Bills and the AFC North - Playoff hopes

[trapezeus]

The bills have a good record at 5-3 and if the season ended today are in.

That being said, I think we put the bills chances of winning the division fairly low. it's under 10% on some statistical models (I obviously like the Nate Silver one). That means to make the playoffs we need to go in as wildcard, realistically.

currently the AFC North has all 4 teams above .500. If we can beat cleveland, that takes care of one team. But the other 3 are 4-2-1 and 5-3. Cincy and Pitt has better Conference records than us at this point.

Therefore, if we want to be a playoff team, the next 4 games need to look like 4-0 or 3-1. Especially if we think we might endure a 1-3 or 2-2 on the back 4.

so beat KC, Jets and Cleveland. it'd be nice to beat miami in miami, but road teams dont fair well on Thursdays for the most part. Anything less than that, then the AFC North has a good chance of putting 3 teams in, and if not, depending on if we lose to KC, the west has 3 pretty good teams.

the bills can control their destiny in these next 4 weeks and perform on the low end like many predicted for that back 4. that being said, if rodger's injury is nagging or becomes or significant, that game could start looking more winnable.

[Forward_Lateral]

They are going to have to be at least 7-5 with 4 games left to have a shot. 8-4 or even (gasp) 9-3 and they'd almost be a lock for the playoffs.

But, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. One game at a time. First up, beat the Chiefs. 6-3 would be HUGE.

[imbondz]

I can see us going 9-3 and finishing 9-7. I won't get my hopes up to make the playoffs until we win the 10th game. Til then hopefully they make it a fun season to watch.

[Topas]

I dont see us winning against KC. But I hope for the other three.
But Miami on the short week and also Cleveland will be tough. Good thing is that Orton was not here while Pettine was our D coordinator.

[djjimkelly]

however dont count out the afc west putting in 3 also now of course i want the bills in playoffs! but chargers 5-3 and chiefs 4-3 both are favorites this weekend and should be 6-3 and 5-3 respectively
this year is a crazy log jam at the 8 week mark.

simple solution keep winning!!!!

[Patrick76777]

Just remember that those 4 AFC North teams will be beating up on each other all year. Let's hope for splits all around!

[casdhf]

We are the 6 seed as of today.

[Fletch]

The bills have a good record at 5-3 and if the season ended today are in.

That being said, I think we put the bills chances of winning the division fairly low. it's under 10% on some statistical models (I obviously like the Nate Silver one). That means to make the playoffs we need to go in as wildcard, realistically.

currently the AFC North has all 4 teams above .500. If we can beat cleveland, that takes care of one team. But the other 3 are 4-2-1 and 5-3. Cincy and Pitt has better Conference records than us at this point.

Therefore, if we want to be a playoff team, the next 4 games need to look like 4-0 or 3-1. Especially if we think we might endure a 1-3 or 2-2 on the back 4.

so beat KC, Jets and Cleveland. it'd be nice to beat miami in miami, but road teams dont fair well on Thursdays for the most part. Anything less than that, then the AFC North has a good chance of putting 3 teams in, and if not, depending on if we lose to KC, the west has 3 pretty good teams.

the bills can control their destiny in these next 4 weeks and perform on the low end like many predicted for that back 4. that being said, if rodger's injury is nagging or becomes or significant, that game could start looking more winnable.

I realize that this is going to be about as popular as a booger in a bowl of soup, but despite our huge win yesterday, over what can now only be described as the most hapless team in the league and fully deserving of their 1-7 record, but we had a lot of issues yesterday.

For starters Orton was sacked 4 times and only dropped back to throw 22 or 23 times. He got 17 off. He's averaging over 4 sacks per game and one sack for every 8 attempts. Is there a worse QB in this category?

2 of 12 on 3rd down conversions. 12 1st downs.

Our rushing game sucked and our rushing defense looked anything but top-10 in allowing 175 on 5.3.

I'm not so sure how wise it is to be talking playoffs right now. As a number of people have pointed out, if this had been most other opponents yesterday we may very well have lost that game. The only thing this team had going, besides Geno Smith, was Orton/Watkins. Brown and Dixon were awful. Woods caught one TD but other than that no one did much of anything.

We won, we romped, but it had more to do with the awful play of the Jets than it did with good play of our own.

I don't think that any team has scored more points on less offense or will this entire season.

If we can beat KC I may start warming up to the optimism here. I don't think that we're going to beat KC by throwing on them. I don't think that we're going to beat too many more teams with our offense either. It's just not that good.

[Patrick76777]

Just remember that those 4 AFC North teams will be beating up on each other all year. Let's hope for splits all around!

[Historian]

I think if we beat KC and fish, then playoff vouchers should be mailed out.

What the hell...they're a nice keepsake even if we tank the rest of the season.

[Lexwhat]

There are currently 7 teams that are either 5-3 or 4-3 in the AFC right now (not including the Colts, who likely will win their division). Even a 10-6 record may not be enough for us to make the playoffs, as we may lose tiebreakers.

KC is likely to be one of those 9 or 10 win teams at the end of the season. Our game against them is an absolute must-win, IMO.

[trapezeus]

i agree with the sentiment that KC is the most important as it's the next one up.

we keep talking about statement games and perceived differences between past bills teams and hopefully this bills team.

To make a statement that we aren't the same old bills and to do what good teams do, we need to come off a bye, play a good team AT HOME and beat them.

if we do that to KC (who who almost beat with Tuel Time), looking at 3-1 or 4-0 (barring major injuries) starts looking realistic for that 3rd quarter of games.

Lose that game and you have to worry about a potential loss in miami and need to really go think about winning out against even better teams.

[THATHURMANATOR]

Why can't we beat Kansas City?

They are nothing special and it is a home game.

Of course not guaranteeing a win but we almost beat them last year with Jeff Tuel and they were a better team last year.

[Ingtar33]

Therefore, if we want to be a playoff team, the next 4 games need to look like 4-0 or 3-1. Especially if we think we might endure a 1-3 or 2-2 on the back 4.

we probably HAVE to win the next 4 to get into the playoffs. because there really is only 1 winnable game in our last 4. it will probably take a 10-6 record to make the playoffs which means when we lost to the texans in week 4, we lost the only "winnable" game we're allowed to lose this year. We're not going to beat denver, green bay or the pats unless we get very very lucky. So we will need to run the table with the next 4 games. if we can't do that then we won't deserve to make the playoffs.

[Mahdi]

we probably HAVE to win the next 4 to get into the playoffs. because there really is only 1 winnable game in our last 4. it will probably take a 10-6 record to make the playoffs which means when we lost to the texans in week 4, we lost the only "winnable" game we're allowed to lose this year. We're not going to beat denver, green bay or the pats unless we get very very lucky. So we will need to run the table with the next 4 games. if we can't do that then we won't deserve to make the playoffs.

I actually think we will beat the Packers. They have real problems on the OL and they can't stop the run. Our DL should feast and if we can be two dimensional on offense I don't think their D can stop us.

[justasportsfan]

Do we want the jets to beat KC which in turn put KC in a desperate situation to beat us? Or do we want KC to get overconfident/laxed after beating the jets ?

I say let the jets beat KC .

[BillsOverDolphins]

Man that Houston game still hurts. **** EJ...

As others have stated here, 10-6 may not be enough--but imo I think that magical double-digit figure will get us in. We absolutely need all 4 of these next games, or at least 3-1 to have a shot. December sucks because we have 2 guaranteed losses: (@Den, @NE) - we know damn well we ain't winning those 2 games, so that essentially leaves our margin for error at one more loss...most likely to KC, Miami, or GB. If we go into December at 8-4 it'll be tough, but RWS will see a crowd for the Packers game unlike any they've seen in nearly 2 decades, so it's doable.

[Ingtar33]

I actually think we will beat the Packers. They have real problems on the OL and they can't stop the run. Our DL should feast and if we can be two dimensional on offense I don't think their D can stop us.

if we can beat the packers then we will deserve a playoff spot, and we have no business losing any of the next 4 games anyway. When i look at the next 4 games the only game that gets me worried is the KC and Cleveland games. KC not so much because we're home but Cleveland is the type of game we always find a way to lose, and they haven't been half bad this year. I'd rather the AFC wins now then the NFC win at the end of the season, it will help us more in the tiebreakers... so i'd still rather go 4-0 in the next 4, then lose to one of the afc teams in the next 4 and steal a win from the packers.

[BillsOverDolphins]

We're going to beat the **** out of Cleveland, that game doesn't worry me at all. The @Miami, KC, and GB games are the big ones--if we go 2-1 among those games we will be in position

[justasportsfan]

We're going to beat the **** out of Cleveland, that game doesn't worry me at all. The @Miami, KC, and GB games are the big ones--if we go 2-1 among those games we will be in position

thats what I felt about the Vikes game and we barely beat them.

[trapezeus]

not worried about packers games (or really the back 4). last night's packers game shows you that injuries can hurt good teams. and the packers are a little reliant on how hot rodgers is and can be. when he isn't playing well, the team suffers. the broncos have a more complete team with solid d (or so i hear, i don't watch a lot of their games).

KC is winnable. but it's also not a lock. KC beat SD, they've put points up. the one saving grace is that the bills haven't played a complete game yet. just one game where the offense clicks isn't a ridiculous ask in 16 games....even on a bad team.

[imbondz]

As of today we control our own destiny. lol

[casdhf]

Alex Smith is not going to have 2 or 3 turnovers. We will have to score the ball.

[JohnnyGold]

Man that Houston game still hurts. **** EJ...

As others have stated here, 10-6 may not be enough--but imo I think that magical double-digit figure will get us in. We absolutely need all 4 of these next games, or at least 3-1 to have a shot. December sucks because we have 2 guaranteed losses: (@Den, @NE) - we know damn well we ain't winning those 2 games, so that essentially leaves our margin for error at one more loss...most likely to KC, Miami, or GB. If we go into December at 8-4 it'll be tough, but RWS will see a crowd for the Packers game unlike any they've seen in nearly 2 decades, so it's doable.

This line of thinking kills me lol.

Honestly though... why care about them making the playoffs if you think that games against playoff teams are unwinnable?

Why can't we beat Denver? Or New England?
Is it our defense that just forced 6 turnovers?
Our flawless special teams play?
Or our offense that just put up 43 points in a divisional road game?

Why do Bills fans just insist on writing games off?

We're 5-3. We need to finish 5-3. We might lose 3 in a row and then win 5 in a row.

Just enjoy the ride man.

[The Jokeman]

I dont see us winning against KC. But I hope for the other three.
But Miami on the short week and also Cleveland will be tough. Good thing is that Orton was not here while Pettine was our D coordinator.
We almost beat KC last year with Jeff Tuel at QB. Say what you want but our D is playing better than it did last year and the offense is way better. heck you can even argue the STs are better. On the whole the Bills are a much better team than we were last year.

If the Bills want a realistic shot at making the playoffs we need to beat KC, Miami again, NY Jets again, Cleveland and Oakland. Which I think is entirely possible.

[Topas]

... but we had a lot of issues yesterday.

For starters Orton was sacked 4 times and only dropped back to throw 22 or 23 times. He got 17 off. He's averaging over 4 sacks per game and one sack for every 8 attempts. Is there a worse QB in this category?

2 of 12 on 3rd down conversions. 12 1st downs.

Our rushing game sucked and our rushing defense looked anything but top-10 in allowing 175 on 5.3.

I'm not so sure how wise it is to be talking playoffs right now. As a number of people have pointed out, if this had been most other opponents yesterday we may very well have lost that game. The only thing this team had going, besides Geno Smith, was Orton/Watkins. Brown and Dixon were awful. Woods caught one TD but other than that no one did much of anything.

We won, we romped, but it had more to do with the awful play of the Jets than it did with good play of our own. ...

I think our problems are overstated. The playcalling is not good, but not as bad as made out to be. Same for the awful play of the Jets being the reason for our win.

It's not as if Geno decided that our jerseys are so cute that he prefers to throw to our guys. He threw to our guys because our D is good and pressured him. Same for Vick. The Jets were bad because we were good. We are a good football team. In general. Maybe not good enough to reach the playoffs but at least we are in the hunt with Orton at QB.

[Topas]

Wow, you guys feel a lot more confident about the GB game than me. Probably I have to watch their last game and I will feel better. But I heard that Rodgers played injured and I think this guy is scary when healthy. Actually they are my favourite in the NFC, although I have to admit I follow the NFC not that much, so take that with a grain of salt...

[Mr. Miyagi]

I dont see us winning against KC. But I hope for the other three.
I don't see why we can't beat KC. They have a good run game but we have an elite run D. Their pass game is average to below average and again our D has been good. It will be a defensive struggle but at the end I think our home field advantage can give us the edge to win.

[Fletch]

I think if we beat KC and fish, then playoff vouchers should be mailed out.

What the hell...they're a nice keepsake even if we tank the rest of the season.

Talk about jinxing us if they do that.

[Fletch]

We're going to beat the **** out of Cleveland, that game doesn't worry me at all.

That's what we said last year and they beat us with Weeden and McGahee. The Browns are a better team this year than they were last year and have played very similarly to the way we have. A lot of people said how horrible their receivers and passing game would be but they average more passing yards per game than we have. Their top 4 WRs have 1,220 yards, our top 4 WRs have 1,202 yards in one more game.

It's not wise to underestimate them.

[Fletch]

Alex Smith is not going to have 2 or 3 turnovers. We will have to score the ball.

Not too many QBs if any are going to be doing that. It's one of those games. We've had two so far, Chicago and yesterday.

[HAMMER]

LMAO at Felch trying to find a stat for every negative scenario. Just enjoy the 5-3 record and zip it for a day or two. Please.

[Fletch]

It's not as if Geno decided that our jerseys are so cute that he prefers to throw to our guys. He threw to our guys because our D is good and pressured him. Same for Vick. The Jets were bad because we were good. We are a good football team. In general. Maybe not good enough to reach the playoffs but at least we are in the hunt with Orton at QB.

Come on, Geno's thrown horrible balls in so many games. You don't put up 31 INTs in 24 games by putting the ball where it needs to be.

I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade, but can we at least be honest here? Two INTs were right to our guys with no Jets players around. One of the other two was to our guy who was in coverage. The other was great coverage and I'll even say great coverage on that last one, but two were gifts.

Jury's out as to whether we're a good football team. Sure, we put up 43 points, but the offense didn't do much besides a few big plays. Running game sucked and is something that everyone needs to be concerned about, except for upcoming defenses that is. Orton got sacked 4 times with 17 completions. He's averaging over 4 sacks/game. That too is relevant.

2 of 12 on 3rd down conversions? That's good? 12 1st downs? That's pathetic. And since few noticed it our formerly 1st ranked rushing D is now ranked 8th in ypg, it dropped 3 more spots.

We've beaten five teams, three are terrible, one was Miami at home. We've beaten only one team that's brought any offensive balance. We play some tough teams coming up, the best on the schedule. Let's see us play two of them competitively first.

2011 is way too fresh on my mind. 5-2 to 6-10.

[Fletch]

LMAO at Felch trying to find a stat for every negative scenario. Just enjoy the 5-3 record and zip it for a day or two. Please.

I'm sorry, I thought that we were discussing the team and its future games and likelihood of winning them.

Here's one, how about quit posting about me or some other poster and stick to team stuff? I realize you can't do that which is mindboggling.

[trapezeus]

Come on, Geno's thrown horrible balls in so many games. You don't put up 31 INTs in 24 games by putting the ball where it needs to be.

I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade, but can we at least be honest here? Two INTs were right to our guys with no Jets players around. One of the other two was to our guy who was in coverage. The other was great coverage and I'll even say great coverage on that last one, but two were gifts.

Jury's out as to whether we're a good football team. Sure, we put up 43 points, but the offense didn't do much besides a few big plays. Running game sucked and is something that everyone needs to be concerned about, except for upcoming defenses that is. Orton got sacked 4 times with 17 completions. He's averaging over 4 sacks/game. That too is relevant.

2 of 12 on 3rd down conversions? That's good? 12 1st downs? That's pathetic. And since few noticed it our formerly 1st ranked rushing D is now ranked 8th in ypg, it dropped 3 more spots.

We've beaten five teams, three are terrible, one was Miami at home. We've beaten only one team that's brought any offensive balance. We play some tough teams coming up, the best on the schedule. Let's see us play two of them competitively first.

2011 is way too fresh on my mind. 5-2 to 6-10.

Bills D said they knew what geno's tendancies were. that he locks on and throws o matter what to that guy. rich gannon even said, "it looks like the bills are running the routes" the INT's were caused by pressure and some errant throws, but they weren't gifts. they were ready to do that.

the fact they took time to adjust to vick says as much. they beat on a bad qb.

in 8 games left, they face 4 good qbs at most.

[justasportsfan]

LMAO at Felch trying to find a stat for every negative scenario. Just enjoy the 5-3 record and zip it for a day or two. Please.

damage control :snicker:

Didn't Fletch predict a 3 win season?

[ublinkwescore]

Do we want the jets to beat KC which in turn put KC in a desperate situation to beat us? Or do we want KC to get overconfident/laxed after beating the jets ?

I say let the jets beat KC .

i would prefer the jets to beat the chiefs. because at the end of the season, I'd prefer KC to be removed from the playoff contention sooner rather than later - they are a threat to the 5th and 6th wild cards. Additionally, I don't see KC coming in to Buffalo and beating us in our own house while we have a winning record beyond the halfway point of the season. Our Defense is firing on all 8 cylinders, our O can actually move the ball with Orton under center, we just need our O line to get more physical up front to open up some holes for Dixon and Brown to get through. hell give a few carries to Summers too.

the AFC north teams will beat each other up some more - they will not produce a wild card team of more than 9 wins. I see the Chargers and the Chefs as the number one threats to our january football invites - even though they too will beat each other up, they will also beat up a lot of other AFC teams.

- - - Updated - - -

It will feel dirty, but we may actually need New England to win out in San Diego when they play the bolts.

[trapezeus]

one thing that might be good is that we haven't gone hot yet. not sure if we can rely on that with our offense.

but historically the last couple superbowl winners like the ravens and giants got red hot at the end and rode that momentum. perhaps, we get a break like that.

the idea of a home playoff game is just too much to handle, but i would love nothing more than to see the bills host a playoff game and have the fans will us into victory.

[Historian]

We're not going to beat denver, green bay or the pats unless we get very very lucky .

I disagree Ing.

I have a good feeling about the Packer game, and who knows what happens when Manning faces a real tough D like hours? Just look at the SB. Hell it could be in a snowstorm for all we know.

It's not the top flight opponents that worry me, it's the bottom feeders like the Raiders and the Browns.

Traditionally, the Bills have a history of playing down to the level of the competition.

This year appears to be different, but who knows?

[alohabillsfan]

I refused to believe that we can't beat the phins, chiefs, packers, or jets!

[TacklingDummy]

1 game short of the Playoffs. EJs gift to Bills fans.

[BillsImpossible]

1 game short of the Playoffs. EJs gift to Bills fans.

As John Wayne once said, "That'll be the day."

[better days]

As John Wayne once said, "That'll be the day."

He got that from Buddy Holly.

[stuckincincy]

He got that from Buddy Holly.

No credit to anyone. It is an idiom. Fu.

[Fletch]

I refused to believe that we can't beat the phins, chiefs, packers, or jets!

Four of the teams we've beaten are ranked 20th, 25th, 28th, and 29th in scoring. Miami's the other one ranked 12th.

Green Bay ranks 7th.

We'll see.

[BillsOverDolphins]

This line of thinking kills me lol.

Honestly though... why care about them making the playoffs if you think that games against playoff teams are unwinnable?

Why can't we beat Denver? Or New England?
Is it our defense that just forced 6 turnovers?
Our flawless special teams play?
Or our offense that just put up 43 points in a divisional road game?

Why do Bills fans just insist on writing games off?

We're 5-3. We need to finish 5-3. We might lose 3 in a row and then win 5 in a row.

Just enjoy the ride man.

Oh stfu, ******. Be realistic