Bills and the AFC North - Playoff hopes

[trapezeus]

The bills have a good record at 5-3 and if the season ended today are in.

That being said, I think we put the bills chances of winning the division fairly low. it's under 10% on some statistical models (I obviously like the Nate Silver one). That means to make the playoffs we need to go in as wildcard, realistically.

currently the AFC North has all 4 teams above .500. If we can beat cleveland, that takes care of one team. But the other 3 are 4-2-1 and 5-3. Cincy and Pitt has better Conference records than us at this point.

Therefore, if we want to be a playoff team, the next 4 games need to look like 4-0 or 3-1. Especially if we think we might endure a 1-3 or 2-2 on the back 4.

so beat KC, Jets and Cleveland. it'd be nice to beat miami in miami, but road teams dont fair well on Thursdays for the most part. Anything less than that, then the AFC North has a good chance of putting 3 teams in, and if not, depending on if we lose to KC, the west has 3 pretty good teams.

the bills can control their destiny in these next 4 weeks and perform on the low end like many predicted for that back 4. that being said, if rodger's injury is nagging or becomes or significant, that game could start looking more winnable.

[Forward_Lateral]

Re: Bills and the AFC North - Playoff hopes

They are going to have to be at least 7-5 with 4 games left to have a shot. 8-4 or even (gasp) 9-3 and they'd almost be a lock for the playoffs.

But, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. One game at a time. First up, beat the Chiefs. 6-3 would be HUGE.

[imbondz]

Re: Bills and the AFC North - Playoff hopes

I can see us going 9-3 and finishing 9-7. I won't get my hopes up to make the playoffs until we win the 10th game. Til then hopefully they make it a fun season to watch.

[Topas]

Re: Bills and the AFC North - Playoff hopes

I dont see us winning against KC. But I hope for the other three.
But Miami on the short week and also Cleveland will be tough. Good thing is that Orton was not here while Pettine was our D coordinator.

[djjimkelly]

Re: Bills and the AFC North - Playoff hopes

however dont count out the afc west putting in 3 also now of course i want the bills in playoffs! but chargers 5-3 and chiefs 4-3 both are favorites this weekend and should be 6-3 and 5-3 respectively
this year is a crazy log jam at the 8 week mark.

simple solution keep winning!!!!

[Patrick76777]

Re: Bills and the AFC North - Playoff hopes

Just remember that those 4 AFC North teams will be beating up on each other all year. Let's hope for splits all around!

[casdhf]

Re: Bills and the AFC North - Playoff hopes

We are the 6 seed as of today.

[Fletch]

Re: Bills and the AFC North - Playoff hopes

The bills have a good record at 5-3 and if the season ended today are in.

That being said, I think we put the bills chances of winning the division fairly low. it's under 10% on some statistical models (I obviously like the Nate Silver one). That means to make the playoffs we need to go in as wildcard, realistically.

currently the AFC North has all 4 teams above .500. If we can beat cleveland, that takes care of one team. But the other 3 are 4-2-1 and 5-3. Cincy and Pitt has better Conference records than us at this point.

Therefore, if we want to be a playoff team, the next 4 games need to look like 4-0 or 3-1. Especially if we think we might endure a 1-3 or 2-2 on the back 4.

so beat KC, Jets and Cleveland. it'd be nice to beat miami in miami, but road teams dont fair well on Thursdays for the most part. Anything less than that, then the AFC North has a good chance of putting 3 teams in, and if not, depending on if we lose to KC, the west has 3 pretty good teams.

the bills can control their destiny in these next 4 weeks and perform on the low end like many predicted for that back 4. that being said, if rodger's injury is nagging or becomes or significant, that game could start looking more winnable.

I realize that this is going to be about as popular as a booger in a bowl of soup, but despite our huge win yesterday, over what can now only be described as the most hapless team in the league and fully deserving of their 1-7 record, but we had a lot of issues yesterday.

For starters Orton was sacked 4 times and only dropped back to throw 22 or 23 times. He got 17 off. He's averaging over 4 sacks per game and one sack for every 8 attempts. Is there a worse QB in this category?

2 of 12 on 3rd down conversions. 12 1st downs.

Our rushing game sucked and our rushing defense looked anything but top-10 in allowing 175 on 5.3.

I'm not so sure how wise it is to be talking playoffs right now. As a number of people have pointed out, if this had been most other opponents yesterday we may very well have lost that game. The only thing this team had going, besides Geno Smith, was Orton/Watkins. Brown and Dixon were awful. Woods caught one TD but other than that no one did much of anything.

We won, we romped, but it had more to do with the awful play of the Jets than it did with good play of our own.

I don't think that any team has scored more points on less offense or will this entire season.

If we can beat KC I may start warming up to the optimism here. I don't think that we're going to beat KC by throwing on them. I don't think that we're going to beat too many more teams with our offense either. It's just not that good.

[Patrick76777]

Re: Bills and the AFC North - Playoff hopes

Just remember that those 4 AFC North teams will be beating up on each other all year. Let's hope for splits all around!

[Historian]

Re: Bills and the AFC North - Playoff hopes

I think if we beat KC and fish, then playoff vouchers should be mailed out.

What the hell...they're a nice keepsake even if we tank the rest of the season.

[Lexwhat]

Re: Bills and the AFC North - Playoff hopes

There are currently 7 teams that are either 5-3 or 4-3 in the AFC right now (not including the Colts, who likely will win their division). Even a 10-6 record may not be enough for us to make the playoffs, as we may lose tiebreakers.

KC is likely to be one of those 9 or 10 win teams at the end of the season. Our game against them is an absolute must-win, IMO.

[trapezeus]

Re: Bills and the AFC North - Playoff hopes

i agree with the sentiment that KC is the most important as it's the next one up.

we keep talking about statement games and perceived differences between past bills teams and hopefully this bills team.

To make a statement that we aren't the same old bills and to do what good teams do, we need to come off a bye, play a good team AT HOME and beat them.

if we do that to KC (who who almost beat with Tuel Time), looking at 3-1 or 4-0 (barring major injuries) starts looking realistic for that 3rd quarter of games.

Lose that game and you have to worry about a potential loss in miami and need to really go think about winning out against even better teams.

[THATHURMANATOR]

Re: Bills and the AFC North - Playoff hopes

Why can't we beat Kansas City?

They are nothing special and it is a home game.

Of course not guaranteeing a win but we almost beat them last year with Jeff Tuel and they were a better team last year.

[Ingtar33]

Re: Bills and the AFC North - Playoff hopes

Therefore, if we want to be a playoff team, the next 4 games need to look like 4-0 or 3-1. Especially if we think we might endure a 1-3 or 2-2 on the back 4.

we probably HAVE to win the next 4 to get into the playoffs. because there really is only 1 winnable game in our last 4. it will probably take a 10-6 record to make the playoffs which means when we lost to the texans in week 4, we lost the only "winnable" game we're allowed to lose this year. We're not going to beat denver, green bay or the pats unless we get very very lucky. So we will need to run the table with the next 4 games. if we can't do that then we won't deserve to make the playoffs.

[Mahdi]

Re: Bills and the AFC North - Playoff hopes

we probably HAVE to win the next 4 to get into the playoffs. because there really is only 1 winnable game in our last 4. it will probably take a 10-6 record to make the playoffs which means when we lost to the texans in week 4, we lost the only "winnable" game we're allowed to lose this year. We're not going to beat denver, green bay or the pats unless we get very very lucky. So we will need to run the table with the next 4 games. if we can't do that then we won't deserve to make the playoffs.

I actually think we will beat the Packers. They have real problems on the OL and they can't stop the run. Our DL should feast and if we can be two dimensional on offense I don't think their D can stop us.