This is an interesting one. Bills have never had very much success against Rex Ryan. Jets are 6-2 against Buffalo during Ryan’s tenure as head coach. It’s also worth noting Doug Marrone (at Syracuse) has had great success against Geno Smith (West Virginia) defeating him all three times the teams faced each other. Geno’s totals against Marrone 63/106 - 59%, 717 yards, 5TDs, 5 INT’s. It is worth noting that Geno’s 2010 performance was significantly worse than 2011 & 2012 and the numbers are a bit skewed based on that game. But, all these things are in the past, let’s take a look at this week’s match-up. (I put some serious time into this, so please provide any feedback)

Quarterback:

We only have two games to compare the rookie signal callers. Right now, Geno’s best NFL play is being hit late - Manuel is hopefully gaining confidence after a huge game winning drive. Oddly enough both QB’s are among only six rookies to “lead” the team to a game winning drive in their first two games. At this stage the edge goes to EJ Manuel. = Bills
Geno Smith: 39/73 – 53% - 470 Yards – 1TD – 4INT - QBR 55.2
EJ Manuel: 45/66 – 68% - 446 Yards – 3TD – 1INT – QBR 95.9

Running back:

Chris Ivory was a big addition to the Jets offense during the off season, the Jets traded a 4^th round pick to the Saints for his services and rewarded him with a three-year $10M contract. Ivory is currently sitting behind Bilal Powell on the depth chart, while both backs are still on their quest to crack 100 yards rushing. CJ Spiller had a very nice bounce-back game against Carolina and Fred Jackson continues to earn touches due to his efficiency on short yardage downs. = Bills
Bilal Powell: 25/77 – 3.1YPC -1TD, 1F
CJ Spiller: 33/144 – 4.4YPC – 0TD – 1F

Wide Receivers/Tight ends:

The career of Kellen Winslow has been resurrected. Sadly it’s because the other weapons at the Jets disposal are currently not a concern for any TSA official. Geno Smith has yet to develop a chemistry with any of his wide receivers. Stephen Hill is the most targeted (17), and at 6’ 4” he may present a challenge for Leodis McKelvin this will be a match-up to watch. Santonio Holmes and Clyde Gates have been ineffective reeling in only 7 of 21 targets. The Bills receiving core is largely unproven but the impressive performance from Robert Woods has many Bills fans excited. I would like to see Chris Hogan cut into TJ Graham’s reps a bit as Graham has been a disappointment. = Tie
Stephen Hill: 10/125 – 0TD – 1F
Kellen Winslow: 10/95 – 1TD
Steve Johnson: 11/150 – 2TD
Robert Woods: 5/86 - TD

Oline:

Based on star power this shouldn’t be close at all. The Jets have nine Pro Bowls among their starting five. However the inexperience of their quarterback has created problems, Smith had been sacked nine times, that ranks 2^nd worst in the league. On the opposite sideline the Bills Oline has been very solid. EJ Manuel has only been sacked once (a missed assignment by FB Frank Summers). G Colin Brown seems to be scrutinized weekly but the Bills have found a way to protect even with his struggles. =Bills

Dline:

Coming off a great defensive performance everyone is very high on the Bills Dline. Mario Williams was an animal, and Darues and Kyle Williams improved significantly up the middle. The reality of the situation is that the Bills defense is among the NFL’s worst against the run (29^th), the Jets don’t have a significant running threat, but this is something that needs to improve. Good news is that the Bills are tied for 2^nd in sacks (largely due to Mario Williams contributions against Carolina). The Jets defense are top 5 against both the run and the pass, most impressively holding RB’s to just 2.4YPC. Getting CJ worked into the gameplan early will be key. = Jets

Linebackers:

The Jets linebackers are led by 7 year veteran David Harris and second year backer DeMario Davis. Both players tend to be really strong in between the hash marks but vulnerable on the edges. Once again look for CJ to try and get into a rhythm and work outside early. On the other side Kiko Alonso had a lights out game against Carolina, pulling in an interception (based on film study) and the game ending sack. Arthur Moats saw increased playing time had a much better game than his season debut, racking up 8 tackles. Communication between the Bills backers and safeties will be crucial when keeping track of Kellen Winslow. In my surprise pick of the week I give the edge to the Bills = Bills
David Harris: 14 Tackles – 6 solo – 1FF
Kiko Alonso: 19 Tackles – 14 solo – 1 sack – 1FF – 1 FREC – 1INT – 1PD

Defensive backs:

On March 9^th the Bills re-signed Leodis McKelvin to a four-year $20M contract. Fans were flooding message boards and social media in disgust comparing the signing to Chris Kelsay’s 2007 deal. What we’ve seen out of McKelvin in 2013 has been Pro Bowl quality play. His match-up against Steve Smith last week reminded me a lot of Stephon Gilmore vs. Larry Fitzgerald last year, it was an exciting chess match, and in the end I feel Leodis got the better of the shifty veteran. Without Byrd and Gilmore the young Bills secondary has been really impressive. There’s been some mistakes, there’s been some bad penalties, but as a whole this group is out playing everyone’s expectations. The Jets secondary looks a lot different, Revis is gone, LaRon Landry & Yeremiah Bell are gone. They also have a lot of young players in key roles, but based on their performance vs. New England, I give the Jets the advantage. = Jets
Antonio Allen: 14 Tackles – 8 solo
Dawan Landry: 9 Tackles – 5 solo – 1INT – 1PD
Aaron Williams: 21 Tackles – 11 solo
Da’Norris Searcy: 16 Tackles – 9 solo – 1 sack – 1FREC – 1TD
(Worth noting Leodis McKelvin has 7 Passes Defended, 2^nd best in the league)

Coaching:

Mike Pettine knows Rex Ryan, Rex Ryan knows Mike Pettine. Doug Marrone knows Geno Smith, Rex Ryan owns the Bills. This could go a lot of different ways and if you disagree with me? I don’t blame you. But one team is building confidence in their coach and the other team is losing it. If you ever have to threaten to punch another coach in the face to motivate your team you’re in trouble. = Bills
Rex Ryan: 35-31
Doug Marrone: 1-1

My prediction 21-16 Bills.