Zone Exclusive: Significant Figures: On The Bye

Weekly article from BillsZone writer, psubillsfan

This column will typically consist of statistical analysis of the Buffalo Bills’ upcoming opponent. However, since the Bills’ players will mainly be fighting the urge to sleep in this coming week, I’ll use the space on the server to wax poetic about the previous game as well as Buffalo’s overall stats to date.

Game against the Giants:

2 – turnovers. There’s not much else to say here. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw two poor passes right to Corey Webster. Nobody knows how much the first interception affected the game. However, based on field position it would seem that the second pick ended up being at least a six point swing in favor of the Giants. The Bills lost the first game of the season where they didn’t win the turnover battle, but it was extremely competitive.

3 – 0 – sacks by Giants and sacks by Bills. Eli Manning’s dry cleaners have an easy job this week, as the New York QB came out of the game as unscathed as his backup David Carr. I’m pretty sure even a CSI team couldn’t confirm with absolute certainty that the Bills were even on the field for the Giants’ passing plays. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s offensive line finally allowed multiple sacks in a game to one of the best pass-rushing teams in the league.

0 – three and outs by the Buffalo offense. Granted, there was a four and out on the Bills’ last drive of the game. However, they managed to get at least one first down on every other drive of the game. I find that to be very impressive – especially when one of those drives starts with a ten yard sack – and a sign thatBuffalo’s offense is surging, as opposed to the perception that it’s petering out. In fact, Buffalo’s offensive output in terms of points has increased each week since theCincinnatigame from 13, to 23, to 24.

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Season to date:

If you had told me prior to the season that one Buffalo unit was top 10 and the other was bottom 10, I would have guessed that defense was the former and offense the latter. After all, so much new personnel had been introduced to the Bills’ defense, while the offense traded away one of its top wide receivers and made few to no apparent improvements.

However, the numbers tell an interesting tale, one that nobody could have expected entering the season. If the stats are a reflection of any one thing, I’d have to say it was coaching. Chan Gailey has impressed as an offensive mind, while George Edwards has been a severe disappointment with regards to every facet of the defense. The following numbers for the season may be slightly obscure, but I hope to shed light on the Buffalo Bills from slightly different angles. Current NFL ranks in parentheses after description of the statistic. Starting with the defense:

5.1 – yards per run against our defense (29, tied). This is one of the most frustrating statistics in my mind this year. Mostly because it doesn’t accurately reflect the improvement fromBuffalo’s defense that I see on the field. Last season the Bills consistently gave up 5-6 yard runs nearly every time. This year, they’re doing a decent job of holding teams in the run game, butBuffalois giving up just a couple too many big runs every game to bring the yards per carry average up. That theory is supported by the fact that they’ve given up 9 runs for over 20 yards, which is tied for 30th in the league. In the end, it is what it is, and the Bills need to improve with regards to stopping big gains, especially on draw plays and reverses, which killed their averages in the first few games.

39 – percentage of third downs converted by opposing offenses (17). It is a fairly average value that will hopefully improve along with the pass rush. Unfortunately, the Bills are tied with two other teams in allowing 100% of 4th downs to be converted:MiamiandIndianapolis.

6.6 – yards per play given up to opposing offenses (31). This is simply a number that shows how poorBuffalo’s run and pass defense is in terms of average yards per play. The most yards per play allowed last year wasJacksonville, who averaged 6.3 YPP allowed.

63.1 – completion percentage for opposing quarterbacks (21). The value is slightly lower than I was expecting. Strangely enough,Buffalo’s defense has the exact same ranking in yards per attempt – 7.8 (21) – and attempts per game – 37.0 (21). However, all of these combine to give 284.8 yards per game, which is 30th in the league. This is because the teams allowing similar or more yards per attempt actually have much fewer attempts per game against them. I have to think the potency of the Bills’ offense leads to opposing teams attempting more passes.

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sounds like the D needs some upgrades......

We all thought the D would be so much better and in some ways we are, but in the process of upgrading our D we shifted exposure to other D weaknesses that will need to be addressed this offeseason

We definitely need to draft a CB. McGee is fragile and Florence and McKelvin are inconsistent. Hopefully Williams locks down a spot in the future but this is an area that needs to be solidified.

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Originally Posted by King Bedard

We definitely need to draft a CB. McGee is fragile and Florence and McKelvin are inconsistent. Hopefully Williams locks down a spot in the future but this is an area that needs to be solidified.

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Agreed. Based on our needs and Nix's previous drafting history, I'd strongly expect a CB in round 1. Almost guarantee we'll take one within the first two rounds.

Unless theres a solid FA addition.

I love this write up, thank you PSU!!