1st Round QB's

[The King]

Here's a list of all QB's drafted in the first round since 2001.

The transition from college to pro at the QB is the most difficult to predict. For those of you who are calling for the head of Whaley take a look at this list. There's very few sure-fire QB's here.

2012: Luck (1), Griffin, Tannehill and Weeden
2011: Newton (1), Locker, Ponder, Gabbert
2010: Bradford (1), Tebow
2009: Stafford (1), Sanchez and Freeman
2008: Ryan, Flacco
2007: Russell (1), Quinn
2006: Young, Leinhart, Cutler
2005: Smith (1), Rodgers, Campbell
2004: Manning (1), Rivers, Roethlisberger, Losman
2003: Palmer (1), Leftwich, Grossman, Boller
2002: Carr (1), Harrington, Ramsey
2001: Vick (1)

35 players selected. 10 of them ended up as franchise QB's for teams that drafted them (28%). And that's giving the benefit of the doubt to Newton, and Vick. 5 of those were taken with the #1 overall pick. Which we didn't have.

The verdict is still out on EJ, it doesn't look great but at least we had the foresight to pick up an extra pick with the deal. If EJ doesn't pan it we still hit on the Kiko selection so this isn't a JP Losman type move where it sets the team back 5 years. He hedged his bet.

The 2013 QB class wasn't a strong one… but everyone wanted Fitzpatrick out. Fans were screaming for it. So he was let go. We signed Kolb and we were forced to take a QB in a rough draft class. Then we had to play him. We've seen the results first-hand.

I think his response to this season will be what ultimately decides his future. It's his job to turn the Watkins trade into a positive and it's his job to respond to this QB situation. He deserves that chance. To bring in a new regime will set us back another three years. This team is on the fence. It's one or two upgrades away.

[k-oneputt]

Re: 1st Round QB's

And that in a nutshell is what separates the good gm's from the poor gm's.
Making the right decisions.
Nobody said it is easy, but his team has had way to many misses since Polian left.

[better days]

Re: 1st Round QB's

Bringing in a new HC did not set back the Eagles, Cardinals or Chiefs.

You have to bring in someone BETTER than the person he replaced & the team will improve quickly.

[Albany,n.y.]

Re: 1st Round QB's

A new regime will not set the team back 3 years. Best example was Baltimore the 1st year Harbaugh came in. He was forced to start a rookie QB (who they had traded up to get) and made the playoffs with a 11-5 record after going 5-11 in 2007. They even made it to the AFC Championship game. Many new regimes have things completely turned around in 1-2 years. Look at what Parcells did to the worst teams in football when he coached the Jets & was in Miami's front office. Back in 1996 both expansion teams made their conference championship in their 2nd season. Only continued mismanagement can set a team back 3 years, new management over the years has proven quite effective.

Also-A lot of the GMs who picked the loser QBs in the 1st round got fired.

[trapezeus]

Re: 1st Round QB's

i like your point about hedging hte bet and not going all in on EJ. That's why i liked it.

but i do think the bills are very close to their ceiling right now. a .500 team with the aspiration to make the playoffs but to go out quietly.

i think a rebuild may cause the streak to roll on, but if done right, the ceiling will be pushed up to be a competitive playoff team. i want to be a playoff team badly as well, but once we do it, it will suck ot know that we don't really have a contender.

[The King]

Re: 1st Round QB's

It's not like Whaley whiffed and took the wrong guy.

[OpIv37]

Re: 1st Round QB's

Here's a list of all QB's drafted in the first round since 2001.

The transition from college to pro at the QB is the most difficult to predict. For those of you who are calling for the head of Whaley take a look at this list. There's very few sure-fire QB's here.

2012: Luck (1), Griffin, Tannehill and Weeden
2011: Newton (1), Locker, Ponder, Gabbert
2010: Bradford (1), Tebow
2009: Stafford (1), Sanchez and Freeman
2008: Ryan, Flacco
2007: Russell (1), Quinn
2006: Young, Leinhart, Cutler
2005: Smith (1), Rodgers, Campbell
2004: Manning (1), Rivers, Roethlisberger, Losman
2003: Palmer (1), Leftwich, Grossman, Boller
2002: Carr (1), Harrington, Ramsey
2001: Vick (1)

35 players selected. 10 of them ended up as franchise QB's for teams that drafted them (28%). And that's giving the benefit of the doubt to Newton, and Vick. 5 of those were taken with the #1 overall pick. Which we didn't have.

The verdict is still out on EJ, it doesn't look great but at least we had the foresight to pick up an extra pick with the deal. If EJ doesn't pan it we still hit on the Kiko selection so this isn't a JP Losman type move where it sets the team back 5 years. He hedged his bet.

The 2013 QB class wasn't a strong one… but everyone wanted Fitzpatrick out. Fans were screaming for it. So he was let go. We signed Kolb and we were forced to take a QB in a rough draft class. Then we had to play him. We've seen the results first-hand.

I think his response to this season will be what ultimately decides his future. It's his job to turn the Watkins trade into a positive and it's his job to respond to this QB situation. He deserves that chance. To bring in a new regime will set us back another three years. This team is on the fence. It's one or two upgrades away.

Here's the problem: by the time we get the one or two upgrades, this won't be the same team. Kyle Williams is getting old and Dareus and Hughes need extensions. OL and RB need to be upgraded, and of course QB. With no first round pick, it's gonna be 3 years or so before that hole can be filled, and in the meantime a plethora of new holes will arise.

So pick your poison: start the rebuild now and hopefully be competitive in 3 years, or wait two years grasping at straws that these guys will eventually get it right and be starting the rebuild in 2-3 years instead of finishing it.

Whaley did some good things- notably Preston Brown and Schwartz, maybe Henderson. But he made a bad pick with EJ then doubled down by using our best chance to replace him on a WR that's useless without a QB that can get him the ball. The EJ pick itself may not set the team back 3 years, but combined with the Warkins trade it absolutely sets is back 3 years.

That's an awful lot to overlook in the name of stability.

[Fletch]

Re: 1st Round QB's

Here's what I have a problem with, Manuel was not projected as a true 1st-round talent by many, only an obscure few thought he was.

There was plenty of info out there including an article that I've posted the link to a good 20 times and that even someone else did after the fact earlier this season that spelled out why Manuel was a long-shot to make a good NFL QB. It was written by people that had access to FSU's coaching staff and who saw every game he participated in. It even quoted Mike Mayock who's opinion aligned with theirs.

Manuel quite possibly could have been had in round 2 or maybe even 3. Between him, Barkley, and Smith, there was no clearcut first overall choice there, in fact, many had the others going before Manuel.

When as a GM you reach like that, you do not set yourself up to be given a mulligan the way that has been initiated here.

Factor in last season's trade up while rendering promises of playoffs and we have a verdict.

What's next, Whaley trading 2016's and 2017's 1st-round picks for one mid-1st-rounder this year? Or our 2nd, 3rd, and next 2016's 1st?

No thanks. Time for new blood.

[Mr. Miyagi]

Re: 1st Round QB's

IND - Luck (1)
WAS - Griffin, Campbell, Ramsey
MIA - Tannehill
CLE - Weeden, Quinn
CAR - Newton (1)
TEN - Locker, Young
MIN - Ponder
JAX - Gabbert, Leftwich
STL - Bradford (1)
DEN - Tebow, Cutler
DET - Stafford (1), Harrington
NYJ - Sanchez
TB - Freeman
ATL - Ryan, Vick
BAL - Flacco, Boller
OAK - Russell (1)
ARI - Leinhart
SF - Smith (1)
GB - Rodgers
NYG - Manning (1)
SD - Rivers
PIT - Roethlisberger
BUF - Losman
CIN - Palmer (1)
CHI - Grossman
HOU - Carr (1)

Some teams are awful at picking QBs. Washington, Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Cleveland suck at it. Cleveland with Johnny Football not on the list yet either. Buffalo has Losman and the jury is still out on EJ so I won't count that.

[Albany,n.y.]

Re: 1st Round QB's

It's not like Whaley whiffed and took the wrong guy.

Sure he did. When there's nobody worth drafting at the position, you don't create a need and then draft someone anyway, you wait a year and draft the right guy. A GM is not supposed to be so short sighted that he only looks at the current draft when he makes a decision. As far as everyone wanting Fitz out, I'll go back to Marv Levy's statement about that: When you start listening to the fans you end up sitting with them in the stands. I hope next year Marrone & Whaley are sitting right next to me when I go to a Bills game.

[Fletch]

Re: 1st Round QB's

Sure he did. When there's nobody worth drafting at the position, you don't create a need and then draft someone anyway, you wait a year and draft the right guy. A GM is not supposed to be so short sighted that he only looks at the current draft when he makes a decision.

Exactly. That's the basis for my answer when people challenge me as to "who I would have taken." You and I wouldn't be in that spot to begin with is the point.

[EDS]

Re: 1st Round QB's

Here's a list of all QB's drafted in the first round since 2001.

The transition from college to pro at the QB is the most difficult to predict. For those of you who are calling for the head of Whaley take a look at this list. There's very few sure-fire QB's here.

2012: Luck (1), Griffin, Tannehill and Weeden
2011: Newton (1), Locker, Ponder, Gabbert
2010: Bradford (1), Tebow
2009: Stafford (1), Sanchez and Freeman
2008: Ryan, Flacco
2007: Russell (1), Quinn
2006: Young, Leinhart, Cutler
2005: Smith (1), Rodgers, Campbell
2004: Manning (1), Rivers, Roethlisberger, Losman
2003: Palmer (1), Leftwich, Grossman, Boller
2002: Carr (1), Harrington, Ramsey
2001: Vick (1)

35 players selected. 10 of them ended up as franchise QB's for teams that drafted them (28%). And that's giving the benefit of the doubt to Newton, and Vick. 5 of those were taken with the #1 overall pick. Which we didn't have.

The verdict is still out on EJ, it doesn't look great but at least we had the foresight to pick up an extra pick with the deal. If EJ doesn't pan it we still hit on the Kiko selection so this isn't a JP Losman type move where it sets the team back 5 years. He hedged his bet.

The 2013 QB class wasn't a strong one… but everyone wanted Fitzpatrick out. Fans were screaming for it. So he was let go. We signed Kolb and we were forced to take a QB in a rough draft class. Then we had to play him. We've seen the results first-hand.

I think his response to this season will be what ultimately decides his future. It's his job to turn the Watkins trade into a positive and it's his job to respond to this QB situation. He deserves that chance. To bring in a new regime will set us back another three years. This team is on the fence. It's one or two upgrades away.

How many of the GM's that picked non-bolded QB's from your list above got fired within two years after making those picks?

[Fletch]

Re: 1st Round QB's

How many of the GM's that picked non-bolded QB's from your list above got fired within two years after making those picks?

How many of those GMs reached out of round by 1 to 4 rounds to get those QBs?

The very critical element of discussion that you're ignoring is the fact that just about all, if not all outright, of those non-bolded QBs were projected by the vast majority of draft experts to have been legitimate 1st-round picks, quite often very high ones in fact. If anything, how Russell and Young turned out should have been more of a flag for the team than anything.

QB is the toughest spot to nail down, that's common knowledge, but making the job harder and the chances even more unlikely, is reaching well out of round and perhaps into several rounds down to pick one in the mid-1st.

No one's on Whaley for picking a QB per se. What they're on him for is for reaching for one that wasn't viewed as a consensus 1st-round pick or even close to one. There's a huge difference there in your argument.

Here's the thing, even Whaley says so himself that his future in Buffalo came down to that pick. If you haven't viewed it yet, view the video in my sig.

You're arguing with Whaley himself on this who fully understood that if he whiffed on Manuel then it would be his ass.

[Fletch]

Re: 1st Round QB's

By the way, whether he's here or not he's also going to be taking similar heat for trading what he traded to get Watkins, and Watkins is good, Manuel stinks and won't ever be more than a backup.

[better days]

Re: 1st Round QB's

Here's the problem: by the time we get the one or two upgrades, this won't be the same team. Kyle Williams is getting old and Dareus and Hughes need extensions. OL and RB need to be upgraded, and of course QB. With no first round pick, it's gonna be 3 years or so before that hole can be filled, and in the meantime a plethora of new holes will arise.

So pick your poison: start the rebuild now and hopefully be competitive in 3 years, or wait two years grasping at straws that these guys will eventually get it right and be starting the rebuild in 2-3 years instead of finishing it.

Whaley did some good things- notably Preston Brown and Schwartz, maybe Henderson. But he made a bad pick with EJ then doubled down by using our best chance to replace him on a WR that's useless without a QB that can get him the ball. The EJ pick itself may not set the team back 3 years, but combined with the Warkins trade it absolutely sets is back 3 years.

That's an awful lot to overlook in the name of stability.

Kyle Williams is 31 years old.

If he avoids a major injury, he could easily play another 6 years at a high level.

I expect this front office to keep Darius & Hughes long term or I will be on board with firing them all.