Bills Toxic

Re: Bills Toxic

Couple comments.

A) a lot of the what put the Bills there is Sammy Watkins - whether he did it himself or acted as a decoy to open up other receivers. I gotta get over this Id vs Ego battle I'm having about Watkins. Deep down inside I still believe that Whaley gave up the farm for this guy - but logic says he's a great player who is still getting better.

B) A lot of what put the Bills at the top was the lopsided plays all in the Jets game. I think this stat may change drastically for them after 5 or 6 more games.

C) Although I hate Billick and don't like that he thinks this way (that he describes in this article), I did find the article interesting and thought it made some sense.

But who cares what I think? LOL. I know the answer.

Re: Bills Toxic

If the Bills make the playoffs, the price for Watkins drops significantly & there is no question about his value.

Re: Bills Toxic

This is pretty cool. I haven't heard of this before, but Billick is a pretty smart football guy.

With the way our defense is playing and having a guy like Watkins on offense, I would expect our explosive play differential to remain strong. I think turnovers have a significant amount of luck and unpredictability though. So I don't think we can just assume that our turnover ratio will continue to be this good. It will be interesting to see how things play out though. I'm looking forward to tracking this each week going forward. I'm assuming Billick will update this every week now.

Re: Bills Toxic

Agree with you entirely.

Fans see what they want to see usually. I'm thinking the opposite, that we're in for another 2011 like slide in the second half and headed towards 8-8 if we're fortunate ourselves. The teams we've beaten are not good and aren't going anywhere and we barely beat three of them. The last two wins may very well be the worst two teams in the entire league. If not then they're both close to it. You have to look at what goes into stats like that too although many people don't.

Miami's worst game has been against us, they've played better against GB and NE than they did against us. I don't think that game is going to be easy for us. Oakland and the Jets are the only two teams that are worse than we are on our remaining schedule. Miami's comparable, Cleveland is comparable at worst and may be better, they'll have Gordon back for that game too, GB, NE, Denver, and KC are all better teams.

A lot of the stuff in that piece is overrated because of the Jets game in which we put up the fewest yards but over twice the amount of points on average that we usually have otherwise. That's not something you want to ignore when factoring all this stuff up.

Re: Bills Toxic

The more fun that I have watching Watkins, the less I care what we paid to get him. That's my....

Re: Bills Toxic

The price has already been paid- it can't drop or rise.

What drops is the difference between what we paid for him and his actual value.

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btw, how many different HAMMERS do we have here?

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I don't have the attention span to read that article and try to understand it. can someone explain what toxic differential is in 1-2 sentences?

Re: Bills Toxic

You're right about the TO ratio, but most of our TOs have come against the Jets, 1/3 of them in 8 games. We had none against SD or NE and we face four teams more on their caliber and with QBs like them, including NE again.

Minnesota, the Jets, Houston, Chicago and even Detroit are all ranked in the top 12 for offensive INTs. 2/3 of our TOs have been INTs.

Denver, GB, NE, Cleveland, and KC all rank in the bottom 10 teams for offensive INTs. Only Oakland and the Jets rank in the range of teams that we've gotten most of our TOs against. Even so, we struggled to win in three of those five wins where we had 7 total TOs. Once on a last-second FG, once on a last-second TD, neither of which teams had better talent than us on the field in those games, and once in OT.

Those predicting playoffs or even a winning record may want to prepare themselves for a dose of reality coming up.

Re: Bills Toxic

Fun to watch is one thing, making the best moves as a GM in building a playoff caliber team is entirely another.

To start, I think that this is going to hit home a little bit more if our 1st-round pick next season is a mid-high rounder and there's a good QB available.

Secondly, who are the best WRs in the game today, or have been? I'd say Andre Johnson being one, Calvin Johnson being another. Detroit has made the playoffs once and otherwise has performed worse than we have. Is or will Watkins be as good as CJ? I doubt it. He hasn't made that impact over there.

Same with Andre, he's been with the Texans almost since their inception but they're track record as a team isn't much better than our despite having had better and more consistent QBs, WRs, and RBs.

It's never about one player. We'll see at the end of the season. There aren't any other challengers to ROPY besides WRs, so if Watkins doesn't get that by a significant margin then it's going to be a difficult argument that he was worth two additional key picks next season over say Benjamin, who was available with our original pick, and those picks back.

Right now he's had four poor games against the Pats, Chargers, Houston, and Chicago. He's had great games against Minnesota, the Jets, and Miami. He played OK against Detroit. His ypr was very low prior to this last game which concerns me. He's putting up slot receiver ypr but he hasn't been playing the slot.

I'm definitely waiting to see more, like him playing well against some of the playoff teams on our schedule.

Re: Bills Toxic

Toxic differential is basically a number, which is arrived at by adding a team's net takeaways with a team's net number of plays that went for at least 20-yards.

So the Bills have forced 18 turnovers and turned the ball over 11 times: 18-11 = 7, so that that's half of it.

The Bills have had 35 offensive plays of 20-yards or more, and they've defensively allowed their opponents 22 plays of 20-yards or more: 35-22 = 13, and there is the other half of it.

Add the two categories together, 7 + 13, and the Bills' toxic differential is +20.

Got that, ya lazy bastard?

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big plays offensively generated (20+ yards or more) - big plays defensively given up (TO)= number.

that number = + ----> you are doing a good job
that number = - ------> you are doing a bad job.

essentially every big play you have defensively should be met with a big play offensively.

bills get a crap load of turnovers. watkins is doing well. bills are the best in that category.

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Didn't take long for the Douchers to come swarming. God forbid anyone enjoy a positive stat.

Re: Bills Toxic

and if they don't, if sure your doucheyness will be there to remind them. We'll also thank you for a season of constant reminders, even in the face of adversity.