Bills' big investment in EJ Manuel and Sammy Watkins not paying early returns

[Fletch]

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/142458/bills-investment-in-manuel-watkins-not-paying-early-returns

Not what a lot of you want to hear but they're the facts.

HOUSTON -- You can blame quarterback EJ Manuel (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/15803/ej-manuel?ex_cid=null). You can blame his receivers. You can blame his offensive line.

No matter whose fault it is, the woefully inconsistent play of the Buffalo Bills (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/buf/buffalo-bills?ex_cid=null)' passing game should prompt serious questions after Sunday's 23-17 loss (http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=400554212) to the Houston Texans (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/hou/houston-texans?ex_cid=null).

The Bills spent three first-round picks to acquire Manuel and top receiver Sammy Watkins (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/16725/sammy-watkins?ex_cid=null). Given that sort of investment, those two players should be among the team's strengths. Instead, they've been Buffalo's greatest weaknesses through the first quarter of the season.

Besides his eight-catch, 117-yard outing in Week 2, Watkins has been disappointing. His first two targets Sunday were dropped. One week ago, Watkins admitted he "took a play off" when he was unable to catch an accurate Manuel pass late in a loss to San Diego.

Manuel had another characteristically underwhelming game Sunday, when he averaged 3.2 yards per pass attempt before an 80-yard touchdown heave to Mike Williams (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13489/mike-williams?ex_cid=null). It was a throw ex-Bills Ryan Fitzpatrick (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/8664/ryan-fitzpatrick?ex_cid=null), Trent Edwards or even J.P. Losman could have made. It was a massive blunder on the Texans' part -- not the sort of play that separates a first-round draft pick such as Manuel from his predecessors.

Then there was an offensive line that could have linked arms, formed a wall and still fail to block J.J. Watt (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13979/jj-watt). The NFL's premier defensive player could not be stopped Sunday. He reached Manuel for nine quarterback hits, an eye-opening stat that became a side note to Watt's 80-yard interception return for a touchdown that turned the tide of the game in the third quarter.

"You got young receivers, a second-year quarterback, and you got some [young] guys on the line," Bills coach Doug Marrone said of his team. "They have to grow, and they have to grow fast."

He's right. The Bills can't afford to wait until next season to see how Manuel matures or until 2016 to watch Watkins flourish by his third season. They paid a high price for both of those players and are leaning on both of them now. This is the path the Bills have chosen.

The Bills traded away their first-round pick next season to add Watkins, they spent a second-round pick last season on Robert Woods (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/15880/robert-woods?ex_cid=null), and they shipped out a sixth-round pick for the troubled Williams. Yet Manuel threw a combined 27 times to his top three receivers Sunday and completed only nine of those passes.

If you hear an echo, that's because Manuel posted a 33 percent completion rate, identical to his receivers' completion percentage in the past week's loss, when they connected on just seven of his 21 passes to the trio of Watkins, Woods and Williams.

Their collective struggles essentially wasted what was a respectable defensive effort. The Bills won the turnover battle -- they forced two interceptions and one fumble -- and held the Texans to 37 rushing yards.

Cornerback Leodis McKelvin (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/11245/leodis-mckelvin?ex_cid=null), who came away with an acrobatic interception in the second quarter, could only push the defense to do better after they won the turnover battle but lost the game.

"When you win the turnover battle, it's a must win," he said. "You can look at the percentages. ... Once you get two or more turnovers, you're supposed to win the game. We have to do a better of going out there, situational football, make sure we get off the field when we need to. We need to get off the field [and] give the offense more chances to make plays."

The offense had plenty of chances to make plays Sunday. It didn't. And on the whole this season, it hasn't -- even though Fred Jackson (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/10195/fred-jackson?ex_cid=null) and C.J. Spiller (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13203/cj-spiller) have done their share.

"I think the backs are running well," Marrone said. "I think that when we get into games where we throw as much as we did, that gets us in trouble."

That's accurate, but it shouldn't be the case. Given the Bills' investment in Manuel and Watkins, they've both dropped the ball.

- - - Updated - - -


The Bills traded away their first-round pick next season to add Watkins, they spent a second-round pick last season on Robert Woods (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/15880/robert-woods?ex_cid=null), and they shipped out a sixth-round pick for the troubled Williams. Yet Manuel threw a combined 27 times to his top three receivers Sunday and completed only nine of those passes.

If you hear an echo, that's because Manuel posted a 33 percent completion rate, identical to his receivers' completion percentage in the past week's loss, when they connected on just seven of his 21 passes to the trio of Watkins, Woods and Williams.

Presumably Orton corrects that.

[better days]

Maybe that is the reason Orton is starting in Detroit?

[Fletch]

Maybe, but that still doesn't explain why Watkins YPR is so low. He's currently ranked 69th in the NFL in YPR.

If I had come on here and predicted that a month ago man the ****storm that would have resulted.

Let's just face it, he's first of all got a lot bigger hill to climb than most here thought, and secondly his skills clearly are not transferring to the NFL like everyone that thought he was this elite WR said they would.

[Downinfloflo]

Sammy is fine, The guy throwing the ball to him is not.

Unless you're 6'6 and a athletic freak like megatron you won't be catching many passes from E.J Manuel.

[stuckincincy]

Maybe, but that still doesn't explain why Watkins YPR is so low. He's currently ranked 69th in the NFL in YPR.

If I had come on here and predicted that a month ago man the ****storm that would have resulted.

Let's just face it, he's first of all got a lot bigger hill to climb than most here thought, and secondly his skills clearly are not transferring to the NFL like everyone that thought he was this elite WR said they would.

Manual has something to do with Watkin's numbers. It's pretty widespread, the feeling that BUF "overpaid." But it's only 4 games in. Time to stop banging the drum for the moment, perhaps, and see what happens the next 12?

[Fletch]

Sammy is fine, The guy throwing the ball to him is not.

Unless you're 6'6 and a athletic freak like megatron you won't be catching many passes from E.J Manuel.

I'm talking about when he gets the ball. Review his plays. He was supposed to have speed that is rare. Seriously, are you seeing it at this level? I'm not, sorry, but I'm just not. Sure, he's fast, but he's not so blazing fast that he's making anything even coming close to what most said and expected.

Orton should help with the downfield balls, but still, if Watkins doesn't start doing more after the catch then he isn't living up to his draft hype. It is as simple as that. Remember, that's specificically why Whaley drafted him, because a simple 2-yard lob was supposed to usually result in something much longer. It hasn't happened even when he gets the ball.

The piece also mentioned something like 6 drops. I'd like to see a validation of that, but if that's true and if he keeps that up he'll have 24 by year's end, a huge number of drops that would lead the league. Either way he's near the top for dropped passes.

We'll see here over the next few weeks.



Manual has something to do with Watkin's numbers. It's pretty widespread, the feeling that BUF "overpaid." But it's only 4 games in. Time to stop banging the drum for the moment, perhaps, and see what happens the next 12?


Sammy is fine, The guy throwing the ball to him is not.

Unless you're 6'6 and a athletic freak like megatron you won't be catching many passes from E.J Manuel.

Watkins wasn't drafted like that to be fine, he was drafted like that because everyone raved that he was elite and a rare receiving talent. Sorry, but there isn't anyone besides on a Bills forum that's going to claim that he's playing anywhere near an elite level right now.

And yes, it was expected instantly and not only despite Manuel's shortcomings, but in with them in mind. With all of the other receiving skills in place speed and agility takes no adjustment to the NFL.

[DesertFox24]

I am not worried about Sammy.

Additionally the Manual experiment failed, I do think it was too early to pull the plug but kudos to Marrone for doing it. He has been around some good QBs in his time and if does not think EJ has it then so be it.

That being said we will be drafting a qb, trading for one, or signing one in FA this offseason.

I believe Mallett, Sanchez are the young ones that will be available that the bills will probably look at. Maybe Matt Cassell. This is of course to compete with Orton.

[HHURRICANE]

Sammy is fine, The guy throwing the ball to him is not.

Unless you're 6'6 and a athletic freak like megatron you won't be catching many passes from E.J Manuel.

We have this other guy Williams, a vet, and Woods, and Chandler, etc.

Your right on here....this not on Watkins. Plus can you blame Watkins for backing off on balls after watching Goodwin and Woods almost being decapitated.

Manuel looks awful, plain and simple. The Bills are pretty good at coaching the talent out of just about anyone.

What are these floating passes? It's painful.

[imbondz]

I hate to read this:

Besides his eight-catch, 117-yard outing in Week 2, Watkins has been disappointing. His first two targets Sunday were dropped. One week ago, Watkins admitted he "took a play off" when he was unable to catch an accurate Manuel pass late in a loss to San Diego.

[Dr. Who]

So did Randy Moss. Pretty much every receiver does, though they don't all admit it.
Sammy will be a superior player in the NFL.

[better days]

I hate to read this:

Besides his eight-catch, 117-yard outing in Week 2, Watkins has been disappointing. His first two targets Sunday were dropped. One week ago, Watkins admitted he "took a play off" when he was unable to catch an accurate Manuel pass late in a loss to San Diego.

After all the Circus catches Sammy made in the off season, it gives one pause.

Did Sammy & the other receivers hands turn to stone or are they sick & tired of the poor passes EJ has been throwing them?

Maybe this is the reason Marrone benched EJ, he knew the receivers were ready to mutiny.

[feldspar]

This article takes certain liberties to make a point. For example, the Bills did not give up a lot to get EJ Manuel; in fact, they got Kiko Alonso in the deal after they traded down. I don't think too many Bills fans would be crying into their sleeves at this point if the Bills picked Kiko Alonso at #8 last year...but they got Kiko AND Manuel with basically the same pick. There is no waste there that I can see today, whether Kiko got hurt or not. THAT'S the guy you want, and I'll thump my chest about how much I liked that guy when he was picked. I expressed that opinion here, and look it up if you have no life.

The wide receiver position is completely dependent on the quarterback position.

4 games have been played. If you want to look at stats alone, then you are not aware of how things work. If you want to focus on TWO dropped passes, then you are an idiot. Look at the wide receivers in Denver, and compare their stats before and after Peyton Manning got there. I mean you might think that these guys suck if you just looked at their stats before Manning. The he turned around and set records with these guys. There is no question what the logical conclusion is. It's as plain as day.

I'm pretty sure that the young Bills WRs don't really like Manuel being the Bills QB that much, no matter what they publicly profess. He's been hurting their careers and could cost them some serious bling-bling if the current trend would continue.

[Fletch]

So did Randy Moss. Pretty much every receiver does, though they don't all admit it.
Sammy will be a superior player in the NFL.

He was supposed to be a superior player immediately according to just about everyone, one of those rare talents that we only see every ten years.

Hasn't come close to happening. To suggest that he's been dogging it because of Manuel wouldn't say much for his professionalism. I don't think that's the case.

Watkins should be a fine WR but the expectations of him were outrageous given his play at Clemson.

[Ginger Vitis]

according to just about everyone, one of those rare talents that we only see every ten years.



the lies from you just keep coming

[BillsOverDolphins]

yellow journalism, sullying Sammy's name with the likes of that born loser

[YardRat]

Sammy will be just fine, and unless he eventually makes the HOF (or the Bills win a Super Bowl and he has a big game/playoffs) the debate over whether or not he was worth the move will rage on.

It's only been four games, on a very young team, with spotty (at best) play from the QB position.

Sometimes you have to wait for the big picture to develop.

[Don't Panic]

To be fair, we got Manuel, Alonso and Watkins for those three picks. Everyone that wants bash Whaley for his two potential blunders (rightfully) needs to also give credit for the Alonso pick up.

[DraftBoy]

Not really sure how anybody can call Watkins a disappointment as of right now.

[Fletch]

http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Fletch http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php?p=4001057#post4001057)

according to just about everyone, one of those rare talents that we only see every ten years.


the lies from you just keep coming

Oh please. And the dishonesty from you keeps spewing forth.

Give me a break, all anyone was saying about Watkins was about what a rare exceptional talent he was. If you can't even come clean on that there's no sense in even responding to me.

From CBS Sports:


A more dynamic athlete than former teammate and Houston Texans' 2013 first round pick DeAndre Hopkins, Watkins caught his passes on a variety of routes, including quick screens to take advantage of his ability to make defenders miss in close quarters, deep passes due to his acceleration and jump balls to highlight his leaping ability and hand-eye coordination.


Every fan of the sport knows that there is a difference between timed speed and football speed. Football is rarely a game of straight-lines, making fluidity and general athleticism much more critical than just a 40-yard dash time. In much this same way, some receivers possess a natural ability to pluck the ball, tuck it away and accelerate in one smooth motion that makes them even greater than the sum of their parts.


Sammy Watkins is one such receiver.



For starters, Hopkins numbers in his first four games were almost 100 yards better than Sammy's. Secondly, have you seen any evidence of those bolded things? I haven't.

I'll give Watkins credit for that part about plucking the ball, tucking it away, and accelerating in one smooth motion, but I haven't see the speed that everyone raved about relative to NFL defenders. And for that, he's near the top of the list in drops which does cast at least a little shadow on his ability to "pluck the ball."

Mel Kiper, widely regarded as one of the top draft experts as you know;


Sammy Watkins isn't just going to be a really good player, he already is one. He was my No. 2 prospect in the entire draft. EJ Manuel has a weapon, a player who can turn simple throws into big gains, and that matters because I still don't know how effective a downfield thrower Manuel is.


Just about everyone took his lead on that statement about turning simple throws into big gains. Do you see it? Clearly it hasn't happened. That has little to do with Manuel. As well, at least four rookies are outplaying him and only one has a proven better QB situation than he does.

Here's the rest of what Kiper says, which mimmicks my original sentiments as well for which I've taken so much heat;


My issue is that this draft is loaded with wide receivers — there are good ones already signing as undrafted free agents as I type this, in fact — and the Bills paid a significant price to get Watkins. A future first-round pick is always a heavy price, but they threw in a fourth as well, and they could have gotten a very good wide receiver in Odell Beckham Jr. without moving. Or think about this: the Jags took a QB one slot ahead of Watkins, but still managed to get Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson in Round 2. Would you rather have Watkins, or those two plus next-year's first? Watkins could be a star; the problem is he has to be, and soon, and you've already hacked away at your 2015 draft class significantly.

I was equally big on Evans and Benjamin, one of which has equal numbers to Watkins and the other much better ones.

From a more local source;


In Watkins, they have a player who is dangerous after the catch, can stretch the field vertically and is even capable of taking a hand-off and doing some damage with it. Some offensive coordinators might not fully appreciate Watkins' versatility, but that shouldn't be an issue with Hackett. 3. Sammy Watkins has done this before History tells us that it's tough for a rookie wide receiver to make the transition from the college game to the NFL. But history would tell us the same thing about freshmen wide receivers in college making the transition from high school, and Watkins made that jump look easy. Watkins is one of only four players in the history of college football to be named a consensus first-team All-American as a freshman. The other three were Herschel Walker, Adrian Peterson and Marshall Faulk. That's not bad company for the Bills' rookie.


There is a reason Watkins was drafted in the top five. He's incredibly talented with the only thing holding him back being his height. Watkins may not be working with a seasoned veteran at quarterback, but plenty of receivers have been productive with worse quarterback situations than Buffalo will have this season. It's always wise to have reasonable expectations for a rookie, but Watkins doesn't make that easy.

They don't say things like that for most WRs coming out.

[Fletch]

After all the Circus catches Sammy made in the off season, it gives one pause.

Did Sammy & the other receivers hands turn to stone or are they sick & tired of the poor passes EJ has been throwing them?

Good question. It makes a lot of sense to ask that given everything that was said about him in the draft.

Maybe you and Ginger Vitis can hash that out.

[OpIv37]

I don't get the Watkins hate in that article. He deserves criticism for taking a play off and hopefully he learns from that.

But he's 4 games into his NFL career, and one of those games was a monster while he was playing hurt. And the rest of the article destroys the QB who is supposed to be getting him the ball. It doesn't make sense to be so harsh on Watkins after stating point blank that EJ isn't targeting him and is missing when he does.

[BillsOwnAll]

The fact you say Sammy is supposed to be able to catch jump balls while blanketed... How many deep jump balls were thrown his way on target so far? He hasn't been presented the chance to make plays. How many plays a game would you consider him "open" and the ball not come his way? Alot

[The Jokeman]

I don't get the Watkins hate in that article. He deserves criticism for taking a play off and hopefully he learns from that.

But he's 4 games into his NFL career, and one of those games was a monster while he was playing hurt. And the rest of the article destroys the QB who is supposed to be getting him the ball. It doesn't make sense to be so harsh on Watkins after stating point blank that EJ isn't targeting him and is missing when he does.

It's called looking at stats of guys like Kelvin Benjamin and seeing his team is 3-1. Yet I won't call Sammy a major disappointment as he's doing abut what I expected but his TD numbers are actually higher than I thought. I mean everyone compares this move to the Julius Jones move but truth be told Jones benefited to going to a better team than we had and Jones was also the exception to the rule of most rookie WRs in terms of performance. Would I like Sammy to perform better? Sure but he's still doing pretty good for a rookie WR who I deem as a spot starter this year.

Personally I also don't think EJ was as big a gamble either. As he's making peanuts and in taking EJ in the new CBA means we aren't forced to keep him or kill our cap to cut him. The worst thing that happens is EJ sticks around as our backup and then let him go when his rookie deal runs out. Of course if he leaves and has success elsewhere then everyone will be screaming about how inept our coaching staff is. Yet to me a guy like Sam Bradford is hurting his Rams a lot more than EJ is hurting us.

[Luisito23]

EJ's pure trash and deserves all the criticism he gets, Watkins on the other hand is and will be just fine.

[DynaPaul]

It's only been 4 games.

[Fletch]

I don't get the Watkins hate in that article. He deserves criticism for taking a play off and hopefully he learns from that.

But he's 4 games into his NFL career, and one of those games was a monster while he was playing hurt. And the rest of the article destroys the QB who is supposed to be getting him the ball. It doesn't make sense to be so harsh on Watkins after stating point blank that EJ isn't targeting him and is missing when he does.

I think that the criticism in the article was more aimed at the Front Office, not Watkins or EJ. Rightfully so.

What he's saying is what I've been saying. It becomes even more pronounced now that EJ's no longer the starting QB.

Watkins was drafted to make EJ's issues diminish, which failed, for two reasons, one being Manuel's still Manuel, and secondly that much of Watkins' collegiate MO simply doesn't translate well to the NFL. That's the next lesson courtesy of Whaley and the FO that we're going to learn.

Having said that, now we have Orton starting and who knows which QB down the road but obviously not one that can only throw decent passes less than 10 yards, so to my point all along, how does this giving away of next year's 1st and 4th rate now?

Clearly in hindsight it would have been much better to take another WR later in the round and keep those picks.

As to Watkins, we'll see how he plays, but dropped passes are dropped passes, which goes against the sure hands we were told about.

He's also not turning those short passes into long gains like we were told. That's not a coaching or getting use to anything issue, it's a simple reality that while that stuff worked at Clemson and in the ACC it's not going to work in the NFL. Watkins is going to have to put up numbers like every other WR now, several of whom are doing much better with QB situtations no better than his which brings up the question, again, was trading those picks for Watkins worth it.

The title of the piece is

Bills' big investment in EJ Manuel and Sammy Watkins not paying early returns
not "Why Sammy sucks."

Sammy's good, but he's obviously not what the front office thought and said. I obviously can't speak for anyone else, and I'll post a poll in a few more weeks, but if right now someone were to ask me whether I'd rather have our 1st and 4th back next season, quite possibly with a competent GM in charge, and Evans or Benjamin instead of Watkins, it would take me a millisecond to say yes. Especially since the whole reason why we made that outrageous trade to get Sammy has now vaporized.