Every game is important in the NFL, at least that’s what they tell me. However, there does not seem to be any question that the upcoming game against the Jets has an increased air of urgency about it for the Bills. Fans know it and I can guarantee the coaches and players realize it.

Last year, the Jets absolutely embarrassed the Bills, thanks to a potent running game. Rex Ryan’s squad put up 549 rushing yards in two games on 99 carries – that equates to 5.55 yards per carry. Not only did the green machine put up yards, they did it with their backups and backups’ backups, in Week 17, including current Bill Brad Smith. I’m pretty sure I saw even Rex Ryan carry the ball for 10 yards at one point.

Buffalo showcased an improved run defense just last week against the Redskins. At home the Bills are poised to make a statement against a team that has not run the ball well at all this year, but did seem to improve just before their bye week. No matter how bad they appear, the Jets always seem to run the ball well against Buffalo and stopping them would be a huge step in the right direction.

People who have read my previous columns know that I like to talk about the run. I do tend to address numbers against the run the most. First of all, they are generally more consistent than passing numbers. Second, I still believe that the run game is where teams win and lose, outside of rare exceptions (cough, Peyton Manning). Third, run defense is something the Bills have obviously tried to address in the last couple of years, so it behooves any number-cruncher to investigate how they are doing overall.

Anyway, let’s hit the meat of the article – the numbers surrounding the game and why they are important. As always, national ranking is in parentheses.

3.7 – average yards per run of the Jets’ offense (28). This is a number I tend to use every week, YPC because it is an important one. Buffalo on the year has allowed 4.9 YPC on defense (27). However, both teams have done better recently than their seasonal averages indicate. During 7 of the last 8 quarters (4th quarter of the Giants game was excluded), Buffalo has held their opponents to 2.6 YPC. In their game before the bye week, the Jets averaged 5.2 YPC against a good run defense in San Diego. Which recent trend will dominate?

25 – number of receptions for New York’s leading receiver, Dustin Keller. Buffalo has had a lot of difficulties covering tight ends both this year and in years past. Mark Sanchez has a great connection with Keller and will continue to look there against Buffalo. The former Purdue player could be dangerous for Buffalo, especially if the Jets utilize play-action passes.

17 – sacks given up by the Jets on offense (16T). Jets are middle of the road in giving up sacks. While Buffalo’s total rose promisingly last Sunday, do not expect to see many sacks on Mark Sanchez. The Jets are very strong at two of the positions that Buffalo took advantage of in playing against Washingon: left tackle (D’Brickashaw Ferguson) and center (Nick Mangold). Dareus will get a huge test if he stays at DT against New York.

54.1 – completion percentage allowed by Jets’ defense (5). A clash of efficiencies meet in Buffalo as Ryan Fitzpatrick has completed 67.7 percent of his passes this year for a 97.8 quarterback rating. The Jets are swallowing up the pass, only allowing 4 passing touchdowns on the year while nabbing 11 interceptions. Ryan Fitzpatrick absolutely must take care of the ball.

Overall, the Jets appear to be an average team, especially when it comes to run offense and defense. Their strength is obviously pass defense. Buffalo must be able to run the ball well, but also take advantage of personnel groupings. San Diego ran very efficiently against New York and forced Rex Ryan to beef up the interior at one point. Run the ball to set up the pass.

Gailey will continue to spread the field horizontally. The secondary receivers will be important and it is very good that Donald Jones should play. That moves David Nelson back to the slot where he should be able to thrive. It’s entirely possible the Jets will use Cromartie against Nelson even in the slot to try and negate the height advantage Buffalo would normally have in those situations.

Everything in this game starts and ends with the run game. Buffalo needs to be able to show the nation that they can indeed stop the run as the Jets move back to their ground and pound philosophy. At the same time, they have to be able to get Fred Jackson going on offense, as that should help open up the passing game. Basically, the Bills need to keep doing what they’ve been doing on offense while continuing to improve on defense.

On one last note, I would like to point out that Fred Jackson has 74 more rushing yards than the entire Jets team.

Prediction: Bills 23, Jets 14

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This column will typically consist of statistical analysis of the Buffalo Bills’ upcoming opponent. However, since the Bills’ players will mainly be fighting the urge to sleep in this coming week, I’ll use the space on the server to wax poetic about the previous game as well as Buffalo’s overall stats to date.

 Game against the Giants:

 2 – turnovers. There’s not much else to say here. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw two poor passes right to Corey Webster. Nobody knows how much the first interception affected the game. However, based on field position it would seem that the second pick ended up being at least a six point swing in favor of the Giants. The Bills lost the first game of the season where they didn’t win the turnover battle, but it was extremely competitive.

 3 – 0 – sacks by Giants and sacks by Bills. Eli Manning’s dry cleaners have an easy job this week, as the New York QB came out of the game as unscathed as his backup David Carr. I’m pretty sure even a CSI team couldn’t confirm with absolute certainty that the Bills were even on the field for the Giants’ passing plays. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s offensive line finally allowed multiple sacks in a game to one of the best pass-rushing teams in the league.

 0 – three and outs by the Buffalo offense. Granted, there was a four and out on the Bills’ last drive of the game. However, they managed to get at least one first down on every other drive of the game. I find that to be very impressive – especially when one of those drives starts with a ten yard sack – and a sign thatBuffalo’s offense is surging, as opposed to the perception that it’s petering out. In fact, Buffalo’s offensive output in terms of points has increased each week since theCincinnatigame from 13, to 23, to 24.

 Season to date:

 If you had told me prior to the season that one Buffalo unit was top 10 and the other was bottom 10, I would have guessed that defense was the former and offense the latter. After all, so much new personnel had been introduced to the Bills’ defense, while the offense traded away one of its top wide receivers and made few to no apparent improvements.

 However, the numbers tell an interesting tale, one that nobody could have expected entering the season. If the stats are a reflection of any one thing, I’d have to say it was coaching. Chan Gailey has impressed as an offensive mind, while George Edwards has been a severe disappointment with regards to every facet of the defense. The following numbers for the season may be slightly obscure, but I hope to shed light on the Buffalo Bills from slightly different angles. Current NFL ranks in parentheses after description of the statistic. Starting with the defense:

 5.1 – yards per run against our defense (29, tied). This is one of the most frustrating statistics in my mind this year. Mostly because it doesn’t accurately reflect the improvement fromBuffalo’s defense that I see on the field. Last season the Bills consistently gave up 5-6 yard runs nearly every time. This year, they’re doing a decent job of holding teams in the run game, butBuffalois giving up just a couple too many big runs every game to bring the yards per carry average up. That theory is supported by the fact that they’ve given up 9 runs for over 20 yards, which is tied for 30th in the league. In the end, it is what it is, and the Bills need to improve with regards to stopping big gains, especially on draw plays and reverses, which killed their averages in the first few games.

 39 – percentage of third downs converted by opposing offenses (17). It is a fairly average value that will hopefully improve along with the pass rush. Unfortunately, the Bills are tied with two other teams in allowing 100% of 4th downs to be converted:MiamiandIndianapolis.

 6.6 – yards per play given up to opposing offenses (31). This is simply a number that shows how poorBuffalo’s  run and pass defense is in terms of average yards per play. The most yards per play allowed last year wasJacksonville, who averaged 6.3 YPP allowed.

 63.1 – completion percentage for opposing quarterbacks (21). The value is slightly lower than I was expecting. Strangely enough,Buffalo’s defense has the exact same ranking in yards per attempt – 7.8 (21) – and attempts per game – 37.0 (21). However, all of these combine to give 284.8 yards per game, which is 30th in the league. This is because the teams allowing similar or more yards per attempt actually have much fewer attempts per game against them. I have to think the potency of the Bills’ offense leads to opposing teams attempting more passes.

 The Bills’ defense is exactly what the numbers say – bottom of the league. Only one number indicates a good defense, and it is the same number that has contributed heavily to their current winning record: 12 interceptions (1). As baffling as this number may be, combined with the other numbers it indicates thatBuffalo’s defense is all or nothing. They either get the picks or they get picked apart. The defensive unit really needs to be repaired over the bye week, particularly the pass rush, which only has 4 sacks on the season (32).

 Now we get to talk about the Bills’ offense, which has obviously exceeded everyone’s expectations for the season and shows no signs of stopping despite numerous injuries. The stats tell a story similar to what people are seeing on the field.

 31.3 – points per game scored (2). While Gailey’s team sits ninth in the league in yards per game, they are putting up points very efficiently. The offense has really been the saving grace compared to the defense. Given that the defense is allowing 24.5 points per game (31), the Bills are winning by a touchdown on average. That is mostly thanks to the stomping of the Chiefs in the first week, of course.

5.2 – yards per run (2). The Bills are 6th in the league in yards per play with 6.1, and the run game is a huge part of that. While the run game has come back down to earth slightly in the last few weeks, it’s still producing at a high level and now big plays are keeping that average high rather than consistent yardage.

 7.3 – yards per passing attempt (15). While the Bills aren’t a downfield passing team, they’ve done enough of it this year to keep their YPA reasonably high. Catch and runs like Naaman Roosevelt’s 60-yarder against the Giants certainly help.

 21.8 – first downs per game (6). This is five more first downs per game than last year, despite the fact that Buffalo’s third down conversion percentage, 40 (14), is not significantly better than last year’s. That could be due to getting more third down opportunities (i.e. more possessions per game) or getting more first downs off of first or second down instead of third. It seems to be to be a combination of the two. The time of possession increase, from 28:36 per game in 2010 to 31:21 each week in 2011, indicates the Bills are indeed getting more possessions.

 I’d be remiss to ignore the most important stat, the +9 turnover margin. At this point, most everyone seems to be aware that that is contributing significantly toBuffalo’s success, especially compared to last year’s turnover margin of -17.

 The statistics seem to tell the story of the Bills’ season pretty accurately. Offensively, they’ve been one of the top teams in the league, but defensively they need some significant improvement.

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