMQ) often uses the phrase "game over."

There are countless pundits, some leaning on stats, some studying the nuts and bolts, some simply talk of the show biz aspect - which is what pro football is, and so forth.

The fans have a good idea about talent, IMO. They also detect bum coaching. I'll harp on about CIN - former OC Bob Bratkowski was a standing joke for years. A 5 year old knew that the 1st play was deep hand off left. Most all OCs panic if they are down 7 come the 3rd quarter. Current DC Zimmer is decent, but you can rely on him to call an all-out blitz at a critical time, when sense says covering the sideline routes is the ticket. The biz drips with ego.

Nobody hires football folks to run corporations. They live in a narrow, well-known world, for years and years. Get job after job in their tiny world. Same for the paid press that covers it.

I happen to think that there are a lot of fans who are very astute.

[pmoon6]

pmoon, I think we got off on the wrong foot. I'll try to be nicer if you try to have decent takes.

Deal?Why? I like a good back and forth.

That said, this is only entertainment also. I don't take it personally. You can be nice or nasty, I don't have a problem with either.

At any rate, if the decision is between war and peace, then I chose peace.

So says Ten Bears.

[Mr. Pink]

Apply for the job then.

I love this response. Because it would be that easy right?

I mean just because it was that easy to not draft Donte Whitner over Ngata or not draft Losman or move up to take Mangold not McCargo or any other poor personnel decision we've made the past decade doesn't mean it's that easy to get the job.

And before you give the hindsight is 20/20 spiel, many posters on this board at the time of these moves thought WTF and voiced their displeasure over them meanwhile giving better options.

What's sad is that us fans can see these things while the paid professionals can not.

[mjt328]

Are fans capable of judging talent? Of course they are.

A few years ago, my wife barely even knew the rules for football - much less the players. Yet within 2 quarters of watching her first Bills game with me, she had made the determination that JP Losman sucked and needed to be replaced. I did nothing to prompt her to form this opinion (at the time, I was still holding out hope he would develop into a decent starter). She formed that opinion on her own, based on watching his pathetic play. Yet it took Buffalo's front office years to come to the same conclusion.

Even the most basic football fans can tell that guys like Aaron Rogers, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning are loaded with talent - based on things such as accuracy, consistency, arm strength and overall performance. So why can't the same people objectively look at someone like Ryan Fitzpatrick and form an educated opinion on his skills as a quarterback? After 7-8 years in the league, he still struggles with deep ball accuracy, decision making and consistency in his throws.


With that said, not every position is as easy to judge (from a fan's perspective) as quarterback.
Defensive backs are almost impossible to evaluate from a typical television view.

And of course, not every fan puts in the same amount of effort in evaluating players.

[Ingtar33]

From the Wanny DC thread...



Do we have any ability to accurately observe, assess and report any kind of judgement on who is a good player and who isn't? If a coach is doing a good job or not? Who we should draft? Who we should be playing in the line-up? How we should be playing (style/scheme, etc)?

Or...do we not have a clue and should we just take for granted that only the individuals directly involved in the game know what they are doing, because after all they are the ones holding the titles and collecting paychecks?


some have a pretty good feel. some don't

Trick is, the ones who have a good feel, sometimes get lost in the wash... particularly when they're in agreement with the ones who don't know what they're talking about.

[X-Era]

Yeah the "experts" drafted a safety of all positions over Ngata.

We could go on all day with the Bills' f-ups over the last ten years.

Ngata over Whitner wasn't even hard, even for a fan, but the Bills seemed to screw that one up also.And how many fan screw up's has there been?

I think you can evaluate individual play to some degree and identify break away speed, ability to catch the ball, ability to tackle just as examples.